Fairfax India new issue

[Junior R]

seems like Canada and India back at the politics...Couple diplomats expelled on each side 

[Dinar]

On 9/30/2024 at 10:49 AM, CharlieMunger said:

Is Fairfax India still considered a PFIC for US tax purposes?

My accountant told me yes two months ago.  

[Viking]

3 hours ago, TB said:

Canada hints at sanctions against India; @Viking and other bulls, would this impact your investment thesis of FIH or FFH

 

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/canada-hints-at-sanctions-against-india-over-nijjar-killing-foreign-minister-melanie-joly-says-everything-is-on-table/ar-AA1sjAHF

@TB As a general rule, i try and keep politics out of my investing framework, especially for those investments i view as medium to long term holdings. I am following what is going on. As with all my investments, I will follow the facts and fundamentals and make adjustments as needed. 

 

It is the same approach I am taking with the US election.
 

PS: I do not own any Fairfax India today (it is on my watchlist).

Edited October 15, 2024 by Viking

[Junior R]

Sold my FIH position today ...Will re enter after the Canada / India dispute is completed

[Xerxes]

The Canada-India dispute and comments on FIH, reminds of how Buffett in his letter kept reminding his BRK investors of the nature of insurance business and that when bad news come, is not the time to acknowledge that it is inherently risky. 
 

FIH invest fully in the Indian market all 100% of equity capital. One should always expect to encounter roadblocks, tailwinds and headwinds for a fast growing foreign market with massive potential, aspirations and many pitfall along the way to keep things interesting. 

[Xerxes]

Masayoshi Son invested less than $100 million into a growing, foreign country during the dying days of Deng Xiapoing era. 
 

At some point it was worth $200 billion, and I think he sold in various transactions at somewhere around $70 billion, half century later. 
 

There were many reasons for the Japanese investor to liquidate his position anytime over 20 years as an investor in emerging market. Tons.
 

Looks easy in hindsight. 

[Haryana]

Can Prem Watsa be Credibly Alleged of Foreign Interference because he got Jason Kenney on the board of Fairfax India? 

 

(LOL) 

 

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/corporate/jason-kenney/ 

 

[Junior R]

17 hours ago, Haryana said:

Can Prem Watsa be Credibly Alleged of Foreign Interference because he got Jason Kenney on the board of Fairfax India? 

 

(LOL) 

 

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/corporate/jason-kenney/ 

 

lol no

[dartmonkey]

Interesting article on Indian social norms: https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/life-in-india-is-a-series-of-bilateral?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

 

He talks about how immensely Indian infrastructure has modernized and improved, while some things like traffic behaviour remain chaotic.

 

Bonus: compliments to our beautiful Bangalore airport.

[MMM20]

"For the Indian government, the stakes could scarcely be higher. India is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, but anyone who thinks New Delhi can afford to alienate the West is delusional. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West, it risks being clubbed together with such adversaries as China, Russia and Iran."

 

Unlocked article https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-india-canada-breakdown-sikh-seperatist-murder-dispute-e74ed8c4?st=fYxjUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Dipesh Patel]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/mr-modi-is-fantastic-prem-watsa-known-as-canadas-warren-buffett-says-india-can-grow-at-10-under-pm-modi/amp_articleshow/114542293.cms

[Haryana]

On 10/24/2024 at 6:31 AM, MMM20 said:

"For the Indian government, the stakes could scarcely be higher. India is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, but anyone who thinks New Delhi can afford to alienate the West is delusional. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West, it risks being clubbed together with such adversaries as China, Russia and Iran."

 

Unlocked article https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-india-canada-breakdown-sikh-seperatist-murder-dispute-e74ed8c4?st=fYxjUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

From the same article - 

 

"For the U.S., which has spent over two decades cultivating closer ties with India, Mr. Trudeau’s showboating approach to a sensitive issue is a textbook case of how not to handle an important partner." 

[gfp]

Q3 results press release -

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/31/2973090/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

[Junior R]

one of these days/months the IPO for the vehicle that holds Bial will IPO and we should see this stock price double which will then add to Fairfax Financial gains

 

Quote

Air cargo seeing phenomenal growth amid Red Sea crisis: BIAL COO Satyaki

 

[dartmonkey]

On 10/31/2024 at 5:13 PM, gfp said:

Q3 results press release -

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/31/2973090/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

Does anyone happen to have a transcript of the Q3 earnings call?

 

[gfp]

I don’t think Fairfax India does conference calls. Just the AGM

[Junior R]

52 week high today in usd 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Given the 7-8% pop in the last week

 

I suppose we either now have to believe that somehow a Trump presidency somehow improves the IPO chances and valuation of BIAL in India 

 

OR 

 

The discount has always been about sentiment. Not fees. Not performance. Not discounting IP0 chances. Sentiment. And only sentiment and sentiment is changing. 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2024 by TwoCitiesCapital

[dartmonkey]

57 minutes ago, Junior R said:

52 week high today in usd 

Yes, a 5 year high even. Hard to believe the share price was $17-18 in October 2017, talk about one extreme to another. But I think that despite being up 15% in the last 2 months, it's still a great deal, at 0.72x book, with a book value that is probably understated in the first place. Requires patience. My biggest holding in terms of percentage of the company owned!

[UK]

I recently bought a small position bellow 15 USD...nothing is better for a good timing as some blind luck I guess:)

[ourkid8]

1 hour ago, UK said:

I recently bought a small position bellow 15 USD...nothing is better for a good timing as some blind luck I guess:)

 

100% agree, I am in the same boat   

[SafetyinNumbers]

They kept the language about best efforts for the Anchorage IPO by September 2025. I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

They kept the language about best efforts for the Anchorage IPO by September 2025. I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

 

There is also a situation progressing where Bangalore needs to start on the second airport before Kempegowda's exclusivity period expires so most likely Anchorage will get the opportunity to develop and operate the 2nd airport on the other side of town.  Airport City development plus traffic roaring back to above pre-COVID peak.  Got some good stuff cooking

 

The potential large bank deal looks like a 2025 announcement.  I'm OK not winning that one.

Edited November 7, 2024 by gfp

[villainx]

Did something happened?

[giulio]

And it is still VERY cheap! Probably their 50+% stake in BIAL covers today's market cap of $2.2B. Get the rest for free. 

Btw I just read some Marval fund letters and surely Ben Watsa shares his father optimism re: India and the investment opportunities there. Worth a read!

 

Best,

G