SharperDingaan

Sorry, but no, I am not going to hint at or publicize it. Do your own DD and back-testing to arrive at the confidence level. SD

Sadly the string ends in the old adages of the bad drives out the good, and never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers. Congratulations; we're all the worse off for it. Wachtwoord just expresses the libertarian view, and the ethos that goes all the way back to the creators of bitcoin protocol. To find out just how far out of touch you actually are, refer to the cypherpunk manifesto. "For privacy to be widespread it must be part of a social contract. People must come and together deploy these systems for the common good. Privacy only extends so far as the cooperation of one's fellows in society. We the Cypherpunks seek your questions and your concerns and hope we may engage you so that we do not deceive ourselves. We will not, however, be moved out of our course because some may disagree with our goals." https://www.activism.net/cypherpunk/manifesto.html Like it or not, real estate can be expropriated at any time, and that is part of the risk. If I own real estate in the US, I just don't think it will ever happen; however, if I own real estate in the 2nd/3rd world it happens everyday. What does expropriation actually mean? your signature, or your brains on the title deed; at the price I gave you - don't really care which. Seizure without negotiation, is just much easier with real estate than it is with BTC. https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/expropriated Like it or not, capital markets has had the tools to put a accurate price on BTC for quite some time. It just isn't widely publicized, and is worth a great deal more the more restricted the distribution. Derive it yourself, or take your chances; your choice. Like it or not, BTC and paper fiat currency co-exist as payment polar opposites, each serving different markets. Paper fiat currency is being progressively replaced with CBDC, and the USD as a reserve currency is being progressively replaced with the 3rd of the different types of CBDC. The US is not the center of the universe, and if you believe in privacy - you are very thankful that BTC exists as an alternative. To the short-term trading community, BTC is just another trading sardine. To the long-term orientated community, BTC holds great promise but we're not exactly sure what that is yet - or how it works out. To the Muppet Show peanut gallery it's just entertainment ... until I steal all your money In this thread we have members from all these communities. We take the long term view, and we know how to put an accurate price on BTC; we also aren't the only ones. The real value is the underlying blockchain technology, ability to automate most business processes via the use of smart contracts, and ability to automatically settle via a payment system (BTC) designed for a zero-trust environment. Replacing BTC with CBDC just speeds up global acceptance and adoption, at the price of privacy - a 'reasonable' compromise for the vast bulk of everyday transactions. To participate I either go the blockchain portfolio approach (ie: Overstock), the crypto as an asset class ETF (BTC, ETH, Stable Coin, NFT, etc.) approach, or both. If you didn't know that .... guess who the patsy is. SD

Stability/invoicing. Every international company bills in various foreign currencies and does not hedge its P&L exposure. It's a routine and accepted business risk, materially cheaper than hedging, and net FX exposures typically wash out over time. BTC is just another foreign currency. Liquidity is a function of asset quality. I hold T-Bills 'cause I know I can sell them easily, and with minimal haircut - even when there is almost no money in the monetary system. As I move down the quality scale, asset marketability declines and the haircut rises. You hold T-Bills, not BTC, if you want liquidity; if the liquidity wasn't there when you needed it, that was on you - you made a bad decision. Fiat currency is only portable if/when your goldilocks nation drops capital controls. Capital controls are enforced in most places, and BTC enables their circumvention. Portability. Security is on you; if one insists on being lax, or simply stupid; one deserves everything coming. Most would treat the inevitable hack publicity as buying opportunities. The reality is BTC enforces individual accountability, there are no regulations to protect you from your own stupidity; whether that be poor security choices, poor understandings, investment immaturity, or just plain laze. As most people just aren't comfortable with accountability, it creates opportunities. SD

Read the data from the public block (immutable) into the data base. Process within the database. Immutability and speed combine SD

