Gregmal

Who hasn’t had time to setup for this though? We had a full year last year of record earnings, low rate refi, and companies being told to prep for higher rates. Even the darkest of downturns within reasonable probability, 1-3 years? Sure there will be some, but many? Where? O&G is gushing and already had their reset 5 years ago. Banks are better capitalized than ever outside of CS and DB but what’s new there. REITs same deal, balance sheets insanely robust. Where? Brick and mortar clothing companies?

The sweatpants and natty light retiree club lol. What is funny is I don’t even think I’m positioned that much differently than @changegonnacome. Still pretty much own the same type of stuff I have for a while minus a few tweaks this year due to buyouts and liquidations. The majority of what I own has massive net cash positions, little debt outside mortgage, and high probability of generating north of 10-20% of EV in cash for at least the next several years. My caution and even skepticism comes from the fact that we re sitting here touting this inflation thing except the inflation trade has gotten completely smoked and at some point it makes sense to question whether the market is betting on something else. If the Fed thinks they’re fighting inflation and they’re being sucker Fed garbage academic theory into an economic collapse, you’re gonna wanna have a totally different hedge setup than one just banking on the “12-18 month recession and then 10 years of prosperity”.

Two words. Bill Ackman edit, Warren Buffett works too. Point being that you’re wasting a good idea if it’s not at least 10%

They said the exact same thing about COVID too and a whole two years later people are shopping at brick and mortar stores again. So much of this is just rhetoric that fits the same patterns of past market hysterias

You think Latin American countries are economically comparable to the US??

Isn’t this exactly what happened in 2005-07? The chorus of respected voices, mainly academics and hedge funds chirping at the Fed as they put on their short positions? And yea that luminary Larry Summers getting paid $500k for speeches while writing “esteemed” essays on how deregulation of derivatives stabilized the economy…..the Fed is generally well intentioned but naive and prone to listen to academia. Academia is funded and supported by the banks and hedge funds, and the banks and hedge funds sit around talking out of both sides of their mouth until they’ve got their positions lined up? Nothing new. What evidence, at all, do people have to support the claim the inflation is going to be 5% for many years? How many of these people got it wrong just last year? Probably at least half. Who determines that 2% inflation is the golden level but 4-5 will destabilize the entire country? Is there a pundit with an aggressive opinion on 3.5? Kinda golden but kinda bad? People are literally just making things up and running with them. There is a grand total of one time period, 1970s, which isn’t really all that relevant to today, and they’re using that sample size to frame and then draw wild conclusions about what the future holds.

Suffering is good and useful when it’s earned. Bite off more than you can chew to drive a fancy car..sure. Run up credit cards on showy clothing..eat it. Folks losing jobs or bargaining power for better wages because rich people decided things got too expensive, or because they felt entitled to more interest on their do nothing deposits, or because they were aghast at having to wait in line for a restaurant meal is a little too much for me.

Square this with what the majority of folks like Roubini, et al are saying, predicting, rooting for, and the course of action they’re proposing to get us there? Even look at how he frames it…if the Fed “wimps out”…in other words, a 12 year old style condescension of the path they’d take that would prove him wrong hoping to assert some sort of bizarre control over the narrative. There has basically been one instance or period of bad inflation in the US and that was the 1970s. We’ve had 18 months of it coinciding with COVID measures and inflation has already begun tapering off in tandem with it. Yet based off a sample size of….wait for it….ONE, all these people are absolutely certain it’s going to go on forever if rates aren’t raised to like 8%…and oh by the way, how they’re financially positioned is just a coincidence? Eh, not buying it. Especially when they’ve been rooting for the same outcome and making the same complaints regarding monetary policy for decades.

