Gregmal

US Steel is up a lot too...must be euphoria.

Yea I started inadvertently doing this, and now my top 5 is > 100% lol

Idk but the “greed and euphoria” narrative really only seems paired with stocks going up. I don’t see much by the way of crazy positive sentiment in too many places. It still actually seems like the overriding emotions are skepticism and bitterness.

So what’s the new super bear target? 3750? When is the recession coming as well? Need to prep. What if inflation stays sticky icky icky at 2.197846% vs 2.0%? At some point we either learn or we don’t. New records make money. Old records make money. Broken records don’t.

I just think it should be obvious to everyone that this guess the short term stuff game is for suckers and inside of it are two types of people…. Leaches and scoundrels who don’t actually put money behind the stuff they’re spouting off about…basically analysts, tv personalities and subscription sellers…they make money because they finds an audience of idiots. And those that do put money to work and the results often tell a different story than the one they often boast about. Of all the folks I’ve met in my life who fall into this bucket, maybe 10-15% are legit. Out of that 10-15%, probably 90% don’t really seek to make public what they do.

Cramers done better than the recession bros this year. So theres that.

Probably one of the hardest things for some(many) market participants to come to terms with is, 1) that they aren’t that smart and don’t have an edge, and 2) that maybe, just maybe, the market is simply, roughly speaking, where it should be and the macro is just kinda gonna truck along in an uneventful way…. One of the bigger takeaways from the past few years is this pissing match like contest of sorts taking place in the public domain where people need to predict these entertaining and sensational things. Of course, as we ve seen, 90% of the predictions from 95% of people are at best just guesses masquerading as informed predictions….but really, it’s not nearly as entertaining or career building a venture to just state that the market/economy is just gonna be fairly average/bland…

Lol exactly. This was all so seemingly obvious yet people chose to live in the textbooks. I really do want to start a thread titled “never forget the experts” and pin all the moronic articles, interviews and columns, Twitter posts, and analyst takes the last 2 years. Probably 85% of so called “experts” turned out to be total chumps.

If you bought stocks every time someone said dont fight the fed or made a recession call over the past 2 years you're crushing it. Sometimes it pays to think independently and go against the crowd. 12-18 months ago I was told about this GFC 2.0 type housing collapse and the impending recession too....here I stand today, far wealthier than the 5% treasury would have made me.

Also think another obvious lesson here is the whole livin in the real world thing. Wayyy tooo much of this "we had inflation in the 70s and this happened then so thats whats gonna happen now", "every time the curve has inverted we get a recession", etc stuff....markets are dynamic and evolving. History repeats and rhymes and sometimes doesnt do jack. Relying on things other than the textbook are crucial to successful navigation of the markets. I mean no better example of living in the real world than seeing the market correlation to CPI...understanding how CPI is constructed(cough flawed/rigged), and then trading that wind and unwind...was easy if you saw it. If not you went around thinking things were what the talking heads told you.

I "don't think most saw" the risk that at the ending of the hike cycle and inflation hoax that markets would be at ATHs...Never even sniffed those low targets and sans a few hour test of SPY 3500s, nothing materially bad really happened anywhere except some bonds and shitco banks LOL

Who cares? It was a total mistake last year to sit around wondering "whats the fed gonna do" and its a mistake today. Thats just a dumb way to invest as theres far more important variables out there.

Man idk. A lot of ridiculous forecasts and predictions were made. We were told all these kinda dumb little 1 and 2 percents and insignificant monthly rounding errors forecast absurd price targets for “the markets”. Recessions have been “called” for more than 2 years now; they’ve always been “just around the corner”…now the saga is over and we re at ATHs basically but I’m sure we ll still hear how we shoulda been in bonds or that the next big scary drop is due any minute now. Biggest takeaway isn’t really the importance of spiking the football, but rather to ignore the hysteria and think with one’s head, in the real world, and that stocks tend to do quite well over time. It’s not much more complicated than that.

Only question left is what’s the next hoax?

Didn’t we say the same exact thing last year about the big wage price spiral in January 2023? These things are largely imaginary.

It is said to be dead by YE 2024. Maybe, maybe not.

Long la liquidityless litigation liquidation. Bought $30k worth of GYRO. Might buy more if I feel lively and can get some stock.

Id definitely concur with this sorta thing. Even if I didnt know what you do, Id say in my own life, finding ventures that require niche skillset and basically my own instinctual elbow grease have produced absurd returns while being capital lite. Just gotta know where and how to plant those seeds.

Still regretting selling your overstock? Congrats.

From the shares initially to the call binge with @ERICOPOLY, to the big cash windfall in summer 2022….couldn’t have done anything better here.

Ok so on KW, because to me, KW seems to be something that falls into the “old Fairfax” bucket…it’s one of those companies that has the Fairfax halo and thus over the years has tended to trade at an undeserved premium. They own some pretty unremarkable assets, in some pretty lousy locations, and I’ve never spent much time going past surface level analysis with it because it’s just so obviously unappealing almost immediately. Why is Fairfax still here and what’s the point in going forward this route versus something more independent or sensible from an investment standpoint?

Do you see what’s been unveiled as culturally embedded in our highest and supposed “brightest” institutions lately?

Yea I had no idea that anyone would weigh anything related to the Tylenol stuff even remotely as heavily as they did. That’s such an obvious bullshit grifter pipedream suit.

We need a collection of Jerrys greatest hits. Early 2021 inflation was transitory(off by 18 months, expert!) 2022-3 Fed Stress Tests on banks using MAX rate hikes 200 bps higher(then raises rates 500 bps triggering bank failures) Says any rate hike would have a multi year lag, then whines a couple months into the process "not seeing enough progress" Keeps jawboning about inflation being persistent and entrenched as we parade from 9-2! Openly worries about energy prices despite energy prices being no higher than they were decades ago Laments higher than normal inflation while being totally unaware of the fact that the only reason it current is higher, is because of housing and HIS rate hikes are the reason housing is elevated And these are our experts! Only thing more amusing is that theres still no shortage of market followers who wait around trying to anticipate what this clown will say at his next presser or boys and girls club speech.

Whereflation? Whaflation? Huhflation? This whole spectacle was so laughably predictable and played out just like COVID. In fact, that herky jerk parabolic spike then plummet chart we talked about oh so much through the COVID and supply chain cycle…making its last trip through the system, currently with interest rates. People need to stop being so gullible. Long live entrenched and sticky. Maybe next year we get some deflation(remember when folks laughed at that idea) as jerkoff Jerry realizes he got hoaxed by high finance and academia. Got a conspiracy theory that Ackman controls Fed policy and that’s why he’s always trading it so perfectly. The most recent Twitter pumping of higher for longer(investors would be STUPID to accept ANYTHING less than 5.5%!) and then cover and bet on lower rates was classic game is rigged shit because it was all sandwiched around…largely nothing happening.