Blugolds

There is a TON of illegal labor in this country. Most of which are jobs done that nobody I know would want to do. Ie. Roofing, drywall, landscaping, concrete etc. I know several guys that own their own business. They basically drive around and quote roofing jobs, meet the customer, make the sale, order the materials and schedule a dumpster delivery...he calls Hefe' to tell him the address of the job to show up on Monday, Hefe' shows up with his crew in a van and they strip. prep, reinstall the roof and clean up, they are INSANELY fast, Hefe's is paid in cash and the white American guy collects the check from the homeowner and the cycle repeats. His entire business is structured around cheap, fast, quality labor force. He has been doing this for over a decade, I dont know if the next 4 years will be any different, he has seen many administrations, but he's certainly concerned. He probably couldnt find white guys to do the work in general and show up reliably, and if they did they would want a wage that would probably be double or more than what he is paying now. Another example, when I was younger I worked on a farm in the small rural community near my hometown. The farmer I worked for had a 1970's dilapidated trailer house in the back of the farm that housed about 6 young Mexican guys, again one "farm hand manager" that spoke enough English to get by and the rest did ALL the chores around the farm, this was a facility that housed about 1000 heifers from newborns to 1yr old at which time he would sell them back to the farmer or send to auction. It was the farmer, me, the on staff veterinarian and the illegal workforce. I remember once there was an argument/fight between the Mexicans and I asked the farmer about it, he told me that one of the guys was from the south and one was from the north and those mexicans fight so they kicked him out, he was gone...I said, "oh no, what are you gonna do?" he said, "ah doesnt matter, Petey (his nickname for the head guy with broken english) will find another guy" sure enough Petey made a phone call and the next day there was a new guy there to take the place and get trained in, The farmer paid them peanuts and the kicker was, they also paid "rent" to live in the trailer! My guess is what they netted was for sure under minimum wage even, but they got to work, and a place to live, and Christmas presents of Carhart jackets and bibs to work in the cold. I was shocked, and its like that at all the farms in the area he told me. Again, all these guys have seen multiple administrations over decades, I dont know if this one will be truly different or it will be another "build a wall and make Mexico pay for it deal" but I know there are many guys that have made a lot of money on the backs of ultra cheap reliable labor that are a little nervous, they are staunch republicans and voted for Trump, want secure boarders, but also dont want to kill the golden goose, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. My experience from what I have seen is just like @rogermunibond described above. Another example, we have an Au Pair who's contract is up this summer after her 2nd year, she wants to stay obviously, but unless she gets married or starts going to school (which she cant afford obviously) she will have to go back home, she has been networking with other Au Pairs in the program and they have told her if she wants to stay she can get cash jobs, they have a whole network like Roger described, a lot of it sounds to be like waitressing jobs, kitchens, housekeeping type duties, some of which sounds like the restaurant manager isnt even paying them hourly, just straight tips...not a bad deal if you own a restaurant! They all speak perfect English, reliable and arent entitled, plus with no hourly wage, he has nothing to lose, they are at the mercy of the patrons generosity.

I’ve seen it suggested to create an alternative email that is just for your investment accounts, dont put it on anything else. I dont know if that will help or not but it cant hurt. I’m also generally careful about logging in on unknown networks, although it can be tricky if you want to make a trade outside of home or office. I try to lock down everything that I can as much as I can, I had some card fraud a year or so ago, enough for them to offer me credit tracking/reporting for free, and frozen at the big three, so all my accounts are max protected that they can be that way, I dont care if they want multiple things and it takes me an extra second to log in, all credit reports are locked down so nothing can be opened, outside of limited unknown network usage and trusting the brokerage safeties in place, I dont know what else is possible to make it more secure, I’m looking forward to hearing what others have to offer

