Gregmal

People give great weight to what they see and think today. Do you know how many people who swore Amazon or Netflix where overvalued in 2012-2015 became dip buyers on those names in 2018 onward? What was truly insane was looking at institutional filings for 2019 Q3 and Q4. Basically FANGM for everyone.

Got some GRIF(new ticker for super levered inverse etf) under $30.

Why? What exactly did they do wrong? Let’s jack up the Capex on all of these companies so the already razor thin margins in the airline industry tighten even more and increase prices putting air travel back out of reach for the average American. The issue is 2008-09 is still fresh in many people's minds. Lots of ordinary people lost everything in the housing crash. Lots of big corporations got bailed out. Same thing looks to be happening again. Warren feels the scale is tipped too much one way. Lots of voters agree with her. I don’t disagree that lending should be sparingly and stringent. But you cross a line when you start mandating wages etc. There are simply better ways to structure this. They would be mandating wages if they take the offer. They don't have to take the offer. That's fair. The executives have "compensation consultants" to help them make more. Employees don't have that. You have to level the playing field. That’s not leveling the playing field. That’s straight up intervention and beyond. The business was fine before the pandemic. If you want to say “keep more cash on hand because next time you’re not getting a bailout” fine. Are you going to make that same mandate for every small business across the country? Ridiculous. The ordinary people that would bitch about a bailout would be the casualties. Retail/hospitality/airline/small business. Its not bankers and mortgage brokers this time.

A little HHC at the close.

I think staying with reasonably or better capitalized companies in necessary industries will pay off. Not that it has stemmed my losses. GRBK well below book, PCYO no debt and big moat on top MSA, FRPH, GOOG and the FANGS. MSG + MSGN, basically moats, trophy assets, or cash cows already at cheap multiples. The world will go on.

Man what a day. Wondering if Donald is signing todays intraday chart? "I'm not responsible".... Bought FRPH, DD, CTO, MSG, PCYO, BRK, HTL, and small GOOG add

Hmmm...Canada does have an advisory against international travel, does have recommendation for self quarantining for 2 weeks post international travel, doctors have been requested not to travel abroad so that they can be present to help treat, governments have mandated that schools be closed in New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario & Manitoba, there is no formal entertainment going on - restrictions on gatherings have been placed...@ the grassroots level in Canada I find no one is shaking hands, meetings are being cancelled, there is alcohol based sanitizer everywhere.... Hospital capacity is what it is. However there are plans in place for closing OR's and turning them into ICUs if necessary. Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates, government has issued liquidity. Overall, from what I can see Canada is doing an exemplary job. But US has all the things that you’ve listed and then even more and everyone here is saying the US response is botched and they’re just waiting for Italy to happen so...?? Well, I think anyone with some observatory skills can tell you why that is.

Can he turn it upside down and add 4,000 points to the accelerated move and date it from his original address?

Same here. I have lots of family in the medical field. A week ago the consensus was that no one knew anything and there was no plan. This week every one of them stated there were meetings, training courses, and contingency plans brought up.

Not I today, but had some family up and after some general market small talk helped my 22 year old brother make his first ever stock purchases. 1 share of GOOG and 5 shares MSG.

ZM has gotten a massive boost from this short term hysteria. There are many, many other, much shittier companies with no real operations and tons of future expected losses, that would be significantly better short targets.

Looking forward the next "major news" announcement at 3pm. Another opportunity to sell the news.

This. When I started out, I was basically doing short only. It is an entirely different animal, in every aspect, than any other investment type or strategy. But it teaches you more than I think anything else does, because you literally have to consider EVERYTHING. Fundamental, technical, costs of carry+timing, game theory, incentives and behavioral influence, accounting, etc. You're basically forced to connect dots and then make predicative, catalyst based sell/cover decisions.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/sophie-gregoire-trudeau-wife-of-canada-pm-justin-trudeau-tests-positive-for-coronavirus.html This has been here for much longer than people think.

Not today, but I still don’t think beyond meat should be selling for more than $4.99

In my experience, the bottom is when you are so thoroughly fed up and disgusted with stocks that you no longer have any desire to look at them, let alone buy them.

How long did that take?

S&P500 is down 25% now since Feb 19th. The problem with all the cash guys is they sit around dancing and proclaiming how right they've been for sitting on a pile on 1.2% yielding USD for the past decade but remain too negative to know an opportunity when they see one. Yes, congrats you're 80% in cash when the market falls 25%. As you have been since 2012. And now the market gets back to 2016 levels, and you're still thinking it needs to get back to 2010 in order to invest again...

