Gregmal

Bernie wants to steal from the owners of these corporations??? Nah, you dont say. I'm shocked. Perhaps Bernie should start paying his fair(not 11%) share on his $200k+ income and tell his wife to stop defrauding universities.

You have peaked my interest with this. Any quick insights you have about this company? Nothing worthy of praise as far as info goes. 90% of my short term bullishness is for technical reasons. More or less this is a classic in favor, to out of favor, let the pendulum swing story. So as we all know, it's highly levered. Minor improvements in the business and or debt reduction greatly enhance the equity value. I give some weight to the fact Joe Papa came over when the stock was trading at higher levels($35 or so IIRC), and a lot of his compensation is tied to stock options north of $60. Its been quiet of the VRX/BHC front for a while now. It seems after the name change and some time passing that the shackles of negativity are slowly moving away from the company. So on a fundamental basis, I dont see the same overhangs I did a few years ago. Now look at the chart. This thing has run up to $25 or so several times, and then fallen back. But again, like the broader market, it is resilient and knocking on the door again. It's purgatory trading range has basically been $12-25 and I think having done its time in the penalty box and shown sustainability at the core business, it's ready to make a big move if we see one more solid earnings report(Feb20). I looked at the options and having the above outlook, the March options look quite cheap. You can go long a $24 or $25 call for $2. That strike gives you a built in stop loss should earnings suck or the shares pull back down from the high end of the current trading range. Whereas if this runs you got IMO at least $4-6 per share in upside. Given the setup I think the options are very mispriced, and as such, am willing to take a swing with a small spec position.(For me defined as .5% of portfolio or less. In this case it is less)

BHC calls. This one looks like it's ready for a breakout. small spec position....

Yea not an NFL fan, but awesome to see greatness. So funny too how bandwagon LA/celebrityville is. This isn't even their team and all of a sudden they were all Ram fans... tools.

A current, or TTM PE is irrelevant and IMO shouldn't even factor into one's analysis. Forward PE can be important but again, I've never found it useful buying just on next year's earnings. Essentially one needs to be able to objectively analyze the business prospects going forward in order to get comfortable with an investment. So in the event that I expect a NTM PE of 10, and the following few earnings are off, there's only two culprits; 1) ME. I misjudged the business or environment, or 2) Management is either dishonest or incompetent. And even in the event of number 2, it is the investors job to make sure you are comfortable investing with the current management. So if you do the work, there are safeguards.

The only thing resembling value investing here is the name of the site. The majority just follow consensus. The "daring" ones, when courageous enough to go out on a limb, deviate from just buying Berkshire(or what IMO are index fund proxies), to buying an individual name Berkshire owns.... There is so much value and opportunity in the markets these days. Its not all in one place or another but hidden under various rocks and part of what makes investing truly what I've heard called a "global treasure hunt".

Yes we touched on it in that thread. I had familiarity with it then and further began looking into this over the following months and after doing some work, and hearing people in the field rave about this, began looking for ways to express this optimism through an investment. I have yet to find a specific one. And FWIW CRISPR can target both RNA and DNA. Its primary delivery mechanism however is a guide RNA with an endonuclease that then splices the DNA. The mole removal analogy to me is easier than doing a biology walkthrough just to make this coherent to the average investor. https://phys.org/news/2018-02-crispr-cas9-tool-rna-dna-precisely.html The idiot Jiankul not only committed a highly unethical violation, but potentially set things back in terms of public acceptance. One of the big things Jennifer Doudna(more or less the one who discovered this) has been a major advocate of responsible introduction of CRISPR to the public. This way, it is understood rather than feared like GMO's.

AKA CRISPR I haven't seen anything here on this so I thought I'd do everyone the favor of floating what is described by scientists as a "once in a generation breakthrough". Yes I know this idea is not for everyone, but thats OK, it can only be for those that want to make money or have the ability to see where the puck is going...If you require a single digit PE and low P/B in order to make an investment you can stop reading now. If you are open minded and wish to continue, I introduce you to the breakthrough technology... That is CRISPR and the variants Cas9/12/cpf1/3. What CRISPR does is effectively target specific genes within an organism by activating proteins naturally occurring within the immune system and directing via RNA an attack on a specified areas. In layman's terms think of going to the dermatologist and having a mole removed. CRISPR more or less removes a malignant mole from your genome. It is that simple and this is why it is going to change modern medicine. Up until now, the majority of treatments for any sort of ailment involved putting together a concoction of, lets call them, "things" and then seeing how they reacted with the body. CRISPR entirely removes this aspect of risk. It is as simple taking a taking a scissor to an undesired or harmful trait. A good piece is found here, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604126/edible-crispr-could-replace-antibiotics/ So far, CRISPR has been effective on every complex organism it has been attempted on. It is able to target just about any disease, and on a scientific level, is so easy to apply high school students are messing around with it in AP classes. CRISPR itself is not really that controversial, however the aspect that is controversial stems from the optionality. When programming the RNA so to speak, you have two options. One is to cut out the genome, and the other is to cut out and replace. Cutting out and replacing is where you can take an undesired aspect and flip it into a desirable one. There is a fortune that will be made from this and there are a bunch of different avenues where one can look to invest. Rather than follow specific companies I have found it helpful to follow specific doctors whom have developed and patented this "technology". These names are Jennifer Doudna, Feng Zhang, Emmanuelle Charpentier and George Church. The various fundraising rounds have been loaded with the biggest names out there. Bill Gates specifically has described this as "one of the most powerful technologies of the 21st century". There are a handful of public companies with holds on the patents, as well as a good few private companies with shares occasionally available which offer an opportunity to play this space. The names I think are worth following are Caribou Biosciences, Editas Medicine, Crispr Therapeutics, Synthego, and Beam Therapeutics. I have found Nature.com, Pubmed, and Researchgate to be sites with ample resources on this and database access to current events. Curious if others have studied this, and/or made investments or have ways to play this. Be forewarned that yes, these companies will not likely to make money for years and that yes, this whole theme is not even in the first inning yet; it's just batting practice, maybe pregame warm ups. But the opportunity is so massive and the patents even today IMO are severely undervalued mainly because people fail to fully understand or appreciate the potential and have all sorts of misnomers floating around because of stigmas attached to boogeyman words and phrases like "GMO" and "playing god".

