Dinar

Israel did not attack an embassy, it attacked a building used by IRGC. Calling a military base a hospital does not make it so. Calling an IRGC base a consulate does not make it one. The war between Israel and Iran has been going on since 1982, if not earlier, when Iran started backing Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. In 1992, Iran and Hezbollah bombed Israel's embassy in Buenos Aires. So Iran is not the aggrieved party here. Hmm, so Gaza was under Egyptian control until 1967, so Israel was committing genocide in Gaza since 1948? Israel left Gaza in 2005, was it committing genocide in Gaza in 2005, 2006, etc...? You have not explained how Israel is committing genocide now. If Israel was committing genocide, it would close all the aid points into Gaza. By the way, where was Gaza getting most of its drinking water in 2022 from? Actually Israel, actions of a country committing genocide?

Exactly what genoicidal acts is Israel committing? How is Iran defending itself? Iran has publicly stated that the killed general was involved in planning the October 7th massacre in Israel. Iran has funded Hamas and Hezbollah for decades. Iran is not exactly Poland in 1939. You need to brush up on your definition of genocide. If Israel was committing genocide, there would be no population in Gaza, instead population of Gaza is up several fold in the last 50 years. Also, in typical urban warfare, the civilian to military loss is 10 to 1, in Gaza it is roughly 3:2, and that if we believe Hamas figures, which do not stand up to statistical analysis.

@Cigarbutt, I agree re higher profit margins due to less competition. I do NOT own EQR and am I NOT suggesting that you or anybody else buy it.

@Cigarbutt, I think that there may be three other issues at play. Companies have gotten better at price discrimination/yield management software, which allows them to squeeze more revenue at 100% margin at very low and perhaps zero volume loss (airlines, concert tickets are good examples.) Companies may be more aggressive at raising pricing - look at historical price increases for aggregates for instance, and look at the last couple of years and 2024. IT investment has also probably allowed massive cost reductions. Company like EQR are pretty explicit about it, and I am sure that banks/airlines, etc... have also cut out plenty of costs.

@Cod Liver Oil, he is not.

I personally think that Ukraine should do the following: a) Raise cash via asset sales, both companies and real estate. I would buy an apartment in the heart of Kiev tomorrow if the price was right and it was available for sale. b) Raise cash via selling bonds to foreigners. There is a large Ukrainian diaspora that would buy bonds to support Ukraine, and I would buy it as well (most relatives/ancestors from Ukraine). Best case scenario - I get repaid, worst case scenario - I helped Ukraine in its hour of need and would get a tax write-off if the bond is defaulted on. c) Use the raised cash to recruit mercenaries & buy arms, and then having credibility negotiate peace.

So I should have bought it a year ago, but I still think it is cheap, and I finally decided to do it given all the insider buying. The quick version is that you have a business selling at half of the valuation of MLM or VMC. It has tremendous tail winds and incredible pricing power. The company is selling for 15x 2025 EPS, which I think the company will easily exceed. VMC is forecasting double digit price increase in the aggregates business and the company will probably be able to do the same. All the construction and repair is great for aggregates and cement, which company also produces. At p/e of 15, nothing is priced in: no above inflation price increases, no volume growth, no accretive acquisitions.

CRH

@Cigarbutt, I would do the following: a) Look at the most profitable companies in say 1999 and what were their EBIT margins b) Look at the most profitable companies in say 2023 and what were their EBIT margins? the most profitable in 2023 were probably MSFT, Alphabet, Meta which are all essentially monopolies or close to it. Also, Tech spend as a % of GDP probably doubled if not tripled since 1999, and tech companies have insane margins when well run - CRM, Intuit, etc...

Margins may have permanently increased because the composition of the market has changed. Software companies such as MSFT & monopolies/oligopolies such as Meta, Google, and V/MA are a very % of market, and they have very fat margins.

@Viking, I respectfully disagree. The returns quoted for ShawKei do not seem to be that great giving liquidity and risk involved. 12% annual return given risks and leverage since 2010 is not great, 3.5% since 2017 is incredibly bad. BDT is also unclear. What has been the IRR on the capital committed vs alternatives (private equity, S&P, private credit, etc...). Any investment made in 2009 should have doubled the money in a three year period, maximum 4.

2% is real, so in nominal terms closer to 5%, no?

why are you assuming 2% earnings growth? @RedLion, I think having a PhD in economics is more of a hindrance than help, common sense seems to be uncommon in academia (I got to half a dozen PhD seminars every year...)

What do you think is a sustainable level of profits for Wajax and why? Thank you.

https://www.resumebuilder.com/1-in-8-retirees-plan-to-go-back-to-work-in-2024/

The country does NOT need unskilled labor. Immigration depresses wages and raises housing costs. We have plenty of unskilled people on welfare who can do these jobs. There are hundreds of millions of unskilled people in Africa, Latin America, Arab world, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Afghanistan. You want all of them here? There are millions of Haitians who ruined their country, what will happen to the US if they come here?

What world do you live in? In NYC, these "industrious" young people are busy standing in line for free food, get free housing and healthcare, crowd out hospital emergency rooms, their kids crowd out schools, and they are busy committing crimes. Most of these young people also don't have any skills. These are not Chinese/Russian PhDs in math/computer science/biology/chemistry or Ukrainian/Polish plumbers/electricians/carpenters.

You were smarter than I was. I think the sale of the assets in Texas + the deal with Amazon are a very big deal.

So, with the caveat that I should have bought at half the price, the thesis is: demand for power is going up, price for power is going up, this company will see growing profits, will buy back shares, and is at a huge discount to CEG and sells at a double digit free cash flow yield a year or two out.

There may be a tax nuance with the swap. If Fairfax takes delivery there might not be tax implications while if it cash settles it, then there will be a large taxable gain? This in turn will likely affect the decision making of the company of when to terminate the swap.

Bought Talen Energy - TLNE on Friday.

KSB in Germany.

From what my accountant told me before, FBAR does NOT apply to foreign stocks held in US brokerage accounts. My accountant is still working on the IRA requirements, once she is done, I will let you know (it is a large firm, she is checking with another department, and my guess is that everyone is trying to cover their behind...)

I would avoid Kering (too much fashion risk and also luxury names, excluding Hermes, have taken a lot of price in the past several years) and also ALX - their retail condo will probably go to the lender at 731 Lexington and not clear what will happen to the office building - Bloomberg lease expires in 2029. Now at 160, it was a no-brainer, here at $213, different story.

Aena, Philip Morris International, Tel-aviv stock exchange, Ambev, Transdigm, Monarch Cement. On the list, I do NOT own Aena and Ambev.