SharperDingaan

Look at the BTC options and futures markets. Total open interest at about the same number of days in the monthly contract. Compare over prior periods .... The most liquid way of shorting BTC/ETH is via these instruments ... so if you want to see what the treasuries and ETF's are actually doing SD

Overweight an intermediate CAD oilsands producer. Sell off 25% in the days following invasion, a 2nd tranche of 25% once the shock and awe settles down. 3rd tranche of 25% when there are calls for troops on the ground to implement regime change. Proceeds kept as cash to buy back later. Orange Boy badly needs a distraction from the tarrif ruling, and is rapidly running out of options for the mid-term elections. Starting a war has to be one of his best remaining options .... if tweets are not to turn into 'quacks' from a lame duck president SD

It's one of the better ones. There are also some ROV makers that do deep water undersea rig and pipeline connection for the offshore o/g industry .... as well as autonomous ROV's that fly over the length of pipelines and cables looking for leaks and breaks. SD

Look at the companies providing down-hole drilling technology and industrial off shore submersible robots for use on undersea o/g applications. Very specialized, very small floats of shares in obscure exchanges, and most now also looking at naval applications - undersea drones, etc. SD

Vacationing in Madeira; spent last night at the Carnival. Full on samba music through until midnight, along with an endless flow of bikinis. What's not to love SD

There is only collective wisdom (net of error cancellation), if there are large numbers of completely independent participants; in most cases, that is anything but the case. It is a simple thing for a few individuals to inflate the days market volume to make it appear that there is a lot of interest ... via a series of wash trades. 'Running the box' over extended periods of time, is a very common practice in the promotion of junior mining companies Simple to test. Compare the forward price curve of commodity X to the actuals that occurred ... if the wisdom is 'good', the difference between actual and predicted price should be at its lowest, at the time line predicted. It almost always, and very reliably isn't ... across multiple commodities, and multiple time frames. Yet for valuation purposes .... securities analysts are routinely required to use the current forward curves (as market estimates) to estimate the future cash flows, that will be discounted to arrive at 'intrinsic value' . Opportunities Prediction floats on the idea that something simple is better than nothing ... hence accuracy is not really a consideration. Whereas the opportunity rests on the failure of the promoter continually being able to convince enough people tomorrow, than white is the 'new black'; ideally via a sudden 'market discontinuity' . Also known as populist propaganda, that some are very good at. What you cannot achieve via hard analytics, you do via the madness of crowds instead. SD

If you spend a night in a Bedouin camp, ensure that you spend some time looking UP as well. The stars are spectacular, you are far enough inland for there to be no clouds, and the Bedouin will happily give you the Arab names to the constellations that you point to. Bring a fleece, as star gazing in the desert gets cold around midnight SD

It's a money line ... so the signal tends to be a little more reasonable. Doesn't mean the prediction will happen, so treat it accordingly. We use it as a confirmation tool; does the market see the same thing, what is the current probability, is it rising or falling, what is the timeline. We already have a hypothesis, this is just a sniff test. Also could have used the option market or looked at forwards ... if they are a possibility. Still new to it, so no real opinion at this point. But ..... like any betting line, it is wide open to manipulation, so you need to think like a bookie. Buy a cheap bet on 'X', sell the same bet later at a higher price, capture the spread SD

I like SD

USD and Euro also work very well but you don't have to walk around with bales of the stuff. Progress SD

Been to Morocco before, and will be going again winter 2027 Try to book road travel down the N8 from around Azrou through to Marrakech. You will start off in the snow of the High Atlas, and coast downhill all the way into the dry desert around Marrakech; alongside the classic ancient Citroen's doing it with no brakes! Take the train to Essaouira, and try to book road travel up the N1 through Cassablanca and Rabat. You will be travelling the west coast, the swimming and snorkelling is great, and also avoiding the migrants on the north coast. Base in Marrakech, do a tour through to Erfoud on the southern side of the High Atlas, and include a night camping in a Bedouin camp on the northern Sahara. Along the way you will pass through the High Atlas again, as well as both the Dades Gorge, and the Todra Gorge; each of which is often hiked on the various tours. The people are very friendly, but if you're in the lower half of a hilltop restaurant ... it's usually because someone from the French Foreign Legion is there ...... the actual hard asses, not the movie versions. Typically means that the mezza comes with great service! Enjoy. SD

