Red Lion

Agreed on the dip from politics. I think maybe he needs to smoke another joint, and go create a functional Optimus prime robot. Thanks for bringing this up, I'm not a MAGA supporter, and I even reluctantly voted for Biden in 2020 and came to regret my decision. But literally this is the lie that Biden based his entire campaign on. The reason he "decided to run" and I still hear people today talk about how Trump called the Nazi's "fine people". Completely agree with you on this point. He always says the most absurd things, and some people can't seem to get over it. I think this is his rhetorical style, and I certainly don't take it seriously anymore. I think he did OK his first time in office on MANY issues, the whole January 6 debacle and undermining the election results were the rock bottom. By the end of the Biden administration I was definitely seeing Trump as the lesser of two evils. I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt. Fair point.

Well it seems like everything is now spun by the "LEFT" and the "RIGHT". I don't even know how everyone finds themselves on the same page on every political issue. For example, the typical progressive of 2025 (following my progressive social media friends) apparently believes that Elon Musk was dropped on his head one too many times, but nevertheless because of his dad's emeralds and slave labor, and stealing IP from poor inventor's he has seen wild success. These same progressives were driving Tesla's mocking conspiracy theorists 2-3 years ago. So it doesn't need to be spun. But it will, one way or the other. Trump could bring world peace, and lasting economic success, and he would still be the next Adolph Hitler to 35% of the country. Same with Kamala or Joe Biden with another 35%.

If this cease-fire actually takes hold, how will this be spun against the Trump administration? It should have been a better deal for Ukraine? I'm not MAGA, but I do believe in giving him the benefit of the doubt. Hopefully it works out.

Redding in n out is the best one I’ve ever been to. Consistently. I had no idea this is where she had her first job and am quite surprised.

If you tossed cannabis and highly processed food in the mix this would probably have significant budget and public health benefits as well.

Is this such a bad idea? I hate the way it’s getting rolled out, but is the underlying theory flawed? Especially when we are running a 7% deficit, no one wants to cut social security, Medicare, or military spending. And the top 25% already pays about 90% of federal income tax and the majority of consumer spending.

Started a position in RTO, been watching the discussion here for a few months and decided this would be a good place to start.

I bought back all the APO shares I sold between $160-$175, added a few more for good measure. This is in tax deferred account.

That's a really interesting idea. Is it owner occupied or vacant? You could maybe work something out to lease the property until closing so they also get some rental revenue while they wait to close.

Very good point and no arguments here, clear double standard.

I was going to mention the only way I’d put a third of my net worth in a house would be a sweet view. I’m more partial to ocean than city, and a decent ocean front house in California is way out of my price range, so I’ve got a long way to go.

I just wrote a great response and somehow lost it. So a quicker and dirtier response: 1) There's always been a latent racist/nationalistic/anti-immigrant group in America. 2) Yet more women and minorities voted for Trump in 2024 than in 2016 or 2020. 3) This is an issue of the Democrats moving to the (minority) progressive persuasion of their party even though the American people can't stand it 4) The middle moves elections, not the entrenched voters on both sides, and the Democrats of the last few years have moved so far out of line with the American people that they held their nose and voted for Donald Trump. 5) I bet John Fetterman would have won. Not because he's a white, working class man's man (although I'm sure some voters would love that), but because he's a centrist 6) All great Democrat presidents (except perhaps FDR) have been centrists.

You just summed up why Donald Trump got re-elected.

I respect that, fair enough. Hopefully things resolve in a less severe downturn than you predict. That's my view.

@SharperDingaan What sort of employment numbers are you expecting, and by when? I might be interested in a friendly wager.

I can see selling off the portfolio and buying back in. Markets are headed down and things are overvalued anyways, probably as good a shot as any at timing a downturn like this. But I think massive unemployment in the USA is a pipe dream, do yiu mean in Canada? We already have a labor shortage. Tariffs may be a short term bluff, but significant deportations seem far more likely, and the flow of migrants (low end workforce) has already slowed to a standstill. Then we have a great wave of retirements beginning, and an upcoming younger Covid generation that is working far less than previous generations.

The flip side to that is that the administration is trying to drop spending by around $1 trillion with the DOGE cuts, and they are hoping that tax receipts increase with greater GDP growth. I'm not saying I agree that either of these are going to materialize, but I hope they do, and think it's possible that the administration makes progress on both fronts.

That's right, I'm referring to the second type, although some of those "portfolio loans" do take into account the value of an investment portfolio as well.

I’m going to send you a dm with a lender I’ve worked with who handles debt service coverage ratio loans and other non conforming portfolio loans. Could need worth a shot.

I can’t speak with any intelligence as to the prospects of MSTR or your portfolio, but a mortgage is great because it lets you borrow a much higher % of your portfolio value with no margin call risk. So it seems to have less opportunity cost than either using margin or selling undervalued shares in my way of thinking.

Can you qualify to get a mortgage with 5% down and then refinance/pay it off down the road?

About 15% here. I’d do 33% but it would really need to be a dream home I think. Sounds like it is for you. Go for it. Especially if you can leverage it.

Trump could have taken preferred stock warrants instead.

I’ve been trying to give the new administration the benefit of the doubt, but what a shameful spectacle this was. It feels like this whole thing is orchestrated to get Zelenskyy to crawl back on hands and knees to beg for a deal. Even though there was already one in the bag. Art of the deal indeed.

How about hedge with US real estate exposure as this scenario you describe will do nothing but increase construction costs. If your worst case 25% scenario occurs I’m sure Canada won’t be the only trade war going on, and this likely brings about the recession that the fed needs to drop rates. Plus we have financial engineering in the offing to manipulate the 10 year lower as well. assuming these tariffs never occur or they only occur for a short period of time before a new trade deal, US residential real estate still likely to continue to do well as labor continues to be a huge issue regardless of tariffs and we have a big housing shortage south of the border. If Canadian dollar plummets on a 25% tariff I for one will consider loading up since I don’t think there’s going to be 25% tariffs on Canada for longer than a couple months tops, but I don’t want to risk a 30 day ban expounding any more than that. It just doesn’t make sense to slap a punitive tariff on one of our greatest allies and trading partners.