SharperDingaan

The US administration is just incompetent, that's all there is to it. Hence .... the reliable action is to simply trade against whatever it does, in expectation that it has no idea as to the mechanics, and can be relied upon to f*** ** **. Orange Boys signature isn't worth anything, and It's essentially a long straddle; if by fluke the administration gets it right - it's a bonus ... but if it screws up, it's also a bonus. Don't much care which way it goes Shitty way to run a railroad, but it is what it is. SD

CJ.TO but do your own DD. Pays 6c/month. Per full disclosure, we have averaged into a good chunk of it over the last two days. End of public service announcements SD

Should Iran's oil production loading and infrastructure facilities experience extended downtime, there will be more than enough 'supply makeup' to go around. Of course if you don't release that production .... maybe your US defence experiences a 'technical difficulty' ... at a time when you very much need it. No different to the mob boss burning your house ... then demanding cash before he brings in the fire brigade. SD

Blew away a good chunk of our BTC bought yesterday (at a gain), and reinvested in a CAD dividend payer on both the adverse tariff and OPEC+ news. Getting paid very well to sit on our ass, waiting for BTC to drop through its support levels; if you think that marginal money flows into BTC are a price determinant .... the tariff related drying up of liquidity is your friend Happy shopping. SD

Good day for shopping ... Keep in mind that it is not logical for OPEC+ to be raising output (411K bpd) into what will very likely be a lower demand environment (post tariffs), unless there is a sizeable new buyer (US SPR?) and/or a sanctioned source of crude (Iran) that is about to have a mishap. The two-day DJ loss is approaching 3,000 points ... and Orange Boy needs a distraction; and he will really need one, when Q1 reporting and the post tariffs unemployment numbers show up. Clock is ticking. All looks good, and if you happen to buy a dividend payer .... 12% cash yields are available SD

You might want to look at the CAD heavy oil producers, in expectation of a significant tariff carve out within the next few days. Jack be nimble SD

+9%. Primarily because of swing trades, and cashing out 80%+ of our equities pre 'liberation day'. Bought most of the BTC back this morning, along with a good chunk of the oil/gas. UBS bought back on the euro exchange. Orange Boy f***** ** in a big way here, and is going to need help from the fed. Not much risk to holding BTC at this point. SD

Way to go Orange Boy 1,100 points, the 'bots haven't begun selling set, and that toilet flush is the gold reserves and proceeds from maturing T-Bills fleeing the US. Get your money out now boys, while you still can .... Collectively put a run on the US Fed .... at the same time it is being hit with counterveiling tarrifs from the entire world. Soros ran the BoE, successfully run the US Fed ... and you'll be immortal! SD

Today the capital markets learnt that Orange Boy isn't just trash talking .... he's doing it for real. If you thought this was bad, it is going to get a lot worse in the next month as auto starts laying off .... and the plummeting foreign sales of US companies start to hit earnings season. Inflation is bonus. Orange Boy isn't going to change until Americans make him; the honeymoon is over, and after today ... the bill collectors ain't gonna be shy. Sadly, a lot of Americans are going to get badly hurt .... something to keep in mind when you're raking in the short-sale gains over the next few weeks. SD

He ain't going back to his former role at Tesla. Have to think that he would also be gone entirely within a year. Tesla needs a goat to blame, and he's it. Better if Tesla just fired him off the top, and he took himself elsewhere. MAGA ... as in Make America GO AWAY !!! SD

So far it's Orange Boy throwing the punches, and the resultant US unemployment and earnings hits haven't arrived yet. All honeymoons eventually end ... then the bills have to be paid. It ain't gonna be pretty. SD

The reality is that when a Canada (any exporter) sells a tariffed good/service into the US, CANADA (any exporter) has the incentive to devalue its currency relative to USD; even more so when the big product export categories are primarily priced in USD, and the production costs are in CAD (Oil, Electricity, Potash, etc.). Little that the US can actually do about it, other than the usual threat and bluster. To devalue a reserve currency, it has to be made less attractive versus other reserve alternatives. The obvious solution is a restructuring of US debt, and extensive use of zero-coupon debt. The obvious alternative is USD debt backed by a BTC standard. The obvious negotiation 'spin' is to demand global compliance ... or we do it ourselves, 'cause you made us! Sound familiar? Every 100,000 BTC priced at a peg of 'X' (250K for example purposes), backing 25 Billion of debt. Once the deed is done, BTC rapidly moves past 250K which becomes the floor price. There is a reason for the chatter around stable coin, the 'crypto' summits, and why Orange Boy wants the US to be the king of crypto. Same as every other magician ... it's all about bluff and distraction. Have to think that the US is having trouble financing its debt rollovers; hence the scramble for cash, and pressing need to change the terms of trade .... while it still can. Opportunity SD

Not so sure ... Most all the institutional shareholders would put a long straddle on Musk being fired. If the stock drops as a result of no more Elon ... they do very well. If the stock pops because the liability is gone ... they also do well. But nothing happens unless Elon is out; and there's a high payoff for his eviction. Money whispers .... Elon just yaps SD

