Dinar

They missed earnings and guided down. Here is how think about it: at $180 per share, you are paying 12x forward EPS for a business that grows volumes at 3% per annum. So it is pricing in negative volume growth, while the business is showing growing volumes.

STZ - constellation brands after a 10% move down

Carter was horrible, however he did one thing right - deregulated railroads and airline industry,

This is going to sound horrible, but I think the California fire situation is about to drive premiums, including reinsurance up quite a bit. The property loss must be immense, and even if insurance losses are not that big, it might still enforce underwriting discipline.

No, it is selling at something like 10x 2028 EPS forecasts and 14.7x 2025 EPS forecasts.

The real travesty are: a) lousy schools - 20% of kids in Chicago I think read at grade level. Schools are being dumbed down. I have seen it in the last 2 years at my son's blue ribbon public elementary on UWS in NYC. b) horrible curricula - no personal finance classes for instance. c) no vocational schools d) immigration depressing wages and increasing rents e) welfare that is so generous that it makes no sense for 20-30% of the country to work, and many who do work would be better off on the dole f) incentivizing the people on the dole to have kids g) prisons that don't rehabilitate and that don't teach useful skills so that released inmates can earn an honest living h) Common sense needs to be taught. You can do very well in life not knowing vector calculus, but hard to do well in life without common sense.

Why do you think they have been able to acquire the Guyana property so cheaply compared to their estimate of NAV? Thank you,

Just because you do not know, does not mean these people do not exist. I know people who moved to the US from Turkey with Jewish and Greek roots in the 1970s. You clearly do not know relevant statistics or they do not align with your worldview. The issue is not poverty, it is culture and values. There are plenty of people who moved from China/Korea/India from very poor regions in the 1980s and 1990s and their kids today graduate from Yale/Harvard and run companies. I went to school with Chinese kids in 1990s in NYC whose parents were illiterate, and yet these kids became doctors and lawyers. Today children of Asian immigrants out earn Whites in the US. The issue is that you do not care to provide any proof for your assertions. The other issue is that Asian culture (Indian, Chinese, Korean) values education and Turkish culture does not. There was a Persian civilization but not a Turkic one. Hell, Uzbekistan has statues of Tamerlane, a brutal degenerate who built a tower of 50K heads. Modern Turks came from Central Asia. Education was not ever valued by the Turks. Different cultures have different values. You will be treated much better as a guest by Turks or Arabs than by Germans. Hospitality is a cultural tradition in the Middle East, education and hard work are not.

Can you provide comparison between people with Turkish roots (excluding Jews and Greeks who immigrated from Turkey) and ethnic German population in the following areas: a) Crime b) Educational levels c) Income d) % of welfare and other social support by age levels e) Terrorist acts. Thank you. I have been to Germany a number of times, and I have friends who live there.

Syrians are not refugees, they are economic migrants. Had they been fleeing persecution, they would have applied for asylum in Turkey or any of the other countries they had to cross to get to Germany. They are also mostly young men of fighting age. Invaders yes, asylum seekers - no.

I am neither a tax accountant nor a tax lawyer, but in the US you are asking for trouble with this strategy. It is not a grey area according my accountant - it is a wash sale.

Shares issued and outstanding = Shares issued - shares held in treasury. Yes, you should only use shares issued and outstanding. There could be various reasons for holding treasury stock, including for stock option exercises or restricted stock units. Many European companies only cancel shares once or twice a year.

GMBXF is very interesting. What do you think of controlling shareholders? Are you valuing it on a sum of the parts basis? How are you looking at valuation? Thank you.

That's only true in the world of zero or very low inflation. Which securities do you think are cheap? Thank you.

Actually, you are making very important assumptions. If you are sitting in cash, you are assuming that there will be essentially no inflation while you sit on cash. You are assuming that there will be massive sell-offs in individual securities or stock market as a whole, and relatively soon. When I have apartment buildings in Boston area at one-third of replacement cost, a 10% cap rate, 13% cash yield to the equity, with LTV of around 30%, under what scenario other than a Great Depression or deflation or meteorite hitting Boston and wiping out the area, will your cash holding do better over the this position? We will have to agree to disagree. I can make similar arguments for the other names on the list. We will revisit in 10 years.

And you disagree why? a) NEN is selling at a 10% cap rate, and something like a 13% free cash flow yield to the equity. Add rent growth, of even 3-4% per annum, and your return is 16-20% per annum depending on expense growth (I'd assume expense growth of 3% per annum) and the benefit of leverage. b) Heidelberg Materials is selling at 9.5x 2025 EPS, 8.5x 2026 EPS, and 7.75x 2027 EPS. What do you think the returns here will be? CRH has had numerous insider buys over the past 2 years, including a USD 2MM by director at 99 in December and another $150K by another director at 98+ at the end of December. c) MSGE has a 7% free cash flow yield to the equity, with plenty of levers to increase profitability. For instance in Q1 revenue from Rockettes was up 15%, half was price and half was volume. If the company gets to 2019 levels in terms of revenues from Rockettes on an inflation adjusted basis, that takes free cash flow yield to 7.5%. If you have pricing at inflation + 1% for this collection of businesses, then you have free cash flow growing at inflation + 3-5% per annum. 7%+3% (inflation) + 4% (growth due to price ahead of inflation) = 14% per annum. This does not take into account the benefit of dynamic pricing, ability to increase profitability at the Garden via additional luxury boxes, etc... Nor do you pay anything for the company's ability to create value via share buy-back. d) Canadian Pacific Railway. Did you read the presentation and the 75 page transcript from 2023 investor day? Have you taken a look at their operating performance and the tendency to under-promise and over-deliver? What do you think CP results will look like in 2030? Thank you.

a) New England Realty (NEN) - for US investors ONLY due to tax headaches for foreigners b) Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) c) Canadian Pacific Railroad d) Heidelberg Materials, CRH & Arcosa (sand/gravel/cement/aggregates basket)

With all due respect, are you guys actually looking for idea or excuses? There are incredible number of excellent opportunities to deploy capital where it is hard to imagine not making four or more times your money over the next decade.

This is a very good point. However, there was an article a while ago, which stated that many countries in Europe are beginning to require climate insurance. So while the supply of insurance may increase, the demand increase might be much bigger.

Is it a PFIC?

@Spekulatius, I disagree regarding impact of sanctions. The reason that Venezuela and North Korea are economic basket cases is socialism, not sanctions. USSR economy did not implode due to sanctions. Iran in my opinion, despite an incredibly rich culture, great civilization and sophistication is hurt by: a) No rule of law b) No freedom of speech or press c) Crony capitalism d) Religious fundamentalism. By the way, what makes me concerned about Israel's economic progress is the rising proportion of orthodox Jews in society. They don't contribute and you can argue are anti-enlightenment.

I would prefer that Fairfax stick to short-term Treasuries, say 1 year. Instead take the risk when: a) Corporate spreads blow out and you can make 10-15% per annum for several years in "bullet-proof" credits b) Own more equities. This is where they can generate a lot of profit. Buffett make Berkshire insane amount of money by owning common stocks, not buying treasuries at 4%.

Has anyone spent a few weeks in the summer in Malaga? How are the beaches and swimming? Is it a good idea to take three little kids for several (three to eight) weeks there or is more of an adult destination? Thank you.

Yes, I know GMXT but I cannot find English financials and I also don't know the controlling shareholders.

Look at Iraq or Libya. Is the west better off now that we no longer have Khadaffi and Saddam?