SharperDingaan

We just call it a surcharge. Pay up the additional 25% or freeze in the dark. Your choice ☺ SD

Within 6 weeks most of the US auto sector will be laid off. Agriculture and industry will also be laying off in a big way as there is way too much capacity for the now smaller market. And many will not be able to claim benefits, or receive them ... cause Elon fired those who make it happen. The laid off also aren't going to do the work illegals did, or for the same pay; so expect to pay a lot more for what you get. Six weeks in, even if Trump suddenly lifted tariffs as a 'bad idea', most nations would be intentionally slow in removing them. The US just isn't trusted, and it's a lot better to simply keep up the pain. Schoolyard bully's don't change until they experience fear, and the bullied need a win. Expect rough play as par for the course. SD

The smarter thing is sell off today, park in cash for 2 months or so, then buy back your positions at a much lower price. Mass US unemployment, big jumps in the daily cost of just about everything, and big reductons in Q1 international sales ... doing the talking for you. SD

It also costs a lot less, and is quicker to build, if it can terminate around Montreal and thereafter tankers transport it out via the St Lawrence Seaway. SD

Long puts. Give up the premium as insurance. SD

Trump f***** **, that's all there is to it. Didn't get the minerals, will still have to support Ukraine via NATO, and can't fire Vance as a way of taking the blame .... what a loser All that's left is an old man flapping his gums, and sycophants trying to put the best possible spin on domestic consumption. SD

There is nothing wrong with being long US equities; the world just doesn't need as much of them, and much of the money has alternative domestic opportunities. All that a money manager need do is hold puts on the indexes; thereafter he/she could care less if the equity dump crashes the market, as the loss is made back on the put gains. Ain't insurance great SD

It will be interesting to see how US tariffs actually get applied to Canada's oil. Canada's main refinery is located in Sarnia (Ontario), and is fed from WCS travelling cross country via the Enbridge mainline. As oil/gas within North America is fully integrated; to get around the Great Lakes, the Enbridge mainline travels south into the US, from which two branches come together in Michigan, and the refinery feed stock re-enters Canada at Sarnia. Two ways the tariff on this supply could go. 1) Sarnia bound crude is exempted as it wasn't exported by Canada, it's just passing through the US. It reflects NA oil/gas integration, and there is essentially no change. 2) All the mainline crude is tariffed, all users pay more for the feed-stock, and both expanded rail and the Energy East pipeline get built as mega-projects. All pipe in Canada, all built by Canadian steel and labour only, and all US involvement intentionally shut out wherever practical. We need the work, and we don't need you .... The attractions are that most inter-provincial trade barriers have now been removed, and to get the benefits Canada needs to be building mega-projects. It is also preferable to take a war-time approach; fund it via fiscal policy, ONLY via tax-advantage CAD bonds, ONLY eligible to CAD residents. Canadian patriotism finding an outlet via bond purchases, interest earned staying at home, and the whole country benefiting from confederation type renewal projects. Total cost applied to Canada's NATO defence spending, as we can now deliver fuel and weapons, in scale, on both coasts. Helpful if Canada ALSO produces NATO artillery shells and fuels, delivered from east coast ports. Defence spending doesn't have to be bullets, rockets, ships/planes, troops on the ground, etc ..... and if it results in NATO being able to diversify its North American ordnance production in the process ... so much the better for everyone. Sticking it to the US, a bonus SD

Most would expect that from this point forward ... Europe's defence will be to Europe to do, the US simply supplying arms and infrastructure from outside the conflict zone. As the US just did to the Ukraine, expect it to do the same to Europe as well. Our own view is European troops/weapons in Ukraine, no restrictions on their strike ability, and wholesale targeted destruction of essential Russian energy infrastructure; no different to the US in Gulf War I, II. Europe goes to war about once/century; appease Russia now, and it's Europe next, with the weapons contributing to the NATO 2% budget target. Trump gets NATO contributions up ... Few dispute that Europe and Canada need to get their sh1te together; they just don't have to be 'American', and more Asian/ME trade is preferred over American. Tariff wars enable that, the changes are long-term, and frankly we're all a lot healthier for it. US trade deficits occur because the US buys more abroad than it sells, and the FX rate is not allowed to 'float'; tariffs pressure a move to a floating FX as the solution to domestic unemployment. Trump gets nations to wake up ... When rich people suddenly start seeking economies, it is a sign that they are in a financial squeeze. USD has competitors, quite a few would take great delight in seeing the US flounder as capital exits into other instruments, and capital controls are a lot harder to execute in today's world. Capital flight is just as destructive as bombs/rockets, but leaves the infrastructure intact. Trump should be careful throwing stones .... Tariffs are going to happen, the US is going to seriously regret Trump, and it will be what it will be. The US public voted for him overwhelmingly, and will wear the consequences; but best if it does not travel abroad for a while. The US is toxic, and 'ugly American' is not a recommended 'look'. SD

