Gregmal

LOL again man! Cherry picked bullshit. Inflation didn’t start in the last 12 months. It started in summer 2020. It’s the same folks who mock others with “oh I guess the stock market only goes up”…who then cherry pick short term examples of where stuff goes down…as proof of something! You can absolutely retain or even increase purchasing power if you owned housing through this stretch. So … to your post, I’d just ask…what’s your point? That if something DOESNT “only go up” there’s a problem? If there is ONE stretch over the course of time where something does poorly, it’s proof?

To be clear Ive been no lower than 1.2x and as high as 1.7x levered through the whole thing. Its not because I have ANY ability to be certain all the things you are saying are right or wrong, but its because the crux of my investment philosophy is that owning assets is long term beneficial and the more you own, the better you do. Just manage your risk. Find ones that are indestructible. Work it. It blows my mind when I see young people in cash. My dad is a conspiracy theory money printing bubbles guy. My 28 year old sister had some money laying around and he offered to invest it for her...bought t-bills LOL. Over the past 4 years she's made less than what Ive made this month! Like what is any person with a time horizon greater than 2 years doing not owning stocks? Bonds are for old people and the top 1% of gunslinger market wizards. Theyre throwing returns in the toilet for pretty much everyone else. Cash is even worse. I will fully admit you have a very in depth, thorough, and sophisticated thesis. I will fully admit I dont; I just dont care and am agnostic to the market. I solely let individual companies and their fundamental value propositions talk to me. So the super macro pessimism is just baffling to me. Why get hung up on all that crap? Its just a distraction.

Not really. Its actually one of the few ways the US and many highly indebted nations work their way out of it...We've had it before. You have consistently arrived at many of these "if this, then that" conclusions...and part of what Im pointing out, the bulk just haven't played out(polite way of saying they were wrong). If the thesis was Fed needs to hike higher and earnings will come in modestly and there will be multiple contraction, and, well, all that happened, except there was multiple expansion....uhm, thats getting the most important variable in the equation WRONG. To which we can either learn...figure out ways to adapt, or do the Fintwit thing and just keep harping on how "I disagree with the market" in perpetuity LOL. Bigger picture, the problem with inflation is that people just continuously make up their own definitions of it and arrive at all sorts of crazy conclusions. 2% inflation is a made up "ok" figure. But wait, 3-4% is totally unacceptable LOL? How many different "measures" have we even seen the Fed use over the past year? First CPI. Then the stock market was a proxy. Then the unemployment rate. Then core. Then supercore. Its really ridiculous to even keep having these debates because its pretty much been settled. Real inflation ex housing has currently been in freefall since last June. Is it 2%? 3%? 4%? The average American wouldnt know the difference and if there is variance in that range over many years its inconsequential. Ill point out the even some of the "sinister effects" of inflation, that you've stated over the duration of this thread, have consistently changed. From the poorest 10% getting screwed(while ignoring all their stimulus money), to C-suites not being able to budget correctly with inflation, to wage price spirals that never seem to materialize, down to just "they said the target is 2% so they have to stick to it"...we are in restrictive territory, maybe they hike a few more times, but the story is over. I can go back to October and again in March were I suggested not to overstay your welcome on this inflation inspired bear trade. Its over. Dont be the last guy at the party.

Isn’t that hugely problematic? Markets can always price stuff in. They can always go against you. Not being able to envision a scenario where one is wrong….is suicidal. It’s hugely arrogant. It’s how the frog slowly boils in the pot. Also hugely arrogant as we’ve talked about is this notion that we KNOW what multiple the market or stocks should trade at. Since the inflation started, no asset class has been as durable as stocks have(no I’m not buying the bs data points which cherry pick start dates in q1 ‘22 that happen well after the bulk of the inflation occurred)…Many businesses are deserving of the premiums. It makes zero sense as I’ve repeatedly stated, if you believe there is inflation to be wasting your time with 5% bonds.

Not mine. I’ve said 3-5% stabilized inflation is a nothing burger, if not even hugely positive for the economy. The Fed can’t tackle the inflation that isn’t going away with rate hikes. They’ll talk the big talk but eventually if they get carried away we ll see heads roll which is awesome. These dumb dumbs are still looking in the rear view mirror. You wanna drop inflation? Lower rates to 2% and build into oblivion. Instead they’re making housing more expensive and paying people 5% to be cowards and not invest in the economy.

Isn’t part of the problem with the dedicated bear thesis that there’s no scenario where the market does well? It’s simplistically 1) the economy has to tank(lie by saying it is already) and 2) if it doesn’t, that the Fed needs to keep trying to sabotage it? I mean if the thesis is that earnings will decline(previously it was fall off a cliff or plummet…now the goalposts move to “just decline mid single digits”) and the economy will slowdown(with zero context in that it was at an artificial COVID induced high) and because of that, the market needs to go down WAY MORE than the 30% it briefly did…..if that’s the thesis and it’s been “spot on” but the market is higher…that kinda means some liberal assumptions were made, probably arrogantly, with respect to what’s priced in and where the market should be trading. There’s consistently been this wanton assumption that everything should be trading at low-mid teens multiples. Not sure where it came from, but that’s been a faulty assumption. Nevertheless if we have a pullback from 4300 to 3700, I’m sure they’ll feel vindicated. Larger lesson? WTF are people doing playing this game? Last year, doesn’t matter what you fancied, there was homerun type buying opportunities. Imagine sitting that out because you disagreed with what the index was trading for?

After Powell spoke for instance, it was amazing how many people felt validated missing a 10-20% rally across the board because there was a 1% intraday/overnight drop. Victory laps even. It’s just hilarious. I’m tempted to get a Twitter account just to troll these folks but I think about it and then come to my senses. But it does highlight how many pikers are out there in the finance world peddling complete crap.

