Dinar

You are 100% correct, but I would add also that incentives matter. When you get free groceries + food stamps, Medicaid, subsidized/free housing, welfare, et all, what is the point of working for most low income workers? You tax those who work more and more so more and more people can sit on welfare.

I agree with everything that you say, but I think that if you include state & local government spending, the figure is more than 40% of GDP.

Would work great for something like the Rockettes - 100+ shows with different demand for each.

Keyzer soze says hello

I think BIAL will be IPOed this year, may be via Anchorage, but it should generate several billion dollars of book value increase or at least show how undervalued it is on the company's books.

EQC

Why? Thank you.

Actually this is blatantly false. Any illegal immigrant in any state has the right to send his kids to public school and go to the hospital even if he has no ability to pay. This is mandated by federal law.

CASY

You can easily have a zero budget deficit in this country and real GDP 20-40% higher with reforms. The trouble is how are we going to get reforms? 1) School vouchers could probably cut the cost of public education in half, and 75% in NYC while improving quality. 2) Ending government guarantee of student loans which cost tens if not hundreds of billions per annum, and also are a drastic misallocation of resources. 3) Gut welfare/food stamps/section 8/public housing/medicaid, etc that cost federal government hundreds of billions per annum and destroy any incentive to work. This will also send millions of people into the labor force to do something productive. 4) Reform FEMA and similar agencies. There is no reason why people should get hundreds of thousands of dollars to live in paradise. 5) End foreign aid - why are we spending $100bn+ per annum on foreign aid? 6) Reform HB-1 visa programs - this program should exist only for truly outstanding people, so charge companies $50K per annum per employee. That way really valuable people will still get in, while people who are just cheaper than Americans and depress wages cannot come in. 7) Reform tax code - my proposal: a) No deductions, period b) First 50K of income is not taxable for individuals, first $100K not taxable for individuals with kids, first $100K not taxable for married filing jointly, first 200K not taxable for married filing jointly c) 30% federal tax rate on earned income d) 20% LTCG & dividends e) End non-taxability of muni bonds

If they had been intellectually honest, they would have addressed BIAL.

Fairfax this morning at the open

Prepare for fireworks today, Muddy Waters with a short report on Fairfax

Don't forget there is a lot of debt, if I remember correctly, L 40bn, now you do have a stake in ITC that is worth around L 15bn, but if you look at it on EV/EBIT basis, the multiple is not cheap 6x EBIT or 8x post tax.

If I am not mistaken, the US business is 50% of EBIT, and I would guess that 90-95% is cigarettes.

I'd be careful here. 10% volume declines in the US business are serious business. I was hoping that it'd stop in 2023, but it has continued in 2024.

I agree. I would suggest vocational schools for many, so that they can learn trades and make hundreds of thousands a year, and very strict immigration restrictions.

So how many millions of cleaning ladies and construction workers can the country absorb? A million a year? Two, three?

Except that they are begging on the streets on NYC and getting free food handouts at neighborhood churches. They don't speak English, and don't have any marketable skills. The world has changed. One hundred years ago, there was plenty of work for unskilled people, today there is very little. As for how great Polish, Irish or German or English immigration was, why don't you ask American Indians whether they are glad that all these people came over here?

What is exactly the property tax that the illegal is paying and what is the cost of the kids attending public school? Who is paying for the health insurance for the family? Given that the cost of the educating a kid in public school is at least $15K per annum, and the cost of health insurance is at least several thousand per person per annum, is the family really paying $30K per annum in property tax? Yes, the family is a drain on the economy under any honest accounting, before taking into account the fact that the family depresses wages and increases cost of housing for the working class.

Talk to people in the Section 8 office in NY, go to doctors' offices in immigrant neighborhoods and see what medical insurance they use, go to immigrant neighborhoods and see how many pay with EBT (food stamps.) Try to hire a Russian speaking nanny in NYC on the books, and you will be surprised how difficult it is. A friend tried and out of three dozen offers he made, not a single one was accepted. They were all on the dole (Medicaid, food stamps, subsidized housing), or working officially as home attendants for forty hours a week already...

https://nypost.com/2024/02/05/metro/migrant-moped-crew-busted-after-stealing-cellphones-right-out-of-nyers-hands-sources/ No crime either from immigrants.

You clearly have not been to immigrant neighborhoods. When 70 year olds come over, and immediately get Medicaid, subsidized housing, food stamps, supplemental security income and home attendants, that's a drain on the economy. (And yes, I personally know a few examples.) Work for everyone? When unskilled wages are less than government benefits, why would people work? Fifteen years ago Economist magazine published a study that stated that a woman with two kids in NYC would need to make over $100K per annum before she was better of financially working than being on the dole in NYC. Today, the figure would be over $200K. How many single mothers with kids can make over $200K?

The problem is that for many low income Americans, it does not pay to hold down a job, since due to withdrawal of benefits + income tax, marginal tax rates could easily be 70-80%+. Think someone making $19K in NY and on Medicaid, then income goes to $30K and you lose Medicaid.

Actually, that is not true. It is if you import Phds in STEM and doctors & nurses. Not true if you import people without a high school education and no skills. Also, immigration drastically reduces wages for workers in the US and leads to social problems as people cannot find work or welfare pays more. Why hire an American comp sci major for $100K when an Indian or Russian or Chinese immigrant will do the job for $50K? Why hire an American high school drop out for $20 dollars an hour when an African immigrant will work harder for $5 or $10 per hour? Then watch the unskilled Americans go on welfare, and engage in alcoholism and drugs.