Gregmal

You can play the games if you do it intelligently. I am surprised MLB didnt use the bubble. I have no doubt the NBA and NHL will finish the season. Baseball is questionable, but the one you are very likely to see get cancelled is the NFL. Not only no bubble, but the amount of contact should make it nearly impossible. Let alone the fact that I cant really think of another league with more players who display regularly that they have poor judgment and no self control.

The individuals are definitely fucking this up. Trump has just been encouraging them from a position of authority and a wide reaching audience. Also, Trump being president is in a position to make decisions that positively or negatively impact tens of millions (if not hundreds). Any decision made by an individual is likely limited to directly impacting a handful of people. So individuals are making poor decisions that impact tens of people and Trump has been making terrible decision that impact tens of million of people. A baseball player(or any athlete) breaks protocol to go to a strip club(already happened). Then gets the virus. Forget even the whole "exponential growth" thing that many have continuously brought up. This immediately effects way more than "tens of people". Multiple players and personnel get it. It gets so bad, the season has to be cancelled. How many lives and dollars does this "one person" effect? What about the fringe prospect who's 28 and is at a make or break point in their career only to have the season get canceled? How about normal people, someone with symptoms who still goes to a supermarket? Teenager going to a beach party and then coming home to the family? There are indeed big ripple effects. There is a lot that is in ones control, and a lot that isn't. What is easier for YOU to control? Again, I totally agree about a lot of Trumps actions, or lack there of. But you also now are seeing the result of the people who have spent years crying wolf. They used up all their credibility complaining about Russia, the election, Ukraine, Ivanka's tweets, etc...

Exhibit A https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29572885/sources-mlb-commissioner-warns-shutdown-players-do-better-job-managing-coronavirus So after tons of planning, consultations with health officials and experts, 113 pages of protocol, the players are simply not listening. Trumps fault? Governors fault? Manfred's fault? Individual responsibility and accountability is just not everyone's cup of tea it seems. While everyone seems to have a big time opinion on Trump, why nothing for the individual? After all, I'd wager some pretty big pesos that I have a better chance of meaningfully determining whether I get sick than any politician. As do you. So....if its "impossible" not to blame the federal government, is it not doubly impossible not to blame individuals given they have greater control over THEIR situation? Greater control over whether or not they wear a mask or get a vaccine... Or would this simply be wading too far into impactful conversation fodder?

Well, let me ask you then, you had the chance to vote for Romney in 2012, and actually had he won, Trump would never have gotten into office. Did you? I doubt it. If you did, then at least you are consistent. If you didnt, the "I wouldn't mind Romney" stuff is just half measure fluff to veil partisanship. As fake as all the "he was a great person" stuff you see when a person who lived an otherwise unsavory life passes away tragically. Nobody can say, "yea he was a scumbag"(even if it's true), the same way most cant say "I will always vote down ballot"(even if its true). Otherwise, yea, Trump does a lot of boneheaded stuff and caters to headlines and "his base" more than act Presidential. But this isn't news and as I ve consistently said, I think if you guys really believe a lot of what you write, you are sadly mistaken because by and large, Trump, as well as pretty much every politician Ive ever come across, gets a whole lot more credit(both good and bad) than they really deserve. They are largely hollow, leech like figureheads. I dont think Trump is a leech, he has enough money. He's just an attention whore and an egomaniac. But most politicians arent rich and only become so by being a leech.

Does this have retard potential? https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/soc-telemed-to-merge-with-healthcare-merger-corp-301102426.html Ive noticed "some" favorable setups in the "potential retards". You'd again have to think some of the SPAC's present favorable setups with the NAV backstop and leverage in warrants. You also have to bring yourself to buying things that arent typically the preferred cup of tea. Certainly not for everyone. And certainly have to be willing to gamble and therefor allocate responsibly. I'd highlight the obvious risks, especially known to SPACs...such as, from the release... TJ Carella, Managing Director at Warburg Pincus, said, "We are excited to join forces with the HCMC team and to continue our partnership with SOC in delivering value to its many customers." Amr Kronfol, Managing Director at Warburg Pincus, added, "We are very grateful to Paul for his leadership of SOC and believe that Steve and John are well positioned to drive the company forward in this next phase of its growth."

