Xerxes

I would take a troublesome little Kim over normalization of using nuclear weapons. The post-1945 nuclear taboo has been a blessing. And that blessing is compounded by the longevity since last it was used in war.

Powerful image … missa thinks If Trump wins, I would wager he might have United States join the BRIC as well. G20 will be dismantled

Amazing ! had a call with RBC, the global trading platform will be available for Canadians starting Dec this year. But with the caveat that there would be real time FX conversion at the time of purchase of disposal. And that dividends will be in CAD/USD no more pink sheets.

Different things: Korea was a communist project. Korean War was largely Mao’ war after Nov 1950 … the communist block had hand-picked the Kim Dynasty. Not so with Vietnam. It is Ho Chi Minh that found communism (in Paris) as a vehicle to throw off European colonial yoke off his people. He was above all a nationalist. He was no Soviet project and definitely not a Mao’ protege, with whose regime he fought two bloody wars in the 1980s. The Soviet didn’t direct the war in Hanoi no more than Washington DC is not directing Israel War in Gaza.

There are no rules to these things …. as outbreak of hostilities is a matter of perspective. The enemy gets a vote too … Vichy France signed the instrument of surrender in 1940. So as far as the French were concerned the war has ended. To your point …. But DeGaullle felt differently, so did the hostility ceased or not .. That said I think the closer analogy is probably Viet Cong, which were the rebranded Viet Minh, … and the resistance in south east Asia was probably building its hidden infrastructure assets for decades prior to the Tonkin gulf incident etc etc PS: we in the West may think Tonkin gulf incident as the beginning of the “flare up”, but for the adversary we were there for decades

Yes. They are not exactly noble rebels nor awe-inspiring in their dark deeds. Though if I had to guess the 2024 global outrage has been a “bonus” for Hamas. But not the original intent. The original intent would have been to derail the Saudi-Israeli normalization that was so close … for now the extremists in Tel Aviv have been unleashed as well as the moderate pro-Abraham leaders in Arab countries shamed …., that means no normalization with the Kingdom for the time being.

100% correct on war crimes. And what is more that would also constitute conducting terrorism against the occupying state in eastern Ukraine, whether or not the (partisans) use human shield. And supporting powers of those partisans would be states sponsoring terrorism. I bet French resistance hid weapons in civilian areas. No partisan is ever going to put an “X” on their assets for a far more powerful adversary to simply take them out. I am not trying to trap you with arguments. Just that will be the next chapter in eastern Ukraine when the formal hostilities ends through an armistice. —- Hamas and Hizbollah mistake was not their tactics in of itself. Those tactics were sealed the moment they chose to continue to be “resistance” entity for whatever ideological / nationalist reasons and go toe to toe with a far more powerful adversary. Their (Hamas and Hizbollah) mistake was their hubris in 2006 or whenever Israel withdraw, to continue with their “resistance” paths. Let’s hope the same hubris is not going to take the Israeli leadership too far

likewise sir. one more quiz question for you above :

suppose the Eastern part of Ukraine is wholly occupied by Russia post-armistice in 2025. And the war formally is paused for several years. do you think the Ukrainian partisans and terrorists whatever you might want to call them that disagree with the armistice and the new status quo, and just want to get after Russians (civilian and military) would put an “X” on their military equipment in open view … or would they try to hide those like cowards in populated area ? what would you do ? PS: this is not a far fetched scenario. This could happen if Trump does get elected. War may actually get paused and parties retrenched.

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/truman-leaflets/ See link. If it actually helps or not, I wouldn’t know.

yes. Correct. but on your example, I don’t think a Saudi Visa is issued based on religion but based on nationality. Neither Egypt, Israel or say Iran make the eligible e-visa list for tourism for KSA. And i fact, there was no tourism just a few years ago for almost all pf these countries in Saudi Arabia.

Because nothing is binary: i was born in Iran, don’t like the regime, and in fact think Iran and Israel should be natural allies as two non-Arabic state. That said I have no doubt that Tehran did what it had to do in April. It was bound to happen. In fact Bibi was counting on it. Though he keeps having a hard time dragging US into war with Iran. This is an investment forum where people pride themselves with Mungerism and being able to see two things at the same time. Yet when it comes to geopolitics everyone turns binary. I don’t get it.

What you need to ask ourkid (instead of name calling) or asking for the moderator to intervene, is what evidence he has that genocide is being committed. here are some pointers since folks are excited about polarizing the thread again: 1) large number of people dying in a war is not indicative of genocide. It is a tragedy on a biblical proportion, but not a systematic genocide. See #4 2) war crime and genocide are not the same thing. You can commit war crimes but not genocide. The reverse is harder to do … 3) what is the legal definition of genocide. Does Israel’ 30+ years of action meets it ? How about Hamas action toward Israel ? How about Iran and/or other …. Focus on actions not words. 4) that said ….no genocide today doesn’t mean NO genocide tomorrow. Nothing is binary.

@mcliu With respect, if I were to make a list of all the dumb comments coming from the pro-Bibi camp here (some who cannot even point Israel on a map, yet seem to have an opinion) it will be a very long book. how about not name calling or branding …. Just because you disagree you know as well as I do that @ourkid8 is not a Hamas supporter. Disagreeing with Israel is not being pro-Hamas. Just as agreeing with Bibi doesn’t mean that you a racist genocidal fuck that wants to exterminate the Palestinians.

We already have a polarized media and social media. Can we please keep the extreme points views from both sides out of this thread. It is astonishing to me that we are not allowed to have a thread about US election and interviews (they get deleted), but we have one here … If you have a set-in-stone view that one side is totally correct is whatever they say, something is wrong with you. Specially if you never been outside North America and the Western world. This is not a football game that you need “flock” to one side, and waive a banner and memorize and repeat “talking points” please use X/Twitter

I am surprise this was not posted.

This is a good episode on the conflict. Both analysts (Suzanne and Karim) are great and on the ball in my view in their understanding of Tehran. https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/carnegie-connects/id1568315057?i=1000673466165

Yes. I dug this out from David Hoffman’ Dead Hand. Some additional details on SS20 “Pioneer”. It was after all the Soviet military complex with its massive inertia and desire to keep the factories humming that came up with this unwanted product that ultimately created a problem for the gentlemen sitting in the Kremlin.

yeah. I thought it was highly pertinent as it was a business audience. But also nothing particularly new.

I don’t go often to NYC, but the two times in the past 15 years or so, that I was in NYC, I was passed by the JP Morgan library. I would highly recommend. Below are not my picture. I just took these from the net. Gives an idea. It is not huge, but just the Red Room makes it totally worth it.

I want to get myself a Lego set of this Dark Eagle for Christmas.

done

In Q4 of 2016, Prem Watsa and team sold off their bond portfolio and shorten its duration. That was around the election of President Trump. Today, the bond portfolio is already short (shorter than 4 anyways), the hedges are already off. And the size of the overall business is just bigger than 2016. Do you believe that there is an event-driven trade with the U.S. election this time around that FFH has up his sleeve. ref: 2016 investor letter

Masayoshi Son invested less than $100 million into a growing, foreign country during the dying days of Deng Xiapoing era. At some point it was worth $200 billion, and I think he sold in various transactions at somewhere around $70 billion, half century later. There were many reasons for the Japanese investor to liquidate his position anytime over 20 years as an investor in emerging market. Tons. Looks easy in hindsight.