Red Lion

More OWL. Now my largest position by invested capital at least, GOOGL stock and options might be worth more at current market. I’ve been doing a lot of thought about position sizing, perhaps increasing max position sizes. Otherwise I’m probably at my limit.

Added OWL under $10.

I can’t remember if I heard this somewhere or came up with it, sounds too smart for one of my originals though.

Thanks to the cell phone. I believe this is mostly attributable to the end of the gang controlled street corner drug sales markets in every major city. Street corners were disrupted by burner phones in a big way. Or just everyday personal cell phones.

I think this is easy to train around for an actual legal application since you can simply require that AI use rule statements only from shephardized cases. Or come up with a better way to do the same thing.

Professional experience as a somewhat related field. It’s not just price increases it’s forcing them to insure against wildfire risks and not pull coverage.

Thankfully I got a State Farm policy just a couple months ago. I can say, State Farm is the absolute best if your house burns in a wildfire, but it looks like we might all be stuck on California (un)FAIR plan.

There comes a point where I would rather not participate in lending my shares for 0.5% or less to someone taking the other side of the transaction.

Thank you all very much for the good recommendations, I'm going to find some time to figure out how to make a custom report. I like to keep this information handy enough so that I can try to make tax forecasting decisions and look at possible tax loss harvesting. I figured out what I needed today, it just took me about 45 minutes, and switching from my phone to my laptop. Kind of crazy they can't just include this with the 7 million other buttons and options and ESG reports popups etc.

Started new positions in EPD and SU. These are both about half of my current full size position, but larger than my normal starter positions because I know I'm going to have an extra K1 to deal with at tax time, and I'm honestly trying to put some money to work. These are both names that have been in my periphery for years, but I haven't quite pulled the trigger. At this point I have a lot of exposure to alternative asset managers, real estate, a big GOOGL position, and large T-bill position. Counting just my liquid net worth in taxable accounts, even after my recent purchases I'm still sitting on 40% cash and T-bills. Ultimately I think I'm going to need to increase my position sizing, and revisit the issue of concentrating my portfolio more. Edit Also added to PM in my taxable account. This is my largest holding in 401k.

I'll just put my head down and take it, figure out how to run a custom report, and call it a day. Honestly I switched mostly because I wanted access to cheaper margin rates, but I'm not currently using margin, and just wanted optionality to make a cash real estate purchase if something came up where I needed some reasonably priced bridge funding.

I switched over to interactive brokers a couple months ago, and am overall pleased with the move, but there are a few things that are driving me a little crazy. Maybe I just don't know how to use this correctly, maybe someone has a workaround. I'm looking for an easy way to look at my YTD dividends/interest/st/lt realized gains. It seems like the only way to get this is to run an activity report for the YTD and then parse the relevant information. There has to be a simpler way to view this information. These are all pretty standard and easily accessible with Schwab and other brokerages, so I'm sure I'm just a luddite that can't figure it out. Another annoying thing, I have some TIPS with market value that regularly but not all the time get misreported on the mobile app which throws off the daily P&L figures. Also, I've got to say, I looked at the amount of interest I've been making on stock lent out by IKBR, and it's negligible. I'm going to try to opt out.

And here I just bought a small farm and chickens. Bad timing as always.

Bought some GNL preferred shares and an ALX tracker position.

VNO.M This time in the taxable account since there’s no room in the 401k.

I’m just getting comfortable with this position now, and now researching ALX as well per Dinar’s request. I had some nice busted preferred trades coming out of the GFC, and maybe I’m just a little bit of a closet yield pig after all. I started building a position in the M, which was the cheapest when I started buying, but I need to setup a spreadsheet to find which one is cheapest. I honestly tend to prefer discount to liquidation preference over yield, but that may just be internal bias.

Curious on your thoughts on this vs Vno preferred? I’ve been buying some vno preferred in my retirement account, and thinking of making it a larger position. With the yield plus narrowing of discount to par there seems like a pretty good case for mid teens returns with less downside risk than the common.