Lot of very confused people .... Per the Satoshi Nakamoto paper; BTC is just a payment app using a native coin, blockchain technology and bitcoin protocol. The native coin is BTC, It enables payment is a zero-trust environment, and 'lay' people (you and I) typically refer to it as a currency. We can use a currency BOTH to pay for things AND as an investment. If I live in the US, USD is used to pay for things. However, if I live in a Canada, using USD to pay for things is ALSO AN INVESTMENT - my 'investment' gain/loss is the number of USD purchased x the difference in FX rates when I bought/sold the USD. But I hold the USD to pay for things, its investment and store of value properties are secondary. Same as BTC, nothing more than 'belief' actually 'backs' a USD. A USD bill is not supported by an actual cashflow, it's simply supported by a theoretically proportional claim on the nations net assets and tax receipts, that we 'believe' the Federal Reserve will honor. If OK with the 'In God We Trust' printed on bills - welcome to the USD! and its use as a global reserve currency. If that's a problem - welcome to the ALTERNATIVE of BTC. Like it or not BTC has an IV, and the value depends on why and how long it is being held; the days market price is just the highest IV at the time. The same thing applies to each of the myriad of token on various crypto exchanges. BTC trades for more than a DogSh1te token because it has a higher IV (hedgeable CME futures/options market). Whether you agree or not, is irrelevant. Ultimately, you either 'get' this or you don't. SD

Just because they are bleeding assets doesn't mean that they automatically bankrupt. The fact that they are still in business implies that there is currently more value in squeezing the orange to extract its juice, than simply crashing it. Of course, eventually the juice runs out ..... SD

Not really .. it just takes confidence in your view - right or wrong. If you think something is going to go down, but are not willing to back your conviction by taking action, you have no business doing this. SD

Own opinion.... GXE recognizes that they need to buy something, and that it would go better if they could also issue a block of shares at a much higher price. At the time (Q3 22) they had just come off the high FCF of Q2 22, paid off all their debt, and the market view was that dividends were king. With no debt, and a high dividend, the Gordon model would support a much higher share price, and away they would be. Once the deal was done they could justify dropping the dividend in favor of further development, and maintaining a very strong Balance Sheet. Very rational and hard to fault, but to maintain the dividend it meant committing the company to WTI at a minimum USD 80. Sadly, it hasn't worked out yet. To optimize their WACC GXE needs to take on short term debt, and term it out once they buy something. If you think WTI is going to average > US 80 over 2023 (most people), it makes a lot of sense to maintain the dividend and borrow short term to cover any dividend shortfall; paying the debt back as soon as they generate excess CF > US 80. As/when the market thinks different ... it's an opportunity with a 10%+ cash yield. The reality of course is that small resource companies (o/g, mining, etc.) can only pay special dividends, and only as business permits. And if there aren't many shares outstanding ... it often makes more sense to invest the cash flow surplus in M&A/production versus share buybacks. There is a reason why smaller o/g servicing companies typically grow through M&A and do not pay a fixed dividend on common. However, if Mr Market wants to be manically depressed, we're happy to oblige SD

Welcome to the differential! Net proceeds/bbl = price cap - transport - bribes, and paid in local Yuan/Rupees vs USD. SD

OBE is a very good long term growth investment. Unloved, massive torque to higher prices, 20 cent dollars, etc. Three very different o/g plays, each of which could be a stand-alone company by itself, and each with very good rock. Well run, but ultimately we see it broken up and pieces merging into others in 2-3 years. WCP is a core long term income investment. Well run, continually rising cash yield, and we have been adding for years as opportunities present themselves. Ideally they end up with the OBE Cardium at the end of this o/g cycle. GXE is a speculative investment. Above $80 WTI the current dividend remains affordable, but they really need to buy some better assets/do a merger, take on some debt to do it, and cut the dividend entirely in favor of developing the assets obtained. Lots of good opportunities, but an indefinite ongoing dividend isn't one of them. We know these three very well, and as a result can swing trade for incremental alpha fairly reliably. More than offsets the likelihood that they may not be the optimum choices in todays market. Choose your poison. SD

