backtothebeach

Q2 stock holdings are out. Not a lot of movement: from https://www.dataroma.com/m/holdings.php?m=BRK KR Add 21.01% AON Add 7.32% RH Add 2.02% OGN Buy USB Reduce 0.62% CVX Reduce 2.32% ABBV Reduce 10.23% GM Reduce 10.45% BMY Reduce 15.27% MMC Reduce 20.63% MRK Reduce 48.79% LMTYK Reduce 74.46% AXTA Sell 100.00% BIIB Sell 100.00% LBTYA Sell 100.00%

Nice call! CRBU has now retraced 33% of its $ gains from the low of $15.03 to the high of $28.96. If it retraces 50% the reentry price could be around $22. I actually don't use TA usually, but how else would you find a method for trading around a position if not retracements, support/resistance, or gaps? Interestingly there are no gaps to be filled, even though the rise took only 9 trading days.

I don't claim to understand everything explained in the link, but I think Bernie Madoff would have found this interesting. Doesn't sound like anyone will go to jail over the lost millions/billions.

Thanks, I missed the liability: cash & equiv. 56,826 treasury bills 85,385 cash railroad 3,228 payable for treasuries -4,084 NET CASH 141,355

I thought it was hilarious how WEB was searching for his little newspaper clipping of interest rates for an entire minute, seemingly giving up at times and then starting searching again, and was happy as a kid when he found it At 2:46:00

I dunno, a few numbers in the article seems off. I get: Shareh. equ. in million 447987 Q end A shares 1525655 BV per A 293636 BV per B 195.76 and: cash & equiv. 56826 treasury bills 85385 cash railroad 3228 NET CASH 145439

Thanks gfp, should have gone directly to the source!

Will Q2 earnings be published this Saturday before the annual meeting (May 1st), or next Saturday, May 8th? I have not seen a press release, and am finding conflicting information online. Thx

The volume spike seems a bit much for one institution only, although...maybe a sovereign wealth fund. The Goverment Pension Fund of Norway (Global) has over $1T in assets. They are also trying to become greener, and Berkshire recently mentioned that they would invest billions in renewable energy infrastructure.

Maybe the software has a "Don't ask me again" check box for the popup window?

You're absolutely correct! Go down to the "Provisional Death Counts For Covid" on the link you selected. Go through deaths for each age group...you'll see spikes in all categories, especially younger ages, into December (15-24). And then you see the massive drop in deaths as people began to get vaccinated from January. I'm glad you selected that link, since it's about as clear as I can get about the matter! One can act smart without taking the vaccine, but your own data shows that taking the vaccine has a much more dramatic effect than just "acting smarter". Cheers! That makes zero sense. The CDC link was interesting - younger age groups had their peak deaths the weeks of January 9 to 23. That usually means they were infected in the second half of December or the beginning of January. At that time only 0.1-1% of the U.S. population had been vaccinated, practically all of them care providers or risk groups (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). So you are saying that vaccinating this tiny fraction of people, somehow was miraculously the cause for a fall-of-a-cliff type drop in contagion and subsequent death rate of younger cohorts? Not to mention that the vaccines only protect the vaccinated from severe outcomes, but not from getting infected and potentially spreading the virus - or so we are told. No, vaccination dropped death rates for all categories...you can see the stats for yourself from January to present day. As the number of vaccinated people increased, the transmission rates dropped...the number of pneumonia cases dropped...the number of deaths dropped. Is it any wonder the number of influenza cases was so low in North America this year? That is due to social distancing, lockdowns, masks, increased disinfection...and you also see a decrease in Covid cases as inoculations occur. This is common sense and would be expected. Do vaccines carry risk...yes...but at extremely low levels as we've seen globally as inoculation results are studied more and more. Cheers! Alternative explanation: Peak transmission was Christmas and New Years, peak death rate 2-3 weeks later. With a finite population you can only have exponential growth for so long, and then you have a decline. Good example is South Dakota. No lockdowns, business closures etc., thus the curve was moved forward in time, and slightly higher (in terms of death per million). It peaked at the end of November, and dropped steeply the whole month of December with no vaccines yet. I'm not against vaccines at all, the start of vaccines probably steepened the drop in death rates, and, more importantly, will hopefully keep the curve down forever. I'm on the fence if people under 24 or 35 should be vaccinated. There maybe be an argument that children's organisms should get the chance to develop natural immunity, which I think may be broader than just immunity against a specific spike protein of a mutating virus, but I'm not a doctor.

