Gregmal

Partly yes, and partly no, IMO. You want to be clearly and cleanly long the 1% which is one area in what I own I look to thematically express. Not “anything NYC” which is a huge losing proposition due to basically an all the above list of perils ranging from government overreach to greedbags who screw minority shareholders, to criminals on the streets, even down to the Brookfields who engineer vehicles designed to leave risks with others. As you and I agree, along with pretty much 110% of my “NY Rulz bruh” friends, MSG is pretty much the apex of NYC high end entertainment and hospitality for the 1% and mega corporations. Biggest sponsor at the Garden…JPM Chase lol. Playoff tickets? 4-5 figures a game. Harry Styles or Taylor Swift tickets? 2 months salary for the average American lol. Further, the Penn Station development, which is crucial to revitalizing and improving the city…all roads go through MSG. Dolan has to get paid for that to work. And besides, Dolan is your classic NY mogul….what’s not to like about rolling wit Dolan? But outside of MSG, the investment options are pretty shitty and the real world options are all tucked into risk filled land mines because of general deterioration of the city. I mean you wanna buy a property and ABNB it knowing you’ll get sued if you discriminate against a felon or a pedo? Or likely rent to some heathen who has no respect for your property who you then charge damages to but their bank account is empty? Fuck all that.

I mean you cant really operate fluidly as a business when hot dogs and ice cream displays need locks on them. Corporations still value having an NYC office, but not to the same degree they once did, especially in terms of size and grandeur. I mean its been startling, even with something is fundamentally iconic and part of what makes NYC great as MSG....just how much nonsense these politicians are putting the company through for ZERO reason! Harassment for facial identity security software. Refusing an operating permit. Refusing to pay them for land they own. Demanding the company itself pay for public things. If thats how you treat your top talent so to speak, imagine being an aspiring entrepreneur? Like why would you start a business there knowing you're getting robbed on taxes. Gonna have to go through a horrendous business permitting and approval process due to the system. Safety isnt even something they care about anymore. At the end of the day the politicians and authority figures seem to have the exact same attitude as the NY Rulz Bruh! folks...like they matter of factly state "NY is awesome" like its a mic drop and expect everyone to just agree, and bow, and jump through hoops because "NY is so great"...and more and more, from corporations, to small businesses, to just normal(non homeless) people...we are seeing them just say "nah" because the mix in other places is way more favorable when all else is factored in. When I invest, I like long and hard to disrupt tailwinds. Here you have the opposite. It probably changes again one day, thats how cycles work, and I'll be there to jump in when it does, but I gotta put food on the table and the investment case here is poor.

I get that aspect. I loved it too. Missed my first job interview out of college cuz we got toasted at Webster Hall, missed the train, stumbled probably 3 dozen drinks in around the city for a few hours and had pizza for breakfast at 6 am before getting to Hoboken. But what drives wealthy young 20-30 year olds? Office jobs.

My biggest concerns there are pro crime, pro tax the wealthy(their lifeblood), and just generally continuing to be horrifically anti business. All those things are getting worse, not better.

End of the day, office drives NYC. When office starts recovering, then we can look at it.

I mean sans the 20-30 year old crowd, and maybe the immature Peter Pan 30+ craft beer Brooklyn crowd, and then the 1% ers who own multiple homes or can at least afford to, how is Vegas, South FL, parts of Texas, Reno, Raleigh, Charlotte, Virginia, heck even Massachusetts suburbs not more attractive? I don’t know any parents who like restaurants so much that they willingly choose to place dining out as a higher priory than their kids educations. Or athletics? Like oh hey Johnny, why don’t you run down to Washington Square Park and make friends with a gangbanger and a hypodermic needle lol.

For who though? My understanding is that the migration and demographic shift is not occurring in the 20-30 or 30-40 never grow uppers, but everywhere else. Who either wants to, or properly can afford to raise a family there? Sending your kid to even “decent school in NYC requires private education and that’s $50k a year. Who’s retiring there? The strength is obviously the young folks. But WFH challenges that. And outside of that? There’s not much other than trophy homes for the top 1% and then shitboxes for 25 year olds looking to fuck.

I’m born and raised from the area. I’ve lived in the city. Leased an office in the city. Lived and leased office space in the suburbs of NYC as well. And spent plenty of time in other parts of the country. Its funny when I get accused of being biased by die hard “I love NY” folks who know nothing but the city. Bottom line is that it’s a shell of its former self and as a market participant, speculator, and observer, the trends are undoubtedly negative and growing. Check AIV vs CLPR charts. These high tax, pro crime, pro whatever you wanna call it states and cities have real problems brewing. That doesn’t get negated or fixed because rents are high on an island which is apparently what a lot of people point to as evidence. Although I don’t disagree there’s few better places if you are a 20 something year old high earner who doesn’t care about paying taxes, or even a hedonistic 30 something year old who refuses to grow up, but for everyone else, the luster is waning.

