backtothebeach

A quick look at the numbers, hope I got them all correct. 2023 Q2 Book Value BH SE in $M 539,883 A shares Q end 1,447,541 (Q end A shares, in text: On an equivalent Class A common stock basis) BV per A 372,966 BV per B 248.64 BV QoQ 7.2% BV YoY 18.7% Mcap 760,828 current B share $ 350.4 BV multiple 1.41 Cash cash & equiv. 44,611 treasury bills 97,322 cash railroad 5,444 payable for treasuries CASH total 147,377 Operating Earnings Insurance underwriting 1,247 top of Management's Discussion Insurance investment 2,369 Railroad 1,264 Energy 785 Pilot 114 MSR 3,389 non-controlled businesses 535 other 340 Operating Earnings 10,043 Buybacks A shares 1st 177 2nd 238 3rd 627 A shares price 1st 472,004.70 2nd 493,507.36 3rd 506,476.84 B shares 1st 220,351 2nd 3rd 2,134,093 B shares price 1st 308.57 2nd 3rd 335.55 Total buyback B$ 1.303 average A share equiv price 498,788 average B share equiv price 332.53 additional buybacks after Q end A shares 575320 Number of shares of common stock outstanding as of … B shares 1,308,070,268 A share equivalents 1,447,367 addtl. buyback A shares 174.15 average price since Q end 525000 add. BB estimated value B$ 0.091

Enjoyed listening to the podcast! Thank you. One aspect that was new to me, was that the stock price may get a boost from closet indexers finally getting tired of not holding an outperforming stock that’s part of the index, and buying in - after long enough proof that the company’s performance is durable.

How is this investment related? Come on guys, let’s have some discipline and not post more political crap than necessary.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/389-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-palestine-power-corruption/id1434243584?i=1000620933397 Enjoyed this interview by Lex Fridman with Israel's PM. Netanyahu is of course a politician who knows how to talk his book and make himself look good. Nevertheless I found it a good listen to balance out the overwhelmingly negative media coverage he gets.

There is a chance they will extend the deal with a slight bump in acquisition price. Depending on the size of the bump, if there is one, the stock may trade above $95 this Friday.

Did you have a few drinks before dictating this? Haha

Decided to close this trade out for now. There could be a lot more juice in it over the next 18 months, but I don't trust AI as a company - if the hype/short squeeze ends, it could drop back down below $20 easily. This was a diagonal spread: Long AI Jan17'25 strike 15 call Short AI strike 30 calls over the duration of the trade Initial cost $14.15. Over the course of 5 months I sold and rolled short term calls, and last week my net cost was $8.68. So let's say my average capital at risk was roughly the mid point between the two: $11.42. Closing it out netted $15.82, a ~38.5% return on average capital at risk in less than 5 months, and $7.14 (times 100 shares) total profit per contract. These "poor man's covered calls" using a DITM LEAP instead of stock, are a bit of work, but I find them suited for situations where my base case is that the underlying could go nowhere for quite a long time, and be volatile enough to have short term premiums (premia?) that are worth selling. Ideally, unlike AI, the underlying value is there and protects your downside - like GM, possibly, as mentioned upthread.

What a genius author he must be! Somehow reminds me of Kim Jong-Il’s amazing golf skills: Associated PressKim Jong-Il never needed a swing coach to master the sport of golf. Kim shot 38 under, including 11 holes-in-one, at the 7,700-yard championship course at Pyongyang in the VERY FIRST golf round of his life, according to North Korean state media. I would guess that buying XJP’s books is almost mandatory if you are in any kind of oficial position in China. Gives you social credit points.

He has probably benefitted more than if he had invested the $520,000 in something else, especially if he flew a lot in the early years. Although long term bonds yielded 8.5% at the time.

This guy was scheduled for mission 3 a few weeks before, was on the ship, had briefings, saw the submarine from the inside, and filmed the whole thing.