You're absolutely correct! Go down to the "Provisional Death Counts For Covid" on the link you selected. Go through deaths for each age group...you'll see spikes in all categories, especially younger ages, into December (15-24). And then you see the massive drop in deaths as people began to get vaccinated from January. I'm glad you selected that link, since it's about as clear as I can get about the matter! One can act smart without taking the vaccine, but your own data shows that taking the vaccine has a much more dramatic effect than just "acting smarter". Cheers! That makes zero sense. The CDC link was interesting - younger age groups had their peak deaths the weeks of January 9 to 23. That usually means they were infected in the second half of December or the beginning of January. At that time only 0.1-1% of the U.S. population had been vaccinated, practically all of them care providers or risk groups (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). So you are saying that vaccinating this tiny fraction of people, somehow was miraculously the cause for a fall-of-a-cliff type drop in contagion and subsequent death rate of younger cohorts? Not to mention that the vaccines only protect the vaccinated from severe outcomes, but not from getting infected and potentially spreading the virus - or so we are told.

... may be related to the poor risk-reward profile... Let's address the elephant in the room: There is no money to be made in cheap, early-onset treatment, therefore no political interest in the developed world. If studies are funded publicly, ultimately it becomes a question of politics. Studies in developing countries are all flawed of course...(kinda racist if you ask me - not referring to board members here). Lot's of money to be made with treatment of more severe cases, so no problem to emergency approve Remdesivir with only a doubtful Gilead sponsored study.

Paper trades Feb 11, 2021, 11:40am EST: Long 120 APHA @ 19.00 Short 1 TLRY Jan 2022 17.50 call @ 23.60 (@ bid + 25% of bid-ask spread) Net: $80 (credit) Long 120 APHA @ 19.00 Short 1 TLRY Jun 2021 18 call @ 22.60 Net: -$20 (debit) Wrapping up this arbitrage trade, I just discoverd that IB can graph these combos. Both trades have been at an overall profit of about $1000 for a while. Waiting for expiration is a bit long, and who knows what will happen to the merger (since these were paper trades I haven't paid attention). So the opportunity was definitely there when the OP saw it. Hard to quantify what the max risk was, though. What could have been the worst short squeeze spike in TLRY? 10x maybe? Also the merger could have fallen apart, with TLRY permanently disconnecting from APHA. Edit: Also APHA could drop below $9, in which case the combo could never be worth more than $1100 (long 120 shares).

It's fascinating to watch my own psychology, fighting the urge to cover my (miniscule) TSLA short. I had no problem with the paper loss when the stock hit $890. Now that I have a small gain (a smaller total amount than the previous paper loss), I am tempted to cover, even though my thesis was that the stock would pull back at least to the $500-550 range at some point. What's wrong with taking a profit now? With this small trade it doesn't matter, but getting into the habit of tolerating large downside (in terms of P/L), but not allowing the upside to play out, seems like a bad strategy overall. Damn, covered my small TSLA short, too, at $611. So hard to hold a meme stock short. Average sale price was $779.

It's fascinating to watch my own psychology, fighting the urge to cover my (miniscule) TSLA short. I had no problem with the paper loss when the stock hit $890. Now that I have a small gain (a smaller total amount than the previous paper loss), I am tempted to cover, even though my thesis was that the stock would pull back at least to the $500-550 range at some point. What's wrong with taking a profit now? With this small trade it doesn't matter, but getting into the habit of tolerating large downside (in terms of P/L), but not allowing the upside to play out, seems like a bad strategy overall.

Could have been much worse than a wobble, according to Interactive Brokers' Thomas Peterffy: Meanwhile, our boy Deep F___ Value bought 50000 more shares today, apparently below $40:

Yeah, yesterday was even better, I just posted two paper trades, let's see how it works out.

Paper trades Feb 11, 2021, 11:40am EST: Long 120 APHA @ 19.00 Short 1 TLRY Jan 2022 17.50 call @ 23.60 (@ bid + 25% of bid-ask spread) Net: $80 (credit) Long 120 APHA @ 19.00 Short 1 TLRY Jun 2021 18 call @ 22.60 Net: -$20 (debit)

Looking at the option chain I could not find a hedged way to do it (which does not mean there isn't one...). IVs are so high that credit spreads don't bring in enough. If you are willing to go naked, selling TLRY July or January 2022 calls, and buying APHA (at the merger ratio) from the proceeds should work. Select the short call strike so your net cost is 0. If you can stand the possible short squeeze in terms of your margin... I might put on a paper trade. Too risky to do with enough money to move the needle in real life.

Could be COST (Costco) as well. The stock disappeared from the last 13F.

$7 - $10B option is missing...

Have you tried contacting IB via chat about this? I have a diagonal spread where the plan is to roll the short option forward each week as long as the premiums are so crazy. Luckily (?) yesterday I already rolled the 01/29 expiry to 02/05. If they don't sort it out until Monday/Tuesday I'll try to request that they enable my account to trade these options. Maybe a futile attempt, but otherwise they would force me to close out the trade altogether.