Gregmal

Yea I also wouldnt be fooled by the indexes just slowly grinding higher. A whole lot of the market has gotten utterly smoked. Just as going into 2021 shorting the ARKs was the way to go because it excluded the big tech behemoths, I actually think right now that if you are playing the next leg of this, the way to do so is actually OTM puts on some of the FANG type stuff. On a risk adjusted basis its kind of the AAA tranche type play. I am half-assedly doing it on a couple, but my expectations are not high; as long as I can cover my ass on the margined stuff and net out profit I'm good. Hedges arent typically meant to make money, theyre meant to provide freedom to still play ball. The problem with the rubbish tech is that the more it goes down the more expensive it gets to short. It was glorious shorting ARKK and ARKG last Q4 into Q1 cuz while everyone was mouthing off about them being ridiculous, no one had the balls to short them. Go look at the ARK threads. Recurring theme was, "(insert Cathy bashing, etc).... but I'm not short cuz you cant short this market"(LOL ironic right? psychology is a bitch, eh?). Now, its a totally different story. So its less attractive.

Whats happened with office is akin to letting people who have been married for a decade plus start having open relationships. At first, March 2020, it was weird. But the longer it goes on the more normalized it becomes and after awhile, everyone gets comfortable, sees its doable, and many probably even like it better this way. IMO office is forever changed/past the point of no return and theres going to be long term effects to this that arent fully yet appreciated. Of course, there are still obviously people who like going to the office, and folks who like ordering around minions from their corner offices...but enough of the foundation has cracked that the industry is going to need to make the new model work. And it will be painful for those reliant on the old model. At any given company there are probably only a handful of people important enough to be making the decision of whether workers have to be there or not. I dont want to play the game of guessing what theyre thinking, when they're thinking it, and in aggregate, when enough of them will get to the same conclusion. Given the situation in the labor market right now, they dont exactly have a lot of leverage and additionally having hiring flexibility via remote work may actually be more beneficial than sticking to the talent pool within 50 miles and competing with every other business in that radius as well. So you step back and its like...why would I buy an office REIT at a 5-6 cap when you can buy MF more or less in or around that same cap rate? Or SFH. Or industrial. Or grocery anchored shopping. There s a ton of shit thats good and will continue to work and then theres office, still stubbornly hanging in there on the cap rate side, so for me it s a pretty easy decision.

Here's my problem with office. Its not really a recovery trade. MF was/is awesome. You know what unlocked Sunbelt mania 2021? When those governors kept things open in summer of 2020. Contrary to popular belief, not EVERYONE just went back to bars and clubs and all that shit, but it let the people who wanted to, do it. Those people then allowed/encouraged everyone else to dip their feet back in the water. Then it was a tidal wave of folks realizing they could go back to life as they wanted to live it. The neat thing with the covid situation is that after everyone gets back to normal, its over. Vaccinated or not, everyone will get this thing. So people go out and are free and comfortable and I mean if their worst fears happen, generally speaking, if you're young/healthy/vaccinated, you get sick for a week or something and then! IT really is over and you're on the other side of all this. So you just need that momentum to build. Thats why NYC not shutting down this past 4-6 weeks(and assuming they dont for the next 4-6 weeks) is absolutely huge. It lets the real recovery begin, which is the mental one. Next year you won't even be having these convos and everyday folks won't even care about the next variant. Then people start going bonkers for all the stuff they were hesitant to do prior. Which is why I think the coastal MF stuff and the entertainment stuff, casinos probably too, are just going to kill it for 2022. Office though? NYC NEEDS office to truly be back. You know how many businesses suffered from other businesses not doing things like holiday parties and all that? Or the workers who get out at 5 and spend hours at the watering holes? The bankers going to the strip joints and the strippers who then buy fancy clothing at the expensive clothing stores? Office is a big component of the engine that drives NYC. And who really drives office? Makes the decisions? Signs the leases...A bunch of rich, live in a bubble, cover your ass centric, risk averse blowhards. MF is how you play the people coming back. I haven't quite figured out what or how the office play works. Because its not recovery and its not "the people" who make it work. Its the c-suite. And those act out of their own self interest and survival instinct, so its really hard for me to see what pushes THOSE people, to all of a sudden get driven to push people back in. Gorman at MS apologizing recently for pushing people back to the office IMO was one of the biggest negative things to happen recently for an asset class. It kind of sends a message to others who pushed for a return to take notice, sit down, and STFU.

