Gregmal

Any UK Lawyer that wants to relocate to Russia to save taxes probably deserves to be in jail. Seriously Russia? You would think they go to Luxembourg first. Why is that? Its not just the big law firms, its the consulting and larger accounting(especially Big 4) as well. First, Luxembourg isn't a huge hub for most of these firms; they may have an office there, but typically(unless its a Mossac Fonseca type firm) they only have a few employees and one moderate sized office there. Whereas any firm of size who has a London office also probably have at least one, usually more though, locations in Russia, Hong Kong, Dubai, etc. So whereas the entire firm may have a presence of one office and 6 employees in Luxembourg, they've got 4 offices with two dozen people in each in places like Russia. So if you're a junior partner or senior associate, going from $200 GBP a year plus bonus, to equity partner making $200K a month with a $1M+ quarterly partnership distribution... you're really going to stick around in London paying 55-60%, or request to go to an underserved location(where the firm is trying to build out their book of business), get paid to relocate, and pay 11% taxes? St. Pete for instance, if you like London, is pretty awesome. Russia is a little like the Wild West, but its crazy how badly people misrepresent it.

Perhaps we interpreted each other differently. I was replying to the notion "worst case in we become like Europe"... Admittedly, and previously said, Scandinavian countries are an exception. I was not looking at the path that seems to be implied by your suggestion; leave the US(diversify out of) and find investments elsewhere, such as in Europe. That though, is certainly an option, and probably even a soundly simple and low risk way to mitigate some risk over the next 12+ months rather than go cash or go short here in US.

Doesnt the idea of injecting capital(raising) conflict with the idea of either wiping out, or paying out existing securities? I would think in order for the new capital to make sense within the parameters of all that is part of this equation(congress and the appearance of enriching Hf's) you simply need to collapse the legacy securities into common(something thats been discussed) and thats really it. Its simple, and everything else is too messy. You cant raise capital to pay out a settlement given the political noise that would create. And you cant raise new capital after wiping out the old. They also need to move fast(re:not complicated and drawn out). Say what you want, but the current system still works fine even while common and pref continued to get screwed, and if there is one super, duper, easy piece of meat for a newly elected socialist to throw their constituents, it would be to put the kibosh on a "hedge fund pay day"....easily doable with an executive order or by re appointing her people.

Oh, give me a break. It's all non-relevant nonsense-talk from you. Greg, how about you asking me for a link to the best European bank that I know of? LOL seriously? Thats your response? Ive begun to think you are the type that if you cant plug it into an Excel sheet you cant/dont understand it. Which is fine. But pointing out variables that effect market conditions and discussing strategy for that, is useful to some, and could be to others; if they were able to appreciate it for what it is. So, if the US basically becoming another Europe is "non-relevant" to you, well thats your decision. I really will try to look for the 2016 election thread sometime. Where a Trump victory was basically a non existent possibility to most here. Caught with the pants down and in that case, it was more an opportunity cost; things didn't go down like they will if Warren/Sanders wins, but people missed out on entire sectors going ballistic and missed a lot of easy money to be had. SLX(a sector ETF) did 50% in like 3 months, XLF over 33%, heck ever BRK did nearly 50% over the next 12... hogwash though I know! Nonsense talk!

Last I checked this was an investing forum, and last I checked essentially every European index has gone nowhere in the last decade as the combination of their open border policies, rich entitlements, lax working environments/schedules, low birth rate, and internal squabbling, to name a few, has collectively left the region in a state stagnation. Cherry-picking Germany as some shining light of economic strength without mentioning the economic destruction in places like Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal is at best irresponsible. Germany benefits economically as part of the EU for the exact same reasons that Greece, Italty, etc. struggle. And what has all this to do with being a stock picker? - You're posting like an indexer. For starters, sailing is easier when you have a weather report. And downright easy when you know which way the wind will be blowing. Europe has consistently been a drag on the global economy. Basically every year since 2010 we've been dealing with one crisis to be or another from them. I continually deal with white collar Europeans who cant wait to get out. UK lawyers who have to relocate to Russia and Australia to avoid getting walloped with 55% tax rates. French executives who live like the poor folks Rulenumberone likes to refer to in Silicon Valley. Belgians getting cranked for nearly 40% of every dividend or tiny sliver of interest they earn on top of outrageously burdensome tax authority requests. The folks in Germany are generally the best off, but even there, its admittedly done in spite of the government and all the bullshit being peddled. The Scandinavian countries are definitely an outlier though. But acting like Europe is some model for what US people should get used to, well, thats preposterous. As Ive said, there is a reason everything American trades at a premium. So with that said, if I see out on the very far horizon, a Warren iceberg, well, Im damn sure going to keep an eye on it, even if its not currently expected to get anywhere near my boat.

