Red Lion

I think this is unlikely since Buffett is now seeing that huge wildfire litigation risk is not a California only phenomenon. BHE is taking it in the shorts in Oregon and the only states electing utility friendly tort reform are relatively minuscule markets.

I'd agree with this, but the interest rate risk goes both ways. If we enter a deep bear market, odds are pretty good that interest rates end up going down at the same time stock prices do, and that works out to a large short term gain on the long term bonds. I agree with most of what you're saying, but I think there's just as much risk to the downside on long term rates as to the upside, and since these are liquid instruments they could certainly make sense as part of an asset allocation strategy that hops between stocks and bonds either opportunistically or intrinsically (like a 60/40 strategy that gets reallocated). For the record, I don't own any long term bonds, and I do have a chunk in T-bills (mostly just for cash reserves and private investments I plan to make over the next few years). My investments are in real estate/a closely held business/stocks, and I also think 30 year mortgages (of which I have 3) are a good hedge against a weakening dollar. I just think there could be a very good reason to have 30-40% in long term treasuries if you're a better macro trader than me. It's worked out great in many market collapses of the past.

I agree with this. I don’t discount his views because of his age, but because of his unwavering belief that he has all the answers notwithstanding a pretty sore track record of doom and gloom and appeals to authorities with poor track records. I do think that like many of the rest of us, a few more years of getting it wrong will likely help Blake see both sides.

Both of these responses are completely devoid of context. The absolute self confidence that anyone with an opposing viewpoint is wrong and an idiot is very much a hallmark of youth.

23 with all the answers for thee and me

Agreed on these points but I’d still pick Hawaii. The beaches are amazing and tropical jungle experience is equally fascinating. If you’re staying all summer you can spend a few weeks on Oahu, Hawaii, Maui, and Kauai. You’ll definitely spend some more money, but I feel like it would be a much more memorable trip especially if you’re not likely to do it again in the future.

I feel like this is a super interesting chart, and it makes sense since I think both are considered as real asset inflation hedges. Personally I think real estate makes more sense in the long term for a variety of reasons (tax advantages, hopeful cash flow if held for investment, the ability to use it for collateral for long term loans. Certainly not nearly as good as gold if you're on the run, there's insecure rule of law, unreasonable exposure to civil judgments, etc. I notice a correlation between low levels of real estate vs. gold at times when interest rates were rising /inflation and when they were falling / deflation (GFC). It feels like gold really shines during times of uncertainty, but then often posts lackluster results for long stretches of time. I know if I had a huge percent in gold I'd be looking to buy properties with it, but I've already got a bunch of properties and not much gold, since I guess I'm a house/land bug not a goldbug.

But he's worried about real estate crashing 60%.

I feel like it has everything to do with your post, but I'm not going to quibble about it. Back to your post, do you feel that erecting a statue to a traitor that lost a war is not encompassed by the first amendment? But presumably it's OK to erect a statue to a traitor that won their war (e.g. George Washington)? If their removal isn't erasing history and culture, what is it?

So are we going to exhume 150 years of war hero’s from Arlington cemetery and give the land back to general Lee’s descendants then?

But at least we can buy the JOE stock.

I'm going to display my stupidity here, because I haven't pulled the trigger on an HSA. I think my current health plan is not a high deductible plan as defined by the IRS, I could probably look into switching that if the numbers penciled out. You can contribute about $8500 per year for a family, treated sort of like an IRA. Then you can take the money out to use it for allowed expenses as needed or let it ride until you're 65 and then withdraw it with similar tax treatment to an IRA? There's no RMD. You can self direct investments. Am I missing something? Seems like something I definitely want to consider, but I'd definitely need a different insurance policy. It seems like unless my premiums are significantly lower then I would give up most of the benefits by paying a higher family deductible.

Up 9.5% YTD. Feels like I should take some profits, but I'm pretty happy with my current portfolio composition. I will probably continue to trade some short term OTM covered calls around some of my core positions. Trying to build up my NVO position which is still pretty small relative to my top 6 holdings.

Wouldn’t make that much difference with the deficit, but it would fully pay to extend tax cuts right?

NVO

+1

Impressive. I’m up around 3% and happy with that since it feels hard fought.

I feel like another outcome could be that the narrative shifts to a tax deal and the markets keep rallying. Not that I’m pro tariff, but I just think the markets make a big deal sometimes and then have a short attention span.

Could you expound on this statement? What leftist stances are you referring to? No tax on tips? Not slashing medicare or social security in the budget negotiations for the tax bill?

Fair enough. Crazy times we live in. I feel like unilaterally reducing interest rate on a contract would be a government taking. Whereas printing money would be in the domain of congress. But I’m not a law professor, and really out of my ability to guess too.

With congress actually.

Why would they do this instead of just printing money?

I doubt I would have listened. I feel like Iearning by our own mistakes is natural.

Bought a starter in NVO.

Congratulations on early retirement! Hopefully you get some nice travel in before you start the next chapter.