SharperDingaan

Holding back too much. Back in the day when Russia was breaking up, some friends and I got access to a military warehouse. Whatever we wanted, including transportation to the border, as long as we paid in untraceable USD, and weren't buying weapons. We did very well (after a lot of work!), but barely scratched the surface of what was available to us. An additional 3-5 truckloads would have set us up for life very early on, at almost zero incremental risk. When you have the brass ring, keep pulling on that sucker for everything you're worth! SD

After automatic deduction of pension contribution and mortgage; living paycheck to paycheck is quite normal, and just not a problem. Your job is to just stay employed, and have a large enough 'emergency fund' (credit line/savings) to cover your outflows between jobs. Pay down/eliminate your mortgage, and your 'emergency fund' can be a lot smaller. Do whatever you want with your net take-home, and just let your nest egg keep building every month. The press 'yapping' on most people being < $X away from financial disaster .... ignores their access to credit lines, credit cards, etc.; it's factoids being quoted out of context to create a story. And of course ... 'frames' an asset collection game! Now, should the press/bookie also be prone to sipping the cool aid .... an enterprising lad/lass could expect quite the opportunity from time to time! Even a GS/UBS will reliably screw up every now and again .... but as they are far more valuable alive than bankrupt, it really just comes down to the fire sale price for the ticket; cheap today, but expensive next year! SD

Smuggling friends like to remind me that digital tracking (crypto), is utter sh1te when we all live in a physical world! For the most part; one needs to either disable removal of the physical from the digital track, time limit the digital track, or turn the physical into both a physical and a digital track. The better applications are around diamonds and barcodes imprinted on the skin of produce (produce rots, barcode becomes unreadable, digital track drops). SD

Lot of folks think the Europeans actually have it right; drive towards the 'average' where most people actually are. Rich or poor, everyone in the same group/class is pretty much the same, needs to live somewhere, and if you like the culture and want the best work-life balance possible ... it's pretty hard to beat. Doesn't mean the outliers have to make their money there, but once you have your stash; would you prefer to retire to New York/San Francisco, or a Paris/Barcelona/Milan/Brussels etc? Wealth just gives you options, but to realise that - you either have to be wealthy, or have learnt it from others who are wealthy. If you never learn it, you have no reason to think anything is amiss ('cause the majority of people, that 78%, is just like me!), and ignorance is bliss. So don't tell me how I'm being manipulated .... and get the f*** off my cloud! Key is that you don't have to work in the same place that you retire to, and we have reliable transportation that will quickly get us to/from almost anywhere. We just don't think of a lifetime of working in NA, and a retirement in a different part of the world. Ever the heretic! SD

Just to throw it out there. Think of the crypto asset class as 4 layers; 1) BTC, 2) Utility Token, 3) Non Fungible Token, 4) ‘Crypto Builders’. Pyramid of BTC on top, ‘Crypto Builders’ on the bottom, lower the layer in the pyramid the more ‘fluid’ it is. For most, access to the asset class is via a Crypto-ETF. The higher the layer and the more ‘investable’ the asset, the higher the asset weighting in the pyramid. High weightings for BTC and ETH as the CME option and future markets make these investments both liquid and hedgeable. Crypto diversification by functionality, portfolio optimisation via var-covar price optimisation. Assume a layer 1 of one asset, layer 2 of two assets, etc, etc. It implies one additional and very different utility token, plus three additional and very different NFT vehicles; and each with a separate CME option and futures market. 4+ global ‘Crypto Builders’, each with the standard common share financial options market. All transactions within a layer eventually settled exclusively via CBDC (as anti-money laundering protection). Crypto stacks within each layer; within the BTC layer, BTC as level 1, CBDC/Lightstream as level 2, etc. 'Crypto Builders' resembling the US auto industry of old; where there used to be many constructors, M&A over time eventually shrank it to 3. All still very much an evolving industry, but now the adults are in the room. However, develop your own model around how this evolves, and you could do very well indeed Different PoV SD

Quite agree from the tech PoV. But it's radically different in the investment PoV, when crypto is also considered an asset class. As ETH also has CME options/futures, and is functionally very different to BTC; it's also a preferred choice for asset class diversification. ETH may be clunky, but its very useful 'white label' token, and not going away anytime soon. SD