The point of the thread was to throw around ideas that could work leading into an election where she is the top democrat candidate, and/or if she wins. Theres no purpose to debate if Trump is removed; Pence takes over...same deal as we have now. Lest how quick we forget how 90% of this board got caught with their pants down with their "assumptions" last election. I should go back and look for that thread. It was hilarious. Anyways, little harm in looking at even long shot trade ideas. At the rate most people discard ideas anyway, it shouldn't take much time. COBF and most "value guys" typically fit the following equation: here s top quality tier A company = "I'll pass, too expensive" here s a dirt cheat, average company = "I'll pass, its got too much hair" Always an excuse not to invest. Like I said, no harm in browsing.

Sold my over the weekend BRK trade position. Earnings were not as hoped for, but as expected. As they say though, good things happen when you go to the front of the net, ~$4 per share in 5 hours...

Was Trump winning the Presidency not a ~20% event, THE NIGHT BEFORE? Let alone a year plus prior? I see no harm in communal brainstorming and speculating. Personally, the best ideas are the ones that overlap many scenarios in the proverbial Venn diagram. They hedge my risks and present me as many ways to win as possible. Always be on the lookout for those.

It doesn’t need to make sense. Running for President or any of the higher offices is much like holding a senior executive position at a public company. You only need to get in for it to be life changing. So say whatever you have to in order to get there. Results are irrelevant, as once it’s time to judge(in and of itself quite a while as your base will swallow excuses for a long time as well) you’ve already gotten what you want.

Please let us and Mr. Buffett know where we/he can make a 12% return with minimal risk of permanent capital loss. I have trouble finding investments that meet these criteria where I can put a couple of millions at work… If there isn’t 12% involved in BRK equity then what’s the point in owning it? If there is, then why isn’t he buying it back? Old man has lost it, and he knows it.

I think there’s been more than enough evidence presented to conclude that perhaps Buffett has lost it. Which is independent of the market being in a bubble or not in a bubble.

I was reading somewhere that guns stocks/sales did far better under Obama than Trump for the reason mentioned by Bizaro. Gun sales can remain elevated in perpetuity if there is the constant threat of killing the second amendment. No one is running to the gun store with a Republican in office. Somewhat half heartedly, I would think certain pot stocks could do well also as legalization is basically a blanket policy for all the dems. Maybe someone can create a 3 P's ETF. Pawn shops, pot stocks, and potato chips.... Personally, I'm inclined to look at short opportunities simply because, like with other stuff, you can also kind of be right without Warren getting elected. Things may just slow down on their own. Warren getting elected would just inject steroids to the main vein. You'd also think NNN REITS would go ballistic. I dont want to do a complete reshuffle as Warren is a low probability event, and I think Im decently market natural already, but you can never be too prepared and if the cost is low to put on a few trades with optionality, why not?

Agreed, I just started a thread to discuss the market prep for a Warren win. I agree on oil, but think many of the E&P's still suffer quite a bit. IN fact, somewhere in there I am sure there is a tremendous pair trade shorting some type of fracker/E&P and going long something a little more casual, maybe KMI or something. I think the house voting this week quelled any fears of impeachment. Politics aside, you need a big number of Senate support, if you cant even get a vote in the House, its not happening.

