This2ShallPass Posted March 14 Posted March 14 On 2/7/2026 at 3:49 PM, This2ShallPass said: Looks like IDBI stock is up 40% in last 12 months, that's why Kotak is not bidding. Hopefully we didn't bid with a premium (but don't see how it'll be approved without one). Not sure all cash transaction makes sense either when there doesn't seem to be other bidders.. Market value of IDBI being much higher than when the process started seems to be the issue, good Fairfax maintained their discipline.
This2ShallPass Posted March 14 Posted March 14 On 12/13/2025 at 11:56 AM, This2ShallPass said: This is a good analogy and something they might be able to do post Anchorage IPO. Follow the same Prosus / Tencent model. Even without the IPO, BIAL value will increase, they have started marking up BV this year and will continue for a while. FIH price will follow (discount will likely persist though). BIAL net unrealized gains in 2025 Q1 - $3.5M Q2 - $6M Q3 - $160M Q4 - $229M $399M total gain in 2025, it's happening! Even without an IPO, BIAL value will continue to go up (significantly) in the coming years and we should see BV increase accordingly. With no IDBI, the big benefit of an IPO is they might be able to sell Anchorage and buyback FFI (which counterintuitively increases % ownership of Anchorage for Fairfax India).
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 15 Posted March 15 (edited) 30 minutes ago, This2ShallPass said: BIAL net unrealized gains in 2025 Q1 - $3.5M Q2 - $6M Q3 - $160M Q4 - $229M $399M total gain in 2025, it's happening! And the stock price is largely unchanged from mid-January 2025. Is why I loaded up in December and increased the position by 50%. I'm disappointed with how the bank turned out. And the delays in the Anchorage IPO - but the value keeps compounding and the market keeps ignoring it. We have clients at my job paying extraordinary fees for private infrastructure investments and here we have one of the crown jewels of the group for nearly free.... Edited March 15 by TwoCitiesCapital
This2ShallPass Posted March 15 Posted March 15 9 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: And the stock price is largely unchanged from mid-January 2025. I have long given up trying to figure out this stocks movement. The high fee structure keeps a lot of investors out. I right sized the position to 5% cost basis last year and bought more earlier this year as I had some cash inflows (to maintain the 5%). From here on out, I'll let them do all the heavy lifting. I won't trim unless something meaningfully bad happens w BIAL. IPO is now what 3-4 years running, so weird. Extending OMERS agreement to Sep'26 is a positive, my guess is they must see some light at the end or they would have just let that agreement expire.
Hoodlum Posted March 16 Posted March 16 IDBI bank stock price is now down over 20% in past 2 days, back to where it was a year ago.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 16 Posted March 16 59 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: IDBI bank stock price is now down over 20% in past 2 days, back to where it was a year ago. Time to restart the bidding process
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 16 Posted March 16 5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: Time to restart the bidding process I think that may be exactly how it works. The reserve price will reset based on the definition. I suspect at some point in the next 6-12 months, the bid will exceed the reserve price and they will be able to transact. I grabbed the below from another post here, I can’t recall who posted it.
jbwent63 Posted March 17 Posted March 17 I was just looking at the change in the value in USD of the 5 public company investments held by FIH. They have dropped approximately $304 million USD ($2.25 per share) on a starting value of $1,220 million (about 25%). This is due in part to the decline of the rupee by about 3%, but the bulk of the decrease is from the INR price of the shares (wtd avg drop of 22.9% in local currency). With the FIH shares trading slightly up on the year, it appears either the price vs book value/intrinsic value is narrowing, or the market believes the non-public investments are making up for the public companies underperformance. For further reference, in local currency, the indexes are down around 10-11% for the YTD. Might be something to watch...creating an opportunity to buy or buyback at lower prices (one can hope).