Good catch. The extra 590K bbl/day (890-300 existing) is 24 500K tanker loads every 3 weeks. Listen to the market, and apparently the only way that Cdn heavy crude gets to US refiners is via pipelines headed south (Keystone, etc.). Shut down Keystone, and you get dirt-cheap heavy crude at Galveston, etc. Little realized is that when TMP comes on-line, Cdn crude can get to Galveston by tanker, or go directly west to Asian refiners with hungrier and much more advanced refineries. Keystone either strands permanently or a deal gets cut to reopen it. And as pipe transport is typically cheaper than boat, and it's a more direct route .... if/when Keystone ever reopens - differentials permanently drop even further. Also little credited at present is Cdn C02 pipeline sequester displacing the o/g 'windfall taxation' commonly seen everywhere else. Ultimately, it's a nod from environmentalists that will eventually translate into tar sands becoming 'greener', and more egress flowing south. Keystone eventually reopening. All of which adds up to the WCSB being a very good place to be over the long term. Closely followed by Newfoundland exporting NGL to Europe. SD

It wasn't Murray; let the poor man rest in peace! It would also seem that the 'manual' got sanitized, and spawned "The Dirty Rotten Secrets of the Small Cap Markets" https://sites.google.com/site/chartinganalysis/home/murray-pezim-rules-of-trading A favorite are these three: 22. THE SPOUSE FACTOR. This could also be a corollary to Murphy's Law for a deal. The wife wants a new house, a new car, etc. And the promoter or insider sells, sells, sells to afford these new toys. Down goes the stock price. 37. THE SECRET OF THE NEWSLETTER WRITER. Any newsletter writer providing ongoing reportage on Canadian mining or small cap stocks has a vested interest, whether disclosed or not. Someone is paying the freight and rarely is it the subscriber. (The writer either has a position or is being paid or hopes to become "famous" by covering a specific stock.) Publishing a newsletter is a very expensive proposition, with a high casualty rate. Look at which "popular" newsletters were published during the late 1960s or the early 1980s and see if any are still being published today. 50. THE ULTIMATE RULE. Paper is paper and cash is cash. The only reason you are holding paper instead of cash is you honestly believe your paper will eventually be worth more than the cash. Amateurs buy paper. Professionals convert their paper to cash. Cash is King. Paper is essentially worthless if there are no buyers. Always marry richer than you are, use media columnist's as 'beaters', hold your core capital in fully paid off houses and treasuries !!! ... and may you never be out of renters! SD

Nah, this is just working the box! https://thedeepdive.ca/how-market-manipulation-works/ There was a time when one of the best at this, did his thing at the VSE. Widely acknowledged as a master grifter at his trade, he contributed 'technical details' to a ghost written 'hits list' history of Vancouver Stock Exchange scandals, that subsequently became the 'manual'. Originally intended as a joke bet (and tax write-off), the history was privately published in a small print run; 20 copies of which were signed by him, each with a different message (penalty for losing a bet). If you ever get to read the 'manual', you will very quickly recognize how good he was really was - and its potential application to a great many other industries! Sadly the man is dead now ..... but those 'manuals' are going to live on for a very long time!! SD

2023 Pipeline Additions: https://pipeline.ca/wp-content/uploads/PLCAC-Pipeline-Project-Work-2022-1.pdf The big one is the 300K bbl/day Alberta>BC TMP oil line coming on stream 2H2023 (maybe). Lots of NGTL additions coming onstream in 2023 - not just the TC Energy addition. Canadian heavy oil refill of the SPR will mostly go south by rail vs pipeline. A DOT-117 tank car holds 28,600 US Gallons (680 bbl), and a 500K bbl VZ tanker load (small) is 735 tank cars. As trains are typically restricted to roughly 35 tank cars, this is 21 trains - or one train/day for 3 weeks; 23,800 bbl/day (35 x 680) of egress. So what? That 300K bbl/day west coast TNP expansion is 12+ 500K bbl tanker loads every 3 weeks. Enough to permanently move the differential dial downward, and in a very material way. Dividend thing. The Gordon dividend model rewards a stable dividend, and the higher it is the higher the 'floor' value of the stock. Of course it is just not valid for a resource company, but so long as the company is public - a market reality. Typically the share value is allowed to collapse when the dividend is eventually cut/eliminated in the down cycle, and the company quietly taken private. SD

