Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[John Hjorth]

1 minute ago, ander said:

Is Ajit selling really a concern given that he's had a long history of selling / gifting? It is of course not a positive signal, and I understand it is a large proportion of what is remaining, but I do not believe it is necessarily a suggestion of impending doom at Berkshire (remember if there is impending doom in the broader market, that is where Berkshire often does the best so one would not want to be a seller of shares right into it).

 

@ander,

 

I with with you on this.

 

But this is CoBF, the place for all kinds of Berkshire enthusiasts and nerds, likely due to overdoing things at times [, but certainly not always, nor on avarage].

 

If it was Greg [ @Gregmal ] posting about it like you , I personally think he would be calling it something like a bit more more than a 'nothing burger', perhaps meaning a 'nothing Big Mac'. 

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

The far more interesting question would be if Berkshire was the buyer of Ajit's shares.

 

I think that's a "no" but we'll probably be able to tell in the next 10Q.  There are several clues, including that it was an average price over multiple transactions on the same day, the high price, the optics of buying shares directly from a reporting insider/vice chairman of the board, and whatever the legal complications Greg references when mentioning that JOE can't buy Bruce's shares directly.  Prem and Fairfax did it, of course, but that may be a Canada thing.

 

BRK never directly bought stock blocks from the Gates Foundation, even though they were known to be a large daily seller of B-shares (and still are).

 

Now, why didn't Ajit convert the A-shares into B-shares before selling?  I'm sure Warren would have preferred that.

[gfp]

20 minutes ago, ander said:

(remember if there is impending doom in the broader market, that is where Berkshire often does the best so one would not want to be a seller of shares right into it).

 

Berkshire the company might prosper in a bear market, but Berkshire the stock goes down a bunch just the same.  Especially if it starts at the high end of its recent valuation range.  Having $300+ billion in t-bills and huge operations in non-economically-sensitive industries (insurance, utilities, etc) will help a lot in a weak period for the global economy / stock market averages / whatever.

[boilermaker75]

20 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

It’s almost exactly $100m after tax. Is there a possiblity that Ajain is buying a huge house?   The most expensive house in CT is around $50m, but there are a lot of big houses in Florida

 

 

With enough left over for a yacht! 

[73 Reds]

26 minutes ago, gfp said:

 

I think that's a "no" but we'll probably be able to tell in the next 10Q.  There are several clues, including that it was an average price over multiple transactions on the same day, the high price, the optics of buying shares directly from a reporting insider/vice chairman of the board, and whatever the legal complications Greg references when mentioning that JOE can't buy Bruce's shares directly.  Prem and Fairfax did it, of course, but that may be a Canada thing.

 

BRK never directly bought stock blocks from the Gates Foundation, even though they were known to be a large daily seller of B-shares (and still are).

 

Now, why didn't Ajit convert the A-shares into B-shares before selling?  I'm sure Warren would have preferred that.

Yep, but an interesting prospect nonetheless.  In any event Ajit certainly advised Buffett of the sale in advance.

[ander]

1 hour ago, gfp said:

 

Berkshire the company might prosper in a bear market, but Berkshire the stock goes down a bunch just the same.  Especially if it starts at the high end of its recent valuation range.  Having $300+ billion in t-bills and huge operations in non-economically-sensitive industries (insurance, utilities, etc) will help a lot in a weak period for the global economy / stock market averages / whatever.

agreed Berkshire stock could go down (which probably not as relevant to Ajit), but intrinsic value likely goes up much more given the position they are in.

[yesman182]

4 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Yep, but an interesting prospect nonetheless.  In any event Ajit certainly advised Buffett of the sale in advance.

I doubt it. 

[UK]

On 9/13/2024 at 3:46 PM, gfp said:

 

Berkshire the company might prosper in a bear market, but Berkshire the stock goes down a bunch just the same.  Especially if it starts at the high end of its recent valuation range.  Having $300+ billion in t-bills and huge operations in non-economically-sensitive industries (insurance, utilities, etc) will help a lot in a weak period for the global economy / stock market averages / whatever.

 

Gfp, do you also think there is a decent chances all these recent moves by BRK and Co could suggest some kind of preparation for a possible troubles in the economy and/or stock market?

[sleepydragon]

Another possibility: Ajain is going through a divorce, and wife wants cash instead of stocks.

 

this explains why it’s roughly 50% of his holdings.

 

Precedence is Jeff Bezo’s ex wife. Sold all Amazon stocks she got too

[Txvestor]

I think he just wanted to get affairs in order and saw a good valuation opportunity and decided to sell. When BRKb shares were approaching $500 and the market cap touched a trillion, and cap gains taxes are the lowest they'll be in the next 20yrs(or within your lifetime) and almost all your sale proceeds are cap gains, if you're a logical individual you'd want to sell atleast a part of your holdings. 