dartmonkey Posted March 17 Posted March 17 On 3/16/2026 at 1:29 PM, SafetyinNumbers said: I think that may be exactly how it works. The reserve price will reset based on the definition. I suspect at some point in the next 6-12 months, the bid will exceed the reserve price and they will be able to transact. I grabbed the below from another post here, I can’t recall who posted it. That's an interesting way of looking at it. If we speculate that Fairfax's offer might have been the best offered, but not as high as the VWAP in 52 weeks or, more likely, not as high as the highest share price in the past 26 weeks. The bidding process has been going on for years, so if Fairfax offered INR100 a share March 2024, when the shares were trading for INR85, then the recent share price of up to INR115 would disqualify their offer. Now that shares are back down to INR74, their offer might appear good again, but if the above rule is correct, we might need to wait another 6 months before that INR115 price gets to be 6 months in the past. Which maybe also means that they won't be focussing on repurchasing their own shares after all, but it may mean all the time and effort they spent trying to get this bank is not yet completely lost.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 18 Posted March 18 (edited) 16 hours ago, dartmonkey said: That's an interesting way of looking at it. If we speculate that Fairfax's offer might have been the best offered, but not as high as the VWAP in 52 weeks or, more likely, not as high as the highest share price in the past 26 weeks. The bidding process has been going on for years, so if Fairfax offered INR100 a share March 2024, when the shares were trading for INR85, then the recent share price of up to INR115 would disqualify their offer. Now that shares are back down to INR74, their offer might appear good again, but if the above rule is correct, we might need to wait another 6 months before that INR115 price gets to be 6 months in the past. Which maybe also means that they won't be focussing on repurchasing their own shares after all, but it may mean all the time and effort they spent trying to get this bank is not yet completely lost. A bid of 100 INR in 2024 may also mean they're willing to come up to 115 INR today due to growth, retained earnings, etc. so maybe you don't have to wait 6-months Edited March 18 by TwoCitiesCapital
villainx Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) On 3/17/2026 at 6:36 PM, dartmonkey said: Which maybe also means that they won't be focussing on repurchasing their own shares after all, but it may mean all the time and effort they spent trying to get this bank is not yet completely lost. I guess I look at it as more the opportunity cost of reserving cash for a purchase that has demonstrated to be not really certain to happen. Then again, FIH might be in a stronger position in x months too. Edited March 19 by villainx
Madpawn Posted March 19 Posted March 19 Indian likely to restart IDBI privatization from scratch: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/government-likely-to-restart-idbi-bank-privatisation-process-from-scratch/articleshow/129644794.cms?from=mdr It'd be funny if Fairfax ends up buying it for a fair price in next 1-2 years, could also be a big improvement timing wise given BIAL should IPO by Sept. 2026 (fingers crossed)
Hoodlum Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) Here are some details of the reserve price and bids. Both were lower than the market suggested. IDBI shares dropped again today, close to a 2 year low. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/after-2-attempts-govt-fails-to-divest-idbi-bank/amp_articleshow/129666304.cms Those familiar with the sale process said that bidders and transaction advisors estimated the book value of shares at around Rs 55-60, against the reported book value of Rs 67, prompting Kotak Mahindra to back out The reserve price was fixed at over Rs 94 a share - a 41% premium to book value. Regarding the bids by Fairfax and Emirates NBD, which were rejected, one was said to be at 10% discount to the current book value, while the other was at a 10-12% premium. What complicated the matter for the committee of secretaries, which took a call on rejecting the bids, was the market price of IDBI shares, which soared 59% from under Rs 73 a year ago to over Rs 116 on Feb 27. With a 5.3% public float, it did not take significant volumes to be traded for the share to move up or down and market players raised the price in anticipation of the sale. Edited March 19 by Hoodlum
Crip1 Posted March 19 Posted March 19 12 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: Here are some details of the reserve price and bids. Both were lower than the market suggested. IDBI shares dropped again today, close to a 2 year low. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/after-2-attempts-govt-fails-to-divest-idbi-bank/amp_articleshow/129666304.cms Those familiar with the sale process said that bidders and transaction advisors estimated the book value of shares at around Rs 55-60, against the reported book value of Rs 67, prompting Kotak Mahindra to back out The reserve price was fixed at over Rs 94 a share - a 41% premium to book value. Regarding the bids by Fairfax and Emirates NBD, which were rejected, one was said to be at 10% discount to the current book value, while the other was at a 10-12% premium. What complicated the matter for the committee of secretaries, which took a call on rejecting the bids, was the market price of IDBI shares, which soared 59% from under Rs 73 a year ago to over Rs 116 on Feb 27. With a 5.3% public float, it did not take significant volumes to be traded for the share to move up or down and market players raised the price in anticipation of the sale. Full disclosure: This whole topic is well outside of my circle of competence, so I am simply seeking to understand. It seems that the Indian government could simply sell smaller percentages of their holdings on the open market, say, 5-10%/year for a few years. Far less administrative burden for sure and it eliminates the reserve price issue. Thinking it may be that the government wants to control who ultimately owns/runs the bank but, from the outside, the process looks to be ineffective to say the least. -Crip