The mortgage thing comes down to risk tolerance, and degree of interest. Of course there are lots of financial alternatives, but most of us would prefer to spend the bulk of our attention/energy on other than just 'finance'. The reality is that the tail doesn't wag the dog, and the older you get the less risk tolerant (the simpler the better) you become. It is also about how you propose to maintain your long-term mental health. Overworking to make the payments on over indebtedness (dying from stress), is as bad as underworking because you no longer have to (dying from boredom). Most people regard working a reasonable number of hours at something they like as healthy; and if the money isn't needed - it could make mortgage payments. It's essentially a state of mind; perhaps best expressed in the famous quote from The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz (Mordecai Richler), "a man without land is nobody" - substitute a mortgage free house for land. The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz (film) - Wikipedia SD

ETH will be approved for crypto ETF's simply because ETH provides a solid measure of diversification, and there are also CME options/futures available by which to hedge. Displace some of the global demand on BTC, and both the volatility of BTC and a crypto ETF portfolio declines. Not a bad thing, when attempting to get widespread IPS approvals for crypto holdings. SD

Pay the mortgage off thing .... at the simplest level this is the house/apartment that you own and live in (ie: principal residence in Canada). 6 main benefits; Financial control. Pay the mortgage off, and your monthly dividend is tax-free savings on the now cheap shelter (no mortgage) in a very nice neighbourhood; money works for versus against you. Efficient taxation. Borrow against the portfolio to pay the mortgage off, and the margin interest paid is tax deductible; tax man works for versus against you. (Smith manoeuvre) Less stress. The lower the mortgage the less you need to come up with every month; a big deal if you have a variable income, as there will inevitably be some occasional down years. Life enhancer. Kids are expensive; lower your mortgage payment ('cause you paid some of the mortgage down) and the more you can afford them! Obvious, but seldom recognised by many. Life changer. Hero today, bum tomorrow; but pay off your mortgage early; and you're a bum with both a pot to piss in, and the wherewithal to start again. Anti-fragile. The worse the economy gets, the more the paid-off shelter contributes to your well being. Can't be evicted next month and made homeless, because you couldn't make the rent or mortgage payment. As the portfolio gets more volatile/bigger there are other benefits as well; but it requires more sophistication, particularly when there is a high weighting to commodities and BTC SD

The reality is that the western public will never know what really happened; it may simply have been a settling of scores, while it still can be done. At best, we see a few 'examples' made around the world, as a message to others. Warlords, and those facing war crimes are out of business, should peace break out. If this triggers another round of state-on-state strikes that prolongs the war, in their eyes - it's all good. Especially if you're an extremist (on either/some other side) with a fuse burning on your remaining time in office. Keep in mind that 'some other side' could also be a Saudi/US gentleman's agreement. The more that Israel f**** *p, the more that MBS is our 'friend'; there is not much difference between Netanyahu war crimes, and the state assassination of Khashoggi. Simply a different POV. SD

Have to think the helicopter crash wasn't an accident; it's 2024, this level of dignitary fly only with the best pilots, in suitably modified craft, and with all kinds of 'other' support. May-18, Gantz demands a plan for post Gaza by Jun-08 or he quits (bringing down the government); about the same time, Netanyahu is issued an international arrest warrant; executable as soon as he is no longer in government. And two days later a helicopter auspiciously flies into a mountain, killing all on board? perhaps with a little help from some friends? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/18/israels-gantz-demands-gaza-post-war-plan-threathens-to-quit-govt https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-icc-prosecutor-seeks-arrest-warrants-for-israeli-pm-netanyahu-defence/ The US built Gaza floating pier is now complete, and the aid trucks have begun rolling. Driving the population out of Gaza has failed; and it is a simple matter to replace the drivers and distribution with blue-helmets. It would appear that Gaza is pretty much done; and that even Gantz can see that. https://ca.news.yahoo.com/aid-flows-gaza-u-military-155901057.html It would also seem that Netanyahu himself is perhaps the only person in the world gifted enough to make MBS look good. https://www.ibtimes.com.au/us-envoy-touts-potential-israel-saudi-deal-netanyahu-talks-1848158 Of course oil prices will rise on this, but one has to hope that the saner heads will prevail. Also have to think that a US 'protection from prosecution' in return for 'exile' will be on the table; and that the precedent will be extended to MBS when it becomes his time. SD

The reality is that the sector is overbuilt most everywhere, and much of the stock needs to be written down in a big way. For most it means that asset write-downs will trigger debt covenant defaults, unless replacement new equity can be raised via new share issuance at rock bottom prices, and material dilution. So extend and pretend, 'cause if one BK's the game is over for all of them. How many IB's went down within 4 months of the Lehman's collapse ??? If you simply opened a new REIT and just bought a building (at a suitable deep liquidity discount), you would have a much better proposition and at a lot less risk. No shopping, until the vultures come down from the trees. SD

