Gregmal

Been adding to HTL between 1.5-1.6 CDN last week or so

You’re missing A Million Ways To Die In The West.

Sums up exactly what I’m looking for.

+1. Anyone interested in housing or real estate needs to internalize many of these points noted. It is a VERY different market dynamic than stock market investing but often gets confused as one in the same. The beauty is when stock market participants or pee on hedge funds mistake the two and then you get these wild opportunities in the public markets that you’d never get in the private market. Conversely from 2010-2018 or so the private market was much more appealing than the public. So if you know what you’re doing you just play the value angle.

RFP is interesting

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/15/biden-fist-bumps-saudi-prince-mbs-after-jamal-khashoggi-killing.html LOL, taking the headline approach apparently. Maybe he forgot what happened to Khashoggi. That was a long time ago.

VRE, JOE, EPSN adds

You'll need a lawyer for one, which is gonna be a hefty commission on the sale. So much legal stuff goes into private securities transactions. And then, yea, a platform like Forge or EZ. Its definitely not a sellers market, which is not working for you right now either.

Thanks. So it’s up substantially, and even last year was up 26%. But now a 10-15% decline equals “blowing up”. This sort of phenomenon always makes me chuckle. He would just been better off buying a house in 08, or even early last year. Signed, someone who knows nothing about Canadian real estate

What was the average Canadian house worth in 2012 or whenever Turner started his crusade?

Yea my hunch has been that we may have bottomed, especially some tech, but the scenario you describe seems commonplace and I dont want to totally ignore its probability relative to whats priced in. Guidance will matter because everything is forward looking and I think this is an easy Q for everyone to kitchen sink it. So I've still got a few hedges on mainly IWM Oct/Nov puts and some TSLA short. Either way by year end I think much of this circus is behind us, and should be get the Q2 earnings rout I will be looking to close out the remaining short stuff and go completely long into. All of this stuff, IE destruction, economic weakening, declines across the board, feed into what the Fed has said its looking for. So at some point they wash their hands, and go back to sitting on the couch with their feet up.

More PSTH

Ok so not to single you out, you're just good at engaging, but wasn't the argument originally that basically the most effected were too dumb to take advantage of the labor market? Now Ive heard several times that theyre going to conquer it? And two, why is 3-4% inflation anything to fret? People have always gotten 3% raises. So maybe those that agin have zero ambition lose a whopping 1% purchasing power? Why would the Fed go crazy on this? This is why im having a hard time buying the inflation argument. None of it really makes sense. The "kill the economy because folks have enough money to pay more for stuff" thing is illogical. And yes, if they didnt have the money to pay more, stuff wouldnt be increasing in price. Its supply and demand. The best argument Ive heard is from my father, who in terms of an investment approach makes Viking look like Bill Hwang. And its that inflation control is integral because did you know, the SECRET SERVICE tracks counterfeit currency because ultimately weakening or destabilizing of the currency is a national security issue. I agree with that. BUT....anyone seen the dollar against other currencies?

Recall we live in a world where within a 6-12 month period the majority of people thought zoom and peloton were hundred billion dollar companies of the future. Where no one would ever go to a mall again. Now this year it’s apparently cars will appreciate forever and 2x4s can’t be overproduced. I don’t know why I seem to be immune to falling for this crap, but if you remove yourself from the moment and put it back into historical context it’s really easy to see. Everything within its moment in the sun seems more important and sustainable than it really is.

And obviously supply chain clearing up. Hi Target and co. Most of those inventory issues once the demand is fixed it’s over. Once ford can get heck to normal production it’ll be impossible for have a widespread car shortage again.

Everyone public traded, with good MF assets, hears the big boy footsteps coming for them. They wake up in the middle of the night screaming “sold to Blackstone!”. Additionally Bow street already did much of the heavy lifting. CEOs previous job got taken out as well. I think it’s a good play at $12.