Except for that fact that, many people, including me, have acknowledged Trump's actions have been poor in many cases. What you're leaving out is your glaring neglect of any other facet or shared "blame", because it doesnt fit the agenda. Somehow, in an effort to highlight how much society has degraded in terms of its reliance on "credible sources", we've gone from "Wikipedia isn't a great source" to now Twitter being the primary go to for many.... I'm fine being political, Im fine being "apolitical". Same cant be said for everyone, most of them will likely disappear for good when the new site launches in September. You cant possibly claim to not have an agenda, when 90% of what gets posted has the same undertone to it. You also cant sit here and seriously make the case "government should have encouraged masks earlier, its the only vaccine we have", and then out of the other side of the mouth make the claim "I won't get a vaccine because of the government". Its also not incredibly hard to see that many people, in many states, won't listen to the government, whether federal, state, or local, regardless. This has held true in every state from Texas and Florida, to NY and NJ. You guys who want to harp on about the Federal government, continue to selectively highlight narrative fitting talking points, and ignore others. For instance, please explain to me, how the federal government is in anyway responsible for what happened at the Chainsmokers concert in the Hamptons? Or young people flocking to beaches and bars in Florida? So no its not strange that "all the guys who would like this to be "apolitical"....that aint me. Pick your game and I'll play. Just please at least have the credibility to admit you are playing the game!

Well, we had an inflection point with this thread around late February. Efforts were made at first to remain objective, but then once it became clear Sanjeev had no interest in keeping this non-political, it became fair game to shoot back at all the liberal propagandists. Off the rails it went, indeed. Lets not pretend its one sided though. HCQ has become a battleground issue...no idea why. NY deaths were Trumps fault. Florida and Texas were out of hospital capacity "any day now", almost 2 months ago... along with their death rates supposedly going to match NY/NJ's "in two weeks", for months now. Most sensible people know most of the narratives on both sides are bullshit, but if thats the game thats going to be played out here, so be it.

Bought some GLDD. May write it up later. Very interesting company. Turn around story, high barriers to entry, lots of free call options on various businesses/developments, including global warming.

Yeah, every time we have a crisis, everyone says "plummet" "spirals out of control" "slammed". In the Queens residential rental market. We got down to about 50% rent collection in April from the chatters that I had with people. Many of the tenants are restaurant employees. But by July, they are getting close to 80-100% rent collection. Obviously, smaller # of units equals big fluctuations. But if you talk to enough people, the overall numbers tend to be meaningful. The things that worries me is the crime. Simply put, if a cute 22 year college grad is afraid to move to NYC because she feels (doesn't matter if it's true or not) unsafe, then we have a problem. The key is the perception not the actual stats. If that cute 22 year old don't want to move to NYC, then the companies have no reason to set up shop there. That's a real spiral. This is why I worry about DeBlasio. The only time that I have really seen the US Housing Market get SLAMMED was during 08/09. It really got slammed. Simply put, people could not afford the mortgage. It was ludicrous. If you have 20-30% equity in your RE and you can service the debt, you will do everything you can to hold onto it and keep chugging on. In RE, the transactions happen because either you can no longer pay your mortgage or your bank force you to sell. No one sells RE in the private market by saying "hmm, this looks a little rich, let me sell and re-deploy into some other liquid asset class. I don't mind paying cap gains and depreciation recapture as well." Depreciation Recapture is a bitch. As I have gotten older, I have come to appreciate how much inertia there is once you have kids and wife. Man, I don't make the most rational decision anymore on a purely financial basis. Rule number one, keep the Mrs happy. Rule number two, listen to the Mrs. Rule number three, pay attention to the future needs of your kids. Rule number four, don't forget these 3 rules and verbally communicate to the Mrs. that those are your top priorities. Rule number five, now you can think about what you want. Branching off your point about crime, I have a life long friend who was always a bit of a suburb/country guy. Carpenter by trade. Vowed his ambition was to buy a decent plot with a small house and a huge garage with a loft in a rural part of NJ/PA. Then he met his wife, who was a typical suburb girl. Needed to go get the "live in NYC/Hoboken" right of passage out of her system, and he got dragged along. Both worked in NYC so at least it was convenient. They have a 1 year old as well. Turns out that the BBQ shooting that killed the infant in Brooklyn was on their street. They went to their landlord the following week, negotiated a breaking of their lease, and are moving back to the burbs. I share your concerns about the effect of crime, although I have for awhile, well before this outbreak. On the leasing/collections side, at least in terms of CRE, I've gotten significantly more comfortable lately as the results have rolled in and figures solidified a bit. The doomsday situation IMO was current leases being broken and huge numbers of insolvencies or properties flooding the market. This is clearly not happening. As long as we continue to see CRE tenants paying their rent, the best players, with strong balance sheets and good properties, will be quite OK.

