Red Lion

Sold some NTDOY to continue to raise capital for some private real estate deals I’m shifting into. Still have a big position in my 401k.

I'm sure they will repurpose these, but they're renting out at the low end for about $5000-$6000 a month whereas the long term rental rates are closer to $3000 for a 2 bedroom. I doubt they will be making serious price concessions on the short term rentals, because most likely the insurance companies will foot the bills. But the question becomes whether it makes sense to put someone up for 2 years in a short term rental. It probably does because there's no where else to find housing for everyone.

Does anyone have an investment position in this? Or a derivative type play like real estate? I feel like one play here is to just buy "affordable" housing on maui. There will be a huge demand for rentals as these fire victims move out of their short term hotel accommodations. There's already an extremely tight rental market and very favorable property tax regime for long term rentals. Insurance companies should be paying to house victims during the rebuild. And the rebuild is going to soak up all the available contractors/labor on the market. It was already incredibly difficult to build more affordable options in Maui because all the skilled workforce is working on mega mansions. Obviously there will also be a lot of people getting cash payouts from their insurance, and those will likely buy up the little remaining housing stock on the island. I've always wanted to own real estate on Maui, but I've got to say the setup in terms of supply/demand seems extremely favorable right now even though prices are quite high. I'm seeing condos in Kihei that looks like you should be able to do about a 4.5% CAP rate with a property manager in place (long term rentals), and that's based on pre-fire rents which most likely see some significant upside particularly since insurance companies should be on the hook. If I can buy something at a 4.5% CAP rate in one of the most desirable locations in the world with huge barriers to building new supply, and some short term tailwinds in terms of NOI upside potential, I'm all over that.

Pcg is using this technology extensively going so far as to stop trimming trees In a recent press release.

Agreed. But I think it’s going to get crucified at jury trial on negligence based on the conscious decision not to harden their infrastructure or de energize in these conditions. If bankruptcy doesn’t come first. The damages are going to be over $12 billion minimum if negligence is established and there’s no way the stockholders recover anything from there I wouldn’t think. And victims probably get 30-45 cents on the dollar. Hawaii doesn’t have inverse condemnation, but it’s not necessary if plaintiffs can establish negligence. And an electric company has a heightened standard of care due to the inherently dangerous nature of their business. Oregon doesn’t have ic either, and yet the utility just lost at jury trial with punitive damages even.

EPD, PM, GNL preferreds. Still bullish particularly on PM, but I’m continuing to raise more liquidity for a couple real estate projects, and these were sitting at under a 10% short term gain.

I don't know anything other than what I read in the press release. "each share of Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock will automatically convert into a variable number of shares of common stock on or around July 31, 2026 (subject to postponement for certain market disruption events). The conversion rates, dividend rate and the other terms of the Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock will be determined at the time of pricing." https://ir.apollo.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/463/apollo-to-offer-series-a-mandatory-convertible-preferred So I'm reading this that we don't the actual conversion rates and other terms until the preferred stock is priced, but I'm HOPING they are doing this with variable number of common shares depending on purchase price so that this is less dilutive to APO shareholders if the share price is substantially higher on July 31, 2026 than it is when the preferred is priced. Won't really be able to analyze this until the numbers come out, but I know they're actively buying back APO stock and retiring shares, so it's not surprising to me that they're looking for another type of equity security to issue to reduce the dilution so I hope that's what's happening.

APO. I cleared up space in my 401k account to load up which takes me up to about 10% more than OWL for my biggest position. This buy was bigger than my recent sale in the taxable account, so at least my APO position is larger than ever. Also doubled my Nintendo position by buying ntdoy inside 401k. I can’t trade overseas shares currently since that account is at Schwab.

They’re actually close to the same value, or at least the same cost, but I have separate finances from my wife and we bought the home together so I only own 50% of the primary residence. Also the investment property has a second parcel. So that’s why I have so much more tied up in the investment, hoping to do a cash out refi and get a good chunk of my capital back after finishing renovations.

Well I’ve moved my portfolio around a lot this year with a big slug invested in stocks and real estate, and I’m now fully invested. Closely held corp shares - 46% Stocks - 20% Personal residence at cost free and clear - 10% Investment property at cost free and clear - 24% Stocks are basically all sitting on significant short term gains as I cycled through most of my long term gains except APO to raise funds for this most recent real estate deal. Currently my stocks are as follow OWL - 14%, cost basis $10.21 just started recently APO - 11%, cost basis 56.26 with about half long term gains and half short term. GOOGL - 7% cost basis 93.29 from the chat gpt sell off. GOOGL $75 leaps - 3%, these have doubled since I bought them in November. PM - 9.5% - cost basis low 90s from just a couple months back EPD - 9% - cost basis is just below current price from a couple months back JOE -7% - cost basis $35.60 from last year FRFHF -6% cost basis $498 from October and November. ARES 6% - cost basis 68 short term NTDOY - 6% cost basis $9.47 BX - 4% BUR - 3% cost basis $7.69 From October The balance of the portfolio is preferred stock of VNO/GNL/RITM/AGNC all on 20-30% short term gains and a small position in FG at >50% short term gain. Overall I think my private investment is likely to have another great year so I feel good with 46% allocation. Between stocks and my private investment that puts me to 66% in equity and 34% real estate.

The funny thing is climate change should be bullish for insurance in the long term since it implies much larger risks and higher premiums which means more float and hopefully underwriting profit.

I’ve looked at this a bunch and written several puts on this at points of pessimism but never got exercised. I think it’s a great reit, and historically trades at I think a well deserved premium. But it’s never traded to the point I’ve been compelled to open a position. Every time it approaches a buy I seem to have better opportunities. I feel like this is pretty attractive from here and likely to do high single to low double digits IRR for the medium term wirh a lot of irreplaceable cash flow assets with pricing power. I have higher conviction ideas, but like I mentioned I’ve made some money writing puts on this name before.

I closed on an investment property which has now taken me to fully invested and looking to raise financing. This property has several buildings in need of significant repairs, so that’s the next step is to get permits and complete repairs. Then I can finalize my strategy for the long term. This investment has the potential to do quite nicely as a flip, but I’m still evaluating all of my options as I would prefer to hold long term if it pencils out. There are two parcels so there might be the possibility to sell one and keep the other with all the buildings.

Even if you didn’t trust them you could probably even do irrevocable trusts. Lot of work for $20k, but not if you plan to do this for decades.

I herniated a disc and went through 6 months of pt before insurance kicked me off. The pt told me I could start lifting weights again, but to avoid working out in the low rep/high weight ranges like I always have before. So I started with the bare bar and I’m adding weight every session with 3 sets of 10 reps. I’m embarrassed by how little weight I’m moving, but maybe this is for the best. One good reason to lift weights in the garage, I hate the gym. Doing back squat, Romanian deadlift, bench press, standing overhead press, and pull-ups (sad to say I’m nowhere close to being able to 10 reps, but that’s my goal by sometime later this year.) The great thing about being out of shape are the easy gains. And at least I’m not trying to lose any weight, so in a month or two when the workouts get really tough, I’m going to be eating like a python.

I use a pellet smoker daily from probably April to October. I use pit boss brand. They hired the founder of traeger to consult with them after traeger finally went off patent protection. Plus they’re based in Alberta.

Sold Vno.m in my 401k. Going to let it ride in taxable account.

I've been thinking of letting go in my retirement account. I was fortunate enough to build a pretty big position with a cost basis just under $12 not very long ago at all, sometimes we get lucky on timing. But now I'm waiting around for 10 months until I have a long term gain.

In a vacuum I still would maintain equal weight, this was mostly a tax decision and also a risk management play on interest rate sensitivity. I have some shares of KKR at big long term gains but most of them were close to the current price without much short term gains like I had with BX/APO. I plan to buyback all these securities but honestly KKR is the first on my list. I still see this as a $100 stock on the other side of this business cycle. Since I’m putting 40% of my net worth into this land deal my interest rate sensitivity is dramatically increasing. APO/BX are probably a bit more resilient to higher interest rates.

I will post more details after I close, but this is a value add property. Two of parcels, one decrepit old farmhouse with a full daylight basement and structure in good condition, this is going to get completely redone with roof, plumbing, electrical, stucco, new kitchen, add a bathroom and finish the basement to turn the main home into a 3/2. There are other buildings on the property that I think add significant value if put to their highest and best use either as rentals (machine shop, barn, guest house, and covered equipment or boat parking). There’s also over 30 acres of prime grade 1 farm soils and an ag well which give the potential for ag rental income or possibly even an ag business like an orchard or vineyard. Due to the current condition of the property it’s going to be tough to impossible to get a normal mortgage and insurance until I do the renovations on the home and barn. I wanted to make an attractive offer as there were several others, so I’m buying it all cash trying to refinance after renovations. Including my project budget, this is going to be about 40% of my net worth and I already have a lot tied up in a closely held corporation. I’m hoping to buy these positions back after pulling cash out (or flipping one or both parcels) if the prices don’t run away on me.

Sold 1/3 of everything in my stock portfolio today to raise cash for a private real estate transaction. These aren't my least favorite holdings or anything of the sort, but I was trying to avoid short term gains as much as possible. I ended up selling my entire positions in BN/BRKB/KKR/ALX/BTI/SU/MQG. I think they all have upside, I hate to see them go, and hopefully I'm able to get my cash back out of this deal and buy back in later. I also trimmed but kept most of my positions in APO/BX. Also sold all my T-bills except the one maturing tomorrow.

I’ve got about 35% in T bills, but just entered into contract on a real estate deal that’s going to take all of that cash, and put me up to 33% margin at least until I’m able to do a cash out refinance. Will be looking for things to sell in my portfolio since I’m feeling a bit over my skis, but should have enough unencumbered real estate to refinance with a mortgage(s).

Sold some things today I wish I didn't have to, but I'm raising money for a large private real estate transaction by selling things that are non-marginable where I have a loss or not a terribly large gain. So I let CLPR go in its entirety, I believe in this name, but so far I haven't managed to harvest anything from it other than some short term tax losses. I still think this is good value, but this is one of my few loss positions and non-marginable, so it had to go. Century lithium a small legacy position I let go at a loss. And CI options I sold for a moderate short term profit (offset by CLPR anyway).

Opened a starter position in Macquarie Group, MQG.

Sounds like my sunny home state.