LOL yea. Its amazing how resilient the "NEW YORK RULZ BRUH" crowd remains in defending all this. But the city is a shell of its former self and the numbers dont lie. Its just incredible that they continue to support politicians that are actively trying to make things WORSE! You know, how bout fixing your broken and gross public transportation system instead of banning gas stoves and pizza ovens...nah. That would involve "enriching" the evil owners of those properties....so........lets just free some more criminals.....

This is the death spiral. https://nypost.com/2023/06/30/new-york-tax-revenue-falls-nearly-20-while-florida-texas-gain/ Who they gonna tax next? Normal people and families ain’t hanging around and putting up with all this….restaurants and 20 something year old lifestyles be damned.

Another thing I find so puzzling is how obsessed so many are with fake, made up terminology like “bear market” or “bull market” and can’t bring themselves to invest unless they "figure out" which one they think we are currently in…. CNBC today…”investors believe we are in a new bull market”….Same time…”bear market rally will be short lived in July”…. So stupid backing oneself into a fabricated corner investing wise based on lazy terminology. Anyway….how dem bears doing?

Ok sure but who exactly has made out here? It was uncanny, really like nothing I’ve seen before; last year, maybe in March and April, like a blade cut through the existing status quo. Every one of my contacts all in upper class neighborhoods said EXACTLY the same thing….home improvement projects, new car purchases, everything..stopped. And everyone said the same thing. They’re about to tank the economy. The great reset is happening. You think the average blue collar worker was cutting their discretionary spend down to the bones, cashing in all their stocks, and refinancing the house? Nope. They just wondered why half the jobs they booked last month cancelled and why the phones ain’t ringing off the hook anymore. This was, outside of COVID, the most obvious wealth transfer attempt scheme I’ve ever witnessed. Even down to the coordinated lying about all the impending economic doom, the housing collapse, recession being right around the corner….this whole process has been a shameful sham and an attempted inside job.

Started CARR

I will go out on a limb and say this guy aint ready to retire if his retirement was predicated on absolute peak PHX homes prices and a 7% pullback puts him in peril. For all we know he didnt budget in realtor fees in his home sale forecast and maybe he was never ready to retire to begin with!

Yea totally. I used macro for nothing other than to potentially plan to seize opportunities. Never much else. Being prepared is 90% of the battle. Its probably the only reason I held APTS to deal close(outside of taxes) which is something I never do. Or was as aggressively using PSTH as a placeholder. Its how I established buy points and shopping lists for stuff I liked in some cases, 12-15 months before they reached those prices. Just gotta have a plan. And a backup. And a backup backup. If you need more than that, everyone is usually fucked and it doesnt matter LOL.

There’s that recession they all predicted. Funny reading some of the excuses.

Maybe you guys are being too literal. Inflation will be just like COVID. Technically sure, it’s still hangin around. The first big shock happened. Here and there you’ll get stupid little flare ups that certain people will shit their pants over but the market will largely just shrug at. Fade the inflation story. Been preaching that since H2 last year. In 2021 we laughed at the transitory folks who were convinced it was going away any day(this was the majority of people, even here)…then in ‘22 the script flipped and all those people rushed over into the “it’s here forever” camp much like contrarian indicators do. The threads don’t lie. Story follows the same arch as COVID did almost to a T. To his credit @changegonnacomewas always in the higher for longer camp. We parted ways being on the same side of that trade summer of last year.

Essentially….housing rips for several years. Then slows down for a year. Proof inflation is sinister….like come the F on.

LOL again man! Cherry picked bullshit. Inflation didn’t start in the last 12 months. It started in summer 2020. It’s the same folks who mock others with “oh I guess the stock market only goes up”…who then cherry pick short term examples of where stuff goes down…as proof of something! You can absolutely retain or even increase purchasing power if you owned housing through this stretch. So … to your post, I’d just ask…what’s your point? That if something DOESNT “only go up” there’s a problem? If there is ONE stretch over the course of time where something does poorly, it’s proof?

To be clear Ive been no lower than 1.2x and as high as 1.7x levered through the whole thing. Its not because I have ANY ability to be certain all the things you are saying are right or wrong, but its because the crux of my investment philosophy is that owning assets is long term beneficial and the more you own, the better you do. Just manage your risk. Find ones that are indestructible. Work it. It blows my mind when I see young people in cash. My dad is a conspiracy theory money printing bubbles guy. My 28 year old sister had some money laying around and he offered to invest it for her...bought t-bills LOL. Over the past 4 years she's made less than what Ive made this month! Like what is any person with a time horizon greater than 2 years doing not owning stocks? Bonds are for old people and the top 1% of gunslinger market wizards. Theyre throwing returns in the toilet for pretty much everyone else. Cash is even worse. I will fully admit you have a very in depth, thorough, and sophisticated thesis. I will fully admit I dont; I just dont care and am agnostic to the market. I solely let individual companies and their fundamental value propositions talk to me. So the super macro pessimism is just baffling to me. Why get hung up on all that crap? Its just a distraction.

