Gregmal

Same chart as available homes in many markets. Much is being made of “OMG supply going up massively”….deliberately peddled by folks without mentioning it’s still well below pre COVID levels. Any idiot can build a house though. Certainly not easy getting a rig up and running.

Those are good points on the 70s. It remains to be seen if that’s likely here but so far everything’s kinda indicated it’s not. We expecting another wave of 25% run ups in used car pricing? I don’t. Once you settle the supply demand equation for most stuff, it’s hard to recreate and demand imbalance. And sure, we all move inside of two year periods with our approach. I generally target 12-18 months for stuff…but what I meant is that everything has a price we’re you say fuck it who cares. COVID it happened quickly but a half sensible person saw that 1000 points coming off the Dow for every couple hundred new cases was bullshit. Well, not everyone. There were still plenty who even after 20/30/40% said “still got a ways to go”. But to most sensible people you see something like Berkshire at $200 or $190 and say “who cares”.

Pretty much. It’s the last wave of the COVID cycle.

I actually do know that there’s certain data suggesting that violent crime in the hood, IE NYC, LA, Chicago, drastically increases in the summer. Given that these people are incapable of being accountable for anything, it’s obviously climate change and seasonal swings that are the culprit. That’s probably the angle on sex assault too. Better weather, more skimpy outfits. More skimpy outfits, more scumbags harassing women. But it’s not the scum bags fault, it’s the climate.

I don’t even think it’s what rate, but how long. Who cares if we temporarily get 5-7% treasuries if a couple years later we re back at 2-3? Maybe the Twitterers and hedge fund guys who just wanna create their own noise to trade but as we learned during COVID, a year or two of earnings is meaningless. If you say fuck the next 2 years and after that I’m buying Costco at 15x, or Microsoft at 12xc why wouldn’t you take that opportunity and run? Cuz some doomsdayer says you might incur a 20% paper loss?

It really is a systemic rouse being perpetrated on the common folks. Hook ‘em in, drum up the noise, flush em out, let the smart or wealthy folks pick up the pieces…rinse and repeat. I’m just a little peeved real world real estate hasn’t gotten cheaper. I really want a southern home. We ve had 3-5% rates before, not even terribly long ago in a historical context. Many existing companies are not only better off than they were the last time around, but have created tremendous value since. I was joking with a friend how the first time I bought a home the 10 year was at 3 and I got a 4.25 mortgage. Then a few years later we were back at 3 and it was a really big deal to some but it turned out to be a nothing burger. Here we are again and mortgage rates are near 6% and my home value is nearly double. But nevertheless there is a whole contingent of disaster callers mouthing off because 3-5% rates will be permanent and also the end of the world. Bet against those people. They’re pretty much never right.

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-bullard-idUSS0N2UR07L So weird! Maybe this is why the dumb dumbs thinking we need to price in perpetual 8% inflation don’t understand why the market may be forward looking? Well, first, the worst of the inflation is behind us and forward looking, rates will be a lot lower than one thinks. Remember in January all the predictions for 7-8% rates? Not happening.

Dude I’m not even kidding someone showed me a Twitter video of some Prime Minister legit claiming that climate change poses increased risk of sexual assault for women. Yup. These are the people driving the school bus and making policy decisions.

Shitty hospitality property sells for 98% of list price and sub 5 cap. Let’s hear more about rising rates! Obviously the stonk market knows best, just like it did during COVID and every other knee jerk panic period I’ve ever witnessed.

Is it weird when you see media publications saying inflation remains stubbornly high when literally every input minus housing has been plummeting? Even energy now? And I mean housing, the fintwit hacks all seem to be predicting GFC 2.0…. Seems like everything is pointing towards an August/September pat on the back and “we re done here” from team Biden and the Fed. Perfect timing for elections.

Fun fact in the early 1980s, amidst double digit inflation, yes much worse than the fabricated crisis we have now where people are saying omg 8%, MetLife supposedly bought their NYC office tower from Pan-Am at a 3! Cap rate!

Is there any inflation input not coming down? Oh yea, housing....everything else? right on cue. Amazing how that works.

ALCO from the golf course

Is it a celebratory day? Weekend? Week? Month? Dunno nice day though

What’s funny is I never hear people refer to the MIT blackjack team as “gamblers”. Certainly, with investing, there’s an overlap in principle and fundamental strategy.

At the end of the day some people mistake value investing for something that requires putting a multiple on cash flow. But simplistically, if you can determine that a trade has a 90% probability of a favorable outcome, that’s the same thing. You’re using math and probability to stack the deck in your favor.

Crazy isn’t it? That the overwhelming majority of WS money guys make decisions based on their interests even if they are detrimental to the interests of the people paying them?

Everything has to be put in context. Stocks or crypto can present unique, well adjusted casino like situation but with odds far better than 52/48 or whatever. If you can identify setups with 85% probability of having a positive outcome, you take it all day. Whether one wants to call it casino, gambling, investing, or anything else, who cares? Crypto is almost entirely a sentiment trade.

This will all be over once gas station owners just stop being greedy, obviously.

Totally agree. I found the investment in crypto to be one purely based on psychology and supply/demand. I slowly bought a bunch after the big crash years ago. And when I bought it had set parameters in my head that $10k was a guarantee and so was taking out the old high of $19k once the institutions piled in. Then it was up to me to see where the sky became the limit and to manage the position accordingly. It obviously did very well and typically with speculative stuff like that, I always leave something in the game as you never truly know and sometimes the 100x price target might actually happen. So I made 5-12x depending on the lots or something crazy total in a few years but liked the grander picture and said let’s keep something here. Last fall I ran into an old business partner. We had a decent gig going in our mid 20s which resulted in us pulling in like $20-30k a month with minimal effort. This dude was the type to spend $30k if he made $20k and spend $50k a month if he made $30k. He d send the IRS $5k for estimated taxes a quarter and think he was in good shape lol. Just all around a dumb dumb and irresponsible fellow. He couldn’t stop talking about how he had 17 bitcoins and had just mortgaged his house to buy more. While taking to him I thought of the Big Short scene where Carrell is at the airport and is like “there’s a bubble!”. I sold everything and don’t plan on looking back til all these dopes are doing drywall or working the registers rather than driving fancy cars and lecturing everyone on the new age of investments.

Cheers to the recession

I don’t ever buy post deal spac, but a few times I did. Of course every investor from time to time does different things, especially over the course of 70 years. Again what’s the point? There’s exceptions to every rule. Buffett also doesn’t buy tech and he bought both ibm and Apple. For the average investor playing the macro game is stupid because they’re not wired for it. They sell their stocks on COVID fears and then buy them back once the coast is clear. Shit like that. I kind of idolize David Tepper as an investor. I’d never recommend folks trying to invest like he does.

Well it would be a poor macro call that’s for sure

I came to the conclusion they did on energy a year ago when everyone was still obsessing about COVID variants. Again, what exactly are you even trying to prove? Go ahead and be mr macro if you want. To each their own lol

I made a comment about Buffetts approach, his comments on numerous occasions, and his unwavering ownership rather than frantic day trading of most of the portfolio…and you’re on a rampage to say hey he talked about macro and sometimes uses it to influence his investing. Or that Ted said so or something. Not sure where it’s all going but seems to be getting redundant. Ask Warren if it’s a good idea to hold AXP into a recession for me. Or Ted even though I never mentioned Ted.