Dinar

You are right, I should have been more explicit. I am assuming that all FFO gets paid out as either dividends or share buy-backs, and there will be no more acquisitions. In reality, they have opportunities to invest some capital at 10%+ yield on development, and they will probably acquire property over time. Assuming acquisitions are not very big and value destroying my approximation should hold.

@thepupilSUI has been real good at selling shares.... I agree with you, I hate dilution, but love the assets. In retrospect, good share sales by the company: 9.2MM at $139.5 on 09/30/2020, 8.05MM at $140 on 03/04/2021, and 4.03MM at $185 on 11/15/2021. I just think on a same store basis, it can raise prices at 1% above inflation, so call it inflation + 1.5% EBITDA growth, so say inflation + 2-3% FFO growth per year, assuming no acquisition, so total return = 8-9% + inflation per annum.

No way this is early 2008 in the US. There like 5 bids for every home that comes on the market, half from cash only buyers. There was very strict mortgage underwriting in the US over the past decade.

@thepupil, why would you own ELME rather than SUI? Thank you.

Two quick comments: a) BTI is better than MO since it is both cheaper (adjusting MO for the stake in BUD and BTI for the stake in ITC) and has slower volume decline thanks to its non-US business b) BUD just had an investor day, and seems quite cheap to me, although I do not own it. Company is essentially promising both organic volume growth and margin expansion, neither of which is priced in as far as I can see.

Why? What do you think of Entain news today? (Somewhat different business, but still) Thank you.

Made up history? So Shushkevich and Bandera and their men did not kill hundreds of thousands of Poles and Jews? Their statues are not all over Ukraine?

German government does NOT glorify Nazis, you do not see statues of Nazis in Germany. Ukrainian government does. That's a key difference for me.

The Ukrainians that joined SS in World War II and murdered hundreds of thousands of Jews and Poles are considered national heroes. That's not some Ukrainian, they are national heroes. You worship genocidal maniacs? That's your right, but do not expect the rest of the world to help a country that believes genocide is a good thing.

Go read the thread and you will find it. I have never been a fan of Putin nor do I think that the Russian invasion was justified. You however seem incapable of admitting that Shushkevich and Bandera were mass murderers, and committed genocide. A nation that glorifies people who commit genocide, calls them national heroes and puts up their statues cannot expect sympathy from civilized people. Its people yes, its government no!

Funny, Zelensky was applauding a man who would burn alive his grandparents if he had the chance. In other news.... https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russias-army-learns-from-its-mistakes-in-ukraine-a6b2eb4?mod=hp_lead_pos1

Oh, I am not saying that Biden should have done nothing, I am saying that as an American citizen, I wish Biden was as concerned with our borders as he is with Ukrainian borders.

What is so great about Mary Barra or the clowns running Ford, or United Airlines, or most large US companies? L'Oreal has been crushing Estee Lauder while paying a fraction to top management, similarly Safran vs RTX, and the list goes on. What is so great about Sundar Pinchai at Google? Does Satya Nadella really deserve $200MM per annum or would he work less hard for $100MM per annum?

I find it interesting that Democrats and Biden, are willing to work so hard to defend Ukrainian borders, but not willing to lift a finger to defend American borders from millions of invaders.

What makes you say that? I am not assuming that.

I think what would be real competitive with equities is a 30 year zero coupon Treasury issued in 1981/1982, without checking, I'd bet it crushed S&P over its 30 year life. Also, TIPS issued/trading at 4% real in late 1990s.

In the first half of that period (09/20/1973-09/20/1998) S&P 500 returned 13.7% per annum. Given that 10 year started at under 7% in that time period and 30 Year when it appeared a couple of years later was under 9%, hard to see how a 10 or 30 year would have outperformed. So how would have a savvy bond investor returned more than 13.7% per annum from 09/20/1973 to 09/20/1998, unless it was in distressed debt, but non-investment grade debt was never mentioned?

You are correct, but the onus is on the person who made the claim to provide proof.

https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/ERP-2011/pdf/ERP-2011-table73.pdf As you can see, had you invested on 12/31/1972 and reinvested on 12/31/2002 (mind you 30 year did not exist till 77), you would not have even been close to double digits over the 50 year frame. Meanwhile, the opposite claim was made - that bonds outperformed stocks over the past 50 years, and when asked for proof, the answer was go f..ck yourself. That of course is the response of someone who is clearly assured of his facts, never makes mistakes and all around a gentleman and a scholar.... Mind you, the proper comparison is from September 20th 1973 to September 20th 2023 would be even more in favor of stocks.

RTX will probably be driven more by the engine issues.

You don't really care to provide proof because you cannot. Bonds did not return 10.31% per annum from 12/31/1972 to 12/31/2022 like stocks did, and you know it. So when you asserted that bonds have beaten stocks over the last 50 years, you were not accurate. If we use 09/20/1973 to 09/20/2023, the comparison is even worse for you. I was a convertible bond and a distressed debt investor for a for a decade, I am happy to buy the right bonds at the right price. But to assert that bonds do not have the drawdowns that stocks have and that bonds have beaten stocks over the past fifty years is not accurate.

@TwoCitiesCapitalYou claimed that bonds are much less riskier than stocks, and that bonds do not have the drawdowns that stocks have. I showed you that bonds can have monster drawdowns. You claim that bonds crushed stocks from 1973 to 2023. Care to provide proof? S&P 500 did 10.31% per annum from 12/31/1972 to 12/31/2022. How did the 30 year, 10 year, 5 year or 1 year do over that 50 year period?

It was very fast, as fast as regular broadband in the US

@John Hjorth, Ukraine is NOT part of NATO, so what is your point?

You are kidding, right? 30 year treasury issued in 2020-2021 is trading at less than 50 cents on the dollar.