Because they all use the same sources, Reuters and AP, and are more inclined to present information (propaganda) from Ukrainian sources as fact than from Russian sources?

Tom Cruise is probably getting all kinds of infusions and stem cell treatment every few weeks... Apart from being very disciplined. Anyone here ever got stem cells for a particular injury or for general health purposes?

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Maybe "flawed" was too strong a word. The results of the study may be mathematically correct with the method they are using. Here is a good argument that questions the applicability of the study for real life investing: https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=406114835 I'm not married to criticizing the study, eiher. If anything, it highlights the importance of Buffett's rule #1 and #2: Don't lose money. Don't hold stocks of questionable businesses. I've held one stock into bankruptcy in my investing career, and have hopefully learned enough not to do that again. As an extreme example: If in 50 years Berkshire's corporate governance goes to shit, and an inept and dishonest management bankrupts the firm, would you say that Berkshire (never paid dividends) did not create wealth during its lifetime? That's presumably what the Bessembinder study would say.

It's a flawed study that is quoted a lot, maybe to make people feel better ("oh well, I wasn't so lucky to pick one of the few winners, that's why I lost money. It's a damn casino, that stock market"). Most stocks have a positive return in any given year. In fact, equal weight indices have only a small % in those 0.3% of stocks that allegedly make up 50% of "wealth creation". Yet somehow equal weight indices have a similar performance as market cap weighed indices, sometimes better.

Yeah I bought something called Wagyu at an HEB supermarket a few weeks ago, it looked beautiful, but turned out terrible, was like 50% water. Not $250 a pound of course, should have known.

No I did not exit. Currently long the AI Jan17'25 15 call and short the Jun02'21 30 call. The latter still has more than $1 of time value that will disappear by Friday. Moreover, rolling the short $30 call forward two weeks (even today, 1 day before earnings come out) netted another $1 of time value. I did this for a third of the position. After earnings I will roll the rest. I think this hype is not going to die so quickly, and am planning to keep milking the insane implied volatility while the stock bounces around. You are right that taking the $15 to the bank now would be the other, and maybe wiser option.

C3.AI stock is up 30% to $43 today, looks like a short squeeze mixed in with the hype about all things AI these days. The original trade was Long AI Jan17'25 strike 15 call Short AI Feb17'23 strike 30 call A $15 diagonal spread. Despite bad timing my net cost is now below $10, after continuing to sell short term $30 calls against the long call. No upside risk here, if the stock goes to $1000 the spread will still be worth $15. Of course I hope it will fall back closer to $30 after earnings tomorrow, for further selling of juicy call premiums over the next 19 months.

Thank you I had missed that. "The payments made by the total return receiver are equal to LIBOR +/- an agreed-upon spread." When the TRS was entered the timing was perfect. LIBOR in 2020 was around 1%. One year ago it was ~2.7%. However right now the 12-month LIBOR is 5.6%. I would think the rate paid by Fairfax adjusts year by year - unless the original contract locked the rate long-term. 5.6+% may still be ok, but not quite the home run it was 2020-2022. Can we deduce the effective rate paid by Fairfax to the counterparty from the published numbers?

Do we know when the TRS expires?

You can create and save custom reports where you select only the items that you want to be included.

Everyone focusing only on the Fed and interest rates… Channeling @wabuffo … when the debt ceiling negotiations result in federal spending cuts or at least stop spending increases, wouldn’t that be the final nail in the coffin for inflation?

Yeah right. https://apnews.com/article/china-covid-citizen-journalist-b540f6458bc782b916dcd3aaa3571c12

Lol, yeah the stuff is pretty toxic and hard to stop nibbling on. I mean look at the ingredient list. Better to eat in small doses: Peanuts, Sugar, Butter, Corn Syrup, Salt, Baking Soda, Vanillin.

Doing.my part… First time trying. So eating a lot of this makes you live as long as Charlie Munger, did I get that right?