Yes you can, as long as the shareholders you screwed and the new shareholders are different. It happens all the time. Yea, it happens all the time. Just wipe it out and then re-issue it with a favorable valuation. Will be oversubscribed as well.

I think it’s important to remember that the high majority of the time, material changes in asset prices can be caused by things that in hindsite are rather immaterial. Multiples can expand and contract on nothing other than sentiment. So doing ones best to understand all the different puzzle pieces and how they fit into the bigger picture is just as important, if not more so, than simply waiting for a material change. More often than not, material changes, once obvious, are already priced in. Real world examples would be obvious from looking at any number of story stocks. WPRT was one of the biggest examples I can think of. The company was a dud, but had a great story. For years the market ignored poor results and a management team that over promised and underdelivered, consistently. Returns were quite impressive. Then, out of nowhere really, market participants lost confidence in management, and then the company could do no right. It plummeted like 90% inside of a year without any real “material change”. Tesla IMO could be another one real soon. My point, WPRT was a shit company. The US economy is quite healthy. Fluctuations can occur, that are quite material in terms of impacting the value of ones investment, and driven by nothing but sentiment. It’s easier to swim with the current, rather than against it. One just needs to find the current. Who cares how long Jerome Powell needs to chase his own tail...

Thanks. I have been following Greenhaven for a while and they are top notch. Very under the radar firm with some outstanding ideas.

1211.HK a few minutes ago

Well rest assured, he is now confident he has shrunk his fund back to a size where its returns will no longer be impeded... Additionally he is opening it to new investors so that they can take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity.

Sopranos Californication Nip/Tuck Damages Mad Men Eastbound and Down I don't watch much tv and it takes a lot for me to get into stuff. Honorable mentions but not stuff I'd really be able to rewatch were Boardwalk Empire, The Wire, House of Lies, Dexter, Vice Principals. Currently trying to force myself to stay with Billions, and giving Black Monday a chance. Homeland had big potential but I totally got bored with it after Season 3.

I doubt anyone is looking to mimic his strategy right now. I think the secrecy at this point is about getting attention. He saw it did wonders for the value of his book. Which like his strategy, is nothing special.

Its amusing how secretive this dude is. Its not like he's protecting valuable ideas anymore.

Only in the stock market do these things exist and they exist simply because you can check stock prices daily. If you know the business well it's pretty cut and dry. If you're a sole proprietor and you keep having to invest new capital, eventually you realize its a lost cause and close shop. If you see the business grow and start seeing cash on cash returns, you know you've got a good one. When you can internalize these things as the owner of a publicly traded company, you're where you should be. If you get nervous just cuz the stock goes down, stick to index funds... If you are an investor in individual companies, you should be able to discern "health of the company" from "stock price gyrations".

Except how do you limit your losses to 10% rolling the dice on momo names? A good majority of these get their momo from earnings. So unless you are basically just a day trader, I feel like seeking out companies that by and large are the biggest earnings movers, and expecting to cut losses at 10% is a bit flawed...FB was the momo poster boy until its 25% earnings related gap down last year. A 10% stop wouldn't have done any good there.

LOL the zebras guide the game to the favorable outcome...Jesus

Oh watch. On one end, NFL's Curry beats GOAT on amazing 10 point 4th quarter comeback, OR GOAT leads last minute comeback AGAIN in dual for the ages. Notice every other play is at the discretion of poor officiating. NFL has become a total joke. The game is officiated to produce the best ratings and most drastic results/matchups. Its so predictable its sad. Its no longer sports.

Here you go. NFL trying its hardest to turn Maholmes into their version of Steph Curry. No better way than stage a 10 point 4th quarter comeback against Brady and the Pats. NFL is no better than WWF these days.

Indeed, but just wait, the only certainty is that the refs will find a way to make the game interesting. The only certainty in the NFL these days.

I am not a fan of the NFL. The main reason is players are only out for themselves and the game is entirely dictated by the referees. One call negates dominating defensively. The QB protection measures are pathetic as well. I could not believe not only this call, but the possession before they just ignored blatant pass interference.

Precision Castparts and Lubrizol are another $50B or so of easily identifiable value. I would also value the stock portfolio on a liquidation basis, which must account for their tax liability which in many cases, comes from a very low cost basis.

Unless we're all going to present audited trading reports, then boasting of returns is useless. Comments can be verified though. So yea...