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Xerxes

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Everything posted by Xerxes

  1. @Luca Not related to the war, were you in Germany when this happened ? I am curious about how locals saw it. Surely this must have been an exercise of sovereignty. https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/23/investing/germany-gold-reserves-new-york-paris/index.html “In recent years, rumors and conspiracy theories circulated in Germany about its foreign gold reserves. Some fringe observers questioned whether they had been lost or otherwise compromised. The issue eventually spilled over into mainstream politics, and the German Federal Court of Auditors asked for an inspection of foreign gold reserves in 2012.”
  2. As the saying goes: ”war takes a life of its own”. who / why / when it all started becomes all meaningless with passage of time. ———- Ex: It didn’t matter if the Iraqi started the war in 1980. By 1988 the notion of “winning” was no longer the same as it was in 1981. ———- Worse, scares of a long war, shapes the thinking of that generation that fought the war. Who later became decision makers. War may have ended but the politics and the hard feeling stays. It takes another full generation to get past that. Long past the attention timespan of an average Westerner, itching for his/her war from safety. One thing for sure, post-ceasefire in the Eastern Europe is the perfect ground for Kremlin to continue “its work”. There will be enough “grey zone” and holes to drive several An-225 through (not that the plane still exists). What will be an “exit valve” for Western powers after being too tired of playing game of thrones will be an open field for the Kremlin. After all, what happens on your border is actually a matter of national security. As it is for the Kremlin. The cycle will go on
  3. If they are betting on Egypt reforming, this is a very bad bet. Egyptian economy is enslaved to its Army and the latter has deep entrenched business interests. Might as well call their army, a state within a state, with its pawn in everything including coffee shops
  4. It is worse than that, after betting all on “making sure Russia cannot win, making sure Ukraine does not lose”, we might be living in a world in 2025 where there is a change in US administration and policy for better or worse. If it was matter of national security under Biden, how could “national security” shifts so suddenly due to an election. if there is a 180 degree a year from now, maybe it was not a matter of national security, but a nice to have.
  5. For clarity, UK’ nuclear arsenal are close coordinated with that of US, both at the technical level and as well as planning purposes. Whereas the French nuclear forces is truly independent and sovereign. That French nuclear deterrence by extension de facto strengths NATO nuclear umbrella as well. But it is independent. Cannot say the same about UK. Source: The Economist
  6. As of today 6.5%, and the balance 93% is all long stocks. No direct exposure to bonds.
  7. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html “The war has absolutely “transformed” Russia’s economy, the NATO official said, from the post-Soviet period when oil was the leading sector. Now, defense is the largest sector of the Russian economy, and oil is paying for it. That creates some long-term imbalances that will likely be problematic for Russia, but for now, it’s working, the NATO official and Basham, the US European Command official, both said. “In the short term — say, the next 18 months or so — it may be unsophisticated, but it’s a durable economy,” the NATO official said.”
  8. You complain too much about your Nord Stream pipeline getting a "makeover" A true NATOrian would give up his/her firstborn for the cause, no question asks !! no ifs, no buts Ask Not What NATO Can Do for You, Ask What YOU Can Do for NATO (hint: +2% GDP would be start)
  9. We are safe. No worries FDR is currently giving a speech at the State of Union. Oh wait a minute Now it changed. Ronald Reagan is giving speech about “Berlin Wall”
  10. For those interested, I call them today and confirmed with them there will be a virtual connection to the AGM. The link on the “news” section will be updated shortly.
  11. Was listening to Lex interview with Tucker. It was really entertaining and funny.
  12. I think it is about 15-16% for me. I don’t think it can get any higher without restructuring the portfolio by selling stuff
  13. we are just happy not to deal with this comedy act from crica 2000
  14. Saw Dune last night. Fantastic. Geidi Prime was awesome. That scene was right from the book. David Lynch never bothered adapting it in his 1984 adaptation. Understandable. But Villneuve had more real estate to play with, time wise. What were missing were 1)Count Fenring. Though we got to see his beautiful sorcerer wife. My understanding is that an actor was chosen to play Count Fenring. Therefore there could be actual footage that were filmed but later cut. I am ok with that for the theatrical version as long as there is an Extended Edition ? 2) The Mentat was nowwhere to be seen. Again I understand that subplot not adding much, but don’t know if it was not filmed, or filmed but cut out. I need that back in !! If you please. 3) Guild Navigators. In the book, you really get to see who has the power and it is not House Corrino. It is the Guild. They are nowhere to be seen in this movie. How dull !! The movie rightly closes off with the coming war between the Great Houses and the usurper, which would bridge to Dune Messiah. It is important to know that military conflict was never depicted in the books and that Dune Messiah was more of a palace intrigue story. I would expect that Villeneuve would adapt that military conflict in his third movie, otherwise Dune Messiah would be dull third act. Xerxes has spoken.
  15. stunning, but Munger characterize them as “giving Warren something to do, so he doesn’t tinker too much at larger scale” (something along those lines)
  16. I have made aware of James Clavell’s epic 6-book Asia series for more than 15 years ago. Never got around to it till now. The first is called Shōgun. After I found out last year that Disney/Hulu was producing a televised version, I bought the first book. And started reading in October 2023. It is 1,100 pages long and I am closing to page 700. it is very complex story with a diverse cast of characters, which at one point you get to see on a recurring basis so get used to it. So it does get easier. The backstories is told in piecemeal during conversations at then present day, and you get to understand the “plan within plans” and shifting loyalties. I also watched the first two episodes on Disney, it was absolutely amazing to see all the highlights of what I read depicted on live TV. Really good adaptation in my opinion.
  17. Good episode. Talks about a variety of Berkshire related topic. it is interesting that Josh Brown although has heard of Markel, doesn’t know much about. The FFH and Markel crowd are really flying under the radar.
  18. If you add Blackberry’ market cap to that of Apple, you get 2.77T
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