Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[Jurgis]

Check out his twitter feed. He's 100% for real.

 

You'll loose some time you won't get back but it's good for a chuckle.

 

Yikes, I guess you are right.  Seemed like he was drinking in most of his videos, day or night.  I loved the irony of the 'I should be up a Billion dollars today!' line on the day old man Buffett watched his largest equity position - a tech stock - go up by $10.53 per share, while owning 250,866,566 shares of that tech stock. 

 

Looks like there is a very real possibility that Berkshire's largest equity position will be worth more than the entire market cap of Wells Fargo at some point.  But seriously, what have you done for me lately old man?

 

OT. I watched some of his Twitter videos and I am still not sure if he's serious or if he's playing Cramer/crazy day trader dude. If he is playing, great props for staying in character. OTOH, I only watched some videos, so maybe I missed the ticks.

[John Hjorth]

Personally, I perceived it like Jurgis. No matter what, I considered it great entertainment.

[sleepydragon]

;)

 

[Guest]

;)

 

 

hahaha. I was having trouble getting a full image of it and saw the signature. I was like "Fmr Chairman...Buffett is retiring?!?!?" And then I adjusted things and got a better view. That was pretty awesome.

[sleepydragon]

;)

 

 

hahaha. I was having trouble getting a full image of it and saw the signature. I was like "Fmr Chairman...Buffett is retiring?!?!?" And then I adjusted things and got a better view. That was pretty awesome.

 

It was apparently a joke but a Chinese financial news site picked it up, and likely due to poor translation, took it for real. So last night it was widely reported in various Chinese news site that Buffett was retiring.

[fareastwarriors]

Warren Buffett’s Next Bulk Purchase Should Be Costco

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/warren-buffetts-next-bulk-purchase-should-be-costco/2020/06/05/b38185be-a720-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html

[Guest]

Warren Buffett’s Next Bulk Purchase Should Be Costco

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/warren-buffetts-next-bulk-purchase-should-be-costco/2020/06/05/b38185be-a720-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html

 

 

Munger's been trying to get him to buy shares for 20+ years. If he didn't buy it in 2017, I don't see it happening now.

[longterminvestor]

Seems like small fry restaurant/tavern in Pennsylvania is unhappy with coverage.  Link below.  Doesn't bother me in the least - knew these would come. 

 

HEADLINE: Suit against Berkshire argues virus exclusions should be barred

 

https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20200616/NEWS06/912335145/Suit-against-Berkshire-argues-virus-exclusions-should-be-barred-1-SANT-Inc-

 

 

[DooDiligence]

Seems like small fry restaurant/tavern in Pennsylvania is unhappy with coverage.  Link below.  Doesn't bother me in the least - knew these would come. 

 

HEADLINE: Suit against Berkshire argues virus exclusions should be barred

 

https://www.businessinsurance.com/article/20200616/NEWS06/912335145/Suit-against-Berkshire-argues-virus-exclusions-should-be-barred-1-SANT-Inc-

 

Policyholders are free to sign or not sign.

Don't like the price or terms, don't sign.

 

Trial attorneys are vermin.

[Mephistopheles]

Warren Buffett’s Next Bulk Purchase Should Be Costco

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/warren-buffetts-next-bulk-purchase-should-be-costco/2020/06/05/b38185be-a720-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html

 

Can't read it, needs login. Mind posting the text?

[rb]

Warren Buffett’s Next Bulk Purchase Should Be Costco

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/warren-buffetts-next-bulk-purchase-should-be-costco/2020/06/05/b38185be-a720-11ea-898e-b21b9a83f792_story.html

 

Can't read it, needs login. Mind posting the text?

Right-click, select "open in private window"

[sleepydragon]

As long as Buffett does NOT acquire AMZN, I am ok, cuz my wife has been asking me to buy AMZN 3 years ago and ask me not to buy BRK.

(and to prove her point, she bought AMZN in a simulated stock game account for something like 800/share).

 

If Buffett acquires AMZN, I think I will have to handle over the family investment account to my wife.