[gfp]

Here's your chance to buy Walter Scott's fishing yacht - bid early bid often!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/late-billionaire-and-berkshire-hathaway-board-members-yacht-ice-bear-heads-to-auction-e939f521

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

Here's your chance to buy Walter Scott's fishing yacht - bid early bid often!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/late-billionaire-and-berkshire-hathaway-board-members-yacht-ice-bear-heads-to-auction-e939f521

 

Caveat emptor!  The creme coloured leather sofa on the aft deck is missing :

 

1. A holder for your phone, so you're able to call your broker, or reply to your spouse, when you're under suspicion for cheating on him or her, while continuing fishing.

2. A holder for your Bloomberg terminal, so you can check and chart your portfolio.

 

Nice barge!

Edited September 18 by John Hjorth

[Pauly]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

Here's your chance to buy Walter Scott's fishing yacht - bid early bid often!

https://www.barrons.com/articles/late-billionaire-and-berkshire-hathaway-board-members-yacht-ice-bear-heads-to-auction-e939f521

 

Now that's a big yacht i wouldn't mind owning. Crossing the Atlantic with 10 friends and a few fishing rods sounds like a good time.

[adventurer]

Any thoughts about how the rate cuts may impact WEBs decision making in the future? He emphasizes that it is all about valuation and whether price is good or not. But I am a bit worried that valuations will now go up even further due to the rate cuts. Valuations will become even crazier it seems...

[gfp]

5 hours ago, adventurer said:

Any thoughts about how the rate cuts may impact WEBs decision making in the future? He emphasizes that it is all about valuation and whether price is good or not. But I am a bit worried that valuations will now go up even further due to the rate cuts. Valuations will become even crazier it seems...

 

Have Federal Reserve rate cutting campaigns resulted in higher multiples in the past?  I haven't had that experience in my (admittedly short) 24-year career.  I'm fine with being surprised to the upside.

[Malmqky]

5 hours ago, adventurer said:

Any thoughts about how the rate cuts may impact WEBs decision making in the future? He emphasizes that it is all about valuation and whether price is good or not. But I am a bit worried that valuations will now go up even further due to the rate cuts. Valuations will become even crazier it seems...

I don’t think a single 50 point cut is going to do much in terms of valuation. 
 

I know in the past 5% treasuries have been something WEB likes, seems like less than that and they aren’t attractive to him…

[yesman182]

23 hours ago, Malmqky said:

I don’t think a single 50 point cut is going to do much in terms of valuation. 
 

I know in the past 5% treasuries have been something WEB likes, seems like less than that and they aren’t attractive to him…

I'm not sure how you define the term "like". He would rather invest the money in an elephant sized private business purchase. He second preference would be a large bite out of a publicly traded company.  Third he would like to buy back shares of BRK at attractive prices. I don't think he ever likes having 100's of billions parked in treasuries. Yes, he does "like" when rates are above 5% if he can't deploy the capital in buybacks and acquisitions. But he said at the annual meeting earlier this year he would have just as much money in treasuries even if they yielded less than 1%. I think the only time he has said government bonds were a good buy was when the 30 year bonds yielded like 18% in the 80's.

[Milu]

I'd say Buffett is more than happy to sit it out in t-bills for the rest of his life (possibly another 5 years). One of his greatest strengths was never being compelled to do something. If the market crashes and some good deals come available then I'm sure he'll be delighted to snap them up, and if it doesn't he'll just receive his 4 or 5% (or lower) in t-bills.

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, Milu said:

I'd say Buffett is more than happy to sit it out in t-bills for the rest of his life (possibly another 5 years). One of his greatest strengths was never being compelled to do something. If the market crashes and some good deals come available then I'm sure he'll be delighted to snap them up, and if it doesn't he'll just receive his 4 or 5% (or lower) in t-bills.

Uhg. Now like sounds like Berkshire is a target day retirement fund.

[DooDiligence]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Uhg. Now like sounds like Berkshire is a target day retirement fund.

 

You should start a new BRK topic.

 

"Is Berkshire just a target date retirement fund?"

 

 it'll be fun!

[RunPacoRun]

. . . with the target date being infinity.

Edited September 21 by RunPacoRun

[DooDiligence]

11 hours ago, RunPacoRun said:

. . . with the target date being infinity.

 

= anticipated holding period 

[UK]

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/varcoe-greg-abel-credits-alberta-roots-global-business-forum-honour

 

“Right out of the gate, he’s super Canadian, highly likable and as honest as the day is long, and as authentic and as real as any person you’re ever going to get,” Farrell said this week.

 

“He knows where the right deal is, and what the price is, and how you need to work on it. And he’s a man of his word. So if he says, ‘OK, we’ve settled now, let’s get this done,’ we get it done.”

 

Edited September 27 by UK

[UK]

https://stansberryresearch.com/articles/the-short-case-for-berkshire-hathaway

 

 

[DooDiligence]

15 hours ago, UK said:

https://stansberryresearch.com/articles/the-short-case-for-berkshire-hathaway

 

 

 

I like the pushback. GEICO's issues are well known here. I haven't paid attention to BNSF much and just assumed they were whipping the crap out of the competition. But short BRK? Nah. Looking forward to part 2. I'm assuming he'll dis BHE and the cash pile. I hope he tears into OXY.

Edited September 28 by DooDiligence