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic. 45% of the people in the US think he is a god... At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing. Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating). Here is one of 100 examples from just the past week: When he spreads his misinformation people listen to him and this hurts local efforts. FYI, do you think Trump calling the Governor of Washington State a snake was helpful? Did that help Republicans in Washington State get behind the Governors requests? No. That matters. Honestly, maybe its just me(always possible) I think he's lost a lot of credibility. The same reasons the market sells the news with him now, I think a lot of people, even his supporters, understand this. Of course just local observations, but Im in Trump country, and theres big macho men rushing up to the hand sanitizers at Home Depot. My larger point is that I think people, even in a lot of the extreme cases, have begun discounting a lot of things with the guy. The awareness is the preventative, not some guy with little back ground on the subject talking about how a scientist recently told him he would have been a great doctor...

Greg, i could not disagree more about Trump. This guy is a control freak. And an image freak. And he has really bad judgement. People who disagree are punished. He has surrounded himself with yes men. The US response is severely handicapped. He sets the tone for the whole response and he is toxic. 45% of the people in the US think he is a god... At the top sure. But from what I’ve seen that states are basically ignoring him and moving ahead and even somewhat surprisingly, companies are taking the initiative as well. Trump is only so powerful. He is a figurehead. Which worked until it lost confidence. Cuomo the other day basically said, they don’t care what Washington is doing. Death rates, ex the nursing home, aren’t that high. If, and this is a big if, there have already been cases for months, I think that’s a pretty good indication that at least for now, it’s more manageable than what we see in Italy. I think we will have a microscope on Hanks and the basketball player. Two small cases but having a spotlight on how these unfold could be a little reassuring(or devastating).

I think this will ultimately be an effort that succeeds or fails because of action(or inaction) at the local levels. Trump literally has nothing to do with this. He is not capable of really impacting anything any more than he does when he whines about the Fed. He s just a mouthpiece who behaves in a predictable way. Most states immediately declared state of emergency, Trump has yet to do so. People I think are conflating Trumps actions with the responses. Sprinkle in a little media narrative and social media effect, and its easy to see how people think this is Italy. But on a local level, I think the work has been solid. And I again say this giving credit to politicians like Murphy and De Blasio, guys I generally think are shleps. Some stuff is just preposterously priced right now. Other stuff, not so much. But thats almost always the case.

Why not just quietly accumulate GOOG and MSFT?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see. Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media. 8) For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US? So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy? Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end". I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable? In speaking with friends in NYC/SF/Sea it seems like cities are mostly shut down. HOwever, if you look at pretty much any other city, it's as if nothing is happening. I suspect I'll be told to work from home a week from now, but everyone's in the office, and traffic was just as bad today as any other day. Net of it, I don't think most people are as educated nor have most of middle america gotten the message... Eh its hard to tell. I live in suburbia, not too far from rural, manly man, big beard, F250, blue jeans and timberland boots towns. Theres sanitizers at every store and even those guys are making a concerted effort to be hygienic. Hopefully all folks are. Given where things, market wise have escalated, I just cant see how the current reality correlates unless things severely accelerate, which of course is always a possibility. To me, the current numbers, context, and things mentioned by folks like orthopa kind of seem to indicate this is further along than everyone realizes, and a lot less severe. Even the big case in NJ about the "perfectly healthy 32 year of physical assistant" having "severe" problems? Oh, yea, its just came out he was a chronic vaper... I've taken off all my hedges.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dont-panic-says-us-woman-recovered-coronavirus-055155667.html Was I a bit early maybe? This was about a week ago. We will see. Ill be sure to check back and quote this when we get a similar narrative above in the media. 8) For an uneducated opinion, this is reasonable. But how do you reconcile with what is happening in Italy? And given how quickly things went out of control in Italy, why don't you think the same thing will happen in the US? So on the other side, what is the outcome if we arent like Italy? Putting some more of this into perspective, in late 2018, the market suddenly fell 20%, for NO REASON whatsoever. Sure everyone has their hind site reasons why, but there was absolutely nothing that changed to warrant that one. Here you have this big scary boogie man plague, the likes of which we've supposedly never seen before, and every financial guy with or without a spread sheet saying "I dont know" and getting quoted, sometimes in context, but a lot of times out of context, as "this is the end". I mean the only thing thats really changed this week, is that basically everything is shutting down even though numbers are significantly lower than where other countries were when they decided to do so. Theres a lot of political narrative driving this. not to condone the job Trump has done. I dont think he's done or even responsible for anything, so grandstanding and trying to take all the credit is preposterous. But how hasn't the approach, especially by local guys I'd normally call hack jobs, such as in SF, WA, and NYC, anything short of commendable?

small adds to DD, MSG and reasonable size add the BRK. Use that cash Warren