Cliffnotes answer: so much that can go right and not a whole lot I see can go wrong. Longer answer: money flow drives everything. people with cash and bonds will continue to get itchy and antsy as inflation becomes real and unavoidable. BTC and the like have shown people are fine with Kuppys project Zimbabwe toaster analogy. Gold at least has a few thousand years worth of human psychology backing its relevance as a store of value. Ive watched it for a while now and despite its poor performance, it does react well to inflation related data. Basically Bitcoin with erectile disfunction type trading though. To me it seems priced as though the expectation is that it will trade the way it has for the past decade. But then you look at other commodity related stuff. Nat gas, uranium, etc. The cycle of demand+speculators+predictable endings can be spectacular. So, something like the Jan 2024 $155 calls look good. IMO something has to give soon here and the next 12 months should let you know if the trade is good or not. Too much stuff in the space; iron ore or lumber for instance, the companies there are spring loaded and trading at 1-3x earnings because of the expectation this will dissipate but will have no choice to move soon if it doesnt. So your upside takes care of itself and if gold does 10% a year you basically double your money. You dont have think too hard to see a scenario where gold could double or do something nutty either. Gold has shown it can also do well in bad markets. So you have oh so many ways to win. Whereas downside wise? IDK, say it goes down 10% in the next 12 months you still have a good amount of time value on the options so there's some downside protection as well if you structure the trade right. Your skew is good and upside very levered. On top of this I'll disclose that historically I have absolutely hated gold and thought it was worthless. I still do kinda(as in Id much rather invest in other stuff), but the setup is definitely there if you connect the dots.

Slightly ITM GLD leaps

If there was a skew that to me seemed unconditionally attractive it would be MSGE. AIV should work too. Thoughts on both are around here if folks wanna look.

That was pretty much all of 2021. Totally obvious, easy setups fueled by stupidity and people taking media and politicians at their word... Mr. Market was tipping his pitches all year long. So when they yell "boo, variant" or whatever the current Pavlovian dog bell is, you can either fall in line, or...

https://nypost.com/2021/12/24/cops-called-as-nyc-crowd-gathers-for-free-covid-19-tests/ LO-freakin L who’d have thought we get to a point in society where there’s riots cuz folks need a testing kit to tell them how they feel? My gosh it’s pathetic. imagine back in the day, going into work. me: Hey John, how are you this morning john: Good me: idk man, have you gotten tested lately? john: no, I feel good me: yea but how do you know, you haven’t taken a test lately… LOL again even Lebron is calling out the nonsense https://www.instagram.com/p/CX4GnUfP0um/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading

Weird how this whole stonks going up thing works. Almost like there’s some sort of rhyme or reason and thus predictability to it all….

Interesting. A lot of people(you can almost always pick them out of a crowd or judge them by their covers) make tremendous financial windfalls by finding the line that legally enables a fraud. Legally getting rich quick. Or at least, legally making a trade involving a small penalty in exchange for a big pay day. The financial world is filled with these folks. So is energy. The guys who pinch an extra digit selling energy to entities that pass through costs. Mortgage guys who know how to get a shaky app through or slip on an extra eighth. Stock brokers or advisers who know where you can offload those private placements...... Funny enough, my town, a nice, up and coming NJ suburban town, was developed in its early stages by two dudes. One had Enron money through a timely wedding, and the other part of a well orchestrated penny stock operation in the 90s. One never did a day of time, the other a small stint in the slammer and a lifetime ban but then emerged with enough wealth to buy and develop several dozen acres of waterfront land and never "really" work again.

Who doesnt love these headlines? https://seekingalpha.com/news/3783048-new-home-sales-miss-consensus-in-november-rising-124 Just like the Hedgeye chumps pushing their "sunbelt peak" thesis. Sorry folks. Gonna have to settle for 12% increases in sales and $10k increase in average price of a new home. Darnit. Time to buy some puts LOL.

Hahaha yea, no I agree theres some opportunity somewhere, I just have trouble seeing exactly the where and how of it, in terms of making money. These guys(pot companies) make O&G guys look like fiduciaries. Net lease cannabis REITs seem to have an edge, but even there, not sure I have the balls to do anything meaningful. IIPR has been a stand out.