The CNQ calculations are off. CNQ is lowering its BE/Bbl by using operating leverage; higher throughput dividing into existing fixed cost. However CNQ is also paying the heavy oil differential (WTI - WCS) of roughly USD 17.16/bbl (CAD 23); and will have higher royalties/taxes and transport costs than OXY (assume CAD 22/bbl). 20 * (100 - 40 - 23 diff - 22 royalty/tax) = 300 However CNQ also has the tailwind of lower differentials as new pipeline egress comes on line, OXY doesn't. Differentials fall 12/bbl (50%), and you get 540 versus 300 - or 80% more than OXY for no additional capex. And there are TWO pipeline expansions supposedly coming on stream over 2023 .... Of course, when everyone is a hater ... there's no new pipeline egress until the pipeline is actually delivering. Or when driving at 100 km/h, there's no obstruction in front of you until you're 20 meters away. Lot of people are going to get rich SD

Reserve quality, size, porosity, pressure, current/future extraction technique(s), presence of collection/processing facilities, etc. materially affect commercial viability, which radically changes the size of the reserve. The reserve may also be primarily a producer of condensates, and sour/sweet gas, and heavy vs light oil. Occasionally, innovations will also materially change the numbers (ie: horizontal drilling, long laterals, CO2 flood, etc.), but it's very reservoir specific. Example: Some of the companies drilling Alberta's Clearwater/Seal/Bluesky have produced exceptional results by drilling vertically in closely packed ranks vs by drilling horizontally using long laterals. Should it become mainstream, the innovation will make these reservoirs among the most valuable in Canada - high cold flows of 90%+ heavy oil, < 3% depletion/yr, drilling costs at a fraction of that for horizontal, and local collection/processing facilities already in place . SD

4-5 simultaneous plays ... WTI/Brent spike past USD 100 over the winter. Ukraine disruption, SPR fill to release associated gas to Europe, etc. Higher WTI. Margins on WCSB heavy become comparable/better than light, higher still with changes in drilling practice. Lower diffs as pipeline/rail egress timing firms up, SPR contracted fill, instant $10/bbl+ margin boost on all heavy. M&A in a frothy market. Can't div, can't buyback, debt paid down ... only drilling and M&A is left. Investor psychology; FOMO, MOMO, boom mentality, rub it in into those eastern bastards! While they will not all be in play, or dominating, at the same time; it's hard to see how at least a couple of them don't impact the year. SD

A couple of one-liners from the dark continent! https://www.motivation.africa/top-30-funny-south-african-jokes.html The only way to know that small things irritate is when you share a room with a mosquito at night. The quickest means of communication is to trust a girl with a rumor and then make her vow not to tell You don’t need a parachute to skydive, but you will need one if you want to do it twice. The sole purpose of your middle name is so you know when you are in real trouble with your mother No matter how far you urinate, the last drop always falls at your feet Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large numbers. You cannot run and scratch your anus at the same time. The monkey who tries to see the hunter clearly collects bullets in its eyes SD

Wherever possible, just walk or bike everywhere, and eat better but less. Physically move, experience the world around you, and think independently. Throw the skinny bike seat away and get a real one that doesn't break your ass. Go with the small quantity of chef prepared steak and a top-shelf wine, versus the buckets of 'line cook' fare. Periodically do a bike trip in someplace new (ideally Europe). Taxi's move your shit from hotel to hotel; you just ride the bike between places, about 40-50 km/day, and take the whole day to do it. Experience the culture, stop whenever and wherever you feel like it. Share a bottle of 1st Cru every 2nd night with friends. Tossing metal around is for machines! SD

Canadian WCSB, plus money off the table. If Canadian o/g goes as many hope, it's going to be quite the ride, and everybody is going to be certain they are brilliant with their 50-150% YTD returns! When that happens to you .... take most of your money off the table To quote the famous bumper sticker: “Please God, give me one more oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away next time.” SD

Another very good year at > 100%, TWR. Measured in $CAD equivalents. We were lucky, and robust risk-management saved our ass. 2022 was also the last of our high growth years, starting 2023 we have different requirements. O/G (OBE/CVE/WCP/GXE) did very well. Risk management did well, forcing a material mid-year trim and capital repatriation. Swing trades did well, capturing much of the Q422 fade in O/G expectations. O/G servicing (PD/CET) did well; related risk management could have been better. BTC/Ukraine did vey well, but mostly by luck vs plan. Ukraine involvement delayed BTC investment and avoided the bust. Ukraine BTC profit materially higher than expected, released capital back to swing trades. Returns are net of a material mid year capital repatriation and asset diversification, with results to show in 2023/24. Starting 2023, capital reinvestment takes advantage of the better and more reliable yield opportunities presenting themselves. SD