As at 3:20 EST the market has now pushed WTI to USD 64.29 (up USD 0.74), and predicts a strike by Mar-31 (26% one-day rise). Inclined to think that air strikes will be sooner than that, as there is now so much ordinance in the area that it has started to bottle neck, and it will not be coming home. Gulf War II had a 5 month military buildup (Desert Shield) over 42 countries in 1990-91; near 25 years later, with better capabilities and fewer countries involved .... it should be a lot quicker. The current delay seems to be related to the runway crash of a fully loaded KC-46 tanker, at a time when the heavy lift air-bridge was also in full-swing. Those planes would not have just been transporting missile defence; as in Gulf War II, Desert Shield was followed with Desert Storm. Little reason to think this will be much different. Last time round, the intervention spiked crude up by 100% before settling down to around a 20% spike, from an initial price of USD 17.47/bbl. Today at USD 64.29/bbl, the oil price is 3.6x higher . Quite a range of possibilities .. even if you discount by 50% https://polymarket.com/event/us-strikes-iran-by https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War https://www.msn.com/en-in/politics/international-relations/trumps-iran-showdown-crumbles-as-refueling-kc46-tanker-fails-spectacularly-leaves-army-stranded/vi-AA1VHE35# https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart SD

The 20+ US friendly bases around Iran had advanced missile defence systems installed last week, an additional 700+ missiles were just sold to the Saudis, and Israel is itching to strike the Iranian missile capability ... alone, if needs be. Things are heating up. https://www.overtdefense.com/2026/02/06/us-approves-9-billion-pac-3-missile-sale-to-saudi-arabia/ https://x.com/JimFergusonUK/status/2020798200135717039 SD

There are lots of ways to make a dollar, not just one way Just keep in mind that while 100% over 3 years is a very good result, there are also people on this board who might do that in a year or less, and often do it every 3 years or so. Different risk tolerances, experience, investment expertise, etc. A great many in corporate finance use a 25% IRR as the minimum threshold return for a riskier multi-year project, and a great many of these types of project across the world are recommended by CFO's to investment committees for approval every year. That 100% over 3 years is a CAGR slightly higher than a 25% IRR; while good for a retail investor, it is just the table stake in corporate finance .... The good news is that COBF is a great training ground ... and a modest 20% improvement, would reduce your double time to 2.6 yrs SD

This is the cryptocurrency thread, a specific asset class. Native Coin, Alt Coin, NFT's, BTC-Treasuries, Miners, etc. are all fair game ... specific companies have their own ticker threads in the investment forum. Most people are looking for highest investment return per unit of risk; the only restrictions being legality, investor morality, and the volatility. No illegal drugs/arms/protection/transshipment ..... though thankfully, the legal drug makers, arms makers, 'roofs', and logistic companies are OK . Obviously, not all stocks are for everybody either (tobacco, sugar, oil, crypto, etc.). Like it or not, as has been repeatedly pointed out, BTC has produced incredible returns. For some the volatility is such that it doesn't matter, 'it's not investable'; whereas for others; with the runway, risk tolerance and ability to mitigate the volatility, those returns are the attraction. We make our choices, and live the consequences ... It is just not what folks prefer to hear. SD

