Gregmal

Yea....SAM is basically a value short. I am typically against these, however cash is trash and I want to remain invested in ideas I think are compelling on the long side. So I'm looking for a lot of "if this, then that" ideas. If this is bad economically, then that happens. SAM is a good shot at downside protection, if things go south. Either via sales declines or multiple contraction.

Shorted some SAM. If we're in for a world of hurt, fake craft beer and summer beach seltzer's probably arent at the top of peoples shopping lists. Nonetheless, all time high...

Handshaking is not a issue for you in the short term? Probably prefer the chest bump personally...

Swapped a smidge of FRPH into ESRT.

As a real estate junky, ESRT looks like its got a lot of free call options at this valuation. Tremendously positioned on the balance sheet side of things as well. No major maturities for a while either.

Ive done a little bit here and one easy way to avoid many of the headaches is to mandate a cosigner and look for folks who have their expenses paid for by others, IE parents or grants, etc. That isn't to say you won't have problems. Definitely will have your fair share of drywall repairs and broken windows, but thats not too bad when mom and dad guarantee the repair at a 30% markup! Its like allowing pets with residential. First thought is that it ruins the floors and makes the unit stink. But once you realize you can charge 5% more per month, charge one time pet fee, take an extra security deposit, and more or less make back the cost of a new floor(typically carpet) in 18-24 months plus ALWAYS have a fully paid for thorough deep cleaning when the pet lover exits... its a good problem to have.

This is one I am unsure about too. Th NY antibody study with a 21% positive rate in NYC let’s me believe, that there will be too many active cases to prevent further spreading regardless of what we do with test and trace. The testing is probably capacity is probably 2 order of magnitude too lower to test most people if we open the economy, which we have to do no matter what, before the vaccine is a factor in 18 month (best case). So in opinion this means that we go down the path of heard immunity, at least in bigger cities, but most likely everywhere unless we constrain movement between states or even cities for 18 month. Now heard immunity or vaccines may or may not even exist or be feasible, but no matter, virtually everyone just isn’t get the virus in this case sooner or later. I would like hear different viewpoints on how we still contain this using test and trace from out current starting point of test capacity and the likely opening of the economy in May or early June. Also, I would like to hear if anyone thinks that schools can be closed for 18 month. Opening up a school (which can be staggered into kindergartens, elementary school etc) will simultaneously expose a large number of people to the virus and most likely create a significant spike in cases, no matter how we do it. Can we keep them closed? Should we? I don’t think we can, but others may have a different viewpoint. If schools opened, would you send your kid to school? This is an interesting cog IMO. Many people need schools to be open in order to go back to work. They certainly, after weeks/months of financial drain, dont want to be paying for daycare. How many of those people dont feel comfortable sending their kids back to school even if it is an option? The number is greater than zero and could contribute to the slow reopening. Do you set up a nurse with a thermometer next to the metal detectors as kids enter?

Can you name your top 3-5 that fit this description? Sorry!. Do your own DD SD All for keeping illiquid ideas to yourself, but I find it odd that you won’t throw out at least one name. Where are these mythical best of breed companies cutting their dividends and trading at prices which will allow for a double or tripling to normalization? Could care less. You have a brain, use it ;) SD The ACWI quality index is down 15% through March 31 and many large cap US tech stocks are up year to date. In using my incapable brain, I am unable to identify “a great many” of “best of breed” companies that fit your description (or one for that matter). I can only conclude that you either A) are much better at sourcing ideas (hence my request for examples) B) have a different definition of “best of breed” C) are making a statement not based in fact Or maybe my brain just doesn’t work. You could probably narrow down candidates. Scan for anyone, period, who's cut a dividend between, say 2/1/20 and now. Scan should only include companies that still pay dividends and maybe extend the search range from the 50-67% SD mentioned, to 40-80% cuts. Out of that entire universe, these best of breed would have to be in there, if they exist. At first I thought his do you own DD was a tongue in cheek reference to Dupont, but it doesnt fit the profile either. If I had to make an educated guess, SD is probably referring to some energy companies. Runner up guess would be mortgage servicers. The former I have little interest in, the later may be something special as servicers IMO have a much easier path to "return to normal" than oil stocks.

A bit of cherry-picking. In the same thread: Nostromo26 "Why did you stop plotting deaths on the 20th? Daily deaths haven't gone down since then. Here's a chart updated through 4/25." But regardless, this model predicts that the number of deaths would be close to 0 by July... I guess we will start counting deaths like China at that point. This is whats known as straw grabbing from Dalal "I commit to nothing" Trump. Notice his primary information source has now shifted down "the curve", going from the almighty and highly reliable Twitter to Reddit! Another interesting data point Italy- population 60M, cases 195k, deaths 26k NYC- population 8M, cases 155k, deaths 12k Rest of US- population 320M, cases 800k, deaths 42k So maybe the fear peddling Dalal at the least needs to revise his model in order to hope next time to "be like Italy" rather than the negative implications continuously drawn about "being the next Italy". As the facts show, NY is really the only massive, massive, negative outlier. Perhaps Dr. Dalal should spend more time doing this job and less time worrying about playing politics on message boards...