Probably also figuring out how to fire him for cause, and claw back some of the pay package; as he now hasn't worked for them for 3 months, and has also single-handedly destroyed much of the brand .... near impossible to sell a swasticar right now, and tesla 'apology' bumper stickers are selling like hotcakes. https://www.redbubble.com/i/sticker/Tesla-sticker-for-owners-that-want-to-express-their-dislike-for-Elon-Musk-White-and-black-version-by-CasbenShop/168731769.EJUG5?country_code=CA&gad_source=1&gclid=Cj0KCQjwkZm_BhDrARIsAAEbX1FvxyepIMYCTfilZ1I8w53yZWZE-37hN3t0rk8iY2iqA4nzZ1DI96AaAtcYEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds Make a lot of shareholders very happy ... SD

War premium is already in the price, and why WTI has been pushing towards USD 70. Whatever Iran loses the rest of OPEC can easily replace, and pretty much immediately. It only gets interesting if Iran successfully rains heavy rockets on Saudi oil facilities, with enough damage to put them out for months; hence the US buildup. SD

$50 oil is because tariffs are reducing trade, and it takes less oil to make less goods. Lower demand translating into lower prices. SD

25% tariffs on all foreign auto, and auto parts, simply guarantees high unemployment. Existing plants and supply chains are not going to move; simply because its both too disruptive, and Orange Boy will not be there in 4 years. Cheaper to just produce less and charge more. So if you live in the US ... you now drive a US car 'cause you cannot afford a foreign one; even if you like to drive the Jeep, Mustang, or the various Swasticars - mark yourself out as a poor person. And travel outside the US ... you'll see most people driving the 'foreign cars' .... driving home how poor you actually are. Way to go Orange Boy! Third world nation stuff. SD

Canada is simply switching off the channel. Orange Boys daily antics largely ignored while we get on with building our own alternative solution. Wouldn't have occurred without him, and we don't have to negotiate anything until CUSMA expires in 2036. The more toxic the US gets, the more we benefit; the change will be painfull, but our sons and daughters will all be materially the better for it. Can't say the same for the US. SD

It strongly implies that US debt has begun to hit the wall. All the tariff and cost cutting drama intended to raise as much cash as possible, as quickly as possible, and keep the public eye off the debt. Less debt rolling over, blamed on adverse tariff reaction versus buyers balking at it. There is very little difference to an EM sovereign in financial trouble, and the US at the moment. Opportunity That debt restructuring is also getting a lot closer, and when much of it is domestically held ... it's Americans who take the hit. Can't spend when your zero coupon bond no longer pays interest. SD

Nah .... Anders is just planning a friendly Danish airport welcome for them https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/22/world/video/danish-official-responds-donald-trump-greenland-purchase-digvid No visa, you're illegals! .... so we're deporting you SD

This trade is essentially a bet on the ME blowing up before time X; hold OXY so that you can benefit from the expected volatility ... via a buy/sell of OXY. a buy of OXY/sale of a call during the volatility, or a long OXY call. Downside is that the volatility doesn't occur, your OXY cost base is too high, or you're out your call premium. Decide your priorities. The US is exiting the Russia/Ukraine war, the hope is that intervention pulls the US into an extended ME engagement instead. The US needs to sell weapons that allies are now reluctant to buy, and collect funds for the ordinance that the Navy is burning daily. Should the US have to 'restructure' it's debt in the interim, or the tariff war not go the way Trump hopes, it doesn't go well. More production, and lower oil prices for an extended period; maybe the US supporting a floor price via a refill of the SPR. Lots of ways to play. SD

The US doesn't have any SPR left to release. The transactional expectation is that OPEC would lift its current production restrictions in return for US 'protection' and access to key port and airfields. The black swans are the sinking of a US navy capital ship, a US cargo ship carrying fuel/weapons, and/or the termination of a US AWACS plane; any of which will crack the myth of US invincibility. The US discovering that it is also going it alone .... allies only supplying weapons and intelligence, on a transactional basis. SD

The internet is just another communicaton tool, the same as mass production of print was back in the day. Control what gets distributed and you have a propaganda tool by which to control your masses. When it goes your way ... it's the greatest thing since sliced bread ... when it doesn't, it's subversive and we have to shut it down! Nobody likes competitors. Simple to cut off access to social media platforms, take the megaphone away and the influence collapses. Of course .... if use of those platforms is keeping you in power ... it's a different proposition. An opportunity. SD

When the majority of your population thinks you are an economic 'god', rationality has nothing to do with it .... VAT is a tariff! Of course ..... once the three horsemen of unemployment, inflation, and debt restructuring arrive ..... 'god' turns into the devil ... and the US reaps the whirlwind. Does anyone really see US index levels remaining where they are when that happens? All that one can really do is stay as far removed as possible, and close to solid structures. When the orange sh1te hits the fan, it ain't going to be pleasant. You might glow in the dark though SD

Holding a BTC-ETF gives you the benefit of regulatory protection, and professional portfolio management inclusive of exchange traded BTC options, futures, lending, etc. A material advantage, and one of the few times that paying for that ISDA agreement access and professional management makes sense. The caveat is that you need to keep your exposure to any one BTC-ETF under your regulatory maximum; hence, should shite happen, you may eventually get your money back. We hold our BTC entirely via BTC-ETF, and spread over multiple ETF's so as to stay under our regulatory maximums; none of them are US BTC-ETFs. The rest is risk management, and scale. Whether you keep 10, or 100 gold wafers in your safety deposit box, the monthly deposit box fee is the same. Whereas the more BTC-ETF you have, the higher your total management fees will be. SD