All those hoards of coins/gold jewellery in clay pots buried in the ground ... that keep getting turned up by archaeologists all over the pace Buried in fields at night, before the owner had to run, hopefully to return sometime later (if they lived) to unearth it. All those Egyptian pharaohs, taking their wealth with them, and plagued by legions of tomb robbers forever more after their death ..... Businesses are great, so long as you can sell them when you wish/need to (age &/or change in circumstance). You may have so much stock in a listed company, that your stock sales may adversely move the price .... if you can move that quantity at all, and at a price that you think is fair. A private business may not be saleable at all, unless you are a temporary part of the package, and willing/able to offer vendor take back financing .... actual retirement may take you years to execute. Most often, you will be trying to self liquidate, by selling assets vs the business itself; while liquidity events can be created ... you are exchanging for fiat ... a portion of which will go into BTC/Gold to store what is not immediately required. A compromise is limited partnerships in small businesses, that are intentionally kept small. Have fun while you more than recover your capital over the years, and assume that you will get nothing in an eventual bankruptcy. All bonus if it actually gets sold to someone else. Different point of view SD

BTC (Digital)/Gold (Analog) is where you store your value; the fiat currency you sell it for is what you spend. The fiat received could be USD, Euro, Yuan, or Ruble ... it really doesn't matter; the fiat devalues (via inflation/money printing), you just get more toilet paper for your BTC/Gold. Exchange rates change every day; when there is peace in the world ... USD 71,000/BTC, when the USD loses its reserve currency status .... USD 171,000/BTC. Simply because the once almighty USD has gone to sh1te Sure ... you're rich in the US! ... but it is only in US pesos .... that few outside of the US actually want. The price of BTC is purely a supply/demand thing ... measured in fiat currency. Demand changing every day as circumstance and utility changes, supply moving as mining and hoarding changes add/subtract from the pile. Technical Analysis for pricing signals in fiat currency 'X', supply/demand forecasting for the price of BTC itself. Central Bank influence is indirect at best. BTC supersedes the more direct control of Central Banking, which is why it's a threat. Level 2 solutions improve BTC utility, and fiat devaluation magnifies it; the why it's worth much more in a 3rd world county, than it is in a 1st world one ... where money printing is much less prevalent ( ... but still routine) Keynesian economics has its uses; mitigation of widespread misery (escape from depressions, war time rebuilding, debt devaluation) being the major ones ... but it comes at the cost of continuous fiat devaluation. Devalue at the same rate as your trading partners, and there is no net impact (carousel effect); devalue at a faster rate (USD), and the currency becomes progressively cheaper versus your trading partners. Today's state borrowing in fiat currency 'X' to rebuild infrastructure, repaid later in devalued fiat currency 'X'; the larger the nominal borrow, the better. So .... as people world wide have done for centuries; store your wealth in BTC/Gold and convert to fiat only as you need to. How much in BTC, how, and where? largely dependent upon your use and privacy requirements Not what many would prefer to promote. SD

One needs to be strategic; averaging up to the desired quantity via a series of purchases is little different to agile project management. No addition (at a higher purchase price) until the company delivers at each new stage. SD

Everyone has different reasons for holding BTC, and they change daily; everything from betting slip speculation, through to store of value. The various associated level 2 solutions from CB digital currency and 'stable-coin' through to 'lightning networks' ... add utility. They are just different tools for different purposes for use anywhere in the world. You can be of either a 'analog' or a 'digital' mindset; they both work, but the mindsets are tribal ..... there is only one right way, it is this way, and you know nothing! Of course you can also be both ... and those experienced in the mechanics of 'crypto' will be There will always be a Statler and Waldorf ... but nothing prevents an enterprising lad from selling tickets to the show https://muppet.fandom.com/wiki/Statler_and_Waldorf SD

BTC @ USD 67,000 We will very likely unwind our pair trades around mid march, after o/g reserve reports and Q4 earnings are out, and there has been some time for M&A; doubtful that BTC will be significantly higher at that time than it is today, and our o/g could well run up another 10%+ between now and then. Should both legs deliver as hoped, we will have done extremely well. But ... the BTC repurchase will only be up to 80% of our pre trade BTC-ETF unit count; not what it was. 1) We will need to step away, as this round trip was anything but normal course business. 2) There will be industry changes after this, dry powder would be useful. 3) I'm supposed to be retired! SD