I hope the headline is tame enough for all the sissy's, there were definitely more compelling title choices, such as "Basketizing the Basket Case" or "Trail of Tears for the Stock Market"...but I wanted to get a thread going, given the overwhelming amount of sentiment that Elizabeth Warren would be very bad for the equity markets, that focused on ideas that hedged and or capitalized on her rise to power. This is an investing website, so for those able to get past the politics I think it makes sense to throw around ways to soften the blow. As we all know(or should know) now is likely the time to prepare for this rather than waiting for the thread about "buying puts" a day or two after she is elected. For the record, I do not think Warren can beat Trump, but in the name of making money, do not think its wise to completely write this scenario off either, at least from a risk management perspective. I'll start with a few that Ive got an eye on. Shorting, or well placed puts on Credit Acceptance, CACC and World Acceptance, WRLD. These are names that have been somewhat controversial and attracted negative attention for supposedly taking advantage of the consumer. They are very prone to regulatory sensitivities. Pelaton, PTON. One can only imagine what would happen to something already as flimsy and non proprietary as this. What happens when the pool of people willing to pay $2500-$5000 plus a monthly subscription fee for what is basically a NordicTrack with an iPad taped on and a Youtube feed gets cut do to the threat of higher taxes and compressed business resources? I'm looking at the frackers as well, but Ive always kind of considered most of the E&P companies pieces of shit anyway. Maybe shorting an ETF or something there has merit. Will add others in time depending on the unfolding of events. Curious to see how others are setting up(outside of 50% cash, bro)...

What is your take on deep OTM index puts vs deep OTM individual security puts. I won't mention names, because that could redirect the focus to specific company talk, but wouldn't it perhaps make a better setup to cherry pick the most endangered of species? We can all use our(relatively speaking) more sophisticated investing insights to basketize(I might have just made up a new word) the same general hedge trade, no? An index will never go to 0, but select securities can. I've been doing the OTM put stuff now for the past few months with pretty decent success(not to lose sight of the fact that you and others Ive noticed have been doing the same but with the index and VIX), so Im just trying to see where the greatest risk/reward setup is. Would a subjectively selected Warren basket outperform the broader index which would also include names that benefit, IE healthcare?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaires-cohen-and-jones-predict-the-2020-election-could-trigger-a-market-plunge-if-warren-wins-2019-10-29?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Sure we got say things like "worst case scenario Warren, is basically like France or Germany"...but lets not forget there is a reason the US economy is far superior to anything in Europe, and there is a reason US markets get premium multiples to Europe. So worst case, Warren erases a lot of that premium, and IMO theres a long way down. Wealthy people are fleeing France because of their crooked tax schemes orchestrated by the government, and Germany has basically confiscated residential real estate through price controls.

I'd still probably spend the same amount of time on investing...I'm an addict. David Winters said it best when he called inviting a "global treasure hunt"...but yes, to answer your question...we'd basically become France...where June-August offices are mandatorily closed and it would be illegal to respond or even check work emails between 6pm and 6am. How boring...and how opportunistic for those of us that dare work, or enjoy what we do.

I agree about political risk and have tapered, and continue to taper my portfolio to be much more neutral by the time we get a handle on the Democratic nominee. Japan comparison has always fascinated me, but I think its unlikely, some of the reasons in the blog post address why. But whats important to consider with Warren, is not really what the actually policy does to a business's fundamentals, but the effect it will have on the market. Maybe nothing tangible materializes, but that still doesnt mean we couldn't/cant see multiple contraction.

http://brklninvestor.com/blog.php Good read about how silly all the bubble talk is.

I put on a quick trade here today. It seems this has lagged everything, including some of the stuff mentioned above regarding its larger holdings, not to mention the broader market. The stock traded at levels we know they were buying back stock at, into the Q3 close. While I am sure Warren doesnt fret what others think or are saying about him, I am sure he 's not totally deaf or blind, even at 90+. So in other words, I think theres more negativity baked into this than necessary, and that Mr. Market could be pleasantly surprised by whats reports, in which case, Im looking for a relatively risk free $5-10 a share in short order. As always, I could be wrong, but in that event, theres worse things to own.

Put on a little weekend trade with BRK @214.

Not for nothing, but I learned pretty quickly that one is significantly better off assuming that EVERY person they encounter in the financial industry is a total piece of shit. Ive now been in that biz(tangentially) for a while, and to this day, out of everyone Ive ever met, can count on one hand the number of people who would put people before dollars. It is what it is.

So Fairfax tries to be as clever and cutthroat as say, a Brookfield; they just suck at it, among other things...

Trimmed GM, CRSP, GRIF. Still holding positions but looking to continue tapering down the margin balance into next year.