Gregmal

Wouldn’t that then make something like WD40 a better target if strictly going on the valuation angle?

2am this morning I got an email from Apple that Apple TV was going from $4.99 a month to $6.99. Shrugged shoulders and went back to bed. It’s an incredible business with so many different access points to one’s wallet.

Big names in the news today. Apple, Exxon, Chevron, Amazon. Not sure I see falling off a cliff happening with the above. I mean let’s get real. Amazon never had earnings. The special guys running value funds just imagined they did starting 2 years ago.

What is a cliff? What’s been reported this quarter so far has varied. Energy is rebalancing w/ tech weighting wise. Otherwise, with all the doom porn and “terrible” reports, spy is 3800 today, yes even after Amazons pitiful quarter. Apple is up. WM is still like 5% off the ATH. Costco at $500. Are people really just going to sell these off 20-30% because some analysts say updates his book report? Or because they can get 4% in a checking account? Or because earnings will fall for a year or two? This doesn’t all seem really short sighted to you? Especially when you’ve said this is just a temporary “12-18 month reset before the economy has a decade to be healthy again”? This is why valuation shorting is dumb. Aren’t there obvious BAD businesses to be targeting. You seem to be really going down the doom porn rabbit hole lately. Is another 10-15% drawdown in the cards into year end with tax losses for everyone and the future hikes plus earnings season rounding out? No idea. Possible. I just wouldn’t get carried away, that’s all.

Eh too bad. Just when you thought the old man was gonna go ham playing the liquidate and buyback game with Mr Market. Guess we will see.

If this is legit is thing not a pretty significant deal?

Tesla is still what, at least 5x pre COVID and trading like a blue chip. Everything in the world is down 25-30% this year. I consider Tesla more of a Zoom than I do an Alphabet. The one thing I’m trying to refrain from doing is getting carried away thinking it’s open season to be putting on valuation shorts. That’s always an awful idea. It’s the same as holding cash. Just cuz in hindsite it would have been nice 1/10 years doesn’t mean it’s a great strategy. Kinda where I got with Apple. It’s 30-40x but what? The best company in the world and blessed by Buffett. But Tesla? Outside of the woke money backing it, the business has so many fatal flaws. Will see.

And the stock is up after hours even with the Amazon print. In hindsite: FB you have a rogue founder blowing all their FCF on a dream AMZN Bezos checked out to go hang out with celebrities and build space ships. Even the divorce was like yea we don’t care Google/MSFT/Apple all still being run by quality stewards focused on market share and profits Who are the weakest links? Me….Again looks over at Tesla and sees founder who’s living on the edge and selling stock for more aspirational projects and not really making money and shakes head…

Not meant in a way other than comradely level laughing, but I feel for you man. Your nose has been spot on with big tech but your moneys been on Apple and Tesla lol. My only real short position at the moment is the same thing. Shit ton of December Tesla puts. Seems so strange watching good companies implode and Tesla just shrug. I gave up on timing Apple in q1.

Amazon?

Nintendo

Ha! I think what’s troubling is that a lot of these visionaries just don’t care about money, at all. It’s the culture. We hear about the winners but there’s a million losers for each winner and the losers still were surf shorts and flip flops and drink green milkshakes. I think part of where I luckily, no skill even the result of laziness, sold META to buy Nintendo, is cuz I just don’t want to have to babysit investments too much. If nothing else, Zuck should spin off the real business and give investors a shot. But I don’t want to worry about what crazy shit this goofy but promising project might yield.

Agree. I’ll let someone else be the first to claim 10 bagger status on a $1T company investment.

That is a good point and a dominantly prevailing theme during every downturn. The bear camp deliberately ignores anything beyond 12 months and always uses those near term scare tactics to lobby for even more extreme price declines, completely ignoring what’s already occurred and it’s context. I’m not a FANG fan but they’re closer to fairly valued than they are to overvalued(except for maybe Amazon) so it’s dumb to be shorting them. They’re great companies, at this point, mediocre but ok stocks to own, but overall with a little bit of effort one can do far better buying other stuff.

Ive met Hyatt a few times and for sure theres something different about owner operated businesses. BRO has been one of the most under appreciated long term compounders out there.

Google was also a huge beneficiary of crypto and ponzi companies throwing around money like it was 1999. No surprise that as those companies suffer so does ad spend.

Let’s face it. Most of these movements are basically just poor people trying to live instagramable lifestyles. But, being poor always ends up being the problem.

Totally. I don’t know when the “do what you love movement” started, but to any younger guy starting out…100% the advice I’d give is to do whatever makes the most money as fast as possible, even if you are totally miserable. Do it till you have a solid foundation, AND THEN do something you love to pay the bills. It shouldn’t be impossible using the above to get a primary home and $250-400k in a savings/investment account by a reasonably young age, and then from there, with 20-30 years of growth ahead of you, most of it takes care of itself. Just don’t live a Johnny Depp lifestyle.

FRPH when the market is tanking….I love you! FRPH when the market is ripping….fuck you stupid stock. I tend to just ignore it but agree with what you did and have long fought the temptation to rotate in and out of it for similar reasons.

I think one just needs to chuckle at how barely 2 years after the fact, we run into some stupid and temporary issue and again the establishment and finance gurus are proposing the answer is to intentionally pull the plug on the economy. Is this really gonna be a new thing we do every 3-4 years just cuz?

Started bam

Greg is just stating that it’s a little preposterous to just say take the stock market to hell, credit markets to hell, unemployment up 50-100%, because we have no evidence but just a hunch/theory that inflation is gonna go on forever if we don’t, and that 2% inflation is perfect but 3% is bad, and 5% equivalent to 20% unemployment rate or whatever. It’s one of the more unique theories I’ve ever come across.

Theyre just doing it wrong. Vanlife is awesome when you have a $100k RV and use it 2-3 weeks a year!

Why 3000 though and not 2500 or 1200? Or 4100 which is still off the highs earlier? It just seems like people are pulling things out of thin air with these sort of things. For instance, there’s been way more instances in US history where we had strong job and wage growth and no inflation but without any evidence whatsoever and only academic theory, people are matter of factor stating “wage growth=inflation”.

Market loses ~20% in 5-6 weeks....Its deserved and theres more pain to come! Market gains 5% in 2 weeks....this is ridiculous and needs to be stopped! Earnings were supposed to be awful in Q2, and weren't. Now we'll see about Q3, but if they arent awful as predicted, then what? Kick the can down the road and double down on super duper bad Q1 earnings? Or admit the E hasn't fallen and maybe the pessimism is just a little bit overdone? In either event, this has been a twilight zone year for sure.