A lot of it is also natural shrewdness/strategic planning; our gent had it in spades and while I thought I was pretty good at this, I quickly learnt that I was playing hockey against a Gretzky. At the time, I was practised at playing multiple simultaneous games of chess and keeping everything straight, but had to sweat like a pig to match him, even after he'd had a few drinks. One of those people who probably invented game theory by trial and error, whereas Nash just wrote it down. Fortunately there aren't too many of these folks, so it leaves enough crumbs for the rest of us mere mortals! SD

The reality is that most people just can't apply what they know; a good many of the financially very literate also live paycheck to paycheck. Way back in the day a crusty old gent (and very good smuggler) pointed three things out to us ..... When millions of people can't live paycheck to paycheck anymore, should something go wrong there are way bigger economic problems than their ineptness; and the authorities will go to extraordinary lengths to bail everyone out. In financial circles we know it as the fed 'put', and 'too big to fail', at the retail level we know it as helicopter money outside of the usual social services net. It's an entirely rational approach, and an individual only needs to be a little bit better than the other guy; not the propaganda fed by the financial press. Every investment portfolio has three outputs: (1) dividend income to live on, (2) growth > inflation to maintain purchasing power, (3) trading gains to pay for the bucket list. Within a tax deferred portfolio (RRSP, etc.), over the course of a year a reasonably enterprising lad/lass should be able to a net a 10% swing trading gain on a 500K portfolio, over/above the net buy/hold growth requirement of the portfolio itself. Trading gains are 'house' money, systematically take them off the table, pay the tax, and enjoy yourself - while you still can. Inflation is a pyramid; 2% x the square base of the pyramid x money turnover, divided over the much smaller collection base at the top of the pyramid, is a clever trick. The more economic activity the higher the money turnover, the more economic activity affected the larger the pyramid's base, and the much more the collection at the top of the pyramid. Recognise how the game works .... then help yourself. Sadly the man has now passed, and we're all the poorer for it. SD

Without ongoing hostilities, the only way out for Netanyahu is resignation. Defy the world, do Rafah, and retire to glory as the 'saviour' who rid Israel of Hamas. Thing is, Netanyahu isn't Dayan or Ben-Gurion, and after Rafah - both Hamas and Hezbollah will still be there. All that happens is that labour dries up, and the sons and daughters of those killed in these hostilities - ensure another 2-3 decades of ongoing conflict. An eye for an eye. All hail Netanyahu. SD

It is only a matter of time until NATO starts doing troop relieving 'training' exercises in the Ukraine, bringing their ammunition/gear with them, and parking it in airfields and warehouses across the Ukraine. 'Lighting up' all planes/drones/transportation in Ukrainian airspace, for potential missile lock. Might even conduct training exercises accompanying grain ships through disputed areas, much as ships are currently accompanied in both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea today. You get 'X' number of months to get your hot pursuit/invasion done/dusted, after which the rest of the world steps in? SD

Bernie thing ... He merely points out that what is going on in Gaza, is just wrong; and that keeping quiet for fear of being branded antisemitic is not racist; it is simply not acquiescing to what is going on, and recognising that when millions of people around the globe similarly speak up, change is much more likely. It's rebellion, and a propagandist nightmare. The propagandist (warlord, extremist) solution is to fan the fear of antisemitism, as the more perceived antisemitism the diaspora experiences, the more support it generates at home; the state exists so that Jewish people everywhere have a safe 'home', and see! - it is clearly needed, and it takes money/weapons to support. Cast speaking out on Gaza as antisemitic, the Bernie's as doddering fools, and the student protests around the world as threats .... seem familiar? Much as in playoff hockey, occasionally there are teams/players that lose it, and insist on playing rough. Elbows/sticks go up, the hits get harder, and individuals get targeted, to get the message across - give it a rest. It persists, injuries climb, eventually either the player or the team loses the playoff round, everyone walks away with bruises, and the remaining playoff games for the winning teams are less than they could be. Gaza atrocities/synagogue targeting are just different manifestations of rough hockey; nobody wins. No dog in this, other than a ceasefire will instantly drop the price of o/g. If it also results in fewer deaths, and more people retaining their limbs, so much the better. Field treatment and prosthetics have come a long way, but its better never to require one. SD