American

A little different though, rather than a proxy war, Germany IS a member of NATO. I think Putin went into Ukraine because he knew he could without much issue, sure US gives Ukraine some token help but no real game changer help, not stopping Russia, just making it slightly more inconvenient. That would be totally different if Putin attempted the same with a NATO country. US has an embassy in Ukraine but no bases, the US has several bases in Germany and before the Germans had anything to worry about Putin would have had to already have made a significant push West through countries with increased US presence and NATO countries, including Poland. https://www.army.mil/article/265027/army_establishes_permanent_garrison_in_poland Putin doesnt get further than Ukraine. Trump is all talk about bombing Moscow, that is ridiculous and no way he told Putin that. Its a talking point to portray strength to voters, Putin knows he wouldnt do it because it would be the start of WWIII and to even suggest it is irresponsible IMO, just like if Putin threatened to bomb Washington, to even mention it is irresponsible IMO. Just like Putins threats to use "tactical Nukes". The truth is, people may not really like Putins invasion of Ukraine but he is more willing to sacrifice troops to do it than anybody else is to stop him, so he gets a pass, the US gives some token defense tools but nothing that makes a significant difference in the battle because its not worth escalation. The juice isnt worth the squeeze, unfortunate for Ukrainians, but thats just the way it is. Now with expendable North Korean mercenaries, Ukraine has already lost as Russia has addressed the attrition issue with its own citizens by now securing fodder that nobody will miss or have issue with, very low risk for Russia and it cost Ukraine everything, those arent good odds and its only a matter of time.

@Castanza your above post was good, when you're dealing with small sums that "hurt" if you lose it changes the emotion. I also have never understood (or maybe I understood early) that there really are only a couple variables that you completely control when investing. How much you sock away How long your timeline is to let it "work" If you are saving enough, even what many would consider mediocre returns add up and will provide satisfactory results, and if you give even modest sums long enough to compound (aka start as early as possible) it should provide satisfactory results. Probably the most common lack of focus is people getting the pot large enough to make a difference, they dont save enough or have enough disposable income to get a fat kitty. Instead they put that money toward to oversized home or fancy vehicle, so that when they do "invest", in order to have any meaningful results they would have to have returns that would put them in the .0001% of all investors in history, and thus the appeal of WSB brag posts. They start late in life and have a small pot, trying to work miracles, they want the winning lotto ticket. Again to your point, 401k allocation, nobody wants to play with compound interest calculators, have no idea what the rule of 72 is, no idea what an expense ratio is etc etc. Very very basic stuff but its not sexy like turning $1k into $100k in 6mo taking a flier on a "hot tip" that they saw/heard someplace and got in before the rest of the crowd. Also doesnt help that there is now, more than ever before, a plethora of exposure via social media showing them the mansions, exotic cars that resulted in buying a course, attending a seminar, paying a coach to get rich quick. Its like Ozempic for investing lol, nobody wants to put in the work when there is an easy way for them to get what they want without changing their behavior.

I def would NOT want a dividend, primarily for tax purposes, and I feel like Warren understands that as do most BRK shareholders, its been voted on several times and it resulted in a pretty resounding NO THANKS. Return of capital would be more beneficial to shareholders while avoiding the tax man, personally it would present additional challenges of finding a new place to deploy, but I'd be fine with it, better I figure out what to do with the $$ rather than Uncle Sam.

I miss those times when everything is so cheap and looks sexy you have to really focus on what you think has the most room. Like going to the dessert buffet and you want to try everything. Maybe that is me being lazy, as I think there is always opportunity, you just have to do a little more work to find it when valuations are high/optimistic, but when there is blood in the streets, I agree, its much more clear/easier. Inevitably it will happen again.

