SharperDingaan

Oil Prices Rise as Protests in Iran Escalate https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Rise-as-Protests-in-Iran-Escalate.html On Friday, oil was supported by escalating protests in Iran and President Donald Trump’s comments late on Thursday that Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, was planning on fleeing the country following the protests in the OPEC producer demanding a change in regime. The Ayatollah is “looking to go someplace”, President Trump told reporters. Maybe sometime later this evening, EST, he gets a helping hand. SD

Orchestrated rioting across Tehran last night, magically starting at 8 pm, and a regime cutoff of all in-country internet/social media etc. Yet images of the rioting on western media this morning .... Mossad hard at work? It would seem that some of the regime leaders, along with their families, have already been moved to nearby states (not Russia). Khomeini supposedly evacuated last night, if the media is to believed Polymarket odds are a useful predictor .... https://polymarket.com/ At time of writing .... Khomeini out by Jan-31, slightly higher than a US invasion of Greenland. An Israeli strike on Iran by Jan-31, at near double the odds on Khomeni. Asia suddenly rushed to buy Saudi cargoes (put on sale), and WTI is rapidly moving towards USD 60/bbl. Interesting times. SD

The Vietnam version of the AC-130J Ghostrider Gunship was nicknamed "Puff, The Magic Dragon". Puff has grown up quite a bit since then. SD

As suspected, it isn't going well for Orange Boy with Congress/Venezuela ... It would also seem that someone is about to receive a visit in the near future; hence, perhaps it's a good time to monitor polymarket . WTI is now trading at about the same price that it was, just before Maduro was snatched. Republicans break ranks to halt future Trump attacks on Venezuela https://ca.news.yahoo.com/republicans-break-ranks-halt-future-171946093.html Five members of the president’s party broke ranks to support a War Powers Act resolution. The new resolution blocks the president from using the military against Venezuela without authorisation from Congress. The vote of 52-47 now stands as one of the largest shows of Republican resistance on Capitol Hill so far during Trump’s second presidency. Is Iran the target? US Special Ops spotted training in UK airbase https://www.theweek.in/news/middle-east/2026/01/08/is-iran-the-target-us-special-ops-seen-training-with-osprey-rotors-exercise-in-the-uk.html Crack soldiers were seen rappelling from the aircraft at RAF Fairford and RAF Mildenhall, key UK bases for the U.S. Air Force, hinting that the Americans could be prepping for another mission, according to The Times. At least 14 C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft and two heavily armed AC-130J Ghostrider gunships landed at three RAF bases in Suffolk and Gloucestershire since Saturday. Ospreys are usually used by the US Air Force’s 7th Special Operations Squadron, which specialises in long-range infiltration, extraction, and resupply. The Ospreys left Fairford on Wednesday morning, and have “gone dark” on flight trackers, according to The Times. We live in interesting times. SD

Sometimes .... the context is intentionally lost October 30, 2025 An independent petroleum reserves and resources evaluation has confirmed world-class hydrocarbon potential in Greenland’s Jameson Land basin, identifying more than 13 billion barrels of prospective recoverable oil resources across 58 prospects. https://www.worldoil.com/news/2025/10/30/greenland-s-jameson-land-basin-holds-13-bbbl-oil-potential-new-report-finds/ SD

'El Gordo' is the Spanish Christmas Lottery, Lotería de Navidad; also known as the 'fat one'. https://www.idealista.com/en/news/lifestyle-in-spain/2025/12/11/876226-spanish-christmas-lottery-el-gordo-dates-tickets-and-prizes A full Spanish Christmas Lottery ticket is split into ten smaller parts called décimos, and almost everyone buys just a décimo rather than the whole thing. Because there are so many prize tiers and smaller payouts, your chance of winning something is much higher than with many weekly lotteries, even though the first prize odds are still very long. The Christmas Lottery’s Extraordinary Draw will distribute a total of €2.772 billion in prizes, around €70 million more than last year, so there’s an enormous amount of money being shared out across Spain. For 2025, the first prize, the Gordo of Christmas, pays €4 million per series, the second prize €1,250,000 per series, and the third €500,000 per series. There are also two fourth prizes of €200,000 per series and eight fifth prizes of €60,000 per series. Poorer people often have a colourful Pinata (El Gordo) strung up for Navidad, that the kids bash to get at the small candies inside; the bigger (fatter) and more colourful the better ... hence the application to Trump. El Gordo also happens to be a Mexican drug dealer ... very Trump https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2026/01/07/cae-el-gordo-junto-con-ocho-miembros-de-la-barredora-del-cjng-en-puebla/ SD