Not really. Its actually one of the few ways the US and many highly indebted nations work their way out of it...We've had it before. You have consistently arrived at many of these "if this, then that" conclusions...and part of what Im pointing out, the bulk just haven't played out(polite way of saying they were wrong). If the thesis was Fed needs to hike higher and earnings will come in modestly and there will be multiple contraction, and, well, all that happened, except there was multiple expansion....uhm, thats getting the most important variable in the equation WRONG. To which we can either learn...figure out ways to adapt, or do the Fintwit thing and just keep harping on how "I disagree with the market" in perpetuity LOL. Bigger picture, the problem with inflation is that people just continuously make up their own definitions of it and arrive at all sorts of crazy conclusions. 2% inflation is a made up "ok" figure. But wait, 3-4% is totally unacceptable LOL? How many different "measures" have we even seen the Fed use over the past year? First CPI. Then the stock market was a proxy. Then the unemployment rate. Then core. Then supercore. Its really ridiculous to even keep having these debates because its pretty much been settled. Real inflation ex housing has currently been in freefall since last June. Is it 2%? 3%? 4%? The average American wouldnt know the difference and if there is variance in that range over many years its inconsequential. Ill point out the even some of the "sinister effects" of inflation, that you've stated over the duration of this thread, have consistently changed. From the poorest 10% getting screwed(while ignoring all their stimulus money), to C-suites not being able to budget correctly with inflation, to wage price spirals that never seem to materialize, down to just "they said the target is 2% so they have to stick to it"...we are in restrictive territory, maybe they hike a few more times, but the story is over. I can go back to October and again in March were I suggested not to overstay your welcome on this inflation inspired bear trade. Its over. Dont be the last guy at the party.

Isn’t that hugely problematic? Markets can always price stuff in. They can always go against you. Not being able to envision a scenario where one is wrong….is suicidal. It’s hugely arrogant. It’s how the frog slowly boils in the pot. Also hugely arrogant as we’ve talked about is this notion that we KNOW what multiple the market or stocks should trade at. Since the inflation started, no asset class has been as durable as stocks have(no I’m not buying the bs data points which cherry pick start dates in q1 ‘22 that happen well after the bulk of the inflation occurred)…Many businesses are deserving of the premiums. It makes zero sense as I’ve repeatedly stated, if you believe there is inflation to be wasting your time with 5% bonds.

Not mine. I’ve said 3-5% stabilized inflation is a nothing burger, if not even hugely positive for the economy. The Fed can’t tackle the inflation that isn’t going away with rate hikes. They’ll talk the big talk but eventually if they get carried away we ll see heads roll which is awesome. These dumb dumbs are still looking in the rear view mirror. You wanna drop inflation? Lower rates to 2% and build into oblivion. Instead they’re making housing more expensive and paying people 5% to be cowards and not invest in the economy.

Isn’t part of the problem with the dedicated bear thesis that there’s no scenario where the market does well? It’s simplistically 1) the economy has to tank(lie by saying it is already) and 2) if it doesn’t, that the Fed needs to keep trying to sabotage it? I mean if the thesis is that earnings will decline(previously it was fall off a cliff or plummet…now the goalposts move to “just decline mid single digits”) and the economy will slowdown(with zero context in that it was at an artificial COVID induced high) and because of that, the market needs to go down WAY MORE than the 30% it briefly did…..if that’s the thesis and it’s been “spot on” but the market is higher…that kinda means some liberal assumptions were made, probably arrogantly, with respect to what’s priced in and where the market should be trading. There’s consistently been this wanton assumption that everything should be trading at low-mid teens multiples. Not sure where it came from, but that’s been a faulty assumption. Nevertheless if we have a pullback from 4300 to 3700, I’m sure they’ll feel vindicated. Larger lesson? WTF are people doing playing this game? Last year, doesn’t matter what you fancied, there was homerun type buying opportunities. Imagine sitting that out because you disagreed with what the index was trading for?

After Powell spoke for instance, it was amazing how many people felt validated missing a 10-20% rally across the board because there was a 1% intraday/overnight drop. Victory laps even. It’s just hilarious. I’m tempted to get a Twitter account just to troll these folks but I think about it and then come to my senses. But it does highlight how many pikers are out there in the finance world peddling complete crap.