Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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Sold August 18th MANU puts with a $21 strike for $1.80.
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https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/
Interesting take from Damodaran on where equity risk premium is today vs history
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@Xerxes, while I love it, Rashomon and Dersu Uzala are better in my opinion.
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52 minutes ago, Cod Liver Oil said:
@Dinar ok, I get the mistakes of omission but did you make complementary mistakes in commission or did the stuff you own do nearly as well as well as the
great stuff you passed on?
Generally the things that I own did well (portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 comfortably), however the names that I did not buy outperformed the portfolio by probably 5% per annum over the past fifteen years or so.
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@LC, I same story with me on Meta and yes, trying to be cute with oil/gas last year rather than take a 10% position in JOE.
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@Gregmal, would you mind sharing your lessons from CTO? Thank you.
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Mistakes of omission - not buying great companies because wanted a 5% or 10% lower price or I don't have an edge theory.
A few examples: Sartorius Stedim Biotech in 2012, FSV in 2015, Google in 2009 (why, no idea - was a lot more fun looking at obscure microcaps half a world away), Monster beverages in summer of 2008, Deckers outdoors in December of 2008, and the list goes on and on...
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21 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
Yes, that’s completely true. But in the case that European countries don’t trust Putin - what is your alternative?
Do you roll the dice and let him take the Baltic States, etc?
Aren't the Baltic countries part of Nato? So then obviously the mutual defense treaty applies. I don't understand why American taxpayers ought to bail out incompetence and graft of the Ukrainian government.
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Let's keep in mind that nobody owns Ukraine anything. Zelensky's ungratefulness is not helping by the way. It was the job of the Ukrainian government to be ready for Russian invasion, not the job of Macron, Merkel, Meloni, et all to provide for Ukrainian defense.
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@Saluki, GAAP is mostly concessions which are expiring soon if I remember correctly. In general airports are great businesses, however:
a) Watch out for concessions versus owned outright
b) In Europe, Aena is a great business, however may be hurt by environmental movement of switching trips under a thousand miles to rail
c) Regulatory framework can be a blessing or a curse. While you want dual till structure (Aena has it), if I am not mistaken, Spanish government forced Aena to cut contract prices during Covid, that's why I no longer own Aena, I do not trust the Spanish government.
d) Capital allocation is very important - the Mexican airports (concessions) historically paid very high dividends. Aena is empire building.
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What are people's favorite places to go away for the summer with kids? Ideally a place that has ocean or sea where one can swim and a pleasant climate during the summer. (I know of Jersey Shore, Long Island, Cape Cod, Nantucket & Martha's Vineyard, Maine, and Hawaii, but wondering if people have other suggestions as the Balearic Islands, Sylt, et all.)
Thank you.
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2 hours ago, LC said:
Aside from first time buyers, if nobody is buying second homes/third cars because 6/7% rates have killed those markets, where are people putting those dollars? Seems like equities.
On Maui, the 2nd home market is still very strong because there is no inventory for sale.
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9 hours ago, Sweet said:
I have part of my money in Schwab and I think they pay 0.45% which is a bit of a joke. If they don’t change that soon I’ll move it out to IBKR which is paying 10x more.Just buy SNOXX (treasury money market fund at Schwab) that pays close to 5%, and is not subject to state & local income tax, a big deal in NYC, NY state, California, Hawaii, et all.
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@Spekulatius, thank you.
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4 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:
No, I don't know or care. Why is it so important to you? If you want to invest with them just contact them and see if they are open and they will provide you the information. I know they manage risk. Does the S&P manage risk? No, it is simply an index of large corporations and it will go up and down based on earnings, economics, and human greed/fear. Over time it will go up as long as the earnings grow. Being 100% invested in an index is a fine choice if you are comfortable with riding the ups/downs. Not everyone takes that approach. It's all an individual decision. Many people would not sleep well at night if they lost 50% of their money which the S&P 500 could easily do.