Roughly 40% o/g, 40% BTC-ETF, 20% cash. Much of the BTC-ETF bought back late this week. Sadly, the more Trump opens his mouth, the more comfortable we have become with the coming tariffs. Today's events around Zelensky just adding nails to the coffin. SD

Supposedly tariffs kick in on Tuesday; most would expect Canada to counter with the below tariffs almost immediately. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2025/02/list-of-products-from-the-united-states-subject-to-25-per-cent-tariffs-effective-february-4-2025.html So far, the major indices are down roughly 5% since Trump was inaugurated, and many of the 'magnificent 7' are now around November lows; the more significant their crypto exposure, the poorer they have done. You can delay a tariff implementation only once; do it twice or more and you just come across as weak ... cannot get your sh1te together.... all big hat, no cattle, etc. Impose tariffs; US Auto shuts down within a month, and there are widespread layoffs throughout the US. Within 6-months there are multiple cancelled capital projects, wide-spread mortgage defaults, material losses at the banks; and scaled back treasury auctions in response to insufficient demand. No amount of 'gas lighting', 'distraction', or 'fairy dust', able to hide the unemployment misery... and the foreign press happily highlighting it. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/gaslighting First time out the extorted were fearful of the consequences of NOT complying. Now? it's continue to talk... but the consequence is an immediate bench clearing, punch hard, keep punching, and fight to win; ALL the extorted, ALL at once. Simply 'cause when a US trade signature isn't worth anything, there's nothing to lose. We live in Interesting times. SD

Most would argue that he's drunk on power; I am invincible! At one time he was very, very good .... now he's just another idiot savant, flying high on rapidly melting wings. Every round of cuts, a new roll of the dice betting on the unsuccessful reprisal of thousands of people; then one day the dice comes up against ..... SD

Social media only works for you so long as you continue to deliver the goods; fail, and they start to trash talk you ...... BTC sold off in a very big way today; liquidity being accumulated ahead of Monday. Given that BTC price is also a function of liquidity... as soon as the tariffs are announced, expect another big drop. Leaks don't get onto social media unless the platform owners allow it ... and so far, with all these clumsy dismissals... it has been remarkably quite. Orange Boy needs to turn it around within days .... or the honeymoon is over and the grenades start going off. Dance, Orange Boy ... dance! Is Elon the boss, or are you just the car jockey working for tips? Twitter wants to know!! SD

US optimism will be quite different a month from now when Detroit and most US car manufacturing goes silent. Mass layoffs as soon as tarifs are imposed on Monday. Donny tried this before and Dow futures dropped 600 points+. Not mentioned in the propaganda is that tariffs were immediatly halted before the market opened. The reality is that most people are not high tech or professionals, and the shitty jobs pay the bills. Get rid of them in quantity, and you risk a good chunk of your population turning on you ... and stoking the flames is fair game. The US routinely does this everywhere else ... and payback is a bitch. Orange boy exists to be used, the view outside of the US is very different, and 'sticking it to Americans' is now widespread. The only certainty is Orange Boy's rising paranoia, and its exploitation thereof. SD

