Gregmal

Another strategy based on buying a starter position in a quality company perhaps at prices slightly higher than one would like and then either making some quick money or then build into it at lower prices. Seems like a way to make money. Some people don't like to make money I guess

Solely on principal, I have a hard time reconciling companies being forced to allow people to use their products in certain ways. Isn't it simple enough. If you don't like it, dont use it? I have never had a Facebook though so maybe I'm just out of touch.

Picked up a few CTO and have been filled on 5 GRIF. Lucky me!

Sanjeev its not just value investing that's the issue though...it's the investing! Maybe I'm gifted, IDK. But it really doesn't take long to size up a public company and determine if it's worth considering an investment. Even average investors should be able to look at something and kind of figure out what it's universe of outcomes will be, with a certain degree of accuracy. Which is why its just baffling when I look at some of the decisions these guys have made over the years. Like how many examples of broken tech companies(let alone gadget companies) do you need to see(cough Palm) to know that Blackberry was a lousy investment? Is there anything really that jumps out and screams "I need to own me some Resolute Forst Products?". I get they may be cigar butts, or turn arounds or whatever; the textbook "value investor" stocks...But these are just downright shitty businesses, with high risk and rather static reward(especially if you start looking at the entry points these guys had). So it's not just "value investing is out of favor"...one really needs to question the judgment being used. I criticize some of the BRK investment performance, but at least they almost exclusively buy high quality companies/businesses...Prem is buying garbage.

Don't like it? Dont click on it. Real Simple. Dont want to have to scroll through posts??? God help you when it actually comes to scrolling through something laborious like an SEC filing....much more tedious than just dragging the mouse down and ever so slightly moving your eyes...

Fixed!

Bought some more AYR. Here's hoping this bitch finally bottomed...

This was mentioned in another thread but deserves its own topic. Really great piece on the incredible events that took place shortly after the GFC. Really highlights why investors need to be flexible and open to making money in whatever setup presents itself rather than just remaining married to one strategy or philosophy. Been a fan of Dan David for sometime but really didn't know the full story behind his involvement here. My only surprise was that there wasn't any mentioning of Benjamin Wey who was quite possibly a bigger player than anyone mentioned in the documentary.

I'm not familiar with this kind of company but the numbers look interesting. How do you evaluate the risk of leasees not paying? What do you mean by leasees not paying? They do not have the model that relies on leasing. IIPR, which is basically in that line of business and is actually quite interesting as a REIT but not something I own or have gotten intimate enough with the expel certain question marks tackles this kind of stuff. AYR has the bulk of it's forward guidance hinged to its wholesale buildout. To date they've been successful with this and there is little to see why this can not continue. Demand is easily there and they produce basically at a $1400/lb rate with the market somewhere around $2800-$3000/lb. So they have stupid margins on this stuff with demand through the roof and really very few viable competitors on that scale AND existing relationships with about 65% of the MA businesses licensed to sell. The stock is crazy cheap on an absolute basis for ANY type of business, including even melting ice cubes and cigar butt stuff but when you then put into perspective that this is a hyper growth market with surrounding states likely legalizing in the near future(especially if blue states get more blue next election), and I think it solely comes down to walking the talk so to speak. I get it, this is the most disgusting and vociferously contested optical investment known to man. The post deal SPAC. So it's absolutely astute of investors to heed that. And maybe this time it's not different. My one internal assessment of risk is that I attribute the expectation of certain traits...ie relentless volatility and price declines during certain expected periods, as things that support the "why the opportunity exists" question, but also, are characteristics of other totally unrelated but more malignant signs of a different thesis... but that's what makes a market. All I know is if they hit numbers next year, or even just top $100M in EBITDA, this should be at least a double. Whereas if they miss by 50% you still can kind of justify the current share price quite easily. I think it's really just about doing what they are saying and so far have proven that they can do. Once its been shown, fundamentals will be valued in a more traditional way. Until then it carries the skull and cross bones of the putrid post deal SPAC...

Almost doubled my position in AYR. Possibly the best risk/reward and margin of safety Ive seen in a very long time. Now trading at basically 2.5x 2020 adjusted EBIDTA. Buyback starts October 1st.

Sold the last of my FNMA common

Timing is everything(see today). If you're going to trade, rule number one is never give up a profit. Rule number two, if you make money too quickly, take it off the table before you become the victim of mean reversion.

Glad you made money my man, took half off the NFLX short as I do agree short term this might have played out. Longer term its still in trouble IMO. Rolled the proceeds into a small OPK short. This one is terminally ill and there is little that can save it.

Flipped some GRIF around $39 for JOE under $17

For starters on the triple net stuff, O and NNN are basically the models. In regards to the questions on performance in a recession/bad market, look at the above two during the market swoons going back a few years or check the tape the next time we have a 500 point selloff. They largely resemble and have bond like characteristics and an important metric to observe is % of investment grade tenants. I personally hate replacement value as a metric. It’s bullshit and I get skeptical of management teams that tout it as an excuse for an acquisition. Go check out the massive Toy R Us headquarters replacement cost vs actually sale price. It’s on a beautiful piece of land, but what the fuck do you do with buildings of that size when your only tenant leaves? Burn a lot of money repositioning it, that’s what.

I bought some Jan 2021's ranging from $50-$100 strikes. Its basically a 2-3 month trade idea. I think the lockup easily takes 25% off the share price. The thinking goes, yea... straight short you're paying 175% neg borrow which can be yanked at any time and the rate can and likely will go up. Shorter dated puts are insanely expensive and a sucker bet. 2021s that are out of the money that far are only pricing in time value. Ive got like 16 months til expiration and if 2-3 expire, there s still a whole lot of time value likely for those options which still have a good chunk of value whether the stock goes up, down, or sideways. But if I'm right, and we get a 20-30% or greater move down on lockup expiring(which really isn't much of a stretch given how some of these things trade, let alone if you follow what TLRY did)....we eat well.

Strolling through the grocery store today and noticed that now everyone has a plant based meat product out. Saw the news about Tim Hortons dumping BYND and didn't have a difficult time seeing others follow suit. This shit doesnt sell in a number of markets. This is Tilray 2.0, lockup expiration 6 weeks away. So I shorted the pig via buying some well out of the money, longer dated puts.

Bought some AYR from suckers who needed liquidity and thought a stock with a 15% spread was the way to go.

Debt and dilution +1031s

Two young kids are expensive enough and when your home runs on heating oil, you're always kind of "short" the market for that. Half of timing is just paying attention. A quarter is luck. The other quarter is overcoming that "voice" in every investor's(every sensible investor that is) head that says trading is bad. Or so I tell myself....

NVTA

Im not sure this serves a purpose though. I am aware of a few sites like Tim Sykes Profitly that supposedly allow people to publicly display their real portfolio moves. But doing so with an artificial portfolio is an absolute waste of time unless you happen to be a gifted trader/investor who likes to waste time and doesn't like to make money.

In some games, average is not enough to get you any points. In Investing, you can even win with average if you live long enough. But performance without a large population size of who is trying and what they are achieving in the aggregate is meaningless. And I don't think in investing this statistic is so easy to gather like census statistics. One of the greatest and most underappreciated pillars of investing is the notion that the most you can lose(generally speaking) is 100% of your investment. While the amount you can make is often many times that. The key to this is proper risk management, but its a truly powerful and liberating thing once internalized.

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250 gallons of heating oil for the home.