Gregmal

It is somewhat true. This past January I left NJ where I couldn't go to a restaurant or a reasonably expect to socialize publicly. Still mask central as well. A week later I was in FL bar hopping and dining out 2x a day with no restrictions. Not coincidentally, it was a mere week or two after inauguration when NY and Co started announcing reopening plans. There was certainly coordinated efforts to stunt things. How coordinated, I dont know. I didnt really care because where I live in NJ no one followed that stuff anyway and then I spent a lot of time in the South so it didnt effect me. But I just remember driving back and crossing into NJ on the turnpike and laughing because after getting totally back to normal then the first thing I see is a HUGE government sponsored billboard saying "traveling from out of state? Call xxxxxxx or text "ABC" to find out how long you need to quarantine"....and just being like "yea fuck this state". That said, relevant to this topic, covid poses no threat to the market, other than short term opportunity for people who arent scarped of a short term paper loss IMO. Its done and people still worrying about it and selling their stocks in fear of the next variant should just index or something. The threats to the market IMO are still rate and inflation related and this holiday season should give a good indication of where the consumer really stands. If we can bulldoze through this and then get some pricing relief into Q1 there may be some opportunities. Either way though I still think theres lot of shit masquerading around that is going to have a very hard time.

4 horseman with a weight toward the ones in locations that value freedom + JOE, ALCO, DIS. We already have the playbook here, and if the covid nonsense doesnt repeat, the dip is just a blip on the radar. If lockdowns happen again, something like JOE benefits, no reason for -8% today. Bring it covid queens.

And definitely agree on tax considerations. I know I’ve talked with a bunch of folks here about this recently, but if you have a lot of capital gains this year….I’ll just speak for myself actually…I’d rather have some big short bets on into end of year and pay less taxes than just do nothing or sell and generate more tax liabilities.

Hedging is so complex and not really one size fits all so it’s quite hard to really give a good answer. generally though I like 20-30% OTM VIX calls with 4-6 weeks of time in front of them. If I’m feeling extra bearish I’ll also add 40-50 strikes which are often had for next to nil. On top of that you can pick your spots with longer dated puts. Then layer accordingly. PLTR for instance I have $25 puts. AAL $25 and $10 strike. SPCE $10. It’s late and I don’t have time to get into the logic behind all but as you can see some you just want to mimic an outright short while other instances you are playing for a complete blowup. Happy and Healthy Black Friday to all!

China/Didi delisting rumors, China RE, next round of Covid variant hysteria, and earnings void + blackout periods…. Got VIX? Will be an interesting December

That’s been the point I’ve raised quite often with this stuff. Who really notices the incremental difference enough to warrant a waste of time calling and dealing with the provider(an experience that often times is downright awful)? Let alone paying more? I have Sprint and am fully aware how awful sprint is for phone service especially in my area. I have Optimum and they are mediocre too. But “awful” is what? Occasionally a dropped call or static for a few seconds or a couple seconds extra to load a webpage? That’s really not that big a deal and to me, not worth wasting time and money to change.

Got deez today as well

Yea whats kind of funny, in light of the content @LearningMachine mentioned, is that in the situation I shared with the fiber rollout at the HOA....the details werent exactly great and there wasnt much else given, but when people heard "fiber" it was met with a lot of "ooh, ahh, yes sign me up"... in relation to the current service, one word sold them on parting ways with $1200.

Lifestyles of the rich and famous eh? Could be worse. How many stories do we have to hear of these billionaire finance guys who abuse or beat the shit out of hookers in penthouse dungeons or secret mansions? Howie likes to play cops and robbers…to each their own lol

Am I misremembering or was Howard speculated to be part of some horseback riding border patrol group a few years back? Vaguely remember reading something about a wealthy guy and his buddies roaming around with night vision goggles and guns in Arizona or something like that.

I own a bunch of places within a community that was built in the 1980s. The area is/was very boom/bust. As a result there were literally only two internet options for decades. A shitty little local provider and Century Link. Both terrible. But people managed. A third company has started going in and soliciting down payments of $1200 which is refunded via first year's service credit once buildout is complete for the whole fiber network. About 1/3 of the community pre-registered(~150 population total). Interestingly enough, Optimum came in shortly after and bought out the local company that presented an alternative to CTL. Myself Ive lived on the shitty Sprint network for 15-20 years. Its not great but is so much cheaper than T and VZ that I have no problem dealing with occasional headaches from service issues. I need talk, text, and internet. So Ive never bothered to move and probably wouldnt either unless something severely drastic happened although Ive noticed over time Sprint has gotten better so theres that too. People talk about faster or cleaner service but I cant envision that to a degree that enhances my life enough to pay more for it. Maybe if I watched more TV but I dont.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3774056-average-monthly-rents-increase-slows-in-october-but-metro-areas-see-yy-jumps https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/october-existing-home-sales-hit-fastest-pace-january-81328263 LOL still waiting for those slow downs folks keep talking about. Seems when we say words like "stalling" or "lack of demand" we simply refer to month over month or year over year increases of mid single digits.....not real, actual lack of demand and/or prices cratering. These sort of trades are so fun because you know some folks have an agenda and an incentive to distort the narrative. Just like with inflation being transitory and oil prices having to come down, they lie, lie, lie, but the data is easy and obvious to read and the trades are often fish in a barrel.

@John Hjorth He basically lied/misrepresented/something-along-those-lines his having achieved such a silly qualification...

