Red Lion

There have got to only be a handful of 50/60 year corporate bonds right? Seems like with the tight credit spreads maybe just playing a 30 year treasury?

Are you starting your own practice?

Sounds like a great plan to me. Bizarre that there couldn’t be bipartisan support for this idea, except I’m sure KO/PEP/WMT and their ilk are lobbying both sides heavily to prevent something like this happening. If they imposed a cigarette type tax and feed the money into Medicaid that would make sense. I still don’t think SNAP benefits should be used for soda or candy (just like they can’t be used for cigarettes or alcohol).

Is food insecurity in the US really an issue of not enough money being spent? SNAP benefits are widespread at income levels well above the poverty line. Yet apparently sugary soft drinks are the #1 most purchased item.

Fairfax is my second biggest position and honestly that’s been based on the insurance operations and fixed income, with a great deal of skepticism in regard to stock picking. But it seems like their stock picking has been working these last few years. Could it be that the outperformance of “deep value”/“shitcos” have returned at long last?

Well if the 10 year yield reflects longer term fed funds rate expectations, and the consensus grow to accept we will likely get a trump Yes man in 2026, this could maybe arguably throw fuel on the lower long bond trade.

The dude abides.

Small add to CP.

The problem is she'd probably have a resoundingly good chance at winning the nomination based on the progressive skew of the primary voters. She might even beat Gavin. The general election would no doubt pan out poorly.

That was quick, rolled the GOOG 4/17 $162.50 covered to 4/25 $165 for a net credit of $2.18.

They're covered calls, but I just entered this position by getting assigned on cash secured puts that I wrote. This is mainly just to keep trading to keep myself entertained.

Sold some 4/17 $162.50 GOOG calls for a juicy premium in my tax deferred account. I'm bullish on GOOG, but I'm trying to sell short term OTM puts and calls around some more volatile positions (APO/OWL/KKR/GOOG/AMZN) to get some benefit from this high volatility time we find ourselves in. So far I'm outperforming S&P500 by about 830 basis points YTD even though I've got a heavy allocation to some more volatile stocks.

They seem to be great at sourcing materials. 90% of the critical rare earth elements or something crazy like that. Worst case scenario, maybe they make a trade

Shit I wish I was confident in any of those. I’m not confident in much of anything right now.

Has it ever occurred to you that you might be an extremely intelligent person who doesn’t understand everything? I wish I had your degree of certainty.

+1

I love these, this is actually the strategy I used to get into options trading 15 years ago. There was someone on a message board who always posted good trades like this with AAPL and he must have made a killing.

Let’s say the 20 year goes to 6% while the equity market crashes. I’d hardly call that getting fucked. Unless there’s some huge leverage involved. Shit I seem to lose more than that on my typical O&G investment including my recent foray into OXY.

That's exactly what I was thinking. I'm wrong close to half of the time even in the best of times, and these are uncertain times. Seems like Chinese ADRs have a lot of risk especially for US based investors.

You can sell the puts and then buy them back close to expiration and roll to the next strike price out, or wait until assigned and then sell a covered call. I just started this experiment right before the big selloff and rolled them once or twice before the markets plunged and I ended up getting assigned. I'm not really interested in selling calls on my subject stocks (APO/KKR/GOOG/AMZN) at these lower prices so now I'm just holding onto the stocks. I outperformed the underlying stocks by mid single digits, so I'll take it. But this strategy is actually pretty attractive just on index options right now, especially because you can use uber short duration options (as short as daily options) to maximize the time decay on the OTM puts. One note, in a vacuum it's better to sell the OTM puts than ITM calls because 100% of the option premium is going to be subject to time decay, if you want to sell OTM calls then you're looking at a higher breakeven. One strategy that another poster brought up a couple years ago, and I dabbled with, could be really effective in this market. You buy an ATM LEAP CALL and PUT on SPY for example. Then sell daily or weekly CALLS and PUTS and roll the one that's moving against you. This way you get to scalp these insane short term options premiums while being hedged against a big market move one way or the other. Although you could definitely lose money if volatility comes way down since you'd lose money on your leaps. You could mitigate this somewhat by buying ITM leaps, but then you need to put up more capital to start the trade, and still stand to lose money if volatility comes down significantly.

What if china decides to cancel us held shares as part of a trade war?

Now one can stop mailing shower heads to another state for remodels? Asking for a friend.

Devil's advocate: 1) What if this was the plan all along to push china into the corner? 2) What if no one else wants to do retaliatory tariffs and lets our 10% tariff stand just because they know Trump is loco?

Other producers of critical rare earth elements, etc. come to mind. I wish I had some actionable ideas to recommend.

It sure feels like that, while scaring our allies into submission?