Thank you. I just have experience with other very good conscript armies that are similar. When everything is going your way there are no issues, but when it gets to the things that will be very hairy, it's typically the professionals that are sent in and not the conscripts. When its too hairy even for the professionals, it's the mercenaries. Not a bad thing, it's simply commanders trying to protect the conscripts from the worst of the horrors that are about to happen; not a lot different to rescue workers pulling mangled bodies out of car wrecks on the side of the highway. But when there aren't enough professionals left, and the conscripts have to go; things can go badly, and very quickly. And if the other guy doesn't have the professionals either, it becomes a sociopath breeding ground; with the worst offenders have amazing survivability. Those sociopaths escape .... and you get the crop of future dictators. Great faith in the IDF, but it has been a long war and there has been a lot of dehuminization already. Rafah will leave a lot scars, and atrocities are unavoidable. Best all round if it doesn't happen. SD

Media has long been just another propaganda medium, with the reward going to whoever can best control the channel. We're just accustomed to an earlier time when the technology was in its infancy, and the media were state broadcasters (PRAVDA, BBC, etc.) Today,technology has 'democratised' the channel; by broadening the number of swim lanes, and reducing the barriers (journalistic standards) between lanes. Today's compelling, live-time, unsubstantiated you-tube video is driven by network effect, and carries as much weight as the press release from an esteemed source; but is seen by many more, and in real time. And with imagery that used to come from a Hollywood studio, now manipulated via AI, and in real time. The technology may change; but the objectives/techniques remain the same, and are now harder to hide. However, should an enterprising lad be able to recognise some of the manipulation techniques? he/she could do very well ..... If you're going to do investing you need to add propaganda expertise to your skill set, and its right up there alongside the CFA. SD

The only folks who fear peace are the warlords, and the extremists; as without a continuous war in Gaza, there is no place for them. They are of course, still free to eliminate each other via the long-standing state-on-state shadow wars, but one has to think that the Gaza war itself is coming to an end; as it's just too costly to maintain. SD

Peace .... and an end to 7-months of war. SD

Too bad, the press reports otherwise ... https://ca.news.yahoo.com/israel-gaza-live-updates-idf-074412294.html Ismail Haniyeh, head of the political bureau of the Hamas movement, said in a statement the group has called the prime minister of Qatar and Egyptian minister of intelligence "and informed them of the Hamas movement's approval of their proposal regarding the ceasefire agreement." SD

Keep in mind that as long as the Gaza war remains ‘over-there’, the western world can just wring its hands, and send weapons/money. Different story when it’s ‘here too’, on campuses all over the world; and much more effective when the targets are the kids of the wealthy - with disproportional influence. It is a simple matter to divert Israeli bound artillery shells, rockets, bullets, etc. to the Ukraine which desperately needs them; and straight forward to ‘delay’ gasoline and money flows as well. It is also hard to prosecute a strike for any length of time with limited reserves, and a horrific daily burn. Over the weekend, Hamas offered peace and an end to the war; the only reason the war continues today is because Israel chose to walk away in favour of a strike on Rafah. Hot pursuit is defensible, whereas this? …. not so much. Cut off the oxygen, and even a warlord can only live for so long. SD

A great many combatants and civilians died during WWII simply because there was nowhere else for them to go; carpet bombing and getting shot for refusal to fight being the norm. Not a lot different from a Palestinian trapped in Gaza today, and an IDF conscript balking at comitting a potential war crime in Rafah, because they were ordered to. Not the message the propagandists have in mind. SD

Check the Jordan Times against Al Jazeera, for a pretty good take on the Arab street; The Times of Israel for the other side. Just keep in mind that the nuttier Israel gets, the harder the Israeli propaganda will be. The Israelis are about to experience a world of hurt for walking away from the peace talks. Expect the IDF to be branded as 'baby killers', with lurid pics of naked dead/starving Gaza infants at the feet of actors dressed in IDF uniform. Expect the IDF to be branded 'out of control' with lurid examples of units made up of particular sects committing war crimes in the settler communities. Expect comparisons of the IDF vs the German Army under the control of Hitler; they didn't act either, and it wiped out millions of the Allied/Axis population - the same as the deliberate famine/disease in Gaza. Then add the new IDF casualties from the Rafah offensive, where the intent will be as much maiming as possible. Whatever ones view; this worked very well during the Vietnam era, and in 2024 the targets will be Israeli students on American campuses (new hostages). Served in the IDF before school? baby killer. Haven't served yet? draft-dodging coward. How long before the parents of those privileged students make themselves felt? They need a way out, and the sooner the better. SD