LOL I dont EVER really buy these. Ive invested in two post deal spac in my life. AYR which got 4-5x out of before selling in high 30s and Fisker which was a quick momo trade. Otherwise the thought of owning these types of businesses disgusts me and I dont like to play with that sort of fire too often. Currently I have a few flyer warrants on YSAC. Otherwise, just stick to pre deal spac. Ironically there was a big group of Liberty shareholders who threatened to throw a temper tantrum because they thought the offer was unfair. They are lucky they got AYR stock huh? I just dont care for the "we need to grow at all costs" approach at AYR. For the exact reason now highlighted by the Liberty deal. Get your shit in order. Take your time. Execute. Allocate wisely with the focus on per share value. Fuck off with this "gold rush" sales talk. Gold doesnt grow with a few seeds, some sun, and a watering can.

I am not up to date on AYR but one of the problems I did have awhile, after selling out, was this….if you’re really executing on the business, and you believe your own numbers, you have no business making acquisitions instead of buying back stock. Everyone always has excuses, but it is very simple. If you trade at 2x EBITDA making acquisitions is a poor use of capital.

Merry Christmas and holidays indeed. Wishing everyone the best.

^thats why we're getting 2 caps in a neighborhood near you soon! j/k maybe, maybe not. wouldnt be shocked though.

Prem Watsa.

Pure gold.

There are a ton and many of high quality. Originally I thought of shit like ATUS but there is real solid stuff like PYPL, DIS, MSGE, and more. I actually like the idea @ERICOPOLY posted a while ago in another thread. Short puts on these and the use it to buy calls elsewhere. I've been doing some of that lately.

Yea so I was able to confirm if you bought a machine you get a full refund and get to keep it. Pretty sick deal. Only reason I can think of for this development is that perhaps the machine is massively defective and a warranty or repairs will cost more than just giving it to folks. The good news is if you still see one at the store, you can buy it and then get your money back.

There may be a value proposition here. Not positive but I believe they will be refunding the machine cost while allowing you to keep it. I’d totally dig that. Then just buy a few dozen sets of pods and be set. The big question is why? The machines sold like wildfire. Perhaps the pods were duds? They are pretty expensive. I personally thought it insane they sold beer and cider pods at $4-5 each when you could go buy a 6 pack for a few bucks more. Or perhaps some potential liability issues? Quite bizarre.

^very good and valid points. I would chip in that the difference is that those arrogant "value" managers KNOW that theyre right and that Cathy is wrong! LOL. Despite the fact that she's probably both made more money than they have, grown from the ground up a bigger business than they have, and also probably still, produced better returns. The finance world is full of arrogance little clipboard and excel warriors. Which goes back to your final point...being on the right side of the trade is all that matters.

https://nypost.com/2021/12/16/nyc-lockdown-in-question-amid-rising-covid-19-cases/ Sink or swim NY….your choice. Do you want to continue experiencing the robust recovery the lower part of the US has already experienced or you wanna be like those idiots up North who are now back to banning fans from hockey games? Make your bed, lay in it.

I don’t like being short anything more than 6 months out. Not even puts on shit I want to own at strikes I like. Respect the fact that short term the future is somewhat easy to predict but the long you agree to be on the hook for something the greater the odds are a black swan can bite you in the ass.

Yea I think you can be careless shorting the junk here. Top is in. Ive been putting on ITM puts with 12-24 months duration on some. Like $25 PLTR puts with 24 expiration, stuff like that. You have a skew where finally it seems it makes sense to be short because the momentum has shifted. I think simply maintaining current share price on stuff like ZM or TDOC is wishful thinking. Seems somewhat asymmetric in a non asymmetric way if that contradiction makes sense. One of the greatest fallacies in the market is that "its down 50%" means its a bargain. Could easily see some of those go down 90% from the top. Or completely bust. I'm also exploring triple A tranche type shorts more so as big crash hedges. Like higher quality Nasdaq 100 stuff. But the problem I see is that the FANGS are just really good companies and dont rely on debt at all. So the "inflation" argument doesnt really apply nearly as much as it does to these cash burning debt/capital market reliant turds. If AMZN or AAPL aint worth 40x then why is COST or WM? Thats an interesting question Im grappling with. I DO think 30-40x is OK for best of breed businesses because the world is going to be looking for places to put worthless cash and with the X-ing out of many crapcos, there will be even fewer legitimate options.