Gregmal

Prices going down in Philly and up in Orlando is stagflation?

Brother in Philly: is this what a recession is? Cheap stocks and plummeting rents? Not renewing my existing lease and taking something nicer for $600 a month less. Sister in Orlando: so bummed. My renewal came in again. After going from $1500 to $1800 last year they offered me $1970 for 18 months. I was able to plead my case and they agreed to come down to $1910 but only for 9 months. Tale of two cities

If things were that bad with the hospitals, surely now that things have normalized they’ve begun rapidly building and expanding capacity? Showing they learned from their mistakes?

I mean just in general, let’s remember how people who didn’t wear masks were chastised even though behind the scenes any medical professional worth a damn will tell you they’re pointless….how mercilessly those folks got singled out and harassed and blamed even though it was purely out of ignorance. but here….you really kind of need to go out of your way to get this, and everyone’s just like “have some compassion!” And “let’s not go there” LOL

So not overwhelming a hospital was the reason folks were threatened with losing their jobs for now showing paperwork? Quite possibly the only thing in America that faction believe you should need to show paperwork for….

Same. More ALCO. Selling off on awful orange sales which was known back in February but only thing that matters is land sales and value which is still “robust” on the demand side, to use their words. Great payout in the meantime.

So I thought I was out, but you pulled me back in! LOL Anyway, it’s ironic because a couple months ago the rallying cry was “say gay!” In response to a bill that had nothing to do with gay. Now they are basically agreeing, don’t say gay. Cute. Anyway, it’s dumb, hypocritical, and I actually agree with Sanjeev, detrimental to the overall well-being of the gay community. One of my best, and longest tenured investors is a gay man. Not cuz I’ve made him a reasonable sized fortune with the peanuts he threw me starting off. But because he is an awesome person. He lived closeted in Russia working for a top 5 global law firm, being “the man” until he retired. His exact words to me on the subject….”Greg, my problem with this whole thing is simple. It gives gay people another black eye due to nothing but shallow stereotypes. I’ve lived with my partner for two decades. Monogamously. Depending on my location the legality of which was different. But we loved each other and were loyal to each other. And again, here we go with this stereotype, thanks to a degenerate faction of the community, which probably represents little more of our community than that guy Peterson who murdered his family represents of the straight community; that we are just horny animals engaging in non stop orgies with anything that breathes.” Is this any different than the NY Post articles about yet another colored person murdering a fast food worker over cold French fries? I assure you that the African American community is not Hamburglers with guns. But the behavior of a few continue to give ammunition to the naysayers. Stop feeding the stereotypes and we can then realize what’s real and what isn’t. Monkeypox is just the latest hoax. There IS a vaccine. And your probability of contraction, is negligible. So do we really need to be creating headlines and declaring yet another state of emergency? Especially in places like NY and CA which to my knowledge, have yet to do the same for real, actual emergencies like crime and homelessness? I don’t think so.

Some are, some aren’t. Why can Costco pay people well and trade at 40x, why does shop rite do it right, why are chick fila workers always smiling, why do Publix workers love working there? Meanwhile every A&P I’ve ever been to has shut and food emporium I’ve seen 3 locations fail inside a decade just in my county. That’s business. Restaurant business is another good example. You can’t get tables at decent waterfront places near me. Booked til September. This was back in June. People who go there pay obscene prices. Workers make good money. Then look at QSR. I think it’s both situational, sometimes regional and worker specific, and while not macro, not totally micro, call it midcro. I guess I see enough ways businesses can exist and have happy and decently paid employees. When I started my biz back in 2012 I couldn’t believe how for basically $20 an hour back then, you could more or less own people and get them to do whatever you wanted. That’s not a nice way of stating it, but that’s how it was. Or you could get a revolving door of mediocre labor for $12 an hour. $10 off the books, It seemed too good to be true. I guess maybe this starts fitting into this whole ESG thing… I dunno. But the talk these days, especially with inflation, seems to paint outcomes that are too binary which I don’t think is accurate at all.

The grocery store owner simply needs to open his checkbook because the workers enable the store to run profitably. Most of these people have never had any leverage, now they do. What I think also is under discussed is the mirage effect in employment. Where did you say all the labor demand was? Oooh, services. So all the stuff that kind of got held back and is now experiencing the reopening rush…Which too, will pass. I started my life back up sooner then most after March 2020. Summer of 2020 and especially in FL winter ‘21 I went out to eat and did more shit than I’d probably done the previous 4 years inside of 6 months. Now? I don’t even really go out to eat any more. Order sushi once a week. These things are eb and flow and create an illusion no different than when you saw the rampant big tech hiring sprees in 2020/21, fintech in 2021, etc. Companies see crazy demand and they react and then it passes and they slam on the breaks when they should have just chilled from the get go. Housing is a great example. Why are builders looking to hire anyone for pretty much any price? Because home prices are crazy. Why are home prices crazy? A lot of it has to do with the bottleneck around supply chain. So it’s actually an interesting dilemma where you see this gold mine, but like a little investor taking advantage of a 99 share odd lot, there’s only so much you can do to capitalize. Then once the supply chain corrects, the prices have to adjust, and if you misread your inputs or relied on higher prices and margins….time to backtrack. So as before, much is just time. By year end I think stuff comes down big. And by spring/summer 2023 I think we re actually comping lower on much of the cpi inputs.

