Spooky

What if your business does not have a lot of tangible assets?

Merry Christmas! Wishing everyone and their families a wonderful holiday season and New Year!

Oh Alberta, keep shining you crazy diamond.

Interesting article by Martin Wolf in the FT about Europe: https://on.ft.com/4gDLw3D Shows that the expansion of the EU to poorer countries has lead to increasing GDP per capita in those countries. Contrasts it with Mexico and Nafta where GDP per capita has gone backwards despite the opportunities supposedly afforded by its free trade agreements.

Agree. The amount of capital spending by these companies with respect to AI is huge. There is a good question on if they make a return on this investment. This Sequoia piece was pretty interesting: https://www.sequoiacap.com/article/ais-600b-question/ My view is that it is impossible now to predict who will be the individual winners in AI. It is like the Buffett example on the automobile sector - would have been better to short horses. However, if the technology is able to boost productivity then a wide range of companies and industries will benefit which is why I am putting more funds into broad based global equity ETFs.

Good thing I don't follow them or even know who they are!

Thanks for the post Dealraker. I generally agree that the pendulum is swinging too far towards euphoria. One of the signs to watch out for will be a wave of new IPOs which is always a good counter indicator. Time to be more cautious / selective.

Seems like the Simpson Bowles commission once again:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Commission_on_Fiscal_Responsibility_and_Reform

Congrats @Parsad! It has been a great year and run for me recently. CSU, which I have kept at roughly 50% of my portfolio, is up about 43% YTD and 271% over the last 5 years (not including dividends). The value of my CSU shares went up by more than my whole annual salary this year before tax! The rest of my portfolio has also been pulling its weight with my 25% position in BRK up about 29% YTD and 104% over 5 years. Keep on compounding!

Not a bad idea as a hedge. US on track for two consecutive years of 20%+ equity returns, something which has only happened four times since 1871. Only during the 1990’s bull market did the good fortune continue. Lots of optimism today. Lately I've been buying some JOE and putting some funds into my spouse's Wealth Simple account which has more international equity ETF exposure. Not going to touch my core equity positions CSU & BRK. Also have some S&P 500, S&P 600 and Fairfax.

A new golden age of crypto scams

This made me laugh!

Sign of the top?

Any particular companies you are looking at? I've been thinking something similar lately.

Decent article in Fortune about Berkshire comparing it to big tech: https://fortune.com/2024/11/30/warren-buffett-stocks-net-worth-berkshire-hathaway/ "So far in this tech-infatuated year, Berkshire’s stock has outperformed the shares of Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet. It has beaten the tech-heavy Nasdaq as well as the S&P, the Dow, and the Russell 2000." "Add up a company’s assets and then subtract its liabilities. What’s left is net worth. Apple’s net worth is $57 billion. Nvidia’s is $66 billion. Berkshire’s is $663 billion. Some of the other tech giants have a higher net worth than Apple and Nvidia have, but none reach even half of Berkshire’s."

New article in the FT about Fentanyl - US Fentanyl deaths have been falling for almost a year: https://on.ft.com/49aOdag

My guess is the legal mass over prescription of Oxycontin. It lead to many people getting addicted to opiates. It's a terrible tragedy.

I'm not a European but I use IB and it is exceptionally good and much better than the other options I have tried in Canada. Good rates on currency conversion, good interest rates on cash you park there, flexible and seems pretty secure. Only downside is it can be hard to easily look at dividends received and such but I set up a custom report which works alright.

The data on illegal immigration from the Northern border somewhere in the Trump Trade threads shows this is a de minimis issue compared with the Southern border. We also actually have illegal immigrants crossing the border from the US into Canada. I haven't seen any data on drugs coming from the Canada to the US so don't know if this is a real issue. The premise of Trump's negotiating position is potentially wrong.

As a Canadian, blanket tariffs are a disaster and will hurt the US as well. The trading relationship between Canada and the United States is the most comprehensive in the world, with the two countries as each other's largest trade partners

Agree - seems like he is going to step down imminently.

Interesting topic thanks for sharing.

Agree. The US government has been running a deficit of about 6.7% of GDP which is helping the US economy keep growing. Agree. Coming off of the run-up we had in the markets this last year and a half I am expecting more volatility. The Fed has been making noises that the US remains vulnerable to an inflation shock. Trump's / Republicans' policy goals seem contradictory with most voters wishes to lower inflation. Higher tariffs will increase prices and potentially damage global economic output. Mass deportation will increase labour costs. Also, if the Republicans extend the tax cuts without addressing spending then the deficit will get blown out even further. Layer on top of this heightened geopolitical risk and there is a lot of uncertainty. All that being said, I'm not selling down my equity positions based on macro factors, just going to make sure I have some extra dry powder / resilience for the year ahead.

Devil Take the Hindmost Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds Irrational Exuberance There are also a few chapters in Howard Marks' book The Most Important Thing which are great on bubbles and directly relevant to your question.

Ordered the book, looking forward to reading it.