Gregmal

Yup...remember too all the usual suspect media outlets blaming Putin and demanding more Ukraine aid? Fuckin pieces of shit as always.

Yup. Outside of the public smash and grab conmen, the bulk of the short sellers I’m aware of are more driven by being edgy and disgruntled and feeling smarter and differentiated from “everyone else”. It’s a character thing versus an “I’m gonna try to make money in the most efficient manner” thing. Which should go without saying considering right off the bat the overwhelming numbers say you’re just better off not shorting to begin with.

Todays headline: Market surges after most recent isolated data point quells recession fears raised by disgruntled Fintwit warriors bitter about not being on vacation with everyone else. Wonder what next week will bring!

Anyone got wagers on how mouthy the “stagflation” bros get tomorrow if we get a backwards looking CPI print one tenth of one percent or two above “expectations”…

Honestly if you have a semi decent professional resume, and the cash, take a meaningful position in a small cap company, attend the AGMs, network with the shareholder base, and then go from there. Bigger companies you have to be in bed with the folks already there, get on your knees for the CEO/chairman, etc...to bureaucratic IMO

To a hammer, everything is a nail. I’ve literally heard “bubble” screamed every year since 2011….

Why? Wouldnt it be more likely that overall, market participants are just realizing superior assets as such?

Alo is all the rage now

Finally got my spirits to celebrate the Hamilton Thorne buyout.

Its kinda wild seeing how much these stupid monkeys are bidding up/down the market on these single, minor data releases the last couple weeks. Folks need to take a break. Grab a Bloody Mary and hit the beach...if your year comes down to scrupulously micromanaging August jobs data then you're doing something wrong.

Yea IB is awful with this. Generally though it’s based on market cap, sector and historical volatility.

Every time the market dips 5-10% there’s this huge wave of people who have to manufacture some sort of macro reason for it. Often there’s none. It’s just the market doing market things.

Exactly, the thing is, you can start putting that trade on 20% above where you’d ideally want to put it on because 9/10 the big swing opp never arrives or by the time it does everyone’s mentally shot.

There is also the fact that most people aren’t long term enough, or mentally capable enough to realize 25-30x with a growth runway isn’t expensive, and then even those that might be, are terrified of “what might happen” NTM or whatever. If I find a great idea at 25-30x and “something bad happens” assuming my thesis was correct in the first place, I’ve got a generational idea I can back up the truck on. Why be scared of that?

It’s highly specific to individual names because of fundamental reasons but you monitor the trade based on VIX levels. Something that’s “insert discretion” reasonable valued, giving you a 35-50 VIX type premium on 10-20% OTM puts with less than 6 months duration should make money if nothing happens, or even with modest future declines, simply once VIX settles to more normalized levels. Ie like 20

Its just a regularly trite market commentary I hear and have heard forever. Nothing is cheap. Ok BF or Diego is 15x... Yea but no growth. Ok well you said high quality, not growth, He's a solid growth Co at 25-30x Oh but 25-30x is "expensive".... Ok well here's one at 20x.. Oh its got debt.... And even if all that passes, you'll get the "and we're headed for a recession and profits will get cut by xyz%"... Most people just nitpick and want the perfect investment for way less than they normally are available for and lament not being able to get them when they've never under normal circumstances been able to get them for those multiples. Nintendo is as high quality as it gets....Fairfax and BRK are both superbly positioned. I could go on and on, but theres always a catch or an issue. I just like to buy quality stuff at reasonable prices and I havent even been trying to look for investments the last few years and had no problem finding stuff.

Sure there is. Its just when we take 50 different fabricated adjustments and then claim "in a recession" XYZ will happen...sure, nothing "looks cheap". In the real world though theres plenty.

VIX over 35 is a slam dunk buy signal. Especially when the opportunity is created by some Twitter mouth breathers who are showcasing that theyre the only people on WS who are actually stuck in the office in early August. Ive never even come close to losing money shorting 10% OTM near-mid duration puts on blue chips with the VIX at those levels.

There’s always reasons to be scared and generally, most people think stocks are expensive regardless of the price. All this is really just the product of most market participants being scared of volatility and even the professionals being total slaves to the daily quotes. No one worth a damn is even paying attention to the market in July, August anyway.

The problem is what we've said all along. The Fed is clueless, and relies on backward looking stuff like CPI and derivatives. They totally misread inflation. They were clueless about how it was almost all supply chain and covid lockdown related, and even when we arguably had deflation, they look at housing being elevated without even realizes THEY were the cause of that while everything else fell apart. Powell should be put in jail, or worse. And thats independent of whatever happens with the economy. Theyre just idiots.

The banks are amazing. Nothing's really happened but in 3 days theyre like -20% LOL.

Yea I don’t get it. Like 80% of the inflation we saw was directly caused by supply chain and issues related to the government deciding to shut down the country during COVID. Close businesses, ban people from leaving their homes, give out stimulus money to compensate….none of this was anything the Fed had any business getting involved in at all. The Fed at this point is just redistributing the assets some have nots acquired during the “pandemic”.

If 5 more underperforming talking heads come to the conclusion we are headed for a "hard landing" I am going to sell all my stocks. There is just no other logical choice.

Rotating some HTL proceeds into more Nintendo and Fairfax

I also just think its the news cycle and lack of investment acumen/confidence that leads most to need to have a reason to explain every market gyration. Market had a solid few months, then it pulls back some. Sounds like the stock market being the stock market. Why waste time trying to guess everything?