You might want to look at the Pathways Alliance CCS Project. https://pathwaysalliance.ca/foundational-project/carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs/ The method injects large amounts of CO2 into a formation to re-pressure it, and drive CO2 from the high-pressure bores through to the low pressure collectors. The CO2 acts as a liquid dilutant, collecting oil along the way to the collectors, that ultimately flows out the well head as an oil, and sizeable CO2 gas cut. It is a tertiary recovery method and will typically produce another 10%+ out of an existing reservoir (depending upon its porosity). The injected CO2 can either be chemically locked into the reservoir (Alberta), or injected until it flows out of the collectors again; at which point both the injectors and collectors are capped with concrete. To make it economical, requires a carbon tax that pays producers to sequestrate, and massive amounts of CO2 that have to be piped in. The real money is in the disposal fees, the additional oil/gas produced is essentially a by-product. The pipe is a utility, and the CO2 sequestrated counts towards Kyoto agreements. Environmentalists rant as the Kyoto intent was to reduce C02 emissions by not producing C02, versus the technological solution of removing CO2 by locking it in the ground. Zealots on both sides. Minimal impact on 'peak oil', other than delaying the date (ongoing depletion approximately on par with new production). It primarily increases the total gas produced, and turns the reservoir into a giant paid CO2 sponge. Both are environmental pluses. Good for the industry as it extends the economic life of reservoirs by multiple decades. SD

The reality is that Americans voted for Orange Boy in all categories; like it or not, one has to respect the decision. Tariffs are sold to the US public as a 'negotiation tactic'; outside of the US it's just plain old-fashioned blackmail ..... by an old man who thinks he's a mafia 'don of dons'. Yet in most mafia movies, it's almost always the old don who gets replaced .... and by a series of new ones. Orange Boy is 78; Biden was 81 when he had his 'senior's moment' in the election debates .... Orange Boy may well not even make it to the end of his term. An opportunity Real 'don of dons' do not make career ending mistakes. Trying to take over Greenland, or make Canada the 51st state; is a act of aggression as per the NATO defence treaty ... that automatically triggers a NATO response. Greenland is a DENMARK protectorate, and each of Denmark, Canada, and the US are members of NATO. Declaring retaliation on yourself? .... planning on pulling out of NATO .... and letting NATO ordinance fall on the US? .... or just planning on leaving the world early Blackmail only works if the target can't afford to call the bluff, your security is very good, and the multiple 'targets' can't gang up on you. But it's a whole different thing when the other 'targets' are also don's, and also very well versed in both blackmail and the tenets of the Dictator's Handbook. You may be big and strong, but economics is very much like air; restrict it, and you suffocate. The US is toxic; per the tariffs, all across Canada every business has been actively looking at minimising it's exposure to the US. Sometimes it's diverting to non-US suppliers, sometimes it's financial engineering (with government assistance), and sometimes its just relocating. Sometimes the tariffs are actually beneficial, as things that were never possible previously are now practical, and in scale. It's the same story all across Europe, and it will be US workers who pay the price. Foreign buyers do not have to roll maturing US T-Bills, and there are a multitude of similar instruments in other currencies; as with the weaponization of tariffs, money flows can be weaponized as well ... the cost of which is interest. The big difference today is existence of BTC, and the BTC-ETF; the more that nations go at each other, the more valuable these become. Trade partners do not have to maintain their US FX rate; again, as with the weaponization of tariffs, FX rates can be weaponized as well ... the cost of which is a strangle on US exports. When the domestic European landed cost of a Tesla is more than a high-end BMW, it ain't selling; and if you ain't allowed to manufacture in Europe ... that market 'shut-out' is permanent. Our sandbox, our rules ... goes both ways. Today, a US signature on a trade agreement is no longer trustworthy. One simply files for a tariff resolution as per the existing agreement, walks away until the existing agreement is near expiry, and retaliates at will however is deemed necessary ... netting the penalties against whatever you are owed. Tariff threats do nothing more than raise unemployment on both sides of the border; there is no 'negotiation', as your signature is worthless. Much as in a bar-fight, if you're friend has too much to drink and insists on getting into a fight ... there's not a lot you can do; stay out of the way, run a betting book on the outcome, safely get him/her to an emergency room/dentist afterwards, and get them home, is about as far as it goes. Whatever made on the betting book given to the bar owner to pay for damages. A lot of Orange Boys objections are actually valid (defence spending, government waste, money-laundering, DEI, etc.); but there are better ways of going about it, that don't create as much bad will. All that a retaliatory G-7 need do is selectively tariff anything Musk related out of the market, ban Musk platforms within their borders, boost spending on their public communication vehicles (BBC, ABC, CBC, etc) and re-categorise that spending as military (countering cyber influence). NATO spending as % of GNP rises, and if the Tesla share price collapses .... so much the better. Orange Boy isn't going away, but he can be used .... SD

