rogermunibond

https://www.ft.com/content/f7922fdb-01bf-4ffd-9c5c-79f15468aa71 PLA strategy of winning without fighting.

Adam Tooze has a very good post on the problems with young adult unemployment in China. Definitely bears watching. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-228-polarization-the-bigger?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=192845&post_id=135351585&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

Shvo betting on SF downtown with renovation of Transamerica Pyramid. I'm watching what happens here. Class A office obviously but maybe a bellwether. B and C office who knows? https://sfist.com/2022/12/21/new-owner-of-transamerica-pyramid-says-it-is-around-80-leased-promises-new-city-park-at-its-base/

Crackdown and tough talk prior to the Party Congress. Now that a third term has been secured, ease up and let the good times roll again. We'll see a repeat of this in five years prior to the next Party Congress.

Weschler's recommendation of trade journals is very relevant. I've found lots of good insight in waste management, railroad, and aluminum trade journals. Great resource for learning about an industry. FT and the Economist are good recommends as well.

Progressive down 14% today after earnings. Combined ratio coming in at 100.4.

Mexican airports have been a home run.

Amen to that. This thread is rapidly devolving not unlike the Disney thread.

A good thread on China and possible hukou reform that would open up domestic consumption demand. https://en.rattibha.com/thread/1676658899892445203

https://www.qsrmagazine.com/exclusives/welcome-people-first-revolution-raising-canes Seems like a lot of investment in personnel training and creating the right incentives for managers/crew.

If buybacks aren't making material dents in shares outstanding, if they are used to offset options dilution, if they are done at materially high prices but not when the stock is trading very cheaply, then don't give the company any credit for sensible return of FCF to shareholders and move on.

I think this discussion is omitting some of the recent events globally and in China that may have influenced the direction of Xi's development. None of this is original on my part. I've pulled this from reading various China analysts across the spectrum over the last dozen years. 1) GFC - we are all being highly ahistorical in not recognizing how profoundly this event shook the Chinese leadership's idea of what was the right development model for China. Under Jiang and Hu (1989-2012), China CPC had largely taken it for granted that the US economic model was the right path for them to follow. After the GFC, and the huge China stimulus in 2012 (?) that helped pull the global economy out of the doldrums of GFC crisis, they went back and re-evaluated this thinking. 2) 2012 Succession Turmoil - Bo Xilai and his downfall and the exposure of vast corruption and crime networks was the harbinger of Xi's 2013 anti-corruption campaigns. However, the bigger issue that was also espoused by Hu was that corruption was a huge threat to CPC legitimacy and rule. Xi's anti-corruption campaign took out Zhou Yongkang from Jiang's Shanghai clique, it took out General Xu who was basically running various divisions of the PLA as his own money making enterprise. I think Xi took a page from Bo Xilai who had used a "Red guard" movement to fire up in a populist way Maoist orthodoxy as a way to control CPC politicos in Chongqing, and so he rolled out Xi Jinping thought - basically as a prop to be able to control party members. What we've seen from Putin is a testament to unchecked corruption in an authoritarian regime. It leads to chaos and eventual loss of control.

My guesses. He was pretty young when he bought the lifetime pass - maybe 36. So $290,000 is a huge investment at that point. He was likely working as an auto dealer consultant and expensed the cost through his business. Otherwise back then when he bought it why not just buy a house. Racking up a 1M or 2M miles per year is hard work. He must like traveling A LOT. That extra time in the air has got to increase his overall radiation exposure and probably ups his cancer risk to some degree. Still not as cool as the guy who figured out how to game frequent flyer miles from Healthy Choice pudding cups. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Phillips_(entrepreneur)

iCloud, OneDrive, Google Drive, Dropbox. Any others? On premise hard drive that connects to your devices. I am shopping around for a solution after hitting the limit on free storage from several of the above. Is it worth the convenience and ease of paying $12/year to Apple or $24/year to Google? What are folks using for storing that mass of photos, videos, documents that modern life seems to generate?

The reply equivalent of if you like xxx so much why don't you marry him/her.

Interesting story. So apparently tort reform in Florida has unleashed a wave of auto liability lawsuits in Q1 trying to get ahead of the reform law being signed by the governor. Will eventually even out but Florida is apparently 10-15% of auto insurance claim lawsuits. https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/politics/2023/03/24/thousands-lawsuits-filed-florida-before-limits-kick-in-desantis/70045705007/ FT Alphaville has good coverage on the earnings calls from major auto insurers discussing their higher losses and increased premiums and reserves. https://www.ft.com/content/91342a20-2125-4530-9ccb-52b3efd03078

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/23/united-airlines-very-frequent-flyer/

I think maybe we have "creeping single payer" If anyone spends time in Taiwan, Japan, Switzerland, etc. they realize how Rube Goldberg the US healthcare system is.

It's very difficult. The ones that one to provide more traditional service are moving to concierge medicine. Very few doctors are operating in solo or small practices (basically a small business). The realities of electronic records, billing, insurance etc. make it too difficult to operate in a solo/small practice.

It's one lost sentence in the article but really for ERCOT to have better reliability the best solution is to connect to other MSOs. "Texas could also connect its isolated grid to neighboring ones."

Are there any major geographic differences between GEICO and Progressive policies? More East and West coasts for GEICO vs Progressive? A few other factors maybe affecting GEICO more than Progressive. Hyundai/Kia thefts (over the last year lack of electronic ignition safeguards has added a few points to auto theft rates nationally. More new/young drivers - drop in mass transit usage due to covid. More retired couples dropping two insured car households for one car, does this affect GEICO more than Progressive.

Buffett wasn't out front investing in banks during 2008-2009. He bought bonds in well run industrials mostly iirc. Even Berkshire can't stop contagion and certainly can't backstop a deposit run. His investment in BAC came much later. I could see if the BTFP is successful in reducing the bank fear/panic that he steps in with a preferred investment in SCHW or another bank. But only after the panic phase is over.

SIFI likely aren’t allowed to buy as they would get even bigger, no?

Berkshire would never buy it outright - would make BRK a bank holding company. Doubt WEB likes the assets either, similar to Bear Stearns or Lehman issues when WEB was asked to bail them out.