Dinar
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Posts posted by Dinar
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8 hours ago, Parsad said:
Those costs aren't solely related to home losses or personal property...that number is related to the destruction and rebuilding of infrastructure.
Imagine a 7.5 earthquake hitting the centre of Los Angeles. A lot of the loss would be related to rebuilding of infrastructure that isn't directly covered by insurance.
Cheers!
Parsad, with all due respect, that's just not true. You have water & sewer systems, which should have insurance, electric (private again should have insurance), internet (Again private should have insurance), no gas since no natural gas on the island. Roads have not really been damaged severely, at most ten or twenty miles of roadwork in the affected area anyway. Yes, an elementary school has been destroyed, but when I talked to two local builders, they told me that it would cost at most $5MM to rebuild.
But let's assume that you are correct. I know of no other place in the US where the replacement cost of infrastructure on a per person basis, is $350K per person ($4bn / 11,300 Lahaina residents.) If locals want to live in a place where infrastructure is so expensive, they should pay for it themselves rather than make taxpayers around the country pay for it. Why should the rest of the country subsidize people living in paradise? I am sure people in Alaska or the Bronx would be delighted to live in Lahaina at taxpayers' expense.
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I was long both Aena and Auckland airports in the past. In the former, government screwed the company during 2020-2021 on minimum guarantees, and I don't like capital allocation. Auckland diluted at the bottom.
On a going forward basis, I think Aena is going to be under major threat from long distance rail due to environmental issues, in addition, tourism to Spain may suffer if indeed the planet is warming. Auckland's valuation is insane in my opinion.
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Th
12 hours ago, Spekulatius said:With 15% of Floridians not having homeowners insurance ( I guess they have no mortgage) and 82% having no flood insurance, I think the implicit expectation is that any big catastrophe losses will be socialized.
This seems to be the strategy in Maui now. Their representatives asked for $4bn in aid ($330K per man/woman/child)! Most of the damage should have been covered by insurance. By the way, I love the Maui locals approach: tourists do not come, while the rest of the country send us cash to rebuild because we could not be bothered to work 40 hours a week, and buy insurance.
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1 hour ago, keegomaster said:
Started a position on DIS. Bob Iger's turn around is happening (improvement in FCF, ROIC), and the stock is trading at 5-yr lows. Happy to start here and build up if it keeps trailing lower.
Bob Iger is the one that got Disney into this mess, you think his arrogance will fix the melting ice cubes outside of parks?
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Marco Polo certainly had a very high opinion of the Mongol rule in China.
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7 hours ago, Gregmal said:
WHR
Greg, what is the thesis? Thank you.
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It is a binary situation. It is either a zero or it does really well. If the utility caused the fire, I don't care what the law says, it is a zero. The destruction is horrific, and loss of life is immense. Many kids died.
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Buffett disclosed stakes in DR Horton, NVR and Lennar
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4 hours ago, throw123 said:
ADRs`?
Local shares., NOT ADRs.
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Nintendo
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18 minutes ago, Parsad said:
Stocks generally should be trading at a price that gives you a return equivalent to the risk-free rate.
Risk free rate is going to be around 4.5% for the 30 year treasury.
At a P/E of 16, stocks earnings yield is 4.5%. Add growth in GDP (historically will be around 5%) minus 2% inflation, which equals 3%. At a P/E of 16, stocks will give a 7.5% annualized return after inflation.
Cheers!
Parsad, I am sorry, but I do not follow. At a p/e = 16, earnings yield = 6.5% (free cash flow yield is less), add in your 3% real GDP growth, you get 9.5% annualized post inflation. Meanwhile, 30 year TIP are at 2.1%, and 30 year Treasury is at 4.27%, so you think that stocks should have an 7.4% risk premium over 30 year treasury? Thank you.
I remember reading somewhere that Buffet used to discount company earnings (assuming a high quality business) by a rate on a ten year treasury. T
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1 hour ago, Parsad said:
If the 30 year bond is at 4.3% and rising, then how can stocks have a multiple of 25? Should be at P/E of around 16.
Cheers!
Why do you think so? How do you think what is the appropriate p/e for a given level of interest rates? Thank you.
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2 hours ago, ValueArb said:
Ukrainians rightly hated Russia gir the genocides of 1920s and 1930s. If I was a Ukrainian I think I would have thrown my lot in with the Germans over the Soviets too.And too bad those poles and Jews weren’t able to gain the protection of the Soviet forces er whoops.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitism_in_the_Soviet_UnionWhy is every defense of Russia always devolve into a Whataboutism? “other people did bad stuff” is never a justification for genocide of entire populations.
Who in Ukraine today is complicit in those crimes? Their “Nazi” Jewish President who lost family in the Holocaust?I don't defend Russia. I have hated Putin since I first heard of him in the 1990s. Anyone who joined KGB voluntarily in my opinion was not a good person.
Russia did not commit genocide in Ukraine in 1920s and 1930s. The communist run USSR with Stalin (a Georgian) did via Holodomor.
I would understand if someone whose family died during Holodomor would join the German army to get revenge against communists, but SS?
Yes, Katyn was a massacre and a war crime, what is your point? Yes, there was anti-semitism in the USSR, and only death of Stalin saved Soviet Jews from mass murder. That gives Bandera & Co a pass? Bandera and his men were responsible for over one hundred thousand Polish and Jewish civilian deaths. How is he different from Hitler? A civilized country would consider him a war criminal, today's Ukraine erects statues to him. A population and country that considers someone like Hitler a national hero does not deserve support in my book.
Yes, I understand that not everyone in Ukraine supports Bandera. My wife and I generously donated to help Ukrainian refugees, since I do not hold children responsible for the acts of their parents/grandparents/ancestors.
My wife is from Ukraine and three of my four grandparents are from there. That does not mean that I am blind to what is going there.
Ukraine is irrelevant to the US. Russia is a rapidly declining power, millions of its young people fled because of the war. How can it challenge the US? China yes, India, yes, Islamic terrorists, yes, Iran yes, Pakistan via jihadi exports and nuclear weapons, sure, but Russia? It is a paper tiger.
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2 hours ago, ValueArb said:
Russia can easily defeat Ukraine, if we drop our support.And history is full of Russian genocide against the Ukraine, including Holodomor, deportation and massacres of the Tatars, the liquidation of the Ukrainian Peoples Republic in 1921.
That’s just in the last century. And skips Russian genocides in nearby countries like Poland.
Holodomor was not Russian Genocide. It was Soviet genocide, oh and the Soviet Union was run by a Georgian - Stalin at the name. How is liquidation of Ukrainian Peoples Republic genocide? Massacres of Tatars? Care to provide details? Or are you referring to deportation of Crimean Tatars under Stalin?
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@ValueArb, by the way, there is a history of genocide conducted by Ukrainians against Jews and Poles, or do those do not count? Or and how many Russians were massacred by Ukrainian SS volunteers in World War II - division Galitchina? Bandera & Sushkevich are Ukrainian national heroes, how are they different from Hitler?
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26 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
Ok, 12.5% more GDP and 25% more troops by population.
Last year federal spending was $6.1 trillion across a 330M population.
It’s still a Russian propaganda talking point even if as I said, it was partially true. And Russia not only scores higher on corruption indexes, it has been probably the largest force working to corrupt Ukrainian politicians.
But by all means, let’s punish the Ukrainian citizens for throwing out a president Putin and the FSB foisted on them.
Why did he fight two wars to control Chechnya, to the point of having the FSB bomb Moscow apartments and kill hundreds of Russians in order to blame them? Resources and manpower count for more than religion.
It’s no longer the USSR, your perspective is to not worry about it until it’s well on its way of being rebuilt. Mine is to stop it from ever being rebuilt.
Kyiv was the original capital of the Kieven-Rus. They’ve long had close ties, similar languages, era. So what? Russia also has a history of genocide in Ukraine and Crimea to bend them to its knee. Who cares what patronizing names Russian imperialists have called them?When did Russia conduct genocide in Ukraine? j What is exactly the history of Russian genocide in Ukraine? Yes, Ukrainian writers were Russian imperialists, good point! Keep deluding yourself that Russia is a threat to the US, meanwhile Russia cannot even defeat Ukraine.
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@ValueArb, when you make up numbers, you lose credibility. Ukraine GDP was $211bn in 2021 and Russian GDP 1.78 trillion in 2021, so how do you get 25%? US is not spending $20K per capita, even if you include Social Security and Medicare.
Calling something a Russian propaganda point does not make it incorrect, or if Putin says 2+2 = 4, you will say it is not 4? How did Firstash, Kolomoisky, Akhmetov, Yulia Timoshenko et all make their fortunes?
What makes you think that Putin wants to add 70MM Muslims to Russia (Uzbekistan+Tajikistan+Turkmenistan+Kyrgizstan+Azerbajian)?
Yes, national defense is the job of the country, not someone else. Russia is not the USSR, neither in population nor in military might.
Before 1917, Ukraine (excluding Galicia which was added post World War II), was referred as little Russia in Russian literature, including by authors such as Paustovsky, a descendant of Ukrainian Getman.
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32 minutes ago, cubsfan said:
^^^^ Best to hold your nose and fund it.
What have we spent - $150B maybe?
If we didn’t- Russia would be in Poland by now…
No, Poland is a member of NATO, so Russia would not dare.
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2 hours ago, ValueArb said:
Thats a discussion of expanding security guarantees until Ukraine is a member of NATO. There is zero chance the US is winding down support of Ukraine while the war is ongoing. Trump and Desantis can't score any points by arguing that we should allow Russia to complete their torture, rape and genocide of the Ukraine.
Actually, it is very easy to show to US taxpayers why we should stop funding Ukraine. Ask US citizens - would you prefer $300 tax reduction for every person in your family or send that money instead to Ukraine and see the results! I would be that if a nationwide referendum was held, not even 40% would vote to help Ukraine rather than their own pocket. Ukraine was derelict in its duty to build an army that could deter Russia, instead its politicians were busy pillaging the country. Responsibility for Ukrainian defense rests with Ukraine, not the US!
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Actually, it is not IMBBY spin-off. It is a 30% owned subsidiary of BTI that is spinning 60% of its Indian hotel business. Brokers think the valuation will be 40x EBIT for the spun-off piece. Some depreciation is economic, some not.
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@longterminvestorand @dealraker, gentlemen, in your opinion, how hard would it be to turnaround WTW? Thank you.
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It's also a way to get cheap leverage. He borrows in yen at what 1%? Then buys assets at a 10% free cash flow yield. If yen runs up against the dollar, he has a hedge.
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Sold MSGE August 18 35 strike puts for $2.10
Railroads
in General Discussion
Posted
@dealraker, Charlie, I hate to go academic on you, but I think there have been a number of studies that should that companies routinely buy-back stock at the wrong time. It is almost a sell signal, with a few exceptions.