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Anyone buying stocks right now?


DCG
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Over the summer and fall, I've been loading up on this awesome little security that is waaaaay out of favour.  It shows up on my brokerage statement under the ticker symbol CASH.  Do your own research, but I think it's a no-brainer.   ;D ;D ;D

 

SJ

 

;D ;D ;D

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Over the summer and fall, I've been loading up on this awesome little security that is waaaaay out of favour.  It shows up on my brokerage statement under the ticker symbol CASH.  Do your own research, but I think it's a no-brainer.   ;D ;D ;D

 

SJ

 

Amen! Deciding to take no action is an action by itself. Even better it does not cost any of this CASH and gives you some of this TIME everybody wants ;)

 

In march I was reading 90% financial reports and 10% learning management/finance/economics. I just switched to 90% learning and 10% financial reports.

 

Real estate has 3 key words, location location location. Investing has 3 key words, discipline discipline discipline.

 

BeerBaron

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Over the summer and fall, I've been loading up on this awesome little security that is waaaaay out of favour.  It shows up on my brokerage statement under the ticker symbol CASH.  Do your own research, but I think it's a no-brainer.  ;D ;D ;D

 

SJ

 

SJ, you had me going for a while. Spent a few minutes looking into CASH-Q before I realised your joke!  :D Just out of curiosity, have you been trimming your preferred positions?

 

OEC

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I'm having a hard time finding any great companies cheap enough to buy right now. Anyone on here buy anything lately, or what companies are on your close radar?

 

To answer your question, yes. I'm buying everyday. Consider that Warren Buffet as far back as October 2008 was willing to shift from treasuries to stocks when the S&P was at the exact same spot as today. He said if stocks stay at these levels much longer I will be buying. Well, I think 1 year is at these levels for a while now. It is unbelievable (to me anyway) that people are saying there are no bargains to find when stocks are very likely to outperform cash and bonds over the next decade at least. What difference does it make if you buy now or on some 20% pull back which may or may not come? The question becomes when to pull the trigger, it seems now is as good a time as any.

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In spite of the recession, there are steady growth markets.  I'll bet that you drive your car more often than you shave and Gillette has a pretty good business in razor parts.  Cars are on the road longer and have a longer lifespan than in the past.  Have a look at the bargains in auto parts wholesale and retail such as 9.5% earnings yields, 13-20% RoCE annually.  In spite of my insurance company investments, I prefer a steady 13-20% to a lumpy 15% and get even more excited when the market misprices the steady growers.  My shotgun is reloading now after firing earlier this year for a 37.5% gain.

 

People still drive and their cars are an essential consumer item because of how North America has structured its living spaces -- few people can walk to all of their daily necessities -- work, groceries, school, recreation, entertainment, etc.  It's even counter-cyclical since fewer people are buying new cars, except for that silly Cash for Clunkers blip -- mortgaging your new car with your grandchildren's earning power.

 

Do your due diligence since they're not all equal.  Some are more heavily weighted to heavy transport than consumer auto, some are mis-capitalized, some have poor relations with their retailers, and there are gems.  A basket is good, but you can do better if you dig.

 

-O

I'm having a hard time finding any great companies cheap enough to buy right now. Anyone on here buy anything lately, or what companies are on your close radar?

 

To answer your question, yes. I'm buying everyday. Consider that Warren Buffet as far back as October 2008 was willing to shift from treasuries to stocks when the S&P was at the exact same spot as today. He said if stocks stay at these levels much longer I will be buying. Well, I think 1 year is at these levels for a while now. It is unbelievable (to me anyway) that people are saying there are no bargains to find when stocks are very likely to outperform cash and bonds over the next decade at least. What difference does it make if you buy now or on some 20% pull back which may or may not come? The question becomes when to pull the trigger, it seems now is as good a time as any.

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Over the summer and fall, I've been loading up on this awesome little security that is waaaaay out of favour.  It shows up on my brokerage statement under the ticker symbol CASH.  Do your own research, but I think it's a no-brainer.   ;D ;D ;D

 

SJ

 

SJ, you had me going for a while. Spent a few minutes looking into CASH-Q before I realised your joke!  :D Just out of curiosity, have you been trimming your preferred positions?