 

[Guest]

As long as Buffett does NOT acquire AMZN, I am ok, cuz my wife has been asking me to buy AMZN 3 years ago and ask me not to buy BRK.

(and to prove her point, she bought AMZN in a simulated stock game account for something like 800/share).

 

If Buffett acquires AMZN, I think I will have to handle over the family investment account to my wife.

 

If my wife asked me to buy any stock, for any reason, I would do it. Granted I wouldn't load up unless I agreed with the idea. But you do get extra credit for listening. ;)

[DooDiligence]

Bloomberg article accusing BRK of being just another conglomerate.

 

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/berkshire-hathaway-is-looking-like-just-another-conglomerate

 

There's a really good graphic that illustrates the sizes of BRK businesses relative to each other, based on employees.

 

Insurance industry analyst Meyer Shields gives a backhanded complement.

 

Outtakes from prominent money managers.

[Xerxes]

Apple’ stake now supposedly 20% of BRK.

 

Not to get all hedgie, but I think if one went long BRK and short AAPL (proportionate to the stake size) one can make the bet that Apple has peaked within BRK (I.e. BRK valuation would move to value other pieces that have been ignores). 

[aws]

Apple’ stake now supposedly 20% of BRK.

 

Not to get all hedgie, but I think if one went long BRK and short AAPL (proportionate to the stake size) one can make the bet that Apple has peaked within BRK (I.e. BRK valuation would move to value other pieces that have been ignores).

 

Yep, and closer to 21% actually.  88.7b Apple value out of 426b market value for Berkshire.  I have started to short some Apple to reduce the massive overweight position implied by my Berkshire holdings.  Unfortunately I started shorting when Apple was around 310, but at least I was able to add some this week above 370 to help my average.

 

I think the only other time in recent memory a stock was so overweight in their portfolio was Coke in the 90s.  But the environment in that time was almost the opposite of what it was now.  Berkshire had something like 1/3rd of their net worth in Coke, which was on fire like Apple is now and it was seriously boosting Berkshire's net worth, but then the market further juiced things by pricing Berkshire at 2x book value, even though that book value was built largely on a stock that was pretty overvalued at the time.  But Buffett was able to make hay from that situation by floating the B shares at a very high price (even though he came right out and said it was at a price he wouldn't buy them at), and then again by issuing a ton of stock to acquire Gen Re. 

 

So when Coke was pumping the book value Berkshire got probably much more credit than they deserved in terms of its own market price, and this time with Apple they are getting no credit whatsoever for owning it and are languishing with the other financials at price/book ratios not seen in many years. 

[Spekulatius]

How did they end up owning 9% of this POS (Cattolica, Italian insurer)?

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2020/06/26/573658.htm

 

[Xerxes]

AWS

 

I read that point of view also on Semptus Augustus news letter about Coke peaking in BRk portfolio and Gen Re purchase.

 

What is really weird is that the writer of Semptus asserts that it was a stroke of genius issuing shares when it was 3x book to buy Gen Re.  One would agree, yet Buffet  complained about the equity that he has to issue and the dilution that took place even if it was at several time book value. 

[wescobrk]

Anyone on the board recall how many companies Buffett put more than 20% of the partnership in? I need to reread the letters.

American Express is an obvious one. Berkshire I'm guessing but not sure about that. Blue Chips? Diversified Retailing? I know Dempster was one and I'm pretty sure Sanborne Maps was another. So, maybe 5x out of his 13 year track record?

[Xerxes]

Another article (this time from FT) to be added to the repository of has-buffet-lost-his-touch articles.

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/warren-buffett-lost-his-touch

 

“If Berkshire is to have the prospects of generating the value it has in the past, it has to adapt by buying these companies that will generate significant value over the next 25 years,” said Christopher Rossbach, chief investment officer of J Stern & Co. J Stern manages money for the Stern family, which has held Berkshire shares for decades, as well as other investors.