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Crip1 said: Full disclosure: This whole topic is well outside of my circle of competence, so I am simply seeking to understand. It seems that the Indian government could simply sell smaller percentages of their holdings on the open market, say, 5-10%/year for a few years. Far less administrative burden for sure and it eliminates the reserve price issue. Thinking it may be that the government wants to control who ultimately owns/runs the bank but, from the outside, the process looks to be ineffective to say the least. -Crip This was exactly my thought. They could be dripping extra shares into the market every day. Just be a small % of trade volume - like 5% or less - and announce you're doing it. As the traded float grows - so to does the amount you can drip into the market. And then after 3-5 years you've meaningfully reduced these positions without all this headache - and to the populace no less! Rather than a foreign buyer. Edited March 19 by TwoCitiesCapital
Haryana Posted March 21 Posted March 21 (edited) The (Great Canadian) Globe and Mail thinks Fairfax India is bubble of hot air out of Fairfax, they are calling it "Airfax India". Check it out - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/FFXDF/profile/ Edited April 7 by Haryana added the actual screenshot 1
Hektor Posted March 21 Posted March 21 12 hours ago, Haryana said: The (Great Canadian) Globe and Mail thinks Fairfax India is bubble of hot air out of Fairfax, they are calling it "Airfax India". India investment opportunities Check it out - https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/FFXDF/profile/
Hoodlum Posted March 23 Posted March 23 On 3/19/2026 at 10:05 AM, Crip1 said: Full disclosure: This whole topic is well outside of my circle of competence, so I am simply seeking to understand. It seems that the Indian government could simply sell smaller percentages of their holdings on the open market, say, 5-10%/year for a few years. Far less administrative burden for sure and it eliminates the reserve price issue. Thinking it may be that the government wants to control who ultimately owns/runs the bank but, from the outside, the process looks to be ineffective to say the least. -Crip They are now considering an OFS (Offer for Sale) to add more liquidity and then go back to bidding process again. Not surprisingly, the IDBI stock dropped another 5% on that news. The government seems to be grasping at straws to try and get a higher sale price. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/govt-may-consider-ofs-option-for-raising-public-float-in-idbi-bank/articleshow/129731549.cms?from=mdr The government may consider selling a stake in IDBI Bank through the Offer-for-Sale (OFS) route to increase public shareholding, after the unsuccessful attempt to divest stake in the LIC-controlled lender, sources said. Currently, the public float in IDBI Bank is only 5.29 per cent, limiting the scope of fair valuation. Low free float restricts the scope for fair market valuation, and expanding this to 10 per cent or 15 per cent would make price discovery more reliable, sources said. It can provide a reliable benchmark for valuation and further make the price discovery process transparent, they said, adding, strategic sale can be pursued even after one or two tranches of OFS.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 23 Posted March 23 48 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: They are now considering an OFS (Offer for Sale) to add more liquidity and then go back to bidding process again. Not surprisingly, the IDBI stock dropped another 5% on that news. The government seems to be grasping at straws to try and get a higher sale price. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/govt-may-consider-ofs-option-for-raising-public-float-in-idbi-bank/articleshow/129731549.cms?from=mdr The government may consider selling a stake in IDBI Bank through the Offer-for-Sale (OFS) route to increase public shareholding, after the unsuccessful attempt to divest stake in the LIC-controlled lender, sources said. Currently, the public float in IDBI Bank is only 5.29 per cent, limiting the scope of fair valuation. Low free float restricts the scope for fair market valuation, and expanding this to 10 per cent or 15 per cent would make price discovery more reliable, sources said. It can provide a reliable benchmark for valuation and further make the price discovery process transparent, they said, adding, strategic sale can be pursued even after one or two tranches of OFS. That doesn’t make much sense. Increasing supply has the opposite effect. The more shares that trade at lower prices will reduce the reserve price faster though.
treasurehunt Posted March 23 Posted March 23 5 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: That doesn’t make much sense. Increasing supply has the opposite effect. The more shares that trade at lower prices will reduce the reserve price faster though. Yes, perhaps the government is trying to get the shares to trade at a relatively low price for long enough that there is a good chance of a qualifying bid, and then the sale can go through.
jbwent63 Posted March 31 Posted March 31 On 3/17/2026 at 12:54 PM, jbwent63 said: I was just looking at the change in the value in USD of the 5 public company investments held by FIH. They have dropped approximately $304 million USD ($2.25 per share) on a starting value of $1,220 million (about 25%). This is due in part to the decline of the rupee by about 3%, but the bulk of the decrease is from the INR price of the shares (wtd avg drop of 22.9% in local currency). With the FIH shares trading slightly up on the year, it appears either the price vs book value/intrinsic value is narrowing, or the market believes the non-public investments are making up for the public companies underperformance. Investment Portfolio Review For further reference, in local currency, the indexes are down around 10-11% for the YTD. Might be something to watch...creating an opportunity to buy or buyback at lower prices (one can hope). We have now got the quarter-end closing prices for the 5 public companies. Their value in USD did not change from the comments above. In USD (roughly) the value of these holdings is down $400 million USD from year-end. Almost $3 US per share (assuming no material stock buybacks). As I write this, the FIH shares are trading at $16.41 vs the prior quarter end of $17.29, or about an 88 cent haircut. The BV/P ratio has most likely dropped significantly unless there are gains in non-public investments to make up some of this difference. Or, to put it another way, the discount to BV has narrowed, potentially substantially.