How in the world you can get to 100MM + and not simply take a small chunk and park it in something stable as insurance (say even "just $10 Mil") blows my mind. You only have to get rich once. especially since he started with a pot under $100k, so he was never loaded starting out, you would think that he would have realized he was in the big leagues and secured his future, hell he could have secured future generations, then continued with his "put it all on black" strategy LOL. But this really isnt anything new, the rags to riches to rags story has been told 1k times by professional athletes, musicians, actors. lottery winners etc. The particularly egregious point is the lack of personal accountability. I think there is also something to be said about someone hustling, grinding a slow steady climb from the bottom to the top, that "slower" rise conditions and tempers the individual to value the milestones along the way, and the memory of the "before" times is always there. It tempers the individual to risk. Although the sums may differ among the above mentioned examples, its all life changing money, and it comes relatively quickly with arguably little effort and that seems like it contributes to a lack of awareness. To the "fool and his money soon parted" I'll add another by the late Kenny Rogers, " You gotta know when to hold em, and know when to fold em".

Never quite understood tremendous aversion to large position sizes, I know all the cliche mottos, concentrate to get rich, diversify to stay rich etc. What are the alternative options for the funds. Looking back at my investing track record over the decades, I've "lost" way more money exiting or trimming positions than I ever have from making a totally wrong call and staying in too long. I also think it depends on the individual position. For me personally, if an "appropriately" sized position grows to "outsized" and it is one of my SWAN stocks it doesn't phase me one bit, and they have. Probably a lot of people would look at my port and the 3 largest positions of BRK, COST and FRFHF and think Im at best, reckless, and at worst, crazy...but it doesnt phase me a bit. I guess it all depends on individual risk tolerance and how you define that. Swings, even if large, have never really bothered me if I have conviction in the name, BRK recent ATH to where we are today was a huge swing in my port, didnt phase me because I felt like those numbers were overvalued anyway and while it has retreated in the short term, over the long term I'm confident that it will continue to provide satisfactory returns on the initial investment. I said it in a previous post in a different thread, with high conviction I actually get more excited and active with BRK the lower the price goes, BRK at 1.6 P/B (if that is the ballpark metric used, becoming less relevant) might make you feel good when you glance at the port, but I never consider it a "real" current number, manic Mr Market is having an "episode", just like him shouting BRK at 1.0. If he's around 1.36 then he is probably back on his meds and sounding relatively reasonable. Back to FRFHF, position has grown significantly, I still dont think its done, and if it goes parabolic, as long as nothing comes up that I would consider a significant red flag, even if it becomes what I would consider richly valued I dont sell, I dont really care what the score of the game in the 1st qtr is, you just have to win the 4th qtr. I made an excel spreadsheet with all port positions, position size, CB etc as well as what I consider current fair value for those names with regard to expected return on initial investment, if those names are on track and look to continue (everything in the business looks good) then I'm good. Sometimes my personal present port value in Excel can vary wildly from Fidelity. I pay much closer attention to Excel than Fidelity as the spreadsheet is my own, and Fidelity is the manic market. For example my personal excel sheet never reflected BRK at $480/sh but Fidelity did, inversely my current excel sheet shows FRFHF value higher than what Fidelity is currently telling me. I dont know if that answers your question, but thats the way I think about position sizing, there really isnt ever a time for me that something gets a "bit scary". The numbers in excel vs Fidelity can vary significantly but as long as Im satisfied with the numbers in Excel and remain on track, I dont really care what Fidelity tells me or how large a position has grown, especially if I'm not seeing something better that is an obvious slam dunk and that doesnt happen often. The last time I abandoned Excel was probably Spring of 2020 for BRK, and Spring of 2022 for FRFHF, positions in other names, while still on track in excel didnt look as exciting as BRK,FRFHF so that money was moved into BRK, FRFHF.

