Xerxes

I don’t know about US Civil War. Never read anything on it. But the counter example to Korea would be LBJ running the war from the White House and directing the bombing campaign in the North. While hampering Westermoreland, who operated in South Vietnam as his sandbox. The fear of the Red volunteers crossing into North Vietnam was real and influenced by MacArthur running wild and what happened on the Yalu river in the previous war. Nevermind that North Vietnamese were not North Korean and the former not exactly on the same page with Peking, neither historically nor ideologically. Yes civilian control of the military is a good thing. But when personal politics start to hamper national security that is a cause for concern. in my view, Ukraine will be going through Taiwanization stage (dictatorship, autocracy) before it become fully democratic. Everyone knows about Taiwan today but not the Taiwan from 60s and 70s. There was a prerequisite and price to pay.

I am still dragging myself kicking and screaming through The Pacific

The fracture has been months in the making. The article that the good general wrote on The Economist last year made the spat public. Looks like Zelenskyy is looking for his own version of Kietel and Jodl. The “yes men” High Command. In some ways the very nature of the spat reflect that the Ukrainian government is not any danger of being overrun and overthrown by Russian forces nor more Ukrainian territory is in danger of being overrun. Unity fractures and old politics surfaces when imminent danger is no longer there. Read: stalemate, however you define it.

Not exactly the same market, nor growth rate nor maturity. But there was a passage on The Economist few back years back about Gatwick airport as it changed hands between GIP and a French infrastructure investor. From 2018 2023: “London Gatwick Airport has served 32.8 million passengers in the fiscal year ending 31 December 2022, achieving 70.4% of 2019 traffic. The passenger numbers increased by over 420%, from 6.3 million in 2021” still at 70% of pre Covid traffic !

RIP Carl Weathers

I don’t know if this is a 30 year portfolio for Altimeter. But they tend to keep for long haul.

^^^ that they knew there billions to be booked when the short was going to be covered, and I don’t think that was in stock (I didn’t know FFH back then but that is my historical understanding) reverse of what Goldman did. Made fees by selling the long-bet products, then went short with its own capital.

It would be interesting to know the history behind the TRS. What went through their minds as they contemplated the move in 2020-21. It is not something they came up just at the moment. It makes you wonder if it is something they wished they put in place back 2009-10.

we should not compare wars of 60 years ago to today’ realities. Hitler did not build the German war machine on its own. He inherited a highly industrial juggernaut of a nation steeped in military traditions. Hitler or not, the Prussian military caste would have had its revenge. It just got far worse than needs be with the madman at the helm. it is never all about the effectiveness. Those 190,000 troops occupy perhaps a fifth of Ukraine, but had an outsize role in reshaping the geopolitics for years to come, regardless of their effectiveness to take Kiev or not in early 2022. A lot of people on this board and Twitter enjoy making scorecard of things Russia lost by going in Ukraine in 2022. All of which are quantifiable and probably correct and accurate. But there is a key point. As that is a very Western point of view as to what is important. Geopolitics is not about running NPVs. The real question to ask is: Does Kremlin prefer its situation in 2024 or in pre-2022 era ? Understanding that Kremlin does not work for the Russian people. It never did in recent times.

Article 5 is only good if it is reinforced. Technically speaking interference in U.S. election could be an act of war, technically speaking foreign agents conducting assassination on Canadian soil targeting Canadian citizens could be an act of war. Both of which ought to trigger Article 5. So it comes down to interpretation, what is the right response etc. and even then NATO members need to decide to participate. If Turkey and Greece get into an armed conflict against each other, does that trigger Article 5 on both sides. The whole thing is a bit silly. So it comes down to signaling, first and foremost. I personally don’t Finland has anything to fear. And not because of Russian lack of capabilities. Ukraine is different.

legendary indeed. so was British betrayal of that heroic resistance against the Stalinist colossus, the moment Germany invaded the Soviet Union

https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-acquirers-podcast/id1454112457?i=1000642465517

The geography of south east Asia is not easy navigate. Especially Indonesia. There is a local network on each island to overcome. Sure Grab or whoever could be easily de-throned in Singapore. But ..

Funny how for years Sokol and Bing hammered the previous Seaspan’s management for putting the company in such a position that end up of it not being able to take advantage of market dislocation. Yet for whatever reason, fixing their debt exposure to interest rate movement didn’t cross their mind. Notwithstanding the fact that their biggest shareholder was making a big bet exactly on that happening.

I use to love that documentary type. I got into it when watching the “Meltdown” on PBS Frontline. Or that episode about MerrilLynch merger with BoA. That was just great TV. PBS Frontline is/was just awesome. but being a traditionalist I never got into this “new age” Netflixization of documentaries. I watched the one about Carl Icahn on HBO. It was ok. Maybe because I watch/listen to so much business/economics TV:podcast that I find documentaries not that interesting.

Thanks. Clearly I didn’t remember correctly. just hope the table is back

Last year in the letter, Buffett removed the usual table with top ten positions. It was presumed (after the Tokyo trip) reason being to hide the increasing ownership of the 5 Japanese companies. Not sure if that assumption had any merit, unless he was going to basket them as one line item. Or maybe one of them was showing up as the 10th largest holding and he didn’t want to show just one. in any case, I would love to see the table back in this year’ letter. And for him to put the Japanese investment in context with the rest. Yes, one can do that on its own. But prefer to see it from the master.

Thank you John. I will receive the book in a few weeks. Will comment here on its workmanship. Wanted to read the 90s and 00s letter now forever. Getting close to my goal.

I just ordered the yellow cover page book. $100 CAD Hopefully the formatting is done right. As the content is really available for free and owned by BRK. So we are really buying for proper formatting and neatness.

1) Constellation Software 2) HEICO 3) American Tower 4) Moody's 5) Berkshire 6) Old Dominion 7) XPO Copart 9) Brown & Brown 10) Dino Polska just shamelessly stealing ideas from other sources. I am not expert on any of these. the last one came up in a few podcast.

Much like investment track record which is meaningless over a year or two, and that it needs to be shown consistent on a very long term, I would say when it comes to geopolitics, right/wrong compass and morality as expressed by individuals also needs to be consistent over the long term. It cannot be that sometimes, it is very black-and-white Tolkienish talking up the moral compass angle, and sometimes it is realpolitik donning the Kissingerian hat and sometimes it is just total ignore because we cannot be bothered, because it is not exciting enough or the victims look different. Then again we are all imperfect humans. So we cannot expect to have perfect points of views.

Blackmail. Pure and simple.

be safe

ask Chris about Cuban missile crisis

True Detective Season 4 trailer looked very icy and cold. I am waiting for the weekend. It is going to be -20 where I am. So that I can watch it an enjoy it. wont be like -50 as I heard Western Canada will be. But that will do