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 1 Posted April 1 My understanding is that Anchorage is used to bid for more airport concessions not BIAL directly as this article speculates. https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/indian-airport-concessions-set-to-restart-bangalore-airport-to-join-the-fray-as-a-bidder-741327
CoGreenwich&Laight Posted April 1 Posted April 1 (edited) As the Annual meeting is coming up, below are some updated figures. Fees paid out to FFH now total $572 million. That compares to market cap added or value created of $778 million. In 11+ years what have shareholders received? ~4.5% compound return. Including G&A fees paid, to subsidize the super-voting shares (50 to 1 vote thus are more valuable), fees paid out now total $648 million. Is it ethical to charge G&A fees pari passu when the value creation is disproportionate? What happens at Berkshire? Should FFH be charging G&A fees on top of Investment & Advisory? In the last three years, FFH has been paid close to $150mm, excl performance fees. They've made ONE new investment, Global Aluminum in late 2024. One. With the panoply of fees, FFH share basis is now negative $0.78 to negative $2.29 depending on how you want to look at it. Shareholders have received nothing. Zero. Does it matter what the fees are if we are getting a good risk adjusted return? or a return as indicated by PW to be expected of 15% net to invest in India? Is it gaslighting by management, and servile rabid mouthpieces on various platforms when touting shareholder friendly buybacks, when for the last two years, the pace has dropped off to anything but significant? Half a percent of shares outstanding per year? Mgmt has issued 149mm shares over 11 years, and 134mm remain outstanding today. Is that much different from the SBC equivalent buybacks criticism against tech companies? Particularly when you shout out value being much higher than book, and the shares trade at a fraction of book? The excuses of low share repurchases due to illiquidity does not hold water...its already there, has been for a while, and wont change. That ship has sailed a while ago. The likelyhood of trading at fair value, to be able to issues shares and enhance liquidity fairly is miniscule. Today the implied value of BIAL in the share price is $380mm, a discount of 80+% to marked value, or higher to theoretical intrinsic value. Should management be doing anything but buying back their own shares, hand over fist? Just interest and dividends added up to over $115mm over the last two years relative to ~$20mm spent on buybacks, never mind Net realized gains of $270mm. With single digit compounding of bvps, relative to the risk, and objectives, have they earned the right to invest elsewhere with the shares trading at perhaps close to 50% or less of intrinsic value? While there are other forward thinking steps to get the shares to fair value, a discussion for another day, no investment they will find could be superior to BIAL at this discount. Silence equates to complicity? Edited April 1 by CoGreenwich&Laight
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 1 Posted April 1 (edited) 16 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: My understanding is that Anchorage is used to bid for more airport concessions not BIAL directly as this article speculates. https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/indian-airport-concessions-set-to-restart-bangalore-airport-to-join-the-fray-as-a-bidder-741327 If Anchorage hasn't IPO'd, not sure they have the capital to make anymore bids. 12 minutes ago, CoGreenwich&Laight said: Is it ethical to charge G&A fees pari passu when the value creation is disproportionate? Is it ethical to report their performance as the share price vs book value when they only control one? CAGR on book value has been 7.9% after the fees and stock based comp you're upset about and is largely agreed to widely understate the actual value/performance of some of the private assets. 12 minutes ago, CoGreenwich&Laight said: In the last three years, FFH has been paid close to $150mm, excl performance fees. They've made ONE new investment, Global Aluminum in late 2024. One. Is investment performance determined by returns? Or how many new investments one makes over time? 12 minutes ago, CoGreenwich&Laight said: Is it gaslighting by management, and servile rabid mouthpieces on various platforms when touting shareholder friendly buybacks, when for the last two years, the pace has dropped off to anything but significant? 2% of the market value is held in cash. Unless if they monetize their investments, or borrow debt, there isn't anything to buyback with. We can debate if they should be selling or borrowing to do it - but you haven't proposed a path to discuss. Just complaining that it isn't being done. Considering the paths available to them would force a confrontation of the pros/cons of each which may lead you to an understanding of why it isn't happening at this time. Significant buy acks DID occur in 2021. And the discount to NAV remained. The management is not responsible for the discount nor are they responsible for closing it as long as they're making reasonable capital allocation decisions in the meantime. 12 minutes ago, CoGreenwich&Laight said: Should management be doing anything but buying back their own shares, hand over fist? Just above you were upset that they had only made one new investment. Now you're upset that they're making any that aren't their own shares? Which is it? As a reminder, you DON'T have to own this. Edited April 1 by TwoCitiesCapital
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