More generally, I think it is a mistake(mentally) how everyone always assumes, everything needs to "plummet", "get slammed", "crash", etc. There are so many of variable outcomes in between the goal posts of the situations entirety, thats ridding yourself of that knee jerk panic reaction is usually helpful. What Ive seen in the markets I follow(blue, high tax, NJ/NY) is the same as has been occurring for awhile. Insatiable demand for sub $500k SF, above that price point it gets a little trickier, although there has been a bit of uptick in demand there as well.

LEAP is just a longer dated option. Can be in or out of the money.

Yet....we continuously see some folks quoting mouthpieces on Twitter.....who dont even have the credentials of... you know, MD. Further, this lady has a crazy theory, whatever. People are fine to judge her on that. Same with Kyrie Irving thinking the Earth is flat. But its downright stupid to say that "everything else they say is invalid" because of it. Its just a stupid tactic liberals use to discredit people. I can learn about medical subjects from a doctor with outlandish or otherwise crazy views; I can learn about basketball from Kyrie....tolerance of opposing viewpoints/beliefs for the win! Except rb, who must really be genuinely concerned about all those rabid Trump sheep dying from coronavirus HCQ....

That's not really how we're supposed to do medicine and drugs. There's a reason why we bother with all those pesky drug trials and have prescriptions and stuff. These are not sugar pills. Drugs also have side effects and can be dangerous. I have yet to hear of a dream catcher side effect. That's why promoting wrong drugs is dangerous and irresponsible. People will seek those drugs. Doctors are supposed to be the gatekeepers but in many cases they just fold. That's how people were able to get huge amounts of oxy and kill themselves. Oh right and just cause the promotion comes from a buffoon doesn't make it any less harmless. After the disinfect yourself with bleach press conference there was a remarkable number of people that actually drank bleach. BLEACH! And there is a process. You need a prescription. But HCQ is still not a banned substance. So there's that.

So if it doesnt work, and you dont see a valid argument for it, why continue to get so worked up over it? No one is forcing it down your throat...Conversely, if someone else seems to think it has a benefit, they should be able to do as they wish. Same way some weirdos have dream catchers or other trinkets they ascribe some sort of value to. Are you really this intolerant of everyone else's opinions and beliefs? Stop "pretending" to be concerned about the "health" of people you clearly possess such disdain for. We all know you guys love blabbering on about it simply because you feel every time you do, that you're "really showing Donald!".... let it go.

It is kind of strange how invested some people seem to be in proclaiming HCQ as either effective or ineffective.

To each their own. Different people have different priorities. I remember relating tremendously to the section of the HBO doc on WEB when his wife was telling the story about bringing up the pot when she was sick. Sometimes, when you are a deep dive person, the lights are on, but mentally you're just somewhere else. But personally I'll never understand not doing everything you can to be there for your kids. After a certain point, money becomes meaningless. Its hard not to judge people who spend their whole lives rabidly in pursuit of it to the cost of many of the "finer" things in life. I would never trade the opportunity to experience certain things on my own terms for any amount of money. From time to time I get offers to go work for people in the city or at an office. While I'm always flattered, the response is always the same. "Can I pickup my son from Pre K at noon? Can I take my daughter to swim lessons at 2pm on Thursday? Your answer is my answer. Thanks though." Of course, none of this means there isn't a boatload to learn from folks who do it differently. If anything, having the roadmap of people like Buffett, who dedicate their lives to certain causes(regardless of our opinions on their nobleness) make it somewhat easier for all those that follow.

Gregmal, Why don't you just tell it like it is. You bought it for the potential "Tech Lock and Pop" effect. LOL. Offering me a tech SPAQ IPO right now is like offering Johnny Depp some.... well, you know what Im getting at. Have another lined up for Friday.

35 @ 1.85

Finally got filled on a handful of MSGE $100 Feb calls.

I own a bit of LMT, but I've also always really liked Elbit Systems. A bit smaller and more specialized, but very well managed company.

Exactly. The same exact arguments about the Fed and government propping up the market, and things being ahead of themselves, was made by some, almost every week, from 2010-2013. Then it seemed they shut up. Now it seems theyre back. What you described above, happened. And anyone comparing S&P February to S&P today is missing quite a bit. Mainly, the dislocation with tech has gotten much larger, and second, probably most importantly, we have some significant clarity on where rates will be for the forteseeable future. That is always important. Go pull up the Buffett quotes about where stocks should be if rates are long term low.... The whole "S&P shouldn't be here" is just lazy and half assed.