Good tips for travel with kids already, we have traveled multiple times with our twin boys 16mo, basics already covered above, plenty of diapers, wipes, snacks, pacifiers in diaper bag for easy access. Your kids are older so it may not all apply, might be "easier" for you as they are communicating. As for travel in airport etc. We had small strollers that folded, one for each kid. What we found to be a lifesaver were backpacks! Walking around airport we put the boys in backpacks, we both wore a kid. Small strollers we used as luggage carriers and it frees up both hands and you dont have to keep tabs on the kids. When we got to the gate, we had large bags (like hockey bags) that packed into the backpacks lower compartment, at the gate, the backpack and stroller folded up and went into the gate check bag, drop them at the entrance of the plane and the plane throws them in the belly, when you get off the plane they are there waiting for you, grab them and as soon as we got back to the boarding area we unpacked them, kids back in backpacks, strollers out for carrying stuff etc. The only way I could figure out movement with kids as well as rolling luggage etc without a monster cart. It worked really well. Only other challenge was the actual flights, and as stated above, plenty of distractions worked for us. A variety of snacks, we went to the dollar store and bought about $20 worth of cheap trinkets and sticker books that they had never seen before and would give them one when they started getting fussy, then when they got bored, we would switch them out. Helped a lot. Empty water bottles for the kids and fill them at the airport or when walking around at destination. 4yr old might be a little big for a backpack, but 2yr old would work, technically I think they do work for 4yr old depending on size. They have been a lifesaver because the kids are super chill in them, it frees you up to do whatever you need to do without keeping tabs on them and gives you both hands etc. We usually buy diapers/wipes etc at destination, dont know availability in the area that you will be traveling but what we found was that when traveling you either pay to pack everything and check what you need or pay to buy new when you get there and use what you need and leave the rest, we found it easier to pack and travel with less, buy what we need when we get there and leave what we dont use, didnt waste much and made everything significantly easier. Just something to consider. Also the tip on one person responsible for passports was good. The wife loses literally everything constantly so Im that guy. When I travel internationally I have an inside pocket or money belt type thing that holds a credit card and passports, its always on me close so that if a bag is stolen or lost or any other possible issue, we still have money and a way to get home without hassle, the rest I really dont care about and would be a minor inconvenience, but not having $ or passports turns a minor inconvenience into a nightmare.

Agreed, Horizon was bad, and Im a diehard western fan, and thats why I’ll also watch the other 3, even if they suck because we hardly ever get westerns anymore as a genre, hopefully that will change with the popularity of Yellowstone and the spin offs, we’ve talked about this before, how there is Fast and Furious 15 or whatever and Hollywood makes a western once every decade or something. Anyway Im trying to give them the benefit of the doubt, 1st episode is slow, hopefully it will pick up through the series, I felt like the characters were generic, actors mediocre at best, Costner was good in his role but the story was kinda lame too, felt like a low budget film with 1 big name star and elementary script.

Honestly as someone with the majority of my NW in BRK it does nothing for me really, if anything its kind of a bummer as selfishly I would be much happier if BRK was to get trounced while the cash pool in Omaha is so deep and Buffett let the buyback cannon fire for effect! I do expect an eventual retrace but it's fun to watch. A headline that said, "Buffett record buybacks last quarter" would make me much happier than BRK $1T.

I think it can be both. My examples are definitely "store where there is no competition" but to your point, I also have seen several instances in various locations where there is a Dollar General and a Dollar Tree nearly within the same parking lot and I remember several times thinking what is this? Like some kind of bargain/discount strip mall area? Didn't see the competitive advantage there at all. As to what percentage of their locations across the country are locationally advantaged vs just in the mix with the rest of the options, I have no clue my comments are purely anecdotal and haven't done a deep dive, I wouldn't consider myself a shopper at either of them and the couple times I have stopped in I don't see anything that would make a customer pick one deep discount retailer of chintzy products over the other, literally the only differentiating factor that I can see is location to the customer but if they are within a 200 yards of each other then that kind of goes out the window.