Yea I don’t know how these people exist other than being leeches in the WS cesspool. Constantly preaching fear and trying to profit off failures or miseries of others. Rooting for unemployment, business failures, and hardships for normal people. It’s one of the reasons I’ve never had any interest in a foreclosure or a short sale of a property because at some point you don’t need to be a scumbag who benefits off the misfortune on others. What one has to be as a person to be consumed with this sort of scenario all the time, like the Roubinis or Granthams or the world…it’s disgusting. Rooting for rate hikes you know will create bad outcomes, job losses, divorces, deaths, etc….yuck. Fuck those people. Inflation is just the weasly cover. We survived like 20% real inflation last year…no, the world doesn’t need to be nuked bc it might be 5% next year. Definitely seeing the worst in folks come out. Although this is standard course behavior in the finance world. You know cuz there’s no feat greater than having some puts and then parading around for a decade as “the guy who called it”…a title Roubini still holds dear to his heart.

Never have a read something with so many self congratulatory “as I have correctly predicted”s leading every paragraph or sentence…almost enough to forget that this is another guys who’s basically been wrong forever and just wants his day finally because indeed credit is due for saying the same thing for so long. Oh yea, and he s got a new book out. These people really are such pieces of shit.

Exactly. There’s never been a single digit market drop, let alone a real correction where there weren’t people pointing to more downside ahead. Then when it doesn’t materialize they just quietly go away or blame some sort of real or imagined bailout or something.

The analysts control the stock market bc of estimates. The Fed controls the stock market because the talk. The index control the stock market because they just do. This is the widespread brainwashing that occurs through constant barrage of media and financial product narrative pushing. Isnt it a little more productive just to be a normal person and think? Like hey, theres literally thousands, globally tens of thousands of individual companies out there. I can go look at them, do some work, evaluate them, and then decide whether its worth owning them? Theres like zero relevance here if you're using a mid-long term approach to what dimwit analysts think, or whether rates are 4% or 5%, or what the PE(just a guess from people who arent good enough at what they do to actually be investing in the first place) is on a basket of other shit no one is forcing you to own? And if the concern is "well it could go down", well then you arent really investing are you? Every decision in life is pretty much an acknowledgment of "I am giving you this and getting that, is this acceptable". If yes, whats the problem? If no, keep looking.

This question is only relevant if you are somebody buying the index. Or maybe the FANGs. How does this have anything to do with owning LPX at 3-5x forward earnings and a buyback doing like 20% of shares annually?

Yea look idk exactly other than to just evaluate businesses I wanna own on their individuals metrics, regardless of all this outside bullshit. They stopped the notion of raising in 2018 and what happened? A giant nothing. There probably wasn’t a need or a point to raise, again, it’s all this academic bullshit from the same folks who spouted money printing inflation rhetoric and were wrong for the past decade. The bigger problem(or opportunity) is just how knee jerk and group think everyone has become trained to be. First the Fed controls the stock market, but wait then analyst estimates are too high, so I guess the analysts control the stock market. But wait I wonder what this person or that person is gonna say…it’s all so hilarious and all such bull shit. Imagine if we applied this same nonsense to everything else we put our money into in life? Hmmm I wonder what Kovalic at JPM thinks about getting that new Subaru lease? Hmmm, good time to buy some strawberries Mr. Biden? Hmmm, I need a place to raise my family, would Kashkari find this a good time to do so? Did Bill Ackman control Herbalife because he talked about it and for a while it did nothing but go down? These sort of episodes are great exercises in terms of sharpening your investing tools. Nothing says grow a pair of nuts and nothing rewards with bigger fortunes than going against the crowd and being able to independently do your own work. If something is attractive it should be absolute and if not then find something better. Fuck if the entire basket of stocks this past generation of passive investors likes does +/- $20 in earnings on the “consensus” that some paper pushing bunch of jerk offs arrives at on their excel spreads.

There’s nothing wrong with raising rates. There’s something wrong with thinking that destroying the economy and the average workers bargaining power is a resolution to prices going up temporarily. Supply and demand capitalism fixes that on its own. Turkey is a third world country compared to the US or Canada or UK. Same with the South American countries that saw hyperinflation. What the Fed has done SO FAR, imo, is perfectly fine. Going further would be potentially disastrous. You can’t have the country currently in the most robust shape, being the most aggressive on the rate hike game trying to destroy its own economy. It just hurts others globally to magnitudes greater than here. And if you turn a good economy here into shit, it’ll just further deteriorate things. Way too much academic bullshit being experimented with here when too much of the problem is political and too much else of it is not terribly effective w/ rates regardless.