In brief, I thinks its focus is in the right place(IT infrastructure), COVID may create M&A opportunities globally which is something they highlighted in the prospectus, and most importantly, you cant really lose money if you can get the IPO allocation.

Got a bit of ACEVU IPO

There's Tepper, and then theres everyone else. Ackman, when he's on his game, is arguably better than even Tepper. When he's off, you're probably better off setting your money on fire(possibly a tad harsh, but still reasonable assessment). Tepper's consistency is what sets him apart.

Interesting, but the more interesting tweet I found was a couple below posting a link to this. https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/files/pdfs/community-development/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf Guess what happened next in the 20's? But again, I can see how it is human and market nature to always assume the worst and then work backwards. As a historian myself, my application of understanding in situations like this, has always been to bet against the worst case scenario. If nothing else, you have the entire populations of politicians and bankers and experts working on your side. Similarly, how many people, even in a scenario like 2008, bet on failure and ended up losing? Getting squeezed out of shorts. Having insolvent counter parties? Seeing the Fed take actions that wiped out their bets? People like Peter Schiff who "called it" and still lost 80% that year. People who bought at the highs in 2007 and held tight in fact, did better than most of the doomsdayers. The other arm of analysis, is, how far should this drag things down. People have mentioned a liquidity crisis, but as long as the Fed is where it is, I dont see that. Further, company profitability is not being zapped to 0, so couple this with the insanely low rates, and that debt markets certainly arent "closing". Demand in fact, should increase for issues from qualified borrowers, especially if the bond guys deem an economic seize up to be temporary. Basically just a bridge loan. If you are a shitty E&P or mining company, sure, but I'd gander 95% of S&P companies would have zero problem issuing debt. So if we can eliminate liquidity induced plummet, then we have what? Just a recession to worry about. Is it possible we see Great Depression type stuff. I suppose, but probably not. Quantify what a temporary recession should do to the broader market... maybe comparable to something in the 70's or early 90s... but, most of those were greatly enhanced by energy/oil related issues and inflation, neither of which are really on the horizon here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets Which one prior haven't we recovered from? Most were really just temporary shocks, similar to this, and exacerbated by program trading. Further, at least here, plenty of investors prior to February, were cautious or paring down their exposure because of "valuation" concerns... in November, December, January, etc. We can call the recent rise a "blow off top", but I think thats silly considering that a 10% rise over a half year stretch isn't really a blow off top, nor did it take us anywhere that extreme compared to market levels back in 2018 or 2019. From late 2017 S&P ~2650. So from that point to today that "market" has blown off a whopping 5% annually? An 8% return would take us back to roughly were we were in January. Just because people have been crying about valuation for a long time doesnt mean it was true. Generally speaking, the "broader markets" are relatively efficient. I myself have had plenty of stocks where Ive pounded the table and said the valuation didn't make sense, but was ultimately just WRONG. Same can be said here. The biggest issue I see right now is that the smart guys cant really calculate/model the impacts here so they're just throwing everything away. Still yet, I haven't really seen any of the fear driven people say where exactly the market should crash to or what levels it should now trade at. In fact, dare I say the value guys now just sound like momentum investors because "the trend is down". Again indicative of the above, and that fear is blinding. Yea totally revisionist! But yea, as long as he keeps shifting gears...it's all good. Just go check all those early June posts attacking anyone who dared suggest anything different than what he was selling(such as the observation that the death rate had declined) on the "Death rate lagging 2 weeks"....After all, thats why he doesnt waste his time responding...LOL, every time! So yea, must be the bottle! Not that I have a Europe/Asia focused business as many here know. Hard to keep up with one of the few people here who has been caught red handed lying and caught red handed retroactively editing the content of his posts because he's always worried about "looking" right on an internet message board. Whatever....Trump's liberal alter ego, as Ive said before. Anyway....to muscleman's post RE:NYC antibodies, I have a contact who is a director at one of the mid sized Pharma companies(IE 10B+ in size). I had a lunch meeting with him about two weeks ago and something similar was brought up. That the internal research seemed to indicate this had largely "done its damage" in NY/NJ area, and was following the same path in the southern states. That there'd be flare ups, but that the worst was behind us in these areas. And that they concluded working towards a vaccine wasn't worthwhile(from an economic perspective), partially because of this. And that those "vaccine first movers" where largely subsidized by huge gobs of government money and incentives, as the "race for a vaccine" is very much a political trophy and "national bragging" right. Its certainly a shame some of these things have to intersect, but thats the world we live in.