I mean where was the rage tweeting on wage growth from Bill Ackman when he was writing himself 9 and 10 figure checks? Oh yea, I forgot, when wealthy folks do it, it’s cuz they’re talented, deserving, and superior. When normal people get raises it’s cuz there’s something wrong! Can’t possibly be that they’re undervalued and have been for a long time. Only the haves deserve their raises.

Eh you’re probably right. I personally tuned out on all this virus nonsense and hysteria probably sometime around June 2020 and just decided to get on with my life and laugh at the people who wouldn’t. Can’t say I’d do it differently. In fact my quality of life and my investment portfolio are both better off because of it.

Here’s why I’m not worried about that AT ALL. Services is largely middle class and under jobs. Demand there is strong, yes. But the job market is bifurcated. White collar and tech, financial services? That job market is getting crushed this year. So the top end of the jobs market is mediocre at best and the bottom and middle end are historically strong? One, I think that is great. And two…where were all inflation story peddlers when wages for tech and finance guys were going ballistic? When homes in Whitefish Montana went bonkers? When Tesla sales of $100k+ cars took off? Oh yea they were the biggest cheerleaders while the little guy got fucked. Now the tables have turned and I just don’t see how it’s a problem if the supply chain stuff gets fixed. It even makes me bullish and sets the stage for the roaring 20s to really unfold.

This is a very real possibility in developing places but here? It would be a hoax similar to ones past. For all the bitching about food price increases it’s like yo, sure your multigrain bread is now $7 a loaf…but store brand white bread is 99c. Oh a Big Mac is $11 now? Filet $30 a pound? Costco sells 18 burgers for $15 and London broil ain’t expensive. But we are a land of whiny and entitled brats and the media and politicians will take every opportunity they can get to create a new problem to get everyone fixated on.

Nah they just DGAF about the standard operating procedure. Love how those guys roll.

The inflation game is done. Peak hysteria has passed. Now the last leg of the “inflation is rampant and must be brought back down” argument is that the stock market has bounced a few percent lol. Stick a fork in it. Everything else continues to, wait for it, deflate.

It’s above average or better in a number of areas I expect to do well and is fairly cheap with trophy quality IP. Be long eyeballs on screens.

To my original point, it seems we are socially at the point where discretion and sensitivity is only advised when the group being discussed isnt deemed likely to be conservative/republican/independent/heck even moderate liberal like Musk. Anyhow, enough for me here.

Also, I'd add that the covid virus spread to people indiscriminately, through air. This one, the statistics regarding carry and spread...well, to be proper, I'll just say....have some clear correlations.

adding to Nintendo

Everyone is overreacting, as usual. My man nails it here

They were jokes. I was basically beating around the bush but I am just curious why everyone, after having no issue whatsoever recklessly casting blame during covid, even stuff as stupid as blaming individual people for the virus, blaming folks not wearing masks, despite the fact there was virtually no supporting evidence for any of their claims, now, goes hush hush when there are clear, science verified facts regarding who and what spreads this? So I won't make the jokes anymore but the question is certainly legit and definitely not out of line for an inquisitive mind. Why are the mouthpieces and news outlets afraid to be honest about this?

For those that were interested in UBER a few weeks ago todays release somewhat validates the thesis. I added a smidge more at the open.

Immigration is part of the answer however I’ve yet to see any credible plan from either side that would have enough legs to get through government.

Yup. I’m 100% happy holding assets I want to own. I sometimes wonder what private market assets I own would look like marked to market lol. Wonder what a chart of Ripple Labs or Synthego would look like over the past 5 years. But I think one just wants to stay true to their framework and be a big boy. For instance I doubt Jimmy Dolan is worried about what the stock will do next quarter. Or Bruce Flatt pondering the market to market on his NYC office portfolio. I was recently debating an offer I got for a semi high end baseball card. Wouldn’t be a ton of money or anything but mid 5 figures. And between paying commission, taxes, and then having cash I was just like nah. Not worth it. Same with one of my rental properties. Don’t want to deal with taxes or give up that 3.5% mortgage.

Like if everything stays the way it is, if you buy today you’re getting a good price. If it changes negatively and stuff goes down you get a better price. Both situations should be acceptable to any reasonably oriented investor. Your only job is to make sure you buy good companies or assets. Otherwise, what the fucks the problem and why the need to vastly over complicate things obsessing over all this short term shit?