If you hold someone as worthy of admiration as an investor, you should know what his or her returns are, relative to risk that he or she has taken.
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1 hour ago, Gmthebeau said:
This is just what a friend told me. You need to consider that the last 15 years was a raging bull market essentially from the bottom in 2009. We started at a very low valuation in 2009. Today valuations are near extremes. Firms who manage risk will not do as well during raging bull markets. They will clean up when the tide goes out.
S&P 500 return from 12/31/2007 through today was 9.58% per annum, in line with 100 year history. Do you know what the Firm's 2008 and 2009 returns were?
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2 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:
no I don’t know over the past 15 years. It’s reportedly 20% annually since 1983.Do you by chance have a source? The reason that I ask is because a friend used to work at a very large pension fund (100bn+.) He told me that in 2020, they were offered an opportunity to invest in Baupost, and when they looked at the returns, they were not impressed, and passed on it. I was very surprised because of Seth's reputation but neither he nor his boss are fools.
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5 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:
If you sell at the top of a bull market and buy back at cheap you will end up with a lot more money in the long run. It's called risk management. You might google Seth Klarman and related investors you will learn they invest the same way. You want to buy more at cheap and sell at rich. You ideas are so basic I wonder if you are 24 years old just out of college?
#cluelesswindbag
Do you happen to know what Seth Klarman's return over the past 15.5 years (since 12/31/2007) happens to be? If so, would you or anyone else mind posting it? Thank you in advance.
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1 hour ago, dwy000 said:
I'm not sure how you compare if you don't use statistics.
Certainly homicides dont go underreported (you would hope). From the latest comparable stats (2021), NYC's homicide rate of 5.8 murders per 100,000 residents is way, way less than other large cities: Chicago (30), Houston (20), Miami (10.7), Oklahoma City (12), LA (10). Property crimes were 757 vs Miami at 3,716.
These could all be worse now than 2021 of course.
I think NYC feels worse because of how dense it is. Other cities have violent pockets and you can pretty much live in that city without ever feeling unsafe but in NY it's so dense it's harder to avoid even though its safter.
You said that NYC today is essentially the safest that it has been in the past 50 fifty years. I disagreed with you, so what does crime in Chicago have to do with this? Compare crime in NYC today versus 2013, or 2010.
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1 hour ago, dwy000 said:
Crime wise it is WAY better than almost any point in the past 50 years. Of course there's drugs and homeless etc but you're gonna get that in a city with 18mn people. There isn't a city without it. But NYC is also the center of the world for finance, art, theater, advertising, sports etc. That's the attraction. All the great things about Florida, Charlotte, Reno etc are what you look for AFTER you leave NYC. Or where you go for a week to relax. Nobody goes to NYC to relax or get the early bird special at TGIFriday. That's the appeal when you're young.
You cannot be serious. Crime is way worse than it was for a 15 year period between 1999 and 2014. You may come up with statistics, but when police downgrade crime, prosecutors don't indict, and criminals do not go to jail, what's the point of reporting a crime?
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@John Hjorth, I honestly did not read the subtitles. He did not address Prigozhin by name, but he did say that people could go back to their homes, enlist in the army or go to Belarus. However, I don't trust a word that Putin says. This whole thing is very, very weird, and I have never been good at reading political tea leaves, particularly in the Kremlin.
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26 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
What do you make of this? Seems to be a bunch of empty words to me (I read, speak and understand Russian fluently.)
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5 minutes ago, Haryana said:
what is your opinion on Japan, is Japan less nationalistic than China/India?
Japan is a declining power that depends on the US, so their nationalism is not a threat to the US.
Russia-Ukrainian War
in General Discussion
Posted
Ukraine’s Lack of Weaponry and Training Risks Stalemate in Fight With Russia - WSJ
Sadly, this is what I worried about a year ago, neither plan nor foresight on the part of the Western countries, and recklessness on the part of Ukrainians.