If I just want a short term speculation, there are many much more effective options than simply buying/selling BTC. I could wait for a greater fool to show up, in literally thousands of much cheaper investment vehicles; all with much more appealing story lines to the punters of the day. BTC as an inflation hedge, is measured from date of trade through to PTD. Until all BTC are issued; every time the BTC mining reward halves - the current BTC inflation rate drops 50%. Once all BTC have been issued the BTC inflation rate is zero, and BTC becomes a perfect inflation hedge. My BTC is down 70% this year has nothing to do with its inflation hedge property; you just made a sh1te trade If I just want a short term trading sardine, BTC isn't it. Momentum trading off popularity, only works if you don't get caught holding the bag. SD

Expressing this as an algorithm ... IV = PV expected future cashflows + PV utility Utility = highest utility value as an inflation store of value, utility as an alternate to bullion as a store of value, utility as a private payment system. Valuation depends on the holders needs and view. It is hard to value the PV utility (... we lack the information); therefore IV = PV expected future cashflows (asset definition). BTC does not have future cashflows, therefore IV = zero. Q.E.D! And .... the world goes batsh1t crazy !!! ..... Why? Because .... IV = PV utility. > Finance folks go apesh1t, WTF!! this sh1te has ZERO value, and yet the market says no. Repeatedly! > Libertarians go apesh1t. Freedom from CB tyranny has obvious value! finance folks just don't get it!! > 2nd/3rd world folks go apesh1t. Fungible, portable, wealth has obvious value! Rich folks just don't get it !!! PV utility is simply cash paid for the future benefit. In the GAAP world. 'Goodwill' - as the amount paid > PV market cash flows. In the trading world. Whatever the counterparty agrees to pay for it. Hence to value BTC, one has to value the PV utility to its beneficial owner. Everybody will have a different number, and it will be higher the longer the beneficial owner is willing to hold. If you simply held BTC as a hedge against inflation ... every year the worlds CB's inflate their currencies - you benefit by a portion of that total inflation divided over 21M token. Every year, BTC values at a higher fiat price (USD, EUR, GBP, CAD, etc.) Different take SD

NATO has far more money than Russia, and much of the spend is just domestic recycling within their local arms industry. Weapon, missile, and bullet inventories need to be fired off, NATO reaps the benefit of replacement war time spending just as Russia does, the destruction remains in Ukraine, and armories update with better and more up to date replacements. But like any good business, when costs > benefits, negotiate 'peace' (Feb-23 peace summit). The keys to power run the show (dictators playbook), and their mouthpieces execute ..... Most would expect the Ukraine to get everything back including the Crimea, a new Eastern European world-order 'agreement', and the early retirements of both leaders. The political solution. Political solutions take a while, but the result is stability for a good 10-30 years until the cycle repeats. Given that Europe averages at least one war every 70 years or so, 30 years of stability is not a bad outcome. SD

To many of those in finance; Asset Value = PV Future Cash Flows. That's it !! No think dogma. No cash flow? there's no asset. Yet as soon as we do an acquisition, it no longer applies. Whenever we buy an asset above market price, we record the price difference on our books as 'goodwill', supported with a schedule of expected synergy savings; under US GAAP that difference is whatever we say it is - and we amortize it over 40yrs. Under IFRS, it's prove it or lose it, annually. Total asset value = market price + 'goodwill'. Goodwill = the PV of your 'minds eye' future synergy savings, evidenced via a cash payment. Isn't that identical to what Intrinsic Value is - the PV of 'minds eye' future cash flow, evidenced via a cash payment (a buy/sell of BTC)? Point? Intrinsic value will be a different number for different people, and it's just a PV of expected future benefits (not just future cash flow). You either get that, or you just don't - no think dogma wins. SD