It’s really funny when you thoroughly think about it and this whole situation. Most of the real inflation occurred through 2021 and early 2022. Screw the rigged and backward looking metrics, use your eyes. The $12 2x4s, steel prices, bidding wars on homes, used cars appreciating, toilet paper price gauging, etc…all that shit. And I don’t think there’s many who wouldn’t say 2021 was a great year for the economy and all. Not even talking about the stock market, the real economy. So the inflation works it’s way through just like with used cars and 2x4s and even the spac and Ponzi scheme stocks and wouldn’t you know it, corrects itself on its own if given enough times. Capitalism works. But then, out of nowhere, the central banks all decide they need to blow up the economy and potentially causes what I guess you and others are saying may be a “multi year economic crisis”…..this is truly one of the most bizarre events I’ve ever witness in my lifetime. More so even than COVID. Everyone gets together and decides they need to destroy any single positive thing about the economy, globally, to fight this ever changing thing called inflation. Pretty remarkable.

Of course not. COVID and shutdowns were. I don’t know how one can say otherwise, per the recent call even, Looking ahead, fiscal '23 will represent our first full year of events at our venues since fiscal '19. Looking ahead to fiscal '23, we have meaningful visibility into our sponsorship revenue base and are currently on a path to deliver sponsorship revenue that is well ahead of fiscal '19, our last fiscal year before the pandemic. Our traditional entertainment business is poised to deliver substantial revenue growth versus fiscal 2022 as well as relative to fiscal 2019. We expect this to reflect a full 12 months of event activity at our venues with continued strength in consumer demand. The return of the Christmas Spectacular for 181 shows for the 2022 holiday season versus 101 shows this past year and ongoing momentum across marketing partnerships and premium hospitality.

I think we’ve discussed this in one of the other threads, but you don’t need the 10k to know that sometime in early 2020 something happened that might have impacted, just a little bit, MSGE operations. The last time the Rockettes had a full, uninterrupted slate, was 2019. Heck, the majority of their segments haven’t yet had a normalized 12 month run yet. And then on top of that they’ve been working on some pretty capital intensive project. This will all rapidly change over the next year. In two years the numbers are going to be insane relative to the current market cap.

Totally. Between all the spins/financial engineering and COVID it’s an optical disaster.

One can (kinda) hope. At that valuation I guarantee you’d see a tender for like 30% outstanding. Rockettes would be like 2/3 of the market cap. I don’t get the market pessimism at these prices. It’s not like they don’t make money and it’s not like the worst isn’t behind them on Sphere. Baffling for sure.

That’s what’s funny. Amongst all the talk of these inflation based theories on what’s gonna blow up, it’s the Apples and Costcos and Waste Managements that are still outperforming. Meanwhile the MSGEs, not to mention telcos and build supply companies with stupid FCF yields have been annihilated. By the time Costco gets to $300 or Apple to $100 MSGE is gonna be a penny stock lol. Markets are great ain’t they? Seems the fund money is betting that the Fed amputates the patients arm to cure the issue of a hangnail. Weird times.

I guess just one semi relevant question I’d have on the logic of “the E falling off the market next year”….why are we giving so much weight to one year in the grand scheme of things? Didn’t we just go through this with COVID? Like there was literally a full 2-4 quarter period where not only did companies see “the E decline”, but they lost absolutely staggering amounts of money. Seems short sighted to me.

Those in the 55-65 crowd, unfortunate enough to still be working, who thought they put in their time grinding, saved the peasant wages and relied on employer contribution, and were about to retire…

A tribe of 100 Vikings didn’t just settle somewhere and create a world power because they were magicians on the infrastructure front and could turn dirt into dollars. You need population growth because ultimately it creates the value(generally an economic base) necessarily to keep funding future growth.

Every growth place in the world was/is built off the back of migration. To the extent that it’s supported and done responsibly it should be at whatever pace the ground zero location can handle.