Gregmal

Did you buy JOE in December? If so, you did great. I'm still a holder. Been selling off a little of HHC. Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS). Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings. I have learned that lesson via companies like Keck Seng, where compounding over long periods is hard if management overpays for assets. Right now, I still hold HHC, but I'm more interested in adding to Griffin Industrial and FRP Holdings. Griffin seems clearly undervalued to NAV, NAV appears to be growing, and you can see a 3-5 plan (maybe sooner) on how that gap would close, particularly if interest rates stay low. FRP's NAV, on the other hand, is tougher to estimate, but you get to invest alongside the Bakers at the same prices (or lower) that they are buying back shares. You could do much worse than simply giving the Bakers your money via FRP and watch them act prudently and harvest assets at the right time, as they've done many times in the past. And if you want to see what a great asset looks, just look at what they don't sell -- royalties on rock piles. One real-estate related company that I've haven't seen discussed on here is Canterbury Park Holdings. That may interest some on here, but it's much more of a single asset real estate play, and the attached race track operating business is having issues. Aha! You've been using the same strategy? Buying below FRPH disclosed repurchase prices has worked well. Have not heard of Canterbury. Sounds a little like Dover Downs. Thanks

Great topic. I dabbled with various VIX option strategies for a bit and saw what you guys pretty much described... it just isn't economical over the longer term. I'd need a pretty big hunch or gut feel to pull the trigger on something like that now and would probably go for longer dated SPY or bank puts. In regards to the last post, which is a great one, I kind of have the opposite approach. I'm fine screwing around with my own money. No one ever went poor losing a few percent. You can always make it back, whether through earning it, or through investing. I take risks and make stupid speculative plays with my money that I would never do with someone else's money. Someone trusting you with their money is a very fragile thing built on trust and there's too many jackoffs out there who manage OPM in egregiously self serving ways.

Also added some more CLF calls (glutton for punishment) and am eyeing some $150 BRK calls if we get a little closer to $190

FRPH

Well, at the least I hope now people can stop fooling themselves with twisted logical narratives about Warren's secret strategy with the buybacks. At or around these prices, it is clear he has no interest in allocating meaningful capital to buybacks.

repurchased some CLF

Off the top of my head, as of a few years ago something like 70% lost money after the first year and 85%+ over a longer period of time I forget. Some of the ones that worked from recollection would be Tile Shop(now in the bust category though), Del Taco, Twinkies(Hostess), AYR(although this is still early). Easier to just be an IPO investor, cash out, and play the free warrants.

Did you buy JOE in December? If so, you did great. I'm still a holder. Been selling off a little of HHC. Still like the company and the assets, but I see some cheaper stuff out there and I'm overweight in real estate (also own SRG and TPHS). Same deal for me, just somewhat different names. Too much cheap real estate. If I can easily determine a real estate company is sitting on assets(or debt) that won't turn the equity into a 0, just wait for a big enough pullback or margin of safety and then buy it on margin. The downside is not all of those can be long term holdings.

100% with Google. The greatest investment might have been Youtube which at the time some thought would destroy the company. Waymo has been great and specular in its own right in that it isn't really something that has relied on the existing user base. Although Waze does help with it. Thats been a project that to me, has validated their ability to go outside the core business and put something real together. Entire sectors dinged when AMZN announces its looking into a new business venture, so I argue this is priced into AMZN. Netflix I guess I just fail to appreciate, but outside of first mover status, I fail to see what keeps others from taking that space eventually. Content is king. Disney and ATT have made HUGE moves in the past few years. They're playing the long game. Microsoft is just a beast. I've never appreciated it for how diverse it's businesses are until it went bonkers. I remember looking at this in maybe 2013 at $35 or so and thinking it would outperform an index but not by much. Totally wrong. They've got nearly a dozen billion dollar businesses and the scale to do whatever they want. Interestingly enough they also seem to escape any anti trust talk. FB to me is a ticking timebomb. They have the users but growth just shifts from one(FB) to another(Instagram/Whatsapp) business and eventually needs to be more than just an ad company who does sketchy shit with your info. To me they resemble Google when all they had was search.

Buying OR selling based on a rate cut/hike is pretty stupid. Plenty of people here(well maybe not plenty, but a few) made a fortune when the idiots took over in November/December because of a meaningless rate hike... Same thing.