 

OEC

 

 

Yes, I trimmed a few of my "least preferred" shares over the early summer (and then they continued to rise ??? ???).  In particular, I dumped my entire holding in CCS-C and EPP-A as I felt that they no longer offered a sufficient return to compensate me for the risk involved (dividend yield is now south of 7% and you can get Canadian bank preferreds at around 6%), as there is a reasonable possibility of financial failure for each.  When I entered the position, they struck me as obviously mispriced, and I had margined modestly to seize the opportunity.  After a couple of healthy dividends and a solid capital gain, I was happy to dump them.

 

To date, I maintain my preferred positions in ORH-A, HBC- and WFC-L, and feel no immediate need to chop them.  My guess is that ORH-A will be repurchased over the next year.

 

Overall, I consider the market to be fairly valued with the S&P500 PE ratio around ~15-16.  At that level, prospective returns for the next decade might average 8-9%.  That's ok, but I hold the view that we've not yet unwound the credit bubble and I speculate that we will see the economy head south rather than north over the next year.  At some point there may be an opportunity to jump on some seriously mispriced securities.  I want to have some cash in hand for that opportunity (I am currently about 13% cash).

 

 

SJ

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I am close to fully invested due to positions in certain distressed/formerly distressed equities -- they're deep value style positions.  So I'm not buying anything at the moment.  However, I am hoping that there will be catalysts for these stocks due to earnings reports and possible M&A activity that will help me realize the value in these positions. 

 

What's on my radar now is anything to do with agriculture -- fertilizer companies, ag commodity distributors, etc.  I bought some of this sector a couple months ago.  If I can release some cash from my deep value positions due to a catalyst, it is likely that I will add more if things still stay cheap.

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txlaw:

 

You might want to look into these. 15% PIK yield, & at least you still get to eat if you screw up!

http://www.monfortedairy.com/monforte-subscription-offering.html

 

Cheers

SD

 

 

Haha, awesome!  ;D  The Brick O' Cheese plan looks pretty appealing.

 

Who knows?  In a couple of years, we might be watching "Flip That Cheese" instead of "Flip That House" on TLC.

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  • 1 year later...

Bumping this thread (especially since the BH thread is quickly turning into a list of what people are looking at buying, and not related to BH). Anyone buying anything?

 

Some of the main stocks I'm keeping an eye on haven't come down very much, namely LOW and PAYX.

 

I'm considering adding to positions in AAPL, GOOG, XOM, FFH, DECK & SNDK.

 

Also keeping an eye on FCX and EXC.

 

Also, I generally don't like CSC, but it is getting damn cheap. Selling for just over twice it's cash. Might look to buy calls if it keeps coming down.

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I bought ATPG calls today, basically I figure its my last chance to buy at below $20 prior to the permit. Its a trade, which should be sold on any rally.

 

I want FTR, and a few other things. Buying something down 5% when I was expecting a 10% correction pre Japan isnt exciting. Things need to get a lot cheaper.

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To answer your question, yes. I'm buying everyday. Consider that Warren Buffet as far back as October 2008 was willing to shift from treasuries to stocks when the S&P was at the exact same spot as today.

 

 

No opinion whether it's a good time to buy stocks now or not.  (Sort of depends on the individual stocks.)  However, I think you might be a little off on your S&P levels in October 2008.

 

Warren published his Buy American piece on October 16, 2008  -- http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html

 

On October 16, 2008, the S&P opened at 909.53, hit a high of 947.71, hit a low of 865.53 and closed at 946.43.  October 1, 2008 opened at 1164.17 and closed at 1161.06.  On September 22, 2008, the S&P opened at the 1255 level before falling to a close at 1207.

 

Remember, Warren is very precise in the way that he speaks and/or answers questions.  His exact words are: "So ... I’ve been buying American stocks." and "If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities."

 

The only conclusions that we can draw from what he wrote in that New York Times Op-Ed are that (1) he had bought American stocks prior to October 16, 2008 (-- possibly as early as September 22, 2008 but uncertain) and (2) as of the date of publication, if stocks continued their fall, he'd be 100% in U.S. equities.