I suppose nothing, but in all honesty these towns are very, very small, we're talking maybe a local cafe or two, a gas station (maybe 1 chain station and 1 off brand) , maybe a subway a church or two and of course several bars. I dont think the community could support Aldi enough to build out there even if pulling residents from rural areas in a 30 min radius, its all farms and trailer homes on land. I dont know if it would be worthwhile to build out a new location for Aldi when there are certainly better options with higher traffic in other areas of the state/country. I was thinking about it more thoroughly, in my 2 hour drive, the first hour is major interstate larger towns/cities and they have DG that faces more competition via all the big retail names TGT, WMT etc... the last hour is rural hwy, I pass through 4 of these small rural towns, 3 of them have DG locations. 2 of the towns are as I described above and in the previous post 30-60 min from any other option or what I would consider a competitor. the final town closest to the cabin is nearly 100% tourism supported, large lake/flowage, resorts, bars, marinas and again no other options, the nearest option is 20 min away in a slightly larger (but still small town) that has a Walmart and an ACE hardware, Walmart has been there for probably 15-20yrs now and the ACE has been there for at least 30. I dont consider the ACE competition because the offerings are totally different, but WMT would be with grocery options and other cheap goods. Another interesting observation, we are big Aldi shoppers for things we dont get at COST, but occasionally I risk life and limb to enter WMT in our major metro area, generally for the same items eow or so. I have noticed when we do extended stays at the cabin WMT is the option we choose generally once we get there for the same staples and the prices on several items are actually HIGHER in the rural area than they are back home. So the people are really stuck, no options to speak of and the options that they do have charge 20%+ more on several basics (and that is just what I noticed) that I can buy them for back home. This county like I said supported nearly entirely via tourism is one of the poorest in the state according to analysis, so they really feel that expense and the majority (again according to analysis by provided by the county/state) are uneducated and below the poverty line). Its easy to see how a cheap retailer like DG can come in, give them a cheaper, closer, convenient option and take some of that community market share from WMT. Also in these Midwest rural areas in winter a 30 min drive vs "down the street" can be a big deal in bad weather for folks driving clapped out hoopties.

I live in a major metro area and there are DG around, but I have a cabin several hours away that I frequent regularly, that drive takes me through several rural small towns with no major retailers, but they have DG and they always have a full parking lot, its really the residents only option that doesnt require driving 30-60 min to a more populated area with major retail, I think that it their niche. Not investment recommendation just an observation. Also the nature of the store and its target customer would lend itself to comments I suspect. At least when I have gone in to grab something its usually a customer base attracted to ultra cheap products, generally out of socioeconomic necessity.

Same....BRK, CSU, COST, FRFHF all positions that I am comfortable holding if the market closed for the next 5-10 yrs. Percentage of port reflects that as well. As stated by other posters above, tax consequences have to be considered. I do take smaller positions in "2nd tier names" that I monitor more frequently but again, percentage of port reflects that. Some of my smaller positions that I have held have also turned into much larger percentages and in hindsight I should have swung harder! These may not yield that absolute best returns possible or trounce the market but I sleep very well at night. In the event of market turbulence I view it as opportunity to add to the core concentrations and pick up other stuff on the watch list. IM not great at really knowing in great detail dozens of businesses so for me, the core concentrations are just easier to manage/understand etc. My circle of competence is probably lower than many others here, but the concentrated long term holds I know very well.

Haha, Same here, she is all in BRK with over 100% gains, she has girlfriends who’s husbands are excited about BTC and talk about it constantly, guys tell wives it’s not if they will be rich, its when, BTC literally has “unlimited potential”. Wife asks me if we own BTC, I say “Nope”, she says maybe thats something we should put some in to. My wife knows nothing about investing, nothing about finance, she’s tagged along to Omaha a few times, but outside that she doesn’t concern herself with it, I obviously handle the accounts and have since we have been together. So, no props for BRK from the Real Housewives, its boring, but if some day those gals are sitting on their multi-million dollar yacht and we’re the “broke” friends, basically a complete 180 occurs in the financial landscape of the friend group, Im never gonna live it down lol.

Adding to FRFHF today and the last few days, $1050 looks good to me, hopefully it does to them as well.

I cant get into my Fidelity account Seems to be resolved

I've seen speculation that BRK may have sold directly to Apple. Avoids open market and ensures a good price for both parties that they may not have been able to get in the open.