The problem with gaming is that there are always people screwing up the pay-offs, and their 'wins' may well be counter-productive to yours. Trying for a 'golden-age' measured by the level of exchange indexes, by risking levels of unemployment and poverty on par with the 1929 Great Depression, is just stupid. You send us to hell, we're taking you with us; in Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Nobody has to roll over maturing US T-Bills, there are a great many alternatives, and there is now a growing need to spread the risk. The US Fed may well be raising rates because it is already hitting a debt-wall, that is only avoidable .... so long as USD remains the dominant reserve currency. Reduce these roll overs in a big way ... and the game changes. Negatively target the indexes to give it a nudge .... The way out is to end it as soon as possible. SD

Canada (and the world) have begun to respond to Trumps attacks via promotion of 'buy local'; essentially, anything that is a US import is toxic. One of the consequences is declining sales at franchisee's that hire local, rent local, buy local (for the most part) ... that are owned by American franchisers; franchiser branding has made them toxic, and global Q1 2024 international sales are likely to take a hit. Within Canada there are quite a few of these franchisees, they collectively add quite a bit of economic activity, and one of the circulating solutions is 'soft nationalisation'. A national government collects the franchisee payments, and temporarily holds them in trust until the tariffs thing is resolved. Franchisee contracts are protected under 'force majeure' provisions, they are now able to brand as 'local' to mitigate disruption and maintain their economic activity ... and the franchiser (primarily US) is now captive to tariff resolution. Share prices drop like a rock, indexes drop, and the more that others follow ... the worse it gets. All hail the orange boy! Tech is particularly vulnerable, there are ready alternatives for most tech things, and few are likely to cry if Elon and the 'magnificent 7' companies are simultaneously targeted by US trade partners. Priced at perfection, quite a few would see a hard sell off on the DOW/NASDAQ as both a desirable thing, and a future buying opportunity. Again, all hail the orange boy! Trump throws up tariffs, the rest of the world attacks the level of the DOW/NASDAQ .... and shorts on the way down. Inside trading around the sale of meme coin, offset against inside trading around index shorts; not too many are likely to disagree with the 'market' solution. We live in interesting times. SD

The realities are that the US will remain the major consumer for at least the next decade or so, and there are multiple legal ways by which to offset the tariff exposure. There are also a lot of 'other' highly profitable ways by which to exploit the tariffs .... so tariff baby, tariff! Much as it was during prohibition days, there is no reason why the mid-western states should not continue to get their supply, and we all share in the wealth https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/oil-smuggling-isnt-easy-but-despite-obstacles-refiners-are-minting-1-billion-every-day/118138885 SD

The gist is true, but the article really understates the conservative sh1te show; the conservative leader was minimising public appearances when this pole was done, had he been making more, it may well have been a lot worse. Today he is being routinely satired on Canada's version of Saturday Night Live, not in a good way, and we haven't even gotten into the 'tiny PP' (Pierre Poilievre) jokes yet. It really comes down to which of the choices is best able to push back on Trump, and keep Canadians employed. PP isn't high on the list. SD

Most opine that Trump wants to renegotiate trade agreements that do not expire until 2036. Create panic and fear, to bring the opponents to the table, .... and make the pounding stop. Versus immediate filing for compensation payments, please f*** *** until 2030 or so, and we drop the legal (at that time) if you're reasonable In the meantime ... bench clear for kicks, punch back as hard as you get hit, and keep punching until time-out gets called. Not the way it's supposed to go! The nice thing with competitive FX devaluation is that the orange man becomes a tar baby, standing on quicksand; the more chaos he creates, the sooner he sinks, and drowns. Rhetoric only works so long as nobody calls it, and it's the hundreds of thousands laid off ... who will be calling the bluff. The US is also deporting the illegals who would otherwise be the labour required; can't expand production/housing when there's nobody to do the work/build Executive orders are easy! actually turning the ship of state within any reasonable time frame? .... not so much ... no matter how many people you fire in the interim. It's also a big assumption that allies would want the tariffs to end early; schoolyards can bully as well ... and if it's working on the bully, why give up the leverage .... SD

