Gregmal

First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps.

To me, your comment seems to imply that: A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps, B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or, C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered. Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation. So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks! B. But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then. Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb. However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash. I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day. People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100% Looks like the market starts to crack today. Is this the top? Is it going to resume higher? ::) I've been full cash since earlier this week. I haven't figured out if the market is going to puke-it-all-out or do a sector rotation at this moment. But I do think the COVID situation is improving too fast and the market is too optimistic that we'll at least get a severe pull back if not a bigger correction. I dont place too much weigh on the technical stuff, but also try to not completely ignore it. The opening reversal in momo names yesterday morning was as textbook an exhaustion puke as Ive ever seen. (example CRWD, although there were many, many others)

I suppose everything just goes over your head. You personally having been in an auto/aviation related accident has zero bearing on whether your thoughts prior where that it was dangerous or not dangerous. The numbers are the numbers. 200k deaths and 94% have underlying issues. For most people, it isn't a big deal. For certain groups it is. If you are 25 and get it, there isn't much to worry about. If you are 25 and happen to be one of the rare ones to die, that still doesnt change the fact that for that age group, most people will be fine. Older folks are super high risk, and Cain was in his mind 70's. But because he had downplayed it, the left "got him"....Nice! Maybe my perception of risk is skewed, or maybe I'm just not chicken little. Remember, there's many here still claiming the sky is falling. Its been falling since February and frankly, I'm shocked it hasn't hit the ground yet. Whatever are we going to do? Will it ever stop falling?

November IWM and QQQ puts

I am scared of flying. I go on an airplane and it does not have an incident. Whew, I got lucky! I am not scared of flying, I go on an airplane and it has an incident. Damn it, I should have listened to the people who were afraid of flying!

Speaking of AirBNB, word is that this was Ackman's SPAC target. Take it for what you will.

You have inadvertently clarified the major fault lines in this thread. If you downplay the risks of driving, it absolutely changes the risk level of driving. You drive a little faster, run yellow lights, text, drive after a beer. And risk doesn't rise linearly, so small behaviour changes dramatically increase your risk. And it doesn't just change your risk, you increase the risk for everyone else on the road. the estimated risk of a pedestrian being killed is approximately 9% if they are hit at a speed of 30 mph. The risk at an impact speed of 40 mph is much higher, at approximately 50%. The same thing happens when you downplay the risk of a pandemic. These are just faulty assumptions. I dont think driving is risky at all, and I dont do any of those things. I also dont think the pandemic is an extinction level event, but I wear a mask and keep my distance... What basis do you have to form the conclusion that someone who doesnt think driving is super dangerous has to be someone who is reckless/careless?

Ah yes, the "he downplayed the virus and died from it" subject. If I downplay the risks of driving my car, and then die in an auto accident, it doesnt change the reality of how safe/unsafe driving is. But it may be a "gotcha" point for people who dont like me or something. Anyway, Cain was what? 75?

They probably got their employees all excited by calling them back in...creating this big production, only to tell them to go home since it was only a one off gig for a "do as I say not as I do" politician and that normal people arent allowed to get haircuts yet....

https://www.yahoo.com/news/video-footage-shows-pelosi-san-201038226.html Nancy following the science! I'm sure they all still dine eloquently, while everyday citizens are told this type of stuff is "too dangerous"...

I'm not really buying as much as shifting or repositioning/recycling capital. Ive probably been a net seller/cash builder the past month.

Also swapped some RBACU into CFIIU. Big moves!

The global warming rabbit hole I think is much simpler. There is sufficient evidence that it is occurring. But there is zero credibility amongst the "experts"(again, primarily pure academics with zero real world or business experience) in terms of implementing an effective and efficient solution. Nor have they demonstrated the ability to ever determine accurate figures that correlate well to reducing the issue. Every "global warming" initiative to date, has more or less been a financial black hole and a get rich quick scheme for many friends and associates of the policy makers. So, at some point, its fair to ask them to put up or shut up, because nothing they've proposed to date has really been worth listening to. With COVID, its basically just scream loud from the mountain tops, cite scary charts and scream "200,000 DEATHS!"(I am guessing that milestone will be a major celebration point for some), but as was consistent with a lot of the financial work done as far back as March(IIRC Brooklyn Investor did a nice piece on this) it just doesnt translate to economic disaster or long term stock market disarray. So being bearish since March, and then wailing at people who didnt buy into the "extinction level event" narrative because of "bbbbut covid cases went up" and then saying things like "stonks" with sarcasm, may make one feel better about reading it totally wrong, but it totally misses the bigger financial picture; the financial picture is ultimately what I'd imagine most on these type of forums are interested in.

Small adds to TWTR and ARE

Hows this looking? Maybe a week's notice for everyone to get their last crack in at the politics section?

As I said, it doesnt matter what you have to say, as you have demonstrated over and over that you are a habitual liar. The strategy of never committing but always insinuating gives the worm wiggle room to say "see I was right" when it goes his way, but also, favorably to say "dont put words in my mouth, I never said that"...when it doesnt. Keep your head up Doc. Hopefully the skools reopen soon and you can get back to your pulpit with that PHD!