LOL The MBA fiasco! I totally forgot about that! Everyone fussing over whether its real or not....meanwhile in my head I'm like "wait, it says more to me in terms of his approach, that this guy thinks having an MBA is even worth bragging about in the first place!" Oh man.

Thanksgiving Bombergers

No opinion or anything to add on the above other than that its a great little gimmick, but congrats on the place!

Needham analysts Vincent Yu adjusts BABA price target from $330 to $230. Quite timely. Wonder how much this guy makes? EDIT: ZM too! Keybank $398 to $344, maintains overweight Guggenheim $370 to $300, maintains buy? Barclays $270 to $245 None of these guys had this "inkling"ahead of the stock falling off a cliff? Useless fools. Bet they all make over $150k a year too.

Agree with Spek. Having come into my investing heyday over the past 15 years, I was at various point quite fascinated by the idea of John Malone. Unfortunately, the ideas and stories are way more interesting then the current iteration. Is it another example of a guy who's process worked in one environment but not in another? IDK. He's a genius and deserves the praise, but I dont understand the infatuation from an investment perspective anymore.

ZM another predictable one goes down. And yes, there were people buying these last year because they were going to change the world.

Yea but then the question on the commercial and capital markets side is do you really need these dopes making mid 6 and 7 figures doing what is essentially advanced paper pushing? I’m currently working with a management company to secure a 7 figure loan for some needed projects at a planned community. Looking at 15-20 year loans. Spoke with a half dozen different banks and at each one I could write down on paper what their “commercial lending” guru looks and acts like. Not even the lame suits and purposely showy watches and whatnot, but just the predictable nature of what they’re all about. The “oh here comes the pitch in why this product is better LOL” stuff. And then thinking, this guy should be embarrassed to wear that watch. And OMG he makes what? And goes on 3-4 vacations a year? To do this? And the absurdity that 98% of people have zero shot at ever being considered for a job like his even though most would be able to do it just as well??? It’s one of the last remaining clubs out there but with all other margins getting squeezed I think it comes under pressure over the next decade. IBKR I also think does a good job highlighting how you can cut much of the fat on the capital markets side. Sooo much money gets wasted on fat and I think the reason so many of these places are so diametrically opposed to crypto and AI is simply because it Amazon’s their business and exposes how redundant most of them are.

Like take analysts for example, do you really need a high level education or a stupid CFA/MBA to wait for something to make a big move AND THEN use some elementary DCF based model to "Adjust" a price target to basically +/-20% of where the shares now trade? Does doing this really need to pay $150-200k? to do this? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3773445-hedge-funds-walk-away-from-peloton-amid-post-covid-decline-and-52-week-lows Short low, cover high, buy higher, sell low.... This shit is the biggest scam secret out there and its largely been hidden because its how friends/family in the gold old boys club keep wealth circulating. Like most family offices are basically wealth transfer schemes. Desk jobs at local banks are basically where the local RIA guys family friends work. Once the veil gets removed your aspiring college kids realize a 4 year education to ultimately do paper shuffling and deal with complaints about $35 overdrafts fees for $55k-65k is a joke. They are going to have to either start letting the burger flipper types do it or theres not going to be anyone left to do these jobs. To make up for it they're going to cut the absurdly paying boy's club jobs. Same is true with insurance agencies.

Thats probably more than enough for a lot of finance jobs in general LOL. I have never really gotten along with the finance professional types. Mainly because they are egomaniacs(or also lifelong dorks who now seek revenge on the world for not recognizing their master of the universe status until they started making big $$) who think that because they make a lot of money they are more important than everyone else. Take themselves too seriously and have a sense of entitlement through the roof. And for me, one of the first things I learned is not to respect someone just cuz they have money(or make a lot of money). Realistically, if you opened the doors to people without the "elitist" qualifications, you'd solve a lot of problems. I am not even kidding when I say this but I would wager big money that even the dudes who pump gas, many 20-30% of them, with some modest training, could do most of the financial industry jobs. They'd do it for less than 6 figures for sure. Or you could pay them what the Ivy Leaguers get if you desire. But theres a certain floodgate you open by doing it. I believe its coming. The lower rung jobs are a waste for qualified people. You dont need a 4 year degree to do half the finance jobs out there, let alone work at a bank and open accounts. The higher rung jobs are guarded like a secret society. Big tech now is more appealing if you're going to get screwed with long hours. Financial industry is going to be forced to change.

Then again a proliferation of ads like the one featuring this piker everywhere..... https://investingoutlook.co/wall-street-legend-strange-day-coming/?cid=MKT579436&eid=MKT582603

Yea it’s all quite strange and a huge and ongoing exercise in mental flexibility. It’s one thing when I buy stuff with the PYPL example(or Z) where it’s like “ok I’m ready for it to go down” but with stuff like GOOG or MSFT or BRK for instance you expect stability. It really feels like I am in the Matrix and Morpheus is offering me the red or blue pill and I’m trying to take 3/8 of the red pill along with 5/8 of the blue but still torn and uncertain but apprehensive LOL. I do think this time is “somewhat different” so relying on historical evidence is dangerous, but there is also just a common sense element here as well indicating it’s not “ALL” sustainable.

Yea....Im becoming very convinced this is happening soon. The average or worse tech stuff is straight up withering. I still fear letting go of my MSFT and GOOG but anything below that type of quality seems downright dangerous right now.