Bought some MSGN and MSB with proceeds from NVTA. Broadly speaking, today is just another example of what happens when retards take control of the stock market. Opportunity for the rest of us. If you were "surprised" by the widely expected rate hike and decide to just start dumping everything, you might as well just give me your money now...

Goog point pupil. I recall hearing a lot of the same thing around 2012 and then taking a peek at many of the market favorites. My thoughts were basically the same. WTF are people talking about? Most of these companies are HUGELY net cash.... I see more or less the same today, just to a slightly lesser extent.

Sold last of my NXPI premarket at 102. Busted merger play that ended up producing a respectable shorter term IRR after trading around it(December helped big time). Noticing a trend with this company that I'm not a fan of, and I'm already overweight GOOG, GM, and CIBR, which roundaboutly cover all the things I felt I liked about NXPI. EDIT: Also sold last of my JOE; again, thanks December!

Ive long believed that if you want to invest with somebody, you want to invest with a guy who has a great track record of individual stock picks rather than some prescient macro calls. Making a big macro call once every dozen years gets you a ton of publicity that, even to this day, still helps guys like Paulson and Kyle Bass. But its smoke in mirrors and usually reflective of a failed strategy. Give me the guy who's picked 3 multi baggers or special situation plays with 100%+ IRR's in the past 5 years.

Marketing geniuses and value creation jerk offs...

Probably about what 5/50 on your brokerage account translates to after turning out 30% for the year.....

Whats the reason for the switch? You see more upside with PayPal? Long term yes. Short term also capitulating to any bearish ideas. The original idea was to invest in some recession-resistant dividend paying companies with at least some pricing power. But growth has totally outperformed this idea. Mostly I think I need to move towards a more passive (indexing) option, at least for the near term (3-5 yrs I'd guess). Over the last year I haven't really had the time/energy/pleasure to actually do any investment research, and the results reflect it. Even worse, I haven't really cared... The reality is given my situation (age, net worth) my ROI is higher concentrating on my career than on my portfolio (ROI both in terms of amount and volatility of cash inflows). Something about whole-assing one thing vs. half-assing two things ;D ;D Its OK LC. Ill manage your money for 5/50 and show you how its done. I do for a lot of liberals.

Sold a little CRSP and swung proceeds into MSB.

I think the point he is trying to make, is the same one he's been trying to make for AT LEAST the last half decade. And it s a point worth considering for ANY investor. But he always goes about making it in a way that serves his needs and justifies his lousy performance. As you even pointed out, he misrepresents things quite often, and just doesn't learn from his mistakes. I mean look, there are businesses out there trading at prices a rational investor should never consider paying. But that's fine, no one forces you or me or anyone to go buy them. There is plenty of $$$ oozing out of other opportunities...focus on that! Its just so off putting and dishonest IMO the way some of these guys act like "Oh Tesla is crazy...thats why I lost 20% last year...the market is out of control"... when thats just not really something that makes a whole lot of sense to me.

Congrats to the bunch of people buying GOOG not too long ago on that dip under $1100. This is why its baffling people can't outperform if actively managing. You should not be managing anyones money; not even your own, if you cant/couldnt see the merits of GOOG from an investment standpoint. From early June this is up near 20%....

This guy just doesn't learn... "Einhorn: “For those that think the 2000 bubble was the big kahuna, consider Chewy, which went public in June 2019."" https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481765-einhorn-picks-chemours-dillards-scientific-games-pan-chewy Not everything is a carbon copy of some other event that occurred in the past couple decades. But I'm sure in 5 years, after his underperformance continues and assets dwindle down even further, we'll here about how he nailed it and see numerous victory laps when the market does finally correct and one of his highly touted 150bps short positions goes to 0...

This jerk off failed at managing money in one of the easiest environments ever... now he's running a bs newsletter....and people are bidding up stocks based on his touts? LOL suckers https://seekingalpha.com/news/3481080-home-plus-16-percent-tilson-tips-buyout-activity https://empirefinancialresearch.com/articles/snap-is-ripping-stock-idea-of-the-day-at-home-gabriel-gregos-takedown-of-bio-on-when-martin-shkreli-tried-to-stiff-me The only question anyone paying for his services or considering acting on his recommendations needs to ask is this... If you are worth listening to, why couldn't your fund make money?

His neglect of BRK shares for the past couple years while off "elephant hunting"...

Bought some of this right now lol. 19.4

trimming some CLF