You can and you do! The last sentence says it all—easy to disprove just like everything else you post. Apparently in Feb I was “rooting for things to go lower” (which they kinda did in March) but then I also “don’t commit to anything”! Lol! Which is it? Having two contradictory beliefs in one’s head! My trades have ripped my face off apparently ! Apparently you can indeed make stuff up!! Often wrong, never in doubt! So it is not possible to "root for things to go lower", insinuate doom, and still avoid publicly committing to pretty much anything? Even such basic questions as "do you own this?"...well, Dr. Dalal, you are living proof that doing the above is certainly possible. What a poor attempt to wiggle and weasel your way out of that! Its all back in the posts, assuming they didnt magically get edited or deleted.

LOL it wasn't even my trade. The world doesnt revolve around me doctor. I'm happy to debate and bear the proxy positions for everyone in the world whom you disagree with or hold a grudge against, but most of these big issues for you just arent really that big of a deal to me. I just got a kick out of people who took the other side of muscleman's trade, or gave him a hard time, or did a little bit of both but in all likelihood didnt actually have the fortitude to put skin in the game despite such surefire conviction in him being wrong....still running their mouths and claiming they were right and he was wrong even after he's wrapped up a profitable trade...but go ahead, rewrite his investment thesis..."if USA doesnt have below 20,000 covid cases a day and there isn't indisputable, countrywide herd immunity, I will lose my money!".....or something like that right? Its funny, again being the total hypocrite you are...In February-March you were the cheerleader for "we're going lower because the numbers are going to be a lot worse in 30 days!"(unfortunately you got too emotionally attached and seemed to get caught up basking in the attention and now that same trade has ripped your face off)...now? HA! Oh yea, you "dont engage in short term speculating" and are condescending and petty when someone else basically puts on the same type of trade you felt special foreseeing in March! As I said earlier, you cant make this shit up.

Ahh, it's raining personal attacks! Nooooooo! Skool was good. Spent most of my time lying about being a doctor.

LOL! Your finest work yet. Mods, Personal attacks like this must be defended on this forum or he’ll get upset that you are infringing on his conservatism! Mr. “I was such a cool jock in grade school and now I spend my time bragging about how cool i was in skool and I troll on an investment forum...how times have changed”. You do you! It wasn't a personal attack, I was trying to comfort you! Whats your address? I'll Fedex you some tissues and a care package, Dr. Dalal. MODS!!! HALP!

poster (jokingly): Tsla is back to $400, is it a buying opportunity? Mr. I always have to be right: actually, its at $500 LOL, yea. Thats who we're dealing with. Although "happy to have them as follow investors" implies he/she/they are investing again! What changed? Actually, who cares. You'll never get an honest or a straight answer from he/she/they anyway. Its a shame bud, but you really do have quite the chip on your shoulder. I know it was devastating not being named captain of the debate team back in high school. And not losing one's virginity until your mid 20s definitely must have been tough. The lack of Esports right now must also be a tough pill to swallow... but it's ok. Let go of the animosity. Breathe a little bit. Stop being so bitter. Keep your head up! I promise it will get better....well, maybe not anytime soon in NY(....actually! I mean NYC, so as not to be "corrected" later)

There is only one definition of “herd immunity” and it is a simple mathematical calculation. Pretending that a decline in cases is due to your b.s. definition of herd immunity is wishful thinking. Herd immunity is calculated assuming the whole population is susceptible AND there are no other interventions. There is some population level immunity that is helping control cases in hard hit areas. But the low level of spread in places that haven’t been hard hit is pretty compelling evidence that partial immunity isn’t the sole or even predominant variable controlling spread. If you are investing with a thesis that we will reach herd immunity(which is what the guy laid out as his thesis), then you are free to wait til that date to start investing. I'd prefer to front run the trend. Which is what muscleman did. He was ambitious in predicting an exact date, so if one wants to nitpick, there is that. Same as if you are anticipating blowout earnings....invest ahead of it, or after? I mean get real dude. But otherwise, its just bizarre seeing him criticized by those who took the other side of the trade, or in most likely a case, didnt have the conviction to do anything.

Yes its common sense but for a long time, and still continuing, there seems to be this belief by some, that cases popping up signal the end of humanity. University of Alabama just saw 1200 cases from young college kids partying. Life will go on I am sure. All of this hinges upon a great deal of Trump hatred acting as fuel and a love of "look at me, im sooo smart!", but the truth is that things are gradually getting back to normal and should continue to do so, despite outbreaks popping up here and there. Well, back to normal except for NY...even NJ today just set in motion indoor dining. But its important not to associate "MOAR CASES" with the end of civilization or economic ruin in perpetuity. Nor would it be wise to miss the forest for the trees with an obsession over the exact definition of "herd immunity", when the general gist, is that Florida, for instance, saw cases decline nearly 80% from 10K-ish to now 2k-ish in a couple months, with the economy more or less open. That is likely a sign the worst is behind them. You can make the same applications to other areas. And also really shouldn't be shocked about universities opening and having outbreaks, given the variety of factors converging, with people from all over the country settling into one location and likely doing a bit of socializing....the kids will be fine.

Sold half of FIZZ position.

Ive been looking a little bit into this, and the general bull case as well. Not much to add other than maybe to add lumber to the list. Agree on copper. There's probably a few scenarios where you can do well even without major inflation...homebuilding will likely continue to see major tailwinds.