Fairfax India new issue

[Junior R]

17 hours ago, Haryana said:

Can Prem Watsa be Credibly Alleged of Foreign Interference because he got Jason Kenney on the board of Fairfax India? 

 

(LOL) 

 

https://www.fairfaxindia.ca/corporate/jason-kenney/ 

 

lol no

[dartmonkey]

Interesting article on Indian social norms: https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/life-in-india-is-a-series-of-bilateral?utm_source=multiple-personal-recommendations-email&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true

 

He talks about how immensely Indian infrastructure has modernized and improved, while some things like traffic behaviour remain chaotic.

 

Bonus: compliments to our beautiful Bangalore airport.

[MMM20]

"For the Indian government, the stakes could scarcely be higher. India is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, but anyone who thinks New Delhi can afford to alienate the West is delusional. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West, it risks being clubbed together with such adversaries as China, Russia and Iran."

 

Unlocked article https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-india-canada-breakdown-sikh-seperatist-murder-dispute-e74ed8c4?st=fYxjUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Dipesh Patel]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/mr-modi-is-fantastic-prem-watsa-known-as-canadas-warren-buffett-says-india-can-grow-at-10-under-pm-modi/amp_articleshow/114542293.cms

[Haryana]

On 10/24/2024 at 6:31 AM, MMM20 said:

"For the Indian government, the stakes could scarcely be higher. India is in the midst of a partial rapprochement with China, but anyone who thinks New Delhi can afford to alienate the West is delusional. If India is seen as seeking to undermine freedom of speech and rule of law in the West, it risks being clubbed together with such adversaries as China, Russia and Iran."

 

Unlocked article https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-india-canada-breakdown-sikh-seperatist-murder-dispute-e74ed8c4?st=fYxjUC&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

From the same article - 

 

"For the U.S., which has spent over two decades cultivating closer ties with India, Mr. Trudeau’s showboating approach to a sensitive issue is a textbook case of how not to handle an important partner." 

[gfp]

Q3 results press release -

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/31/2973090/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

[Junior R]

one of these days/months the IPO for the vehicle that holds Bial will IPO and we should see this stock price double which will then add to Fairfax Financial gains

 

Quote

Air cargo seeing phenomenal growth amid Red Sea crisis: BIAL COO Satyaki

 

[dartmonkey]

On 10/31/2024 at 5:13 PM, gfp said:

Q3 results press release -

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/31/2973090/0/en/Fairfax-India-Holdings-Corporation-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results.html

Does anyone happen to have a transcript of the Q3 earnings call?

 

[gfp]

I don’t think Fairfax India does conference calls. Just the AGM

[Junior R]

52 week high today in usd 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

Given the 7-8% pop in the last week

 

I suppose we either now have to believe that somehow a Trump presidency somehow improves the IPO chances and valuation of BIAL in India 

 

OR 

 

The discount has always been about sentiment. Not fees. Not performance. Not discounting IP0 chances. Sentiment. And only sentiment and sentiment is changing. 

 

 

Edited November 7, 2024 by TwoCitiesCapital

[dartmonkey]

57 minutes ago, Junior R said:

52 week high today in usd 

Yes, a 5 year high even. Hard to believe the share price was $17-18 in October 2017, talk about one extreme to another. But I think that despite being up 15% in the last 2 months, it's still a great deal, at 0.72x book, with a book value that is probably understated in the first place. Requires patience. My biggest holding in terms of percentage of the company owned!

[UK]

I recently bought a small position bellow 15 USD...nothing is better for a good timing as some blind luck I guess:)

[ourkid8]

1 hour ago, UK said:

I recently bought a small position bellow 15 USD...nothing is better for a good timing as some blind luck I guess:)

 

100% agree, I am in the same boat   

[SafetyinNumbers]

They kept the language about best efforts for the Anchorage IPO by September 2025. I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

[gfp]

4 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said:

They kept the language about best efforts for the Anchorage IPO by September 2025. I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

 

There is also a situation progressing where Bangalore needs to start on the second airport before Kempegowda's exclusivity period expires so most likely Anchorage will get the opportunity to develop and operate the 2nd airport on the other side of town.  Airport City development plus traffic roaring back to above pre-COVID peak.  Got some good stuff cooking

 

The potential large bank deal looks like a 2025 announcement.  I'm OK not winning that one.

Edited November 7, 2024 by gfp

[villainx]

Did something happened?

[giulio]

And it is still VERY cheap! Probably their 50+% stake in BIAL covers today's market cap of $2.2B. Get the rest for free. 

Btw I just read some Marval fund letters and surely Ben Watsa shares his father optimism re: India and the investment opportunities there. Worth a read!

 

Best,

G

[Junior R]

I think I know why this jumped yesterday

Quote

Celebrating +5 yrs of the Marval Guru Fund! Our 5yr 21.9% net CAGR (as of Sept. 30, 2024) ranks 6th among >3,000 institutional funds in hashtag#Canada which is a testament to hashtag#India. Deep gratitude to people of India, our clients, and team.

 

Quote

The Fund's five-year net compound annual returns of 21.9% means that invested capital doubled approximately every three and a half years. The Fund is currently the only India-focused fund in Canada with such a strong track record. In an investment world that often focuses on short-term gains and frequent trading, Marval has demonstrated the Fund's long-term, buy-and-hold investment strategy remains highly effective. 

 

marval-capital-s-india-focused-fund-with-169-total-net-return-over-5-years-outperforms-global-competitors

Edited November 8, 2024 by Junior R

[gfp]

Sorry I had to shut that rally down by channelling my inner Bruce.  My apologies to the Johnny-come-latelies.

[This2ShallPass]

Is that Fairfax India making a move? Wow finally

 

On 11/7/2024 at 9:57 AM, SafetyinNumbers said:

I don’t think it would be that surprising if someone in India had an informational edge. 

Doubt it, the timing is an election driven rally, probably tied to Trumps' pro India messages (we all know he'll flip on a dime, but will take the 8% pop!).

 

On 11/7/2024 at 10:02 AM, gfp said:

The potential large bank deal looks like a 2025 announcement.  I'm OK not winning that one.

This one is mostly done, the optics of a Canadian company winning one of the high profile deals will be too much for Modi govt. I'm also ok with not winning this one, too big for FFI.

Edited November 9, 2024 by This2ShallPass

[gfp]

On 11/8/2024 at 10:50 AM, gfp said:

Sorry I had to shut that rally down by channelling my inner Bruce.  My apologies to the Johnny-come-latelies.

 

None shall pass!

[backtothebeach]

Already bounced back...something is going on with FIH.U.

[gfp]

1 minute ago, backtothebeach said:

Already bounced back...something is going on with FIH.U.

 

It is usually so illiquid.  Any new interest will move the price in the short term.  The speculation here that it was Indian ex-pats buying on the perception of a great Modi-Trump relationship sounded plausible.  But the Indian markets have been down lately.  The airport is a hit so it doesn't matter to FIH.U but I'm selling these newcomers stock every time they bid it into the upper 16's

[giulio]

108K shares were bought back and canceled in October. Max price paid $15.

https://www.sedi.ca/sedi/SVTItdSelectIssuer?locale=en_CA