Just as an indication of how cheap ... The latest 1PNPV10 is 2,253; 2PNPV10 is 3,092. Dated 09/30 numbers: Deduct 137 for working cap. Deduct 697 for non current liabilities, October 30 share count of 74.5. 1PNPV10 EV/Share is roughly CAD 19.05, closing share price today was CAD 7.52. Even if the convertible was at a ultra-conservative 80% of the 1PNPV10 EV/Share (ie: CAD 15.25), the conversion price would be > 2.0 the current price. Were the more normal 2PNPV10 EV/Share used as the base, the conversion price would be > 3.2 the current price. What do think happens to the current share price, should 5-10% of the existing share count be sold via a bought convertible; valuing the converted shares at north of CAD 15.00 Hence, the AimCo attraction. SD

The conservative candidate continues to experience a very material negative bounce in the polls; they are still ahead, but a clear majority is now very iffy; high probability of a subsequent leader replacement, and another minority government. AimCo (Alberta Pension Plan) has just culled their NY and Singapore offices, and opened a new position in OBE; the previous AimCo board was fired by Alberta's premier, and Mr Harper (prior conservative prime minister) is well connected with both. Wouldn't be surprising to see a new pipeline (as a mega project) financed primarily by Canada's federal government, the nations pension funds, and prepaid commitments by the WCSB heavy oil producers; OBE amongst them, and their contribution financed via a private placement convertible split between AimCo and another. OBE's growth is well ahead of schedule, and could well go beyond the target 50,000 boe/d; but they can expect to start encountering egress limitations in 2026/27. While OBE is dirt cheap, with the low share count, the only way you're getting anything in scale is via a bought deal. SD

Not a fan of gold while BTC is still low on the S curve; once BTC is high on the 'mature' portion of the S curve, we will probably think differently as Gold will be more competitive ... but many years away yet. We continue to hold/grow OBE as our main WCSB holding, particularly as production is getting heavier and egress is likely to continue improving. Ultimately it will end up with one of the big producers and become a dividend stream for us. Of course, there is not a lot of point to all this if Trump screws things up .... hence we need to protect ourselves. SD

Assume that the US imposes tariffs on Canadian exports. US consumers would pay more for the product and Canadian exporters would sell less of it at the higher price. Canadian exporters would also lay off workers, as there is now less work. Assume Canada responds with matching $ for $ tariffs, Canadian consumers would pay more for the US product and US exporters would sell less of it as the higher price. US exporters would lay off workers, as there is now less work. Both countries experience higher consumer prices, and higher unemployment. IF there are COMPARABLE, immediate and cheaper local substitutes for the import, it’s a win. If NOT, it’s a loss. Textbook economics. What if the exporter’s currency ALSO devalues? CAD devalues 25% to offset the 25% tariff, US consumers now pay the SAME for the product and Canadian exporters sell the SAME as they used to at this now higher price. Canadian consumers pay EVEN MORE for the US product and US exporters sell EVEN less of it as the higher CaD price. What if ALL the exporter’s now similarly devalue in response to the tariff? (CAD, EU, ASIA, BRICs, etc) and by about the same %? As cross-FX rates between the exporters will remain largely the same (carousel effect), there is little impact on trade between them; not so much for the US, which now ain't selling squat outside of the US along with record unemployment and inflation …. eventually the US devalues as well, and the cycle repeats. So …. thoughts as to how do people can protect themselves? Ever the heretic .... we look to the BTC-ETF ... and producers exporting essential product priced in USD. BTC-CAD benefiting BOTH from accelerating BTC adoption (raising the base price of BTC) AND the ongoing devaluation of CAD. Everyone with similar BTC-Domestic Currency ETFs, outside of the US similarly benefiting (raising the base price of BTC). And the more US disruption the more we all benefit ..... the right-hand leg of a long straddle. We also prefer oil/gas as it is priced primarily in USD, and can be sold anywhere, not just to the US. And similarly, the more US disruption the more we benefit .... the left-hand leg of a long straddle. The main risk is the orange man going silent ... pretty sure that ain't really much of a risk! SD