Well, I was curious to see if it was defended, or denied. Why do we need proof to label Biden a rapist but we dont for Trump? Funny how that works isn't it? Otherwise, without the burden of proof, I think a rational man can see both are similar. Trump is just the abusive, entitled boyfriend who constantly cheats and views women as possessions. Biden is the creepy best friend whom she runs to as the "shoulder to cry on" when abusing entitled bf hurts her. Gladly letting her cry on his shoulder as he looks down her shirt and gets semi hard from the female attention, wishing all along he was the bf who gets all the ass. They are both clearly dirtbags when it comes to women. Trump inherited dads fortune, Joe spent his life taking from taxpayers. They both spent(and spend) 90% of their time misleading people and promising things they knew they may or may not be able to deliver in order to get what they want. Both have entitled dipshit kids living off dad's reputation. To be fair, at least the arrogant and entitled Trump kids seem otherwise pretty ok. I've known a ton of kids like that and believe me, they can turn out a lot worse then just being rich airheads and pompous douches....they turn out to be...like Hunter Biden.. I hope they have the debates. It will be absolutely glorious seeing these two go at it. There are many similarities.

Isn't it clear by now that theres so much speculative information out there that folks can literally draw whatever conclusion they want by piecing together all these conflicting sources and "expert" opinions? Pick a side, any side, and regardless, theres enough out there to equally support the exact opposite stance. Face masks are good. Face masks are bad. Virus only hits old people. 50% of patients in country XZY are young people. This will be the Spanish Flu. This will be the flu. Gilead's drug works. Gilead's drug doesnt work. China did a horrible job. China did a great job. Its kind of silly. The more pressing question of the day....how many of you moral higher ground folks who are repulsed by Trump plan on voting for Biden the rapist? Just when you thought the DNC couldn't come up with a worse candidate than Hillary....At least Hillary had the semi cool Robin Wright House of Cards thing and the "I'm a strong women who whipped my rapist husband into shape" thing going for her. Turns out Biden is basically just a pussy version of Trump.

Yea private equity is the ultimate play on free/cheap money. It may end badly for them, but it will undoubtedly be worse for all others involved. These guys are wizards when it comes to extracting value for themselves then pass the hot potato. Often leaving businesses doomed for bankruptcy, the employees then unemployed, and the retail investors who bought the IPO two years ago wiped out... just how it works

You left out the last part... "Sincerely, Rachel Maddow P.S. Dont be fooled that I look like a middle school boy, or that I appear to be a television personality. I am actually a world renowned epidemiologist and pandemic expert, not just another loudmouth liberal pretending to be something I am not on Twitter."

https://nypost.com/2020/04/24/georgia-set-to-reopen-some-businesses-despite-rebuke-from-trump/ People going out!

Personally Ive been disappointed with the overall availability of veal scallopini. Have been settling for pork.

Haha I saw this. Still waiting for someone to find some fine print saying "paid for by Phillip Morris"

You guys are really fucked in US if this is the typical attitude of a non Trump supporter. Start a civil war, already. Eh I dont think it really is. Theres some jurgoffs here and then, on both sides, the ones that always make the news rallying in Charlottesville or assaulting cops, but the majority I think have a common ground of discontent with establishment politicians, the same end goal/objective, but just different political leanings which in the current environment prove quite irritable to each other given the constant news flow and propaganda. Like a never ending mosquito bite.

I want honesty & not bullshit. Outside of blowing up the entire system, this is impossible. Every generation of politicians seems to have to play dirtier than the previous. Social media only upped the ante. No better way to destroy the importance of context and content than limiting blurbs to 160 word soundbites and 3 sentence gotcha zingers.

Once again, the loonie left is so wrapped up in their derangement, they miss a completely inarguable and blatantly legitimate criticism... Trump is now CRITICIZING Brian Kemp for opening too soon! A week after lambasting governors for not opening! Much more valid than all these... "hmmm if I take this out of context statement, and throw this! spin on it, it looks really bad!" rhetoric

Im just curious how those that claimed Trump fucked up big time and that the US was destined to be as bad or worse than Italy, now still sing that tune when the only state that looks like Italy, is....

everyone like dalal has been quoting a mortality rate of 3-4% for covid, Don't misquote me. dont have to dipstick. your hubristic pronouncements are all over this thread LOL quote him? He refuses to commit to anything. He's been caught lying and called out for retroactively editing the substance of his posts. He rushed to judgment based entirely off of emotions and politics inspired hatred as he misinterpreted Twitter quotes as facts and declared victory and rewrote narratives based on misinformation and preconceived biases, that manifested over a couple weeks. Now, as time has passed on real information, real facts have presented themselves, he stands alone and ashamed, hoping only to again revert to not owing anyone anything and disowning the narratives that he shouted from the rooftops but never actually committed to....

I find it amusing how everyone wrote off orthopa after a couple days worth of fear driven Twitter posts and bs models. Within a few weeks he was largely mocked. And now all the data is seemingly validating what he said. The notion that there were significantly more cases than testing implied, and that the rise of testing coincided with the rise is confirmed cases, was, or should I say, should have been common sense. Oh well

Well researched to whomever noted the options activity and bs-factor on the GILD study last week.

Shorted some OPK

Killing people passively is far easier to take than killing them aggressively. People were going to die here, regardless. Which is why everyone was in between a rock and a hard place. Its why many countries delayed, because the choice was not easy. But it seems many took the gutless approach...passively via economic suicide, akin to tossing a living person off a boat without a life raft in the middle of the ocean and driving away while they are still alive, vs, dealing with the repercussions of "you didn't lock down the economy and a bunch of old people died as a result of getting the virus"... we are continuing to see that the elder and at risk will die regardless, but now the economy is hitting hard all people, from infant to elder in its effects.