Return of capital would an option, although I would rather they have solid alternative options. I dont think a Div is on the table currently. BRK shareholders (myself included) have been pretty clear about how they feel about div when voting on proposals. I dont think BRK would sell Apple and pay a tremendous amount of tax on that money, just to pay it out to shareholders who then also pay tax on it. Just doesnt seem logical. My guess is Apple position getting big, valuation is full. I think its funny when people comment on BRK Apple position as being too big, too dependent on one single holding, too much risk...then they reduce the position and then people complain, "well what the hell is he gonna do with all that cash?! what is the better alternative!? why is he keeping KO and selling Apple?!" This IS a tremendous amount a cash, and certainly seems like such behavior would indicate some kind of reasoning for such.

I guess my thinking is that this IS what he is doing, we see it at shareholder meetings now featuring Warren and Greg at the front table. Without coming out and saying it, my guess is that Greg is basically doing the job already, like a kid riding a bike, mom/dad are holding on to the back of the bike seat and running along the bike, the kid knows/thinks they are there and gives them confidence and then without the kid specifically watching the parents hand pull away from the seat, and still running along side the bike they are riding the bike on their own without the assistance before they even realize it. My guess is that already, or soon, Warrens hand is off the back of the seat, or only occasionally hanging on to the seat while running along side Greg. If it was ANY other CEO I think the transition probably already happens and louder, but given its WB, and BRK and those two are so connected, it makes it a bigger deal for perception. I personally dont worry about it. Warren is probably one of the most intelligent and thoughtful partners an investor could ask for, and this creation he has made through his life work is his baby, and he certainly has considered all angles for his succession, he had the ability to pick probably anybody in the world to replace him and Greg was his choice, I'm sure he has considered Gregs strengths and weaknesses and will accommodate anything that he felt might pose a challenge. Im sure they have discussed theories and strategies there. I think that they both realize that Greg isnt going to be doing 20% a year but Im also sure that they have discussed options to ensure "adequate" returns for remaining shareholders going forward and what those potential levers are as options for Greg. To continue your Mozart analogy, I fully expect Warrens succession plan to be his Crescendo ending. This is all speculation, but this is the way I think about it, and it gives me faith because if I, as a simpleton think this way and this would be my goal and the way I would attempt to do things myself if I was in Warrens position, certainly he must think beyond me as he and Charlie are the ones who created the masterpiece and are certainly levels above my own ability.

Another thing to consider, and I think I remember hearing it at a shareholder meeting maybe, I cant remember exactly. A hypothetical, but also probability I would say better than zero...is that with the pandemic scare, maybe the phones WERE ringing in Omaha, and they were discussing particulars working on a deal perhaps, explains the hesitation to deploy capital elsewhere, and then due to the swift rescue by the feds, the deal never transpired and to outsiders it looked like they were sitting there sucking their thumb.

I would have liked to see him be more aggressive in 2020, Covid lows as well, hindsight is easy here, but then I remember that BRK #1 priority is to protect the base, preserve the fortress/shareholders/partners. Its easy to forget that Ackman was on CNBC...CRYING, there were medical ships in the NYC harborm National Guard tent citys, the roads were closed, I am in the O&G industry and for the first time in my career the airports were NOT buying Jet fuel shipments it was crazy, there were a TON of unknowns. At the time we didnt know that it would kind of turn out to be a nothing burger, its easy to forget that the potential was there to be really really bad, like a once in a lifetime or couple lifetimes event and had the gov not been so aggressive with stimmy checks etc, the results could have been totally different and it becomes more reasonable to see why WB errored on the side of caution, it really wasnt an error, it was sticking to the primary goal of protection given the potential risks at the time and the unknowns. Hindsight, yeah, should have been headed outside with buckets to catch the raining gold rather than a thimble, but again, thats with hindsight and what we know now. It could have ended up much worse than the GFC. I was looking at purchase history for BRK and I was glad that I personally was buying hand over fist during that time, so I was personally able to take advantage of the opportunity even if BRK wasnt, but I can at least reason on why they behaved the way they did.