The big ones to me are the commodity stuff. That impacts virtually everything. Steel, lumber, I mentioned wheat. Even energy now coming in. Think about how all those things through a derivative relationship, impact things like auto, housing, food. That’s why writing was on the wall last year. Side note is it’s funny how the Fed may be focused on how expensive the shelter element of CPI is, ain’t they the ones making mortgage and rental payments more expensive? Housing gets solved by building more, same as always. When the inputs come back to earth and are readily available, so will prices. I wouldn’t expect that to result in a huge drop, but simple more and better options for homebuyers. A lot of where the bear argument falls flat for housing is seeing price cuts. 75% of the listings I see in Florida are price drops? But if you know the area you see through the shallow “housing is faltering” conclusion from people who don’t know any better, you’d see it’s because all the quality stuff is gone. Or gets listed and sold. The result is there’s a low inventory massively populated with overpriced junk, and sellers know this. A nice new build in a good community sells. A 30 year old crapper in a second rate area isn’t worth triple the precovid but that doesn’t stop people from listing it for that. The market is currently flooded with the later. Facilitating building will help with the former.

I’m driving so at quick glance your figures are in the right ballpark. NAV range is like 23-32, IMO. The key assumptions I think you have to make involve the dispositions and pace thereof. Then there’s reinvestment in idk. I’m not entirely sold on the credibility of this being a worthy long term investment. But from here into year end, as long as multifamily stays solid which it will, you’ve got a good risk reward skew. During that time you pay attention to management and see if they earn some trust. I have not really been impressed so far. They’re pretty unspectacular. I wouldn’t say bad, just nothing special.

I am currently of the belief that prices have peaked and that a combination of supply chain and production normalization plus some demand destruction accomplishes that. CPI to me is useless and not worth following. Last year was what? 4% when real world was like 15–20%. It’s all a joke and eventually even the Fed will see you can’t have everything going down and claim there’s inflation because of last years stuff. I’m fact, it’s this exact backwards looking approach that lead them to be so horribly wrong on last years “transitory” conclusion.

And…while maybe jumping the gun, for those who have followed my COVID flow of money theory, and the tell tale pump and dump looking chart that has hit virtually everything just in different phases, that 10 year chart is starting to…..

I honestly haven’t looked but isn’t core inflation stuff like car prices? Whether by slowing demand or commodity input cost reduction, hard to see how that doesn’t get straightened out. I think it already has. The numbers are y/y which I think are meaningless.

Ugh now I’m feeling much less good. Cramer macro calls almost always mean we re in for a good 2-5% drop in the relatively short order. Not that I’d let that deter me from investing but whenever he’s sure of something the only sure thing is he’s wrong.

Isnt kind of funny how obsessed people are with the CPI and "inflation running hot theme", within the context of, 1) why are you concerned with what LAST months figures looked like compared to LAST years figure in term of what it means TODAY? and 2) most of those people would have a hard time naming one or two things that have actually gone up recently! I asked one of my stock broker friends if they can name one thing, anything thats gone up in the past month and he had to sit there and think for a while before jokingly stating he cant even get his dick up in this environment. This is actually a good example of why long term investing can be so easy. EVERYONE is consumed with the topic of the month which is really kind of irrelevant to pretty much everything meaningful right now. You cant have inflation if EVERYTHING is headed south, which it currently is. I mean the action on the 10 year and even the indexes today speaks volumes. Piker head fake for the win.

I would have thought it'd be only red states doing that, trying of course to make shit worse ahead of elections.

Yup. They’re probably do one more 75, maybe another 50 hike and then it’s a job well done. Last week someone asked me why we re so laser focused on the inflation reports when they tell us what happened LAST month and I just shrugged. Anyone with eyes can see what’s happened recently on prices of just about everything. It’s funny watching the 10 year though. Recession. Inflation. Recession. Inflation! Red light. Green light. Fed light. The brokerages must love this.