That’s all fair, but there was a certain smugness from so, so many people all through H2 last year; condescension, bravado, they knew it all….among so many of the predictions…you couldn’t trust the P/E on forward anything because “the E was going to fall off a cliff”….I just wonder what those people have to say? Do they try to claim their prediction was correct because of a modest earnings reversion coupled with a higher(much higher from some of the starting points) index? Do they kick the can down the road and just keep saying next quarter, next year? Do they nut up and just admit they didn’t know shit? It’s probably the only reason I ever go check in on Twitter anymore….most of them are still singing the same stale tunes. It’s enjoyable to see it. It’s so enjoyable KNOWING that at best they have not made any money and at worst they’ve gotten their asses handed to them. Huge earnings collapses, Homebuilder impairments. Mother of all bubbles popping. These people are court jesters. I would even turn on CNBC except they never hold anyone accountable. They just put on Tom Lee and Cramer when the market is bullish and then flip to Grantham and Grant when it’s bearish.

Was reading through an old email chain from last year. Had a good laugh recalling all the folks who found themselves clever and edgy regurgitating various punchlines in regards to "the market" valuation because of "the E falling off"....Q3 is their last shot at that. Dont hold your breath.

Theres different problems everywhere. Some are better than others. We were in Seaside a few months ago and the family of the kids our kids were playing with were hardcore Jehovahs Witness nuts. Its was annoying, but better than dealing with garbage everywhere, druggies all over the street, and knowing that every block you walk on, likely puts you within a couple hundred feet of a violent criminal.

Is this “coup” what wasn’t why the Nasdaq crashed 1% today?

Tell me about it. I’m still waiting for the feel good scientific study about how much world we ve saved as a state since banning plastic bags and straws in NJ. I get 3 text messages from the health dept a month about staying updated on COVID boosters, but the fake scientists can not seem to manufacture any data categorizing why we aren’t allowed to use plastic bags at the grocery store.

It’s not “fake” but my god we ve been hearing about all these super big deals with massive global implications and major incoming consequence from all the usual suspects since February of last year. And the result? Nada. Wheat futures are volatile. Lol big deal. -30% oil prices? People have been trying to scream “HUGE STORY” with this Russia/Ukraine thing, for reasons I don’t quite understand, and as someone who is just looking at investment angles…find it both annoying and bizarre.

Yea. Sure. Tell us more about Russia sabotaging pipelines, false flag drone attacks on the Kremlin, and that dam strike! This whole thing has been laughable. The EU nat gas crisis. Zelenskys 11 figure grift, China invading Taiwan next. Oh boy.

So another hyped up, American media created cocktail, that turns out impotent. Nice.

I don’t understand why financial markets should care, at all. When this started, everyone made a huge deal of this. Told us how devastating it would be. How much it would push inflation higher long term. And that turned out to be completely wrong. Essentially a nothing burger. Oil was $90 a barrel pre war. Today it’s barely holding $70. This was little more than reality TV for the warmongers and pro USA propaganda for the media and politicians. So sure, there’s a new twist in Russia, but why should we care in terms of its larger impact here?

Sports is becoming a joke. Was watching the Yankees game tonight and Michael Kay on Aaron Judges injury update..."spoke to Boone and said he's making progress. Today he was able to get in the pool!"... Twenty years ago Scott Stevens nearly killed Paul Kariya in the Stanley Cup finals and Kariya comes back the next period and scores a wicked goal on a sniper snapshot from top of the circle. Now, a generational baseball talent stubs his toe on the warning track and a month later is courageously getting in the pool....

There’s one settlement for 3M

Yea I’m looking to free up some stuff and hit puts. Can get $2 on the Jan 24 $30 which creates a synthetic double digit yield all for the privilege of buying this for 30c on the dollar.

Yea as long as you can get reasonably comfortable with the likelihood of the investment exceeding the cost of putting it on, IE your access to capital, then it’s easy. IE if you can borrow at 6% and expect the investment to do 8-10%….I almost never worry about stuff like “beating the market” or whatever. You look to take shots you know you can make. The results tend to take care of themself.

Before the “way off top” of $69k from todays $30k, we had a mere few years ago a $19k top and a $3k price. I agree the next high may be a while, but don’t think the arguments against Bitcoin that have repeatedly and wrongly been made now for a decade have any more merit today. It’s effectively the same stuff the short Tesla and perpetual doomers do. Market goes up 3%, it’s fuckin bullshit and built on idiots just speculating. Market then pulls back 1%…see, I’m vindicated, I knew it! I also agree, Bitcoin on nothing. The rest are garbage. I do own Ripple preferred stock, but that’s a tad different than just speculating on the future of digital gold.

Sold DG. Nothing changed but $17 a share in a week or two is good enough for me

Yea I definitely concur that you need to let your winners run. When to sell? Idk but I sell or reduce stuff when I no longer feel comfortable with it. If you are honest with yourself you can really just feel the ground shifting on stuff. The thesis changing. Fundamentals deteriorating. An important distinction is secular versus cyclical. If I like something long term secular I care less about the cyclical. But if I’m playing with a secularly challenged or just plain old shitty biz, you want to be decisive. Big reason I got out of GM years ago. So I guess much of this also helps having a catalyst. REITs out of COVID had the sunbelt wave and then with a lag the widespread recovery where even the shitty blue state stuff recovered. Once that played out there’s much less reason to hang around unless you have an AIV or VRE type catalyst. VRE to me it seemed lost its catalyst when they refused to entertain selling in a good environment. So I sold.

No mass inventory impairments from KB. Where oh where are all the impairments!

Also, a stepdad is not a dad.