+1 SD

Liquidity enables the BTC-Treasury's to sell paper, and buy more BTC ... pushing price up. Corporate/state/municipal treasurers roll new cash into BTC, pushing BTC higher, and capture the gains via derivative sales. Retail suddenly has no margin calls and 'buys the dip' ... further pushing the price up. Campaign buying, that is the opposite of the campaign selling everyone is talking about. Hence, the concept that the price of BTC is a function of liquidity. BTC-Treasuries are desperately trying to persuade corporate/state/municipal treasurers that they should invest in 'crypto yield' securities ... versus long BTC and CME options/futures. If successful the corporate/state/municipal treasurers take dog sh1te in return, give up hard cash, and the BTC-Treasury gets beneficial ownership over their long BTC and CME options/futures ... to put up as additional margin collateral. When you can no longer buy BTC, try to 'rent' it instead. More than a few BTC-Treasuries are now worth more dead than alive, with market caps < the MV of the crypto hoard. Debtors have incentive to force debt to equity swaps that will give them material majority control over the hoard, consolidate BTC-Treasury entities via merger, re-brand, rejig the capital stack, and emerge as oligarch competitors to a MSTR. Similar process around the miners, often the same lenders ... and all done with minimal/no fresh cash injection. Brutal, but it's a market process, long overdue, and a necessary part of the eco-system evolution. We're a quarter of the way through this century, and mom/pop de-fi is just not up to the robustness required of modern participants. Nobody likes it, but consolidation is inevitable. It's going to hurt a lot of people, so give them some space. SD

Stories planted to float the idea of a fed reserve liquidity injection. Last time around it was 5B+ and lifted the BTC price by around 6K. Bessent's rejection killed the hope, so now a bail out rests on Orange Boy ordering one. Probably will occur, but not until BTC demonstrates a stable bottom for a time. SD

No morphing, I'm just trying out a new approach that I've termed 'context analysis'. It's essentially a sniff test of a forecast outcome (via a social media feed, technical or fundamental analysis) against an independent supply/demand assessment; if the two conclusions broadly concur, I have something . So far it has worked very well, on pair trades, and one or two others as well . Technical analysis vs supply/demand. The chartists proclaim 'X' if 'Y'! ... but no one looks at the supply/demand of the stock, or the time frame. An earnings announcement with bad news triggers a panic mass sell off on the day ... this dog is utter sh1te! But 10 days later ? ..... it will often be trading at a higher price Not a lot of risk, and typically, the more who follow the stock, the bigger the change Scale/active management. Assume a minimum DKK 25,000 per round trip, 50% chance of being right, 1/2 made on the sale and 1/2 on the repurchase. Typically a sale of 50% of the position, ahead of the event. The bigger the resultant expected change, the smaller the position required. To make it work you need a deep and liquid market, to be holding the stock long term, and actively managing ... not really worth it unless there is a lot of volatility. Volatility. The more the better ... so Orange Boy, social media, the press, and blogs for everything in live time! .... are now your friends . NVO is a more modest application .... BTC and oil/gas are a little more aggressive . Different times, different tools, and the more propaganda the better; as in Judo, use your opponent to serve your purpose. Very modest balls, just applied risk management NVO. The thesis is the weight loss drugs commercialising successfully (the tide coming in); anything on that tide will rise, and by about the same amount. However, waves have peaks and troughs; hence when it's storming, a liner is better than a row-boat (buy quality). Against which ... the longer your hold, the lower the % of stormy days there will be, and the more the thesis will dominate. Stormy days now become your friend ..... SD

+1. Just keep in mind that when the entire industry is hated (oil/gas); all the industry RSI's will be low. Compare against the company peers to avoid getting burned SD