 

Of course, as of the date of publication, the price of the S&P was roughly 28% lower than the current level.  So, if we're using October 16 as the reference date, then Buffett's Wilshire to GNP metric would be sub-70%.  Also, if we're using October 1 as the reference date, then Buffett's Wilshire to GNP metric would be sub-80%. (Rough numbers, and I know that total market cap is different than Wilshire...)  I think we're still at 90% or so, and if I remember Buffett's metrics correctly, sub-80 is where he indicated broad markets would be undervalued.

 

Again though -- it's the cheapness of the individual securities that are within your circle of competence that matters and not the broader level of the markets.

 

FWIW, I was actually fortunate enough to be worried about oil prices two weeks ago and went 87% cash.  (Better to be lucky than smart.)  So far, I've seen a few things that are intriguing, but they haven't been cheap enough for me to pull the trigger.

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To answer your question, yes. I'm buying everyday. Consider that Warren Buffet as far back as October 2008 was willing to shift from treasuries to stocks when the S&P was at the exact same spot as today.

 

 

Of course, as of the date of publication, the price of the S&P was roughly 28% lower than the current level. 

 

The markets have risen 12.5% annualized from the closing price of the day that article was published.  It's been 2.5 years to the day.

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Yes, see Japan thread: MFC, SLF, PD-tsx, MTL - tsx, SSW, GE 2013 options.  Have slowed a bit - need to sell something to make room.

 

I think oil and gas related stocks should continue to do well and drillers, service providers are cheap.

 

Canadian Life insurers are cheap and pay big dividends.  GE will make billions in Japan on reconstruction and work in the Nuclear industry.

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I am looking into Cameco or an index that tracks the uramium producers. The current situation reminds me of last year after the Horizon sinking and the backlash that hit everything oil. Most importantly, China is the primary driver of new nuclear plants and I do not see them slowing down at all as a result of this (yes, they likely will posture to drive uranium pricing lower). Scroll to the bottom of the link to see a summary of who has facilities and who is biulding.

 

www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/n/nuclear-power-plant-world-wide.htm

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I am looking into Cameco or an index that tracks the uramium producers. The current situation reminds me of last year after the Horizon sinking and the backlash that hit everything oil. Most importantly, China is the primary driver of new nuclear plants and I do not see them slowing down at all as a result of this (yes, they likely will posture to drive uranium pricing lower). Scroll to the bottom of the link to see a summary of who has facilities and who is biulding.

 

www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/n/nuclear-power-plant-world-wide.htm

 

I think the two situations are fundamentally different. This situation will likely retard / impair whatever projected uranium growth was predicted. Hearings will be had, old plants shuttered, and new plants put off in Democratic places. Things will continue and nuclear will have a future. But that future will be lessened inmo.

 

Very different then oil which will be drilled come hell or high water. Oil sold off just as significantly as uranium. China can do what they want, but you will loose an election trying to build nuke plants in Japan, Germany, probably most of Europe, and soon possibly the US. India will also likely be a political issue. I am not saying its rationale, but it is what it is. +1 for demand in China - ??? for none dictator / command economies. Seems like crappy odds, or a long long long long long long term bet on ...

 

I would and did just buy oil / gas reserves. Its selling for $100 while trading at prices when oil was $60, with mid east unrest, and increased demand to supplement nuclear power. I know nothing about uranium though and already feel like I understand oil though. ATPG is speculative (its what I bought), but Petrobank is retardedly cheap with safe reserves and potential gamechanger technology.

 

I cleaned up during Horizon, but this my friend is no salad oil situation inmo. Money will be made due to lose money inmo.

 

Mobius - http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=126389

Rogers - http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=126388

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Viking, If you are looking at Uranium, you can surely do better than Cameco.  That gang cant manage their way out of a paper bag.  Some former government concerns do well after privatization, some dont.  Cameco hasn't.  It's dead money as far as the eye can see.  This isn't going to help one bit.

 

Have a look at their stock chart. 

 

I have been buying land based oil drillers/service companies for a long time now.  This past week was one of those dips to buy on.  PD, AKT.a, MTL.  IMHO, as Myth says they will be the beneficiaries of all this.

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