 

“Both Warren and Charlie (Munger, Berkshire’s vice-chairman) have acknowledged that they have missed Amazon and that they should be looking at these companies but they have also said they don’t understand them,” Rossbach said. “They have kept them in the box that Warren has on his desk that says ‘Too hard’. What will it take for them to take these stocks out of the box?”

 

“Berkshire Hathaway remains designed to reward investors over time but not on time,” said Thomas Russo, a managing member of Gardner Russo & Gardner, which owns Berkshire stock.

“It is one of the reasons we say to people, ‘Don’t be in a hurry to spend that money’,” referring to Buffett’s US$137-billion cash pile. “If you rush it, he could make a mistake.”

 

“I am nervous that he may have missed this whole rally,” said James Shanahan, an analyst with Edward Jones. “If the rally started in late March and he was a net seller in April, it seems like . . . he missed it all. That’s frustrating. A lot of retail investors were ploughing money into the market and doing better than professional investors. I think you can include Buffett in that.”

 

“Those two things, I believe, have really tarnished Berkshire’s reputation for dealmaking,” Seifert said of the two investments. The Occidental deal “was an unmitigated disaster.”

[dutchman]

Guys is there a real possibility that the courts make them cover business interruption claims? Seems crazy, but Im seeing long articles in wsj/ft making this feel real. We're in a wierd moment right now where anything seems possible.

[DooDiligence]

Guys is there a real possibility that the courts make them cover business interruption claims? Seems crazy, but Im seeing long articles in wsj/ft making this feel real. We're in a wierd moment right now where anything seems possible.

 

Fingers crossed that this is a trend.

 

https://propertycasualtyfocus.com/two-early-rulings-in-favor-of-insurers-in-covid-19-insurance-coverage-litigation/

[Mephistopheles]

Guys is there a real possibility that the courts make them cover business interruption claims? Seems crazy, but Im seeing long articles in wsj/ft making this feel real. We're in a wierd moment right now where anything seems possible.

 

I have been wondering this last few days as well. Buffett mentioned during the meeting that the $140 billion cash pile seems like a lot but really is not in the worst case scenario.

 

What was he referring to? What sort of COVID related scenario can BRK lose that much money in? The obvious one to me is this business interruption but then from my understanding BRK is not on the hook for significant damages there at least the way the contracts are currently written. Was he referring to the courts ruling against insurance cos in this matter or something else entirely?

[Cigarbutt]

Guys is there a real possibility that the courts make them cover business interruption claims? Seems crazy, but Im seeing long articles in wsj/ft making this feel real. We're in a wierd moment right now where anything seems possible.

Fingers crossed that this is a trend.

https://propertycasualtyfocus.com/two-early-rulings-in-favor-of-insurers-in-covid-19-insurance-coverage-litigation/

Obviously, legal intermediates are looking at every angles and this means higher legal costs but, in substance, this should not result in inappropriate retroactive coverage but, as the judge seems to be pleading, the risk is political. There is presently unusually high activity levels in drafting projects that may have retroactive consequences. IMO, this is soo un-American but what do i know?

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Irrelevant addition:

In Doodiligence's link, there is a photo of, presumably, the strength of pillars of justice in the US. FWIW, concerning concrete cement infrastructure, it could be argued that the US government has vastly underestimated the depreciation expense (and eventual actual negative cash flows) related to such infrastructure. Of course, governments don't apply this kind of accounting. The use of reinforced concrete has allowed cheaper costs and more elaborate architecture but it contains an inherent flaw whereby the significant rot happens within the reinforced mesh and metastasizes like a cancer before the spalling occurs, revealing the true extent of the useful life of the structure. A temporary way to deal with the issue is to put a safety net.

Signed: a foreign and stupid observer who hopes (with usd-backed fire power) that there are embers behind the potential to make your country great again.

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Back to Berkshire, general news

[gfp]

This has been reported on for a while now, but The NY Times put out a good article detailing some of the fraud at PCP acquisition Wilhelm Shultz.  Makes for an interesting read and sounds like a clear fraud that PCP will be ultimately unable to collect any money on, despite "winning" in arbitration -

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/business/berkshire-hathaway-fraud-germany.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=Business