Castanza

That's when they call the guy who's been retired for 10 years and offer him a sweet sweet incentive to come back for a year.

Everyone worships something or someone ...

Is it surprising? People in power are either weird af or their spouses are weird af.

The US not only used billions in assets but they also lost billions in assets as well. How many bases have we lost? Deplete the stockpile and lost sr significant air assets. The uranium is still there and pretty much unrecoverable. Some argue Iran is more incentivized to build a nuke now, but I think that is neither here nor there. It’s debatable the Iranian people even have the means to overthrow their govt. Trump did accomplish a quasi regime removal, but the change part is to be seen. He did reduce any risk that Iran posed but at the same time left the door open for economic punishment while also running up our bill. The jury is out on whether the juice will be worth the squeeze. Trump has already positions Hegseth to be the fall guy. “This is Hegseth’s war.” He said yesterday.

Borderline impossible unless you invade with a massive force. Going to have to be diplomacy.

Not following you

I'm not disagreeing with you on any of this. I'm simply saying who tf cares what Trump said last year about the destruction of nuclear material. Even if we knew 100% for certain what happened in the past with that situation (truth vs lie vs new info), it wouldn't change anyone's perspective on Trumps credibility moving forward for any and all future decisions. That started long before Trump....The war is unconstitutional from the get go so the lack of trust runs much deeper than POTUS imo. The difference between Trump and many of the past presidents is that Trump is a terrible liar....

I'm not defending Trump here, but the continued harping on this point is getting old. Perhaps last year US intelligence thought all the Uranium assets were destroyed and perhaps this year intelligence discovered it was not. I mean, there is constant covert operations in these countries by US, Israeli and MI6 resources. The public is and has always been on a need to know basis. Trump may be a a serial liar; but that doesn't mean he can't actually pivot if new info comes to light. Again, not defending the situation or Trump....just saying the real world is extremely complex...Some on here act like the Iranian regime is a bunch of goodie goodies that are 100% transparent with international authorities and comply with all standards and policies for nuclear development....that's ridiculous to believe....I think there is a good chance some shit was hidden or recovered after the first attack and western intelligence discovered this later on.

U.S. Military and budget: "I feel thin, sort of stretched, like butter scraped over too much bread"

I’m curious how they plan to extract the enriched uranium. Apparently those containers are 400kg minimum and highly pressurized. I mean I guess CAG captured the Venezuela president without incident but this seems like an additional logistic nightmare with a lot more containment issues to worry about. Something tells me we are about to see some American fatalities and massive political backlash. Hope I’m wrong.

I remember a few on here post liberation day saying “Shelves will be empty in three months”

LOL you’ve yet to even explain yourself once in any type of detail. So far you just sound like my barber. This is an investment forum no? If you’re going to make extraordinary once in 100 year claims then at least entertain the other board members and give us a detailed thesis…

This confidence reminds me of someone you criticize daily Please tell us how you can forecast the “big one” and how you can call the bottom for when we should all take advantage of this “generational opportunity.” Because you’ve been on here 2-3 years now and the only assets you discuss are OXY and T-Bills. You’re unwilling to pull the trigger in minor market drawdowns so what’s your “signal” for buying during this massive fiscal debt crisis we are about to experience?

Yeah but you’re playing defense in hopes of playing offense as an investor should. To stick with sports, you’re looking for the opening to take your shot. I’ve raised cash for this volatility and I’m sitting at close to 35% right now….but regardless of what happens politically, on the way down I will 10000% be buying stocks. If all you’re doing is playing “defense” then you’re not an investor. You’re a prepper/doomer that can read spreadsheets and sits on depreciating assets.What was Buffett doing during the 60’s and 70’s and 80’s? Deploying capital. “Buy when there is blood in the streets”

Trumps a rule breaker and frankly ignores all norms. My guess is he does something completely out there like try to seize Iranian oil and work in conjunction with the Saudis or someone to try and keep it flowing. US provides the protection and Saudis get control of the assets while the US gets some special pricing or something. Way out there obviously but it’s Trump so who tf knows. Personally I don’t understand sending the Marines in. Only half the force is infantry and occupying Kharg island physically doesn’t change much other than put a bunch of American troops at risk. As others said it would take 100k or more troops and a long runways to stage any type of invasion…. Will be interesting…

Classic spreadsheet guy imo. Probably great at breaking down balance sheets and looking at charts or 50 year macro environments but has no nuance for business and investment decisions. Like you said he will be right eventually but the opportunity cost lost is too high to overcome. It’s like listening to a sports nerd lecture you on every baseball stat out there, but when it comes time to play they’re a liability on the field. Derek Jeter, not so great on paper when stacked against other shortstops….but there isn’t a team out there that wouldn’t have wanted him in their starting lineup. I’m an A’s fan…Billy Beane was great on paper, but it never won them any World Series…

Who should we be listening to? What’s their investment track record? How should we be positioning?

Yeah and the 70s stagflation didn’t stop Sam Walton from growing Wal-mart. Didn’t stop Microsoft, Apple, Home Depot, FedEx all which were founded in the 70s. There is always a reason to bitch and moan. Pays to be an optimist!

You’re forgetting this is politics. This isn’t your brother in law having an affair in your sister and the family now disowns him forever. Look at the last 100 years and how much relationships between countries have ebb and flowed. Politics is you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours. I’m not a Trump fan and think this is the closest we’ve come to a fascist leader. But it’s one year and a four year term in total. The relationship dynamic with all these countries will shift again once he’s out of office. Quit being so dramatic about everything. It’s embarrassing. Are t-bills transferable?

It’s a massive undertaking to secure the SOH. Some former generals have already commented on it and you’re talking a huge physical force, captured islands and coast lines with physical bases permanent air and missile defense systems, extremely complex supply chain plans. It’s an absolute nightmare just to get established. One sunk Marine convoy with 1k marines in it would cause so much fallout. Then you have the cost of it, the maintenance, the failures… Absolute shit show.

LOL, when you open a ticket with the help desk you either get an Iranian drone or a Patriot missile deployment

@Blake Hampton you’re like the financial version of evangelicals that think every outbreak of violence in the Middle East is a sign of the second coming of Christ and the ushering in of the tribulation.

I’ll take an irreplaceable business with a fortress balance sheet that throws of lots of free cash flaw over holding t-bills any day any in market environment outside of a small cash position for buying opportunities. The world still has to tick…the mentality you have isn’t going to serve you well if we ever get the big one. It will just lead you to believe there is more downward pressure to come and you’ll try to perfectly time the bottom and end up sucking your thumb. If you did nothing but invest at market tops you still would do well over 30-40 years.

Israel has the Iron Beam and I believe it’s the first time it’s been deployed. Not sure how effective it has been, but I know laser systems and effectiveness are highly dependent on weather conditions.