The cargo's of the other tankers that successfully ran the blockade, are being rerouted to the US versus China as part of the recently negotiated oil purchase. 3rd party at sea ship-to-ship transfer remaining a possibility, so that the sanctioned oil price becomes the market price . SD

There is a strong possibility that Orange Boy is having trouble getting 'after the fact' Congressional permission for the Venezuela thing, and anything else ... hence lots of distraction to keep the eyes off. Urgency, 'cause if the 'shock and awe' doesn't go his way, the senate flips and he's the orange pinata/lame duck for the rest of his presidency. That HUGE orange 'El Gordo' is kinda hard to miss SD

It would seem that Iran is very close to regime change .... Iran’s supreme leader will ‘flee for Russia’ if protests overwhelm security. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reportedly has a "plan B" to flee to Russia with up to 20 aides and family if ongoing protests overwhelm security forces.This contingency plan would be activated should the army and security forces tasked with suppressing the unrest begin to defect or fail to follow orders. https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/ayatollah-khamenei-iran-protests-russia-b2894827.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed Yesterday, the Jerusalem Post was reporting sources telling Mossad of recent mass desertions within the Iranian military. If true, the clock has already started .... Rapid Russian Il-76 cargo deployments into Iran underscore crisis-driven military reinforcement, heightened regime stabilisation efforts, and deepening strategic alignment between Moscow and Tehran. The confirmed landing of a fifth Russian Ilyushin Il-76 heavy military transport aircraft in Iran within a tightly compressed 48-hour window represents a conspicuous escalation in Moscow’s physical support to Tehran. Militarily, the repeated Il-76 landings compress decision-making timelines for Israel and the United States by raising the possibility that Iran’s integrated air-defence network, electronic warfare resilience, and domestic surveillance density are being quietly but materially upgraded in near-real time. https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/russia-il76-military-airlift-iran-fifth-plane-tehran-escalation/ It is highly unlikely that cargo planes arriving full .... are departing empty; or that those disposed to strike, are going to allow much further upgrading. Friday nights after NA markets have closed, seems to be favoured when potential outcomes are likely to move markets. The mysteries are whether the powers that be 1) allow 'Plan-B', 2) choose to intervene, and 3) whether those military upgrades are Chinese, ahead of a Chinese takeover of Iranian production .... as China also needs oil, and are competent at producing from oil fields as well. Whatever the outcomes; each has the potential to move markets. If it occurs... a hell of a way to start the year. SD

Put up enough of a bounty, and the codes magically change just before the snatch ... Demonstrate capability via a snatch out of Russia vs an assassination, and nobody is going to bother you Of course, if you're unable to snatch the opposition first .... all that you can do is try to eliminate the likely home suspects first. However, eventually Caeser goes down to a group 'hug' on the Ides of March; and a one-way flight out of Russia ... baring the odd tall building The 'new' guy takes over, Putin looses all his diplomatic privileges; do what you want with him! SD

Putin has Spetnaz, helicopters, fighters, etc. as well. Just a matter of trying under cover of a drone attack. 3 men on a boat, but one of them tosses honey onto you ... while the boat is crossing a field of fire ants . Fall off the boat and you're eaten alive. Very Russian .... and when there are no high buildings ... SD

It is much more likely that Putin tries to snatch Zelenski; 'cause if the US can do it, we can too. It will be to Europe to see that the attempt fails, and put a 'shock & awe' bounty on Putin's extraction; the 'let's play' - Euro 250M+, in BTC, to attract sovereigns, mercenaries, and locals ... no questions asked. Add another Euro 50M every 4 months, and Putin becomes a walking ATM ... in a very dangerous place It is becoming quite clear that both Venezuela and Columbia are going to resist. According to Trump/Rubio, we will 'run' Venezuela via control of their oil exports (ongoing warship embargo). Carrot & stick; do as we say and we'll allow cargoes to leave, don't and we snatch/topple you ... same as we did with the other guy. Have to think that the same ships, will doing the same things ... to Columbia as well. Yet a number of VZ tankers slipped the blockade on the night of the attack ... hence it would appear that bribery is alive and well Russians versus Americans to restore the oil production isn't sustainable for any length of time. Bribing to minimise the ongoing sabotage of facilities, and maximise oil exports, also has limits ... as every political opposition knows. Make the colony ungovernable, pull in the conquerors troops, strangle them, and eventually they will give the colony up to you ..... Vietnam, Afghanistan, Middle East, etc, etc, etc. US companies have TWICE been evicted from Venezuela already; it would seem the US is now trying for a 3rd? We live in interesting times. SD

Temporarily sold the remaining 50% of our BTC-ETF today at around 94K, to capitalise on the day's sell off of Canadian o/g small caps and mid caps. All goes well, the pair trade doesn't take as long to deliver this time around Good luck. SD

Venezuela is going to be a US colony for quite some time, probably the same for Iraq which also needs a rebuild of its oil infrastructure. Of course, the reality is that everybody with a colony eventually looses it (peacefully or otherwise), but it typically takes awhile. Big part of this is forcing China to pay full price for Western crude, not cut them off entirely; no more discounted sanctioned crude - Venezuela today, Iran/Iraq tomorrow. Russian oil/gas primarily flowing east to China, versus north and west to Europe, hence the strategic interest in Greenland. Have to think that Columbia is also high on the list of future US colonies; if only to cut down on both the immigration and drug flows north. Interdiction at source versus the Mexico/US border, North America as a fortress; entirely rational for a change. SD

Trump is a hell of a change agent, and it hasn't necessarily been a bad thing, but one has to think that it just doesn't end well for him. With Trumps age and health, it would seem that he either has a 1) Biden style seniors moment that can't be airbrushed away, 2) attempts to force a constitutional change, that results in a 3rd presidency, or 3) exits as a martyr that echo's down history. American Caesar is about the best that he can aim for; the only questions are the how and when. Whether the change is good or bad, is just an opinion. However, to your point, extreme volatility is likely to be the norm for a time, and it is to the investor to capitalise on the hopefully only twice in a century opportunity [ie: the WW1, WW2 of the 1900's]. Gains have to be stored somewhere; that global interest in gold and BTC ..... is for a reason. Have to think that sometime in the next few months, is a Putin snatch of Zelenski in an attempt to end the Ukrainian war. According to the Donroe Doctrine, Trump wouldn't intervene. Shitty way to turn a profit, but it is what it is. SD

Not our wheelhouse, but I would expect outcome will depend heavily upon whether TMX/rail is used to divert product from PADD 3. Higher throughput requiring more diluent, raising the demand for condensate, etc. Offset against rising LNG exports going through Kitimat, and a higher supply of associated condensate from wet wells. SD

Nah!, we love Orange Boy ... all that volatility that he creates . SD

Oil Markets Brace for Supply Squeeze After U.S. Captures Nicolás Maduro https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Supply-Squeeze-After-US-Captures-Nicols-Maduro.html SD

He's a frail old man, 80 yrs old, in failing health; and worth more as a 'martyr to a grateful nation' than as a lame duck president over the rest of his term. To date, 4 sitting US presidents have been assassinated, not counting the many near misses. Politics is a blood sport; even Caesar was assassinated by his own senators, to thunderous applause. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_assassination_attempts_and_plots We have rule of law for a reason, and nobody is above it ... not even a Trump or Putin. I just recognise that whatever resolution is applied to any one of them, could also be applied to the other, and that we're all better off if the world collectively rules out assassination as an unacceptable statecraft practice. SD

The war in the Ukraine would stop tomorrow, were either Putin or Zelenski extradited/assassinated by special forces tomorrow. A lot quicker, more effective, and cheaper ... if the world is willing to tolerate it. Similarly, were Trump to experience something similar ... the current unrest in the Middle East and South America, would immediately die down. Assassination has long been a tool of 'statecraft' through the ages, and is no longer used for very good reason. We're all a lot safer when there are multiple competitors, versus just one 'almighty'. SD

Time horizon matters here. Over the near term most would expect higher crude prices, after the heavy oil from seized VZ tankers has been dumped onto the market. While the threat of a dump will be held over Canadian suppliers, resolution would most likely be a temporary diversion of Canadian supply into inventory, to force the dump. The US doesn't have the heavy oil inventory, and once that seized VZ heavy has gone ... good for Canada over the near term. Today, the mystery is how the rest of the world treats this head of state extradition, that is an act of war. Can Putin now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination on the Ukrainian Zelensky? Can Xi Jingping now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination on the Taiwanese Lai Ching-te? Can Netayahu now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination on the Iranian Khamenei? Can the world now execute a similar head of state extradition/assassination of Putin or Trump? Any one of these, will raise volatility in a big way. Most would now expect a coup, and opposition sabotage of export facilities that makes VZ impossible to govern. The reality is that it will take years vs months to sustainably raise heavy oil exports, and given the ongoing uncertainty ... whatever is sold will go at a discount to spot. Again, good for Canada over the near term. If you already have o/g, good for you , but if WTI goes much above USD 61-62 .... it might be wise to sell down and buy back later. If you're looking to get into o/g, come back later once answers are apparent. Long term nothing really changes other than the safe supply premium getting a little larger. SD

Agreed it's unlikely to be Saylor, but there are quite a few others accross the globe with higher cost bases and NAVs under 100%. As long as the BTC Treasury has a liquid market able to absorb the new paper issuance, everything is beautiful; but it assumes no contagion if/when the weaker treasuries have to sell some of their BTC. US trading takes its lead from Asia, where many of these weaker players are. Lends itself to contagion. Hopefully nothing happens, but if it does ... we're able to both use the opportunity, and take some $ out at the same time. Good luck. SD

Similar view, but more bearish on the downside; hedged via sale of 50% of our BTC-ETF holding at around 91.5K, that we hope to repurchase at around 81.5K. Lot of hopes riding on continuing US liquidity injections .... but until the other CB's step up as well, it's hard to see the next leg up. 85K implies that BRICs don't accelerate the dumping of US paper for gold, and that BTC Treasuries continue to hold versus sell BTC and buy back shares to capture the NAV discount. The natural buyers for forced sales of Venezuelan/Iranian gold holdings are the BRICs, which will further strain global liquidity ..... all it needs is one BTC Treasury sale that triggers a rush out the door SD

Preliminary return in the low 60% range. Big beneficiary of pair and swing trades, along with continuing gains in BTC, UBS, CJ, and IPO. Key to the performance was a material BTC-CJ trade, that eventually worked out as we had hoped. The TSX index return for 2025 was 27.37%; our buy and hold portfolio Beta is around 0.70x. We should have made a little over 19%, active management earned us an additional 40%+ If 2026 is the year of M&A in the Canadian oil patch, we could do very well. Good luck! SD

WEB was the outlier of his times, who managed to keep the gains compounding 'forever'; that one monkey in billions, that actually got it right All the power to him, but measure him against the metrics of his day ... not the metrics of today. The future is ever changing, as are the benchmarks that go with it, and many of the personal costs that were expected 'then' ... we wouldn't tolerate today. As with all outliers, his ideas were revolutionary at the time, and immediately dismissed. Nobody likes change, we know everything, who do you think you are presuming how to tell us how to do it better?, know your place! Social sanctions were much stronger back in the day. All around the world, yesterdays revolutionary is today's president .... if they can deliver results, and successfully adapt to changing times. Become too big to ignore, become the leadership that others follow, and let the upcoming generations do the adapting. The ideas remain revolutionary; but their application has changed quite a bit over the times. Today, most everybody has access to the same tools, and it is now much more about both application and context. Computerisation, internet, social media, viral spread, adoption curves, crowd manipulation, etc. Everybody eventually croaks; no exceptions. SD