rogermunibond

@SharperDingaan thanks so fading the crude spike hasn't been a very successful trade. Seems like the futures market is finally coming around to what physical oil prices have been screaming.

excellent nice deal for your family. have the developers talked at all about adding battery storage? yeah despite the federal credits going away the costs keep dropping, making solar+battery a great investment where the interconnect to the grid can be done quickly. would your family have planted pine on this land otherwise and is that what you had used it for previously?

@Eldad can you elaborate more on this timber land conversion to solar power facilities? examples, companies, where? TIA!

Japan SPR release affects Canadian oil deliveries to Asia.

$4+ at least through October is what the gasoline futures curve is pricing in.

Saudi Aramco announced their East-West pipeline is near capacity of 7Mb/d and ready to start loading tankers on the Red Sea. Cuts down quite a bit on the SoH blockage.

@SharperDingaan yes but right now Japanese refiners and importers are the strongest bid out there for oil.

@Dalal.Holdings Iran ships through the straits as well. So far no attack on Kharq Island, so tankers are still loading. Seems like one of the biggest developments in the oil world is that medium grades are higher in price than Brent or WTI. Lack of medium/heavy crude from Saudi, UAE, etc. -- which is needed by certain refineries that have to process a higher % of medium/heavy crude.

https://asia.nikkei.com/spotlight/iran-tensions/japan-gives-order-to-prepare-for-release-of-oil-reserves A senior Japanese lawmaker (Akira Nagatsuma) stated that officials from the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security (JOGMEC) at the Shibushi National Oil Storage Base received instructions on Friday (March 6 or 7) from the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy to prepare for a potential release. Japan holds one of the world’s largest emergency stockpiles: equivalent to 254 days of domestic consumption (government-owned ~146 days, private sector ~101 days, joint with producers ~7 days), totaling around 440 million barrels. This comes after Japanese oil refiners urged the government to tap reserves, as ~95% of Japan’s crude imports come from the Middle East (much via Hormuz), and disruptions risk shortages despite the buffer. Officials (including Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa) have emphasized no final decision or immediate release yet, monitoring continues, potentially unilaterally or coordinated with IEA partners.

It took 102 days from the start of the Ukraine War for oil to peak in June 2022. Along the way the first SPR (in coordination with G7) release was announced March 1 and the largest April 7. So the oil releases from basically April to October 2022. Here we are in day 9 and there hasn't been any SPR or G7 notice yet but they have discussed. First, I don't think the oil market is as tight as 2022. Second, the major supply issues are primarily with Japan and South Korea. Second, Japan has some serious issues because USD strength is making oil price rise worse than before. Third, BOJ could intervene to strengthen yen. Fourth, the biggest beneficiary of this current situation is Russia.

Currently 65% of SoH supply is curtailed.

Currently about 65% of the 20 Mb/day supply is curtailed. Still ample floating storage of Russian oil so India and China are supplied. According to Bloomberg, panic oil buyers mostly SKorea and Japan.

Taking kids out to do things in nature is really great. If you can get them interested in fishing, hiking, biking, canoeing, etc. Hard to do with really young kids but 7-8 is a great time to start. Never hear them say they are bored or wanting to go on a device. @rkbabang thanks for rec

SPR is nowhere close to where it was before 2022 drawdown. Iranians will call Trump's bluff. The longer they can hold out the better deal the regime will get.

@Parsad old Time Warner cable in the Midwest.

Early winner is Putin. Russian oil sanctions eased.

There's a ton of fiscal stimulus and now tariff rebates that have yet to flood the US economy. I don't worry too much about US GDP growth but sentiment might be bad. Developed Europe and Asia is another story as the energy headwind is going to hurt.

had a wired cable box like this one. @rkbabang nice looking turntable. we have a receiver too so it's nice to be able to not have to purchase the preamp. acrylic vs mdf?

I think the market is realizing the conflict is going regional and will take longer to resolve. Maybe 6 months or more.

@rkbabang in the past year - 6 (postcard, map, dictionary, encyclopedia, paper check, listen to CD) would be 7 but we haven't gotten around to buying a turntable for our vinyl. so much vinyl sitting in storage, hehe.

So from that list of 20, you have 2.