I think this is a much more concise summary of the situation. if fee paying AUM continues to grow, these businesses will increase in value. So if you're buying them at a reasonable multiple of FRE you will make good returns. They won't continue to grow their FPAUM with a loss of reputation. BAM, BX, KKR, APO, ARES, and OWL clearly still have a fine reputation with LP clients, they're all raising more and more money even as previously invested capital might struggle with valuation marks. The media reports BX's redemptions with BREIT ad nauseum yet BX is raising boatloads of capital in real estate and everything else. The realization/carried interest is really just icing on the cake here, and that's more impacted by whether marks are low or high in the short term.

I can see 100% legitimate concerns with reporting as well. But this basket that I’ve mentioned trades at below the s&p multiple, has a core high roic asset management business model, undervalued on the basis of valuable asset light Fee related earnings. The basket is still raising aum at a rapid pace which is the key growth metric to watch. But a nice mix between PE/infrastructure/private credit/insurance solutions to not make a huge binary bet on interest rates. Also, BX and/or APO have a good shot at s&p inclusion. I’ve been considering increasing my allocation to the sector which is already my largest stock investment, but I think I will continue to proceed with the above basket as long as fundraising continues at attractive rates and continue to add to relatively undervalued names. APO has been outperforming in the markets but still undervalued compared to most peers. KKR still fundraising at healthy rates not withstanding obvious headwinds with the interest rate backdrop selling at cheap valuation. Cheaper than BN I suspect but most of the balance sheet in private investments. OWL growing like fire in a subsector (direct lending) that could benefit from banking dislocation, is asset light and trading at 5.5% current yield growing rapidly along with FRE which is following rapid fundraising and matching the margins of much larger competitors. BN super cheap, but mostly on SOTP with a bunch of questionable assets some of which are publicly traded with low float and high valuations. BAM/ARES great businesses with premium valuations to the rest of the sector. Ares premium seems more justified to me of the two. Having a basket does balance out the risks to some degree (going all in on CG for example) but also provides broad exposure to a high margin asset management subsector that is currently not represented whatsoever in the s&p.

TIPS have to be considered as an alternative at this point I think. Just checking the yields right now, and it looks like you can get about 1.3-1.6% real yield on 5-30 year TIPS. If you want to just ladder these for the long term, I think adding long duration recently issued TIPS makes a lot of sense. If rates go back down you're going to make money on this trade as the real yield drops even if inflation is cooling off at the same time, but fundamentally if you're thinking of holding to maturity, this is a little but superior to I bonds paying 0.9. I'm also thinking of allocating some T-bill cash towards short duration TIPS.

Bought a little BN at $30.49 to top up my position to roughly equal weight with kkr/apo/bx/owl.

Completely agreed, and I'm fortunate to be in private practice not in a billable hour purgatory, although we do of course track billable hours for attorney's fees motions and so on. In my practice I've just been using the sample template and editing it. Very much paralegal level stuff, but in a relatively small practice it has actually significantly improved productivity by removing that bottleneck. I would imagine that Clio, case text, west law, or lexis ends up licensing the Chat GPT or other AI service to offer a really good subscription model service. Not saying it's on the market now, but I'm going to be surprised if it's not on the market pretty quickly. I see case text is already offering something, I have a buddy that signed up but I haven't heard the review yet. I'm quite curious how this progresses.

In my practice I’ve found that even chat gpt 4 produces fantastic templates for all sorts of things (demand letters, complaints, mediation briefs, etc) with completely unreliable legal arguments and/or fake case law to support its positions. I still find this incredibly helpful. But how much of a leap does it take to get chat gpt 4 to shephardize cases and troll public records to make actual valid legal arguments and cite persuasive authority? Chat gpt 4 writes pretty good discovery requests, good templates for almost anything, I think the missing link is incorporating legal research tools that already exist. I don’t think this will make lawyers irrelevant, but it should disrupt the industry. If I had to guess AI will be beneficial for partners/owners/higher performing senior attorneys. Combined with an oversupply of under qualified young attorneys, I feel like the prospects for new lawyers drowning in debt are especially bleak, but there will still be those that use these AI tools to start off scrappy with low overhead and do just fine in private practice.

100%. I’ve gotten some shockingly good results from chat gpt-4 that have essentially replaced an experienced paralegal. I don’t think it’s going to be long until it can replace a lot of associate level transactional type attorney roles.

Sold some July $35 puts on BAM I bought as a hedge. Keeping a lot more of the $30 puts, but didn’t want to tie up so much on an in the money option wirh such a short duration.