rogermunibond

Started to find some interesting investment ideas and good write-ups on companies on Substack. What are some of your favorite newer Substacks? Macro/China - Adam Tooze Chartbook BRKR stock idea - Notes from the Beauty Contest

@Wanderer Abel got an early version of this presentation https://blog.google/alphabet/investor-presentation-june-2026/#full-stack-approach-ai

If you look up where Google's confirmed hyperscale data center projects are located, they are not in the BHE regulated utility footprints. But that doesn't mean that BHE's merchant power group, BHE Renewables, isn't involved in building a BYOG power plant co-located with the Google DC. It's just not known.

Comments from XOM and CVX leadership strongly hint that inventories are rapidly depleting unless flows get turned on again. The market is terrible at pricing nonlinear outcomes.

The interesting thing from this investment by Greg Abel is that BRK is undoubtedly a customer of Google Cloud, as well as MSFT Azure, and AWS. And Abel probably has the technical competence to see what makes the GCP more valuable over time than say Azure or AWS.

So if we're in a bubble, and it's an earnings driven bubble, then on the flip side, it's government deficit spend that's driving it.

The homebuilders are all pretty much following the NVR model of asset light, right? There's not as much benefit as with Clayton Homes where Berkshire Hathaway Finance was able to fund Clayton's manufactured home mortgages more efficiently than lenders or private capital. I'll be curious to hear from the 8-k if TMHC was being shopped around. The FT mentions that Abel met with Palmer "after being introduced by advisers."

Flag disrepair is just a victim of staffing cutbacks. There was a time when nearly every govt office took the flag down at night and put it back up in the morning. Now it just sits out 24/7. Same for those homeowners who lazily put a flag out in front of their house leaving it out in rain, snow, sleet, and wind. Pretty simple, put it out in the day, and take it down at night.

Oil price + crack spread > $180 over a sustained period leads to recession. So the US is not there at $90 WTI and a $50 3-2-1 crack spread. https://rbnenergy.com/market-data/3-2-1-crack-spread

US DOE Data Center infrastructure map as of 11/2025

Isn't it more the airlines are card issuers? They partner with banks and the banks buy miles from them. But the airlines don't take on credit risk.

Just a WAG So 20K disability and then nearly 5.7 million individuals?

Heard a story from a friend in corporate supply chain. A large tech vendor that supplies this enterprise's PCs, laptops, servers etc unilaterally terminated their supply contract recently. Pricing on CPUs, DRAM, etc was the issue.

SSDI spend is $128 billion for 2025. Divide that by 45,000 disability benefit and you get maybe 2.85 million on SSDI. Less than 1% of the population. How long would it take to re-validate that SSDI spend?

UK gave it all away to BP and Shell https://tribunemag.co.uk/2020/12/how-north-sea-oil-shaped-britains-economy#:~:text='The first huge areas of,for forty-six years'. What could have been https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421520300331

Energy security will mean more development of all types of energy that a country has sovereign control over. I imagine the 2035 price of Brent crude will be below $50 barrel.

@dcollon I think Warren needs to have Greg and Ajit measured for custom suits from Trands

Buffett's thinking on high capital intensity changed as he had more capital to manage and businesses that threw off more and more capital every year. So his points on capex and inflation still hold, but he looked to invest in high capital intensity businesses where the moat (regulatory/legal, necessities of life, low cost/high need) are still strong. He kind of took on Morris Chang's high capital intensity strategy with TSMC. BHE is hedged on energy better in some markets than in other markets. MidAmerican is great, but PC, NV Energy are less hedged on solar/batteries/wind. I think the big issue with regulated utilities is if under high inflation, their regulated ROE is lowered, while their maintenance capex and replacement capex costs rise substantially, making it harder and harder for them to provide power and guarantee reliability and safety.

Soft market

Biggest S&P 500 losers

Brent curve doesn't get back to where it was pre Iran War until 2030-2032