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Fairfax India new issue


thrifty

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54 minutes ago, hobbit said:

 

yes that's correct and its likely that CSB will get a significant premium for the merger, probably in the range of 80-100%. If not for IDBI deal overhang , CSB would be trading at much higher prices. 

 

Can you explain your reasoning here? I'm not following why investors would be discounting a stock that they expect to rise 80-100% in a likely merger?

 

I would think CSB would be trading HIGHER today due to the speculation for a deal? 

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1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Can you explain your reasoning here? I'm not following why investors would be discounting a stock that they expect to rise 80-100% in a likely merger?

 

I would think CSB would be trading HIGHER today due to the speculation for a deal? 

because of the uncertainty that whether it will be a merger or a forced sale at a discount to intrinsic value to a third party . Indian govt can easily make it contingent that FIH sells CSB before buying IDBI to expedite the transaction and not get it  stuck in too much red tape as a merger would entail. I do not think this scenario will play out but there is a non zero probability that it might. Market hates uncertainty. 

Edited by hobbit
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5 minutes ago, hardcorevalue said:

 

It’s beyond frustrating. I’m getting clients angry at me for FIH instead of an index fund. We need that anchorage IPOl lol 

Lol inda etf 5 year is up over 70%...I think we are closer to IPO maybe sometime in 2025 or early 2026

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, TB said:

Canada hints at sanctions against India; @Viking and other bulls, would this impact your investment thesis of FIH or FFH

 

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/canada-hints-at-sanctions-against-india-over-nijjar-killing-foreign-minister-melanie-joly-says-everything-is-on-table/ar-AA1sjAHF


@TB As a general rule, i try and keep politics out of my investing framework, especially for those investments i view as medium to long term holdings. I am following what is going on. As with all my investments, I will follow the facts and fundamentals and make adjustments as needed. 

 

It is the same approach I am taking with the US election.
 

PS: I do not own any Fairfax India today (it is on my watchlist).

Edited by Viking
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The Canada-India dispute and comments on FIH, reminds of how Buffett in his letter kept reminding his BRK investors of the nature of insurance business and that when bad news come, is not the time to acknowledge that it is inherently risky. 
 

FIH invest fully in the Indian market all 100% of equity capital. One should always expect to encounter roadblocks, tailwinds and headwinds for a fast growing foreign market with massive potential, aspirations and many pitfall along the way to keep things interesting. 

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Masayoshi Son invested less than $100 million into a growing, foreign country during the dying days of Deng Xiapoing era. 
 

At some point it was worth $200 billion, and I think he sold in various transactions at somewhere around $70 billion, half century later. 
 

There were many reasons for the Japanese investor to liquidate his position anytime over 20 years as an investor in emerging market. Tons.
 

Looks easy in hindsight. 

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Interesting article on Indian social norms: https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/life-in-india-is-a-series-of-bilateral?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

 

He talks about how immensely Indian infrastructure has modernized and improved, while some things like traffic behaviour remain chaotic.

 

Bonus: compliments to our beautiful Bangalore airport.

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"For the Indian government, the stakes could scarcely be higher. India is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, but anyone who thinks New Delhi can afford to alienate the West is delusional. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West, it risks being clubbed together with such adversaries as China, Russia and Iran."

 

Unlocked article https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-india-canada-breakdown-sikh-seperatist-murder-dispute-e74ed8c4?st=fYxjUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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On 10/24/2024 at 6:31 AM, MMM20 said:

"For the Indian government, the stakes could scarcely be higher. India is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, but anyone who thinks New Delhi can afford to alienate the West is delusional. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West, it risks being clubbed together with such adversaries as China, Russia and Iran."

 

Unlocked article https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-india-canada-breakdown-sikh-seperatist-murder-dispute-e74ed8c4?st=fYxjUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

From the same article - 

 

"For the U.S., which has spent over two decades cultivating closer ties with India, Mr. Trudeau’s showboating approach to a sensitive issue is a textbook case of how not to handle an important partner." 

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one of these days/months the IPO for the vehicle that holds Bial will IPO and we should see this stock price double which will then add to Fairfax Financial gains

 

Quote

Air cargo seeing phenomenal